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I am soo ready for some real severe weather. If I am not mistaking..we have yet to be issued under a Tornado Watch this season.

1.15" 3 miles north of Odessa.

Thanks,
Scott

Hey NBC Action Weather Team!!

First of all, WAY TO GO KU!

I am Elizabeth...I love the weather and would love to know more about it! I am a long time reader of the blog, but never really commented for fear of asking a silly weather question! Well, I have one that I really want to know!! I was enjoying the spring rain last night and heard lots of thunder. So, here goes my silly question...

Does the method of counting the seconds between the lighting and thunder REALLY predict how far away the storm is??

Elizabeth
Lee's Summit, MO

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Elizabeth,

No stupid questions in here, and this is a good one.  Every 5 seconds is ONE mile.  So, if you see lightning and then count to 10 before you hear the thunder, then it is two miles away. I was doing that last night, and it allows you to know if it is moving towards you or farther away.

Welcome to the blog!

Gary

Followed some severe weather in the DFW area last week while there, not ready to have to deal with that here yet.  When are the trees going to green up?  They seem late this year.

I received 0.85 inches in western KCK.

Welcome back Gary from the home of the NCAA Champions, KU!!!  NW Lawrence has picked up 1.23" since we returned home from the Mass Street celebration around 1:00 AM.

Gary, we're barely into our third week of spring so the ups and downs are to be expected. The 7-day is'nt all that bad, but I would love to bid farewell to the 40's for highs very soon! What are your thoughts as we move further into spring? Hopefully more 60's and 70's...

SO COLD at the Royals game today!

1.34" at the fort today.

1.125 inches here near Smithville.  Good job with the forecast!

...welcome back gary....ft. lauderdale is a fine place...been there many a time.

i think that the warm weather may have rubbed off on you...i think 72 is a little optimistic.  i guess it all depends on the location of the rain shield on wednesday...the rain cooled air should dam the warm front from coming further north-like it has been doing so far this spring.  we will see i suppose.  because of this, im not completely sold on the prospects of severe weather for the metro.  even the gfs has the squall line getting its act together after kc...right after.  so it would seem warrensburg, sedalia and points sw may get closer to the action, but it may not get its act together in time.  clouds will be a limiting factor as well...i am patiently waiting for the right setup, but i dont think its here yet....

murph

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Murph,

I hope you are right, and maybe so, but I have a feeling that we firmly reach the warm sector by evening.

Gary

will this next system be a big rain-maker?

Gary,

Your Thursday forecast on the 7 day planner had me make a few calls if you can catch a subtle hint... No doubt let us know what the trends are for this system and what your gut feeling says and hopefully by tomorrow evening we have a really good idea of what may be happening.

JB

1.23 in SE Lee's Summit just like Kristy.


I'm glad we got a decent rain fall today we needed it. GO ROYALS!!! beat those yankees

MY INTERVIEW WITH THE NWS ABOUT THURSDAY STORM

Good Evening Everybody!

Thursday's storm looks to be a tricky one.  I just spoke to the NWS a few minutes ago about the severe weather possibilities.  One thing we talked about was that wind speeds aloft on Thursday will be between 110-150mph, which is off the charts and will prevent and severe weather from happening.  But he said that if the sun comes out at all on Thursday, then "you can count on tornado watches flying" and the chance of many supercell thunderstorms.  He also told me other things that have to happen for a outbreak to happen here in KC.  The dewpoints must rise a good 25-30 degrees by Thursday and the warm front must make it north of Kansas City, and like I said before, the sun must come out for a while to heat up the atmosphere.  He talked to me about the models and how some of them are saying it will stay overcast and we will have very little to no severe weather, and some are saying we get a few hours of sunshine, and "extremely violent" thunderstorms will take over the area by evening.

I also asked him about the severe weather risk, and he told me that his own feeling is that IF the stormy models are correct, the NWS in OK will move the moderate risk into KC, and possibly a high risk close by.  If those models do NOT continue to trend in that direction, then we will stay in a slight risk.  

It's going to be fun to track this storm.  I want some nice action around here, but I don't want peoples lives to be damaged at the same time.  I go both ways with this thing.  Hope this helps some of you!

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Jacob,

Yes, the BIG question will be morning thunderstorms and whether we clear out afterwards?

Gary

Jhonson County Executive Airport got about 1.55" of rain last I cheked. There is a drainage pipe at my son's school that is blocked up and there is about a foot deep of water puddle around it! I didn't think that coould happen otherwise the ground was squishyy and splashy. Byan.

Anybody out there tonight?  I know Gary is testing out new technology with Jeff tonight, but is anybody else there?  LOL.

Here is the outlook for severe weather as of RIGHT NOW.  Like I said above, the bottom part of this outlook may include KC sometime tomorrow.  Read below.


DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0242 AM CDT TUE APR 08 2008
 
  VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH
  INTO PORTIONS OF MO/IL/KY...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND
  MISSISSIPPI/OHIO RIVER VALLEYS...
 
  ...ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS...
  WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
  THE ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF MO/IL/IND THURSDAY AND
  THURSDAY NIGHT...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS/LARGE HAIL AND
  TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG/LONG-TRACKED. LATEST 00Z
  BASED MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY CONVERGE ON THE DETAILS
  OF THE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACROSS THE NATIONS MID SECTION ON
  THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY REFLECTED IN DEEPER ECMWF/GFS SOLUTIONS. WHILE
  THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
  PLAINS...THE CORRESPONDING SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY
  DEEPEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CORNBELT.
 
  STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
  PORTIONS OF OK/TX INTO MO/KS/AR. WHILE THIS EXPECTED ACTIVITY
  COMPLICATES THE MESOSCALE DETAILS THIS FAR OUT...ADDITIONAL SURFACE
  BASED/SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE PRE-COLD FRONTAL
  WARM SECTOR ACROSS FAR EASTERN OK/ARKLATEX VICINITY AS THE BOUNDARY
  LAYER DESTABILIZES BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO
  LIFT NORTHWARD FROM OK/AR INTO THE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE
  DAY...RAPID DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR DURING THE
  AFTERNOON/EVENING NORTHWARD ACROSS MO/IL/IND. VERY STRONG
  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERE...WITH 100+
  KT AT 500 MB AND 50-70 KT AT 850 MB...WILL FAVOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
  AND THE EVOLUTION OF QUASI-LINEAR BOW ECHOES ACROSS A BROAD PORTION
  OF THE ARKLATEX/MID SOUTH NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO
  VALLEYS. EITHER WITH QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OR THE EVENTUAL
  DEVELOPMENT OF LEWPS...A HIGH SRH ENVIRONMENT AND MOIST BOUNDARY
  LAYER WILL SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR TORNADOES...SOME OF WHICH
  COULD BE STRONG/LONG TRACKED. OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS
  AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY.

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Jacob,

As I said, "it should open your eyes".  This is a very scary set up.  We will know a lot more by Wednesday.

Gary

This is incredible, 18 comments and not a mention of the word S%$#. Groundbreaking stuff bloggers!

THIS WILL SCARE YOU A LOT!!!  

http://www.accuweather.com/news-blogs.asp?partner=accuweather&blog=community

Jacob,

While I think this forum is one of many great avenues for discussion amongst KC weather enthusiasts, I certainly don't have time to keep up with them -- let alone my own! Apparently word travels quickly in KC, and I was a bit upset to get a third hand email from a colleague asking me to check out this blog regarding a "NWS Interview". Since I had no way to reach you, I apologize for having to sign-on and use this forum, especially with other duties at hand. There are a number of things in our phone discussion that were either grossly taken out of context, incorrectly quoted, and not meteorologically sound. I was impressed to talk with a high school student that has some strong aspirations with meteorology (I think you were at one of our spotter talks if I recall??) and that's a great passion to have! However, when you interview someone, it's important to tell them you're interviewing them and ask permission to publish the discussion. It's also important to clearly state factual information and ask for clarification if necessary. I'd hate to see someone with a bright future be led astray by a few journalistic mistakes. Please feel free to call me if you'd like to discuss this further.

What Thursday's severe weather potential serves at this point is a great reminder for all of us that we've been very quiet compared to our southern neighbors. Hopefully everyone took advantage of last month's Severe Weather Awareness Week and the great information presented by Gary and the other KC TV meteorologists to develop safety plans, know how to receive critical weather information, and know what to do when severe weather threatens. Remember that not everyone loves severe weather -- the word severe is important. Speculation can lead to fear for many, so it's best to be prepared, stay informed, and hope for the best!

Best Wishes,
Evan

PS Gary, welcome back from FLL! Should have sent you over to my folks for dinner if I knew you were headed down there. We'll talk to you shortly.

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Evan,

Thanks!  And, there were tornado warnings in Broward county with a slow moving/backbuilding supercell 15 miles from where I was located.  That evening we had ove 2 inches of rain as a disturbance came in from the Keys.  Very exciting weather, and I didn't have to come to work.

Anyway,  Jacob will understand what you are saying.  Let's just discuss this very serious situation developing across the region on Wednesday.  The new NAM is quite impressive with severe potential near us.  I am waiting until Wednesday to really analyze this threat.

Gary

1.1" rain total from my guage in Gardner (may be a little late, I realize).  I'm thankful to finally get a nice soaking rain!  Keep it coming!

Terry

------------------------

Terry,

More is on the way Thursday.

Gary

Good Evening Gary:

Just wanted to add another blogger rainfall total for the 10PM newscast, this time from 130th and State Avenue in Western KCK. I recieved 1.06 inches in the old rain gauge. Looking forward to the warmer temps we are expecting on Thursday. To me it still looks like it is going to be a struggle for those of us in the greater Kansas City area to see Severe weather on Thursday as we have a race against clouds and sunshine. Might not have enough time to get that unstable. I'll watch at 10 tonight to see your thoughts, and look forward to a new blog tomorrow regarding the latest.

Thanks Gary!

Bryan

Sorry I'm running late. Today was a *long* day away from home. Anyhow, on top of the 1.92" Emma, MO received by 7:45 this morning, we picked up another .18" for a grand total of 2.10".

Walter Snyder

Well, I didn't really get much from Jacob's "interview" so I was surprised to see anyone from the NWS post a retraction, or whatever that was. What were the "several things" that were "grossly taken out of context, incorrectly quoted, and not meteorologically sound"?

Perhaps Gary should take down Jacob's post. Maybe this blog should be moderated a bit more closely.

This is why I love this blog everyone gives there own opinions and you learn alot from this weatherwise, regardless if we get severe weather or not it looks like a nice heavy rain in parts of the area again,take care Gary I'll be watching your forecast at 10pm,and welcome back from Florida,you were supposet to bring the warm air back with you .

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I did bring it back.  But, it was lost at the airport. They said it will be brough to us next week.

Gary

aimcbt, I think they would have to hire a person strictly to monitor the blog! LOL. It gets so busy on here during active weather, and they are really busy with forecasting.
Guess we all just have to learn from our mistakes.
It is cool to see a NWS meteorologist on here as well, although it may not have been for the greatest intentions.
It is good to have variety.

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Yes, and with us working so long on our special and getting ready for our HD graphics debuting Wednesday night, we haven't had the usual attention on our blog.

Gary

Also,one more thing storms are rocking pretty good in central tx along that front that is forecasted to move north toward our area on thursday some discreete supercells with tornado warnings are occuring down north of austin.

HD graphics? Wow! Can't wait.

Hello Gary,

Total rainfall accumulation for East Lawrence from my backyard measured 1.18" of rain for today. 0.02" of this rain was right before midnight. Good soaking rain.

Ray from Lawrence

Gary

WOW!

I am really trying to hold myself down. I completely agree with your thoughts/concerns on jumping on the severe weather threat for this area until tomorrow, but as it stands right now.......WOW.....I am not just talking about the KC metro area...but just as far as ariel coverage goes, this system looks like a monster for sure.

While Wednesday holds some real potential down south in OK/TX.....Thursday looks like the real show to me. Assuming the model forecasts continue to look as they do now, I would be very surprised if SPC did not issue a HIGH RISK on the Day 2, because if this situation doesn't warrant it I don't know what would.

If the NAM/GFS verify, we're talking about a persistent and large area of 50-70 kt 850 mb winds over an unstable, uncapped warm sector throughout the entire day! I can think of only one tornado outbreak case I've examined that exhibited this areal magnitude of extreme low-level shear superimposed over what is likely to be 1000-3000 CAPE. Of course this system has a little ways to go yet before verifying and I can't see any way the situation can get any more ridiculous than this, as there's not really anywhere to go but downhill at this point, so perhaps the next model run or two will back off a bit on the insanity.

As things stand right now, however, April 3-4, 1974 is probably the closest comparison I can come up. Although I haven't had the chance to make a detailed comparison, a quick glance shows interesting similarities between archived maps for 00Z 4 April 1974 and this morning's NAM forecast for Thursday evening.

Often times these "powerhouse" storms tend to slow down on subsequent model runs. If this storm slows down any further and we get adequate clearing on thursday afternoon, look out. I hate to stir up the pot, but man, this looks for real doesnt it?

------------------

They will be waiting to issue the high risk.  There are still some questions with a lack of capping, and so many thunderstorms.  But, the flow aloft is so powerful, that the atmosphere would recover quite rapidly near the dry line.

Gary

I did bring it back.  But, it was lost at the airport. They said it will be brough to us next week.

Gary

*******************************************************
LOL, Gary!  As an employee of an airline at KCI, I've seen my fair share of warm weather sent to Phoenix by mistake!  It always comes back to KCI. Eventually, LOL! (It should have been in your carry-on, Gary!)
It seems as of 1am, the SPC follows the thinking of murph in the placement of the major severe. However, I am more impressed this imminent event was prognosticated more than a week ago. The LRC has me looking at model output over 3 days out again, but as a rule it has always been 90% garbage to me. Your last entry has me thinking whether that front will push enough north to get KC in the mix. From my experience in KC, many times being near the initialization of convection with the "off- the- hook" parameters Adam Penny speaks of can spell trouble. I think I'm going to have to cheat and wait until tomorrow afternoon's runs, LOL!  

-----------------------

Yes, let's wait and see.  If the surface low tracks to our west, the 60+ dewpoints will make it to Kansas City by 6 PM Thursday.   The SPC and many others often underestimate this moisture return and the warm sector shifting northwest a bit.  This is a very strong surface low.  But, it has to track near Topeka, west of KC for us to destablize.  I still think it will.

And, I didn't carry on, so the warm air will come in a package early next week. 

Gary 

Wow, it looks like it might get bumpy... but we still have another day to look at the situation, man the models look intense right now but it is still the imaginings of a computer at this point!!

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Yes, Nick.  I will do my next blog as the new data comes out around 9 AM.

Gary

Now you know more about it (severe weather), tell us about it. . . . here is my proof. . . . . . From Byan. . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

Jacob,

As I said, "it should open your eyes".  This is a very scary set up.  We will know a lot more by Wednesday.

Gary

-----------------------

We will have our thoughts on this set up by around 9 AM.

Gary

North 18th and State Ave (near) in KCK:  Storm total of 1.22 inches.  This brought me to about 10 and a third inches of precipitation for this calender year to date.

Hard to believe that this was the anniversary of last years April Freeze.  Remember how beautiful our <a href="http://www.hamonslandscaping.com" target="_blank" title="http://www.hamonslandscaping.com">landscaping in Kansas City</a> looked before it happened and how sad it looked after it happened?

Tulips/Daffodils/Hyacinths won't be hurt by the frost/freez at all.  If they are in full bloom (most aren't) then there bloom life may be shortened.  However, if it is just a bud everything will be just fine.

As far as the roses -- One key is to protect them during the winter and not to uncover them until after any chance of freeze --- I usually use 4/15 a s a general rule unless Gary or Jeremy gives a hint otherwise.  

When winter arrives --wait for a few hard freezes and then cover the entire plant with a  mound of 6 - 12" of soil or mulch.  I cut the bottoms off of 5 gallon nursery pots -- put over the plant -- and fill with mulch.  Then the key is to not take this mulch off until at least 4/15.  In the winter it protects the plant from the extreme cold and in the spring it moderates the temperature swings the bush goes through in our up and down springs.  This will dramatically help your rose survival rates.