Watch 'Surviving the Storm' Wednesday, April 9 at 8 p.m. on NBC! This is an all-new weather special and includes Gary Lezak's Spring forecast!
So far April of 2008 has gotten off to a pretty cool start. Thru the first 5 days of the month the departure from average stands at -4.5 degrees. With more cool weather in the forecast this week the number will likely fall even farther below average. So far this month may actually feel 'warm' if you compare it to just one year ago. From April 5-13, 2007 the departure from average was -19.6 degrees! All eight of the days during this stretch had a high temperature in the 30s or 40s! And many of you remember the six day stretch with temperatures of 27 degrees or colder at night! This is a picture that I took on the morning of April 8 of ice covering the J.C. Nichols fountain by the Plaza. The low temperature that morning was a record breaking 20 degrees! This is really an amazing picture!
Now onto the current and future setup...
Overall the weekend was pretty quite in Kansas City with just a couple of rumbles of thunder and an isolated shower today. Rain totals were a trace at both KCI and the Downtown Airport. And around 0.10" or a little more well northeast of Kansas City. Moving into tonight skies will clear across the region and we are looking for pretty chilly temperatures with lows in the upper 30s.
The focus for early this week will be on the Monday Night and Tuesday time frame. Low pressure will push into the Plains Monday Night and a warm front extending from the low will position itself south of Kansas City. A good moisture transport over this front will quickly develop showers and thunderstorms Monday Night and continue into Tuesday. Rain totals are starting to look fairly impressive for this system. The model average for the GFS, NAM, and in-house model are between 1.00-1.50" for a good part of the area. These totals will greatly depend on where the cluster/group of thunderstorms track, but the models have been pretty consistent with the rainfall forecast for the past couple of days. Here are a couple of the visuals associated with the rainfall forecast.
The first map is from the 18Z NAM.
Now a look at a more specific rainfall forecast from our in-house model. Use this as a guidance and we'll see which way the totals trend heading into Monday. By no means are these numbers set in stone, but I wanted to give everyone an idea of how widespread this rain could be.
That is the rain aspect of this storm. Many have asked about the severe weather threat. Right now I feel that if there is anything severe, it would be the possibility of hail. The surface low and warm front should stay to the south of KC. But the warm front may push into the southern part of the viewing area. This would lead to temperatures pushing into the 60s or maybe even 70s on Tuesday. I think the best chance for heavy rain will be to the north of the warm front, and better chances for severe weather will be near and south of the warm front.
If you are heading to the Royals home opener on Tuesday I would expect rain/showers in the morning, showers tapering to drizzle in the afternoon, and then breezy and cool conditions by late afternoon. I think they will get the game in, but it may be damp around first pitch. The steady/heavy rain should shift east by 3pm. Temperatures by gametime will be around 50 degrees...it will be quite cool!
Needless to say, this may be the time to apply some fertilizer to your lawn since this will be a rain that should last for a decent length of time.
Another low will track to our south on Thursday/Friday. The rain chance with this late week storm stands at 60%. On the backside of this storm some very chilly air will drop into the region. If moisture is still around...a few snowflakes might be seen in or close to the viewing area. A big if at this point, but the possibility is there!
For more information on the rain and the forecast tune into NBC Action News weekdays from 5-7am and at 5, 6, & 10pm!
Jeremy