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Morning freeze, Chillicothe visit, & our next storm

Good morning bloggers,

We have had a hard freeze in many locations this morning.  Tempereatures did drop into the 20s, with the 28 degrees as the official low at KCI.  A warming trend will now begin, but for how long?  Another storm is already approaching.  Look at the two maps below:

The above map is the 500 mb forecast valid at 1 AM Tuesday morning (06z).  There is a ridge aloft moving across the plains tonight and Tuesday.  This is the opposite of an upper level trough, which you can see over the eastern United States and moving across the western part of North America.  This ridge will provide us with three dry days, today through Wednesday.  Sunday's snow flurries made it our 8th day in a row with some type of precipitation in Kansas City.  Our next storm is looking wetter, but where will it track?  The trough, in the west swings in and forms into an upper low, which then slowly moves across the plains.  At the same time, an even stronger jet is forecast to dive down the west coast later this week.  This second storm may be much larger scale than the end of the week storm.

There are many uncertainties with this end of the week storm. 

  • #1:  Will it close off into the slow moving upper low like the models are forecasting?  Most storm systems, this year, have done the slide by and closed off southeast of us.  If the slide by happens, then we would be in the cold air and it would not produce the amounts predicted below. 
  • #2:  Where will the storm track? 
  • #3:  How much moisture will be pulled in from the Gulf of Mexico? 
  • #4:  Another warm front is going to set up, will it again be south of us placing us into the colder air just like the past few storm systems? 

Here is the rainfall forecast from the 1 AM run of the GFS model.  We will be tracking these developments on our newscasts today and tonight.  It is severe weather season and there will likely be some severe weather with this storm system, but the best chance appears to be south of our local area once again.

I had a great time in Chillicothe on Saturday.  The town of around 10,000 people is beautiful with picturesque murals painted all over town.  We went there to help sell some weather radios and a lot of people stopped by.  Here are some of the pictures: 

Stormy the weather dog just sat on the table and met all of her fans.  She would occasionally go out and do some tricks for the kids.

 

 

Once again, thank you Chillicothe!  Have a great day everyone, and we will update the blog later today with the trends in the models.

Gary

Published Sunday, April 13, 2008 7:54 PM by glezak

Comments

 

MikeTrainor1 said:

lol.... is wearing a "dog collar" a new fashion trend??? i've heard of fur collars before, but uh.... ;-)
April 14, 2008 6:45 AM
 

VdoManZ said:

wow! HARD freeeze this morning in Lee's Summit.... Frost on the ground and it's 28 degrees!
April 14, 2008 7:07 AM
 

MrSteve said:

Having been some days in preparation
A splendid time is guaranteed for all
And today Stormy the Dog is topping the bill

Looks like everyone had a good time.

-------------------

Thanks, and Stormy did a good job with her tricks too.

Gary

April 14, 2008 7:11 AM
 

Brocksmama said:

Great pictures of you and Stormy!  Last time I was in Chillicothe was when we got Brock the psycho Boston!  Finally got myself a weather radio, can't wait for the next exciting round of rain/storms!
April 14, 2008 7:32 AM
 

WeatherFreak said:

"It is severe weather season and there will likely be some severe weather with this storm system, but the best chance appears to be south of our local area once again."

Looks like this spring's weather pattern is setting up very much like last spring... when all the strong storm systems went south and we were stuck in the cooler Pacific flow.  

Before last spring, I couldn't remember a time when we were in mid-April and had such a slow start to the severe storms to that point.  Turns out, we hardly had any severe weather at all last spring.  This spring seems to be setting up the same way.  

I can recall several years in a row where we would have severe thunderstorm warnings on almost a nightly basis.  To be under a Severe Thunderstorm/Tornado Watch was the norm... not the exception.  The past two springs have been quite the opposite.  

-------------------

Not really!   Last year had a big jump start to the season and then backed off a bit.  This year has been too cool for our local area, thus far, but this same pattern will be producing in the coming weeks.  And, April usually only has a few severe weather days.  Our active months are May and June.  The weather pattern we are in now is so different than last year.  This is a wet pattern, whereas last year we struggled to have significant widespread rainfall.

Gary

April 14, 2008 8:16 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Wow! Isn't stormy a little to big,heavy to have a piggy back ride? :)

---------------

She is just the right weight.  Stormy weighs around 39 lbs. 

Gary

April 14, 2008 9:02 AM
 

marlina10 said:

Great pictures! I hope a lot of people took the opportunity to buy weather radios, I'm a big believer in them! I'm excited that it will actually stay warm for the weekend, for once.
April 14, 2008 9:32 AM
 

Awtherfrd said:

So what are the chances we will not see another freeze this spring? I would like to start some planting in my new backyard and would hate to see another freeze.
April 14, 2008 10:01 AM
 

RDub said:

You can probably not worry about cold unless you are planting summer plants (like tomatoes or basil). The big issue for planting now is wet soil. It's bad for the soil to till wet ground, and plants don't really like being set into wet, cool clay.

---------------------

There is still a chance of another freeze.  A very cold air mass if forecast to form over Canada this week.  Let's see how this evolves.

Gary

April 14, 2008 10:11 AM
 

CentralOP2 said:

RDub,
My low was 24F this morning.
You could definitely see where the heat island was this morning considering Lawrence was 23F for the low and the Downtown Airport was 30-31F.
April 14, 2008 10:16 AM
 

boootz said:

I bought a Weather Radio and I am really quite disappointed, apparently north of Leavenworth we do not have a signal to pick up , or it is operator error.

--------------

I am not sure.  If anyone else has any ideas let us know.

Gary

April 14, 2008 10:30 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Good pic's Gary!! I want to buy a weather radio but we do not have a tower here in Linn County...so should I get one? Some people here in town have weather radio's and they have their's programmed for the counties around them...like Bourbon and Franklin...then when it sounds for those counties they are aware something is coming or is around them. What do you think of that? I guess it is better than nothing in the middle of the night. Have a great day.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

--------------

Monica,

As long as you can get reception, a weather radio is a must for every household.  Programming for the counties around you is not a bad idea at all.

Gary

April 14, 2008 10:39 AM
 

MikeB said:

26 and light frost south of Pleasant Hill. Let's hope the Japanese maple didn't suffer any additional damage as last year's late freeze decimated it.

Looking great, Gary! How are the workouts coming?

Also, can you make any general observations about the coming months and summer? Do you think we'll be cooler than usual?

Mike

----------------

Mike,

I lean strongly in the cooler and wetter forecast through the summer.

Gary

April 14, 2008 11:05 AM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

I hear that you recently put out a generalized spring forecast, but are you going to put out another detailed, 45-day forecast based on your cycling weather theory or have you discontinued those?
April 14, 2008 11:53 AM
 

RDub said:

Lawrence's lows are always lower than surrounding areas because the airport is in the river valley.

28 at my house in OP.
April 14, 2008 11:55 AM
 

RDub said:

The chance of another freeze is why you can't plant basil or tomatoes or other summer plants yet. But even if we do get one (or even two) more nights below freezing, there are plenty of plants that can handle that.
April 14, 2008 12:00 PM
 

radman22 said:

I see you got a nice comment in the letters  (metro section) of the KC Star.    Its nice to get some positive input once and awhile.    You should check it out, it will make your day.    I think his letter speaks for alot of us.  

Great Job!!!!
Joe

-------------

Joe,

I haven't looked in the letters to the editor section in a long time.  Wow, that is a good one!  No, a great one!  It has made my day.  Now, I better get the forecast right!

Gary

April 14, 2008 12:39 PM
 

BigJG said:

This is in response to the person who lives north of Leavenworth and doesn't pick up any reception on the weather radio.  I have my radio by a window and it gets great reception. I also keep it on the top most floor of my house.  The radio should pick up reception on channel 7, and even other channels as I am able to do on mine.  The link below is from the NWS in Pleasant Hill and shows where the repeaters are located and how far their signal strength reaches.  Try the radio on channel 7 first.  Leavenworth county is one of the counties that the office in P.H. is responsible for.  If the radio is an older type, the frequency for the channel is 162.55MHz.  I hope this helps.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/eax/?n=nwr
April 14, 2008 12:44 PM
 

jacob said:

Hey Gary!

Do you know when the great new graphics will be on the website?

Also, how is the late week storm looking?  Still a bunch of rain?  

Have a wonderful day!

Jacob

-------------

Jacob,

Or snow?  The new graphics will be on the web within a week or two.

Gary

April 14, 2008 1:54 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Well, Well, well the 12 Z run fits a lot better, it stays "connected" right until it passes us then it cuts-off and gets Hooked on the Mississippi River, and dumps, still could get a good "splash" out of it though. As each week goes along it looks more and more apparent that it is going to be a lonnnnnnnnnng spring for almost the entire Mississippi River area.  Well a clear nice day today, weird seeing the trees still so bare.
April 14, 2008 2:31 PM
 

frigate said:

I'm with you Nick, its been years since I've seen the tree's and flowers being so far behind, very sad. Of course its because of this horrible cold spring. At this rate it may be the middle of May before things look normal. With the way things are going, I am worried about another killing freeze maybe late April or early May. Gary do you have any thoughts on this possibility?  
April 14, 2008 3:04 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Gary,
My mom pointed out that letter to the editor tin the KC Star today.  Very nice letter!

The blossoms on our Cleveland Select tree seemed to come thru the cold weather last night OK.  Hopefully, our peony bushes fared as well.

Kristi
April 14, 2008 3:32 PM
 

WinterTracker said:

I AM SO HAPPY!! Last night's freeze didn't do ANY damage to any of our plants! This week will probably send the plants into a growing spree. A lot of plants will probably be blooming later this week.
April 14, 2008 4:03 PM
 

RDub said:

One night in the mid to upper 20s is not a big deal to spring plants. During last year's freeze, everything was fine after the first two nights when the lows were around 28. It was the lows near 20 and in the upper teens that did the damage.
April 14, 2008 4:17 PM
 

chfs327 said:

do the chickens ahve large talons


Anyway we will have some flooding Thursday
April 14, 2008 4:35 PM
 

Eswar said:

It looks like the 540 line passes through on the 84hr frame.  Is it possible that we will see a few flakes, or will it be all rain since it is mid April?

Thanks, Eswar

-------------

Eswar,

Here we go again.  Well, let's wait until tomorrow and see how this is trending.  This is one of our classic "slide by" storm systems.

Gary

April 14, 2008 5:08 PM
 

spooky said:

Yeah, chfs327, probably an ice storm too.
April 14, 2008 5:10 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

there has been another 'cold, damp' setup showing up consistently on the gfs for a while, since before our last storm.  all i can say is that given the way this spring has gone i would rule nothing out at this time.  

24.1 degrees this morning....
April 14, 2008 6:01 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I just want the weather to warm up and stay that way.  The up and down is not good on the body.  Plus I am sick of cool weather.

Kristi
April 14, 2008 6:04 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

on a separate note, i think your forecast high temps for midweek are a wee bit too high.  especially wednesday...although i would welcome those temps, i see only one day in the 70's(wed), and it being low-mid 70s at best.  i see thursday being cooler, too...like in the 50's.

------------------

Murph,

I have 49 for a high on Thursday.  I just didn't change the 7 day online as we are in the process of putting our new graphics.  I think it is updated now.  So, you don't see 76 degrees on Wednesday?

Gary

April 14, 2008 6:05 PM
 

Greg said:

SNOW! How much can we expect on thursday into friday? I think I may hurl now because I actually let myself type the word! Today was absotively beautiful hope all enjoyed. (Disclaimer, the first sentence in this entry was purely sarcastic)
April 14, 2008 7:27 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

if it were to do anything close, the timing would be late thursday evening to early friday morning.  however, the cold air doesnt look too impressive on the 18z...its still cold enough, but not as deep as the last go around...so expect a shorter duration IF anything happens at all.

-------------

Realistically, with a saturated airmass we will have a hard time producing snow with Thursday evenings setup.  The thickness would have to be closer to 534 or lower. So, a cold rain with a snowflake mixed in is all I am expecting, unless it gets a bit deeper.

Gary

April 14, 2008 7:43 PM
 

Matt P said:

Bootz, in regards to your question about the radio reception, I thought there was some info with the Midland radios in case you can't find a signal.  Also, if you lookat the Midland web site, there is some more info for this type of situation.  Best of luck, and I hope you never need it.
April 14, 2008 8:02 PM
 

Greg said:

pvt_murphy, thanks, I hope you read my disclaimer though...
April 14, 2008 8:22 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

Good Evening Gary,

Currently sitting under clear skies with a temp of 37 degrees. Winds are generally calm.  And the pressure is 29.35".

Today was a very nice day! The high got all the way up to 72degrees! The wind was generally calm with breezes out of the NNW. Todays low was 27 degrees. What a difference! I actually went fishing for an hour after work this evening and it didnt feel too bad.

Randy in very pleasant at the moment Chillicothe.

April 14, 2008 9:26 PM
 

stjoelawyer said:

the brisk wind and 13 rs of sun will dry things tues and wed before more rain comes people underesteminate the winds drying out things even at 55-68 tomarrow and 60 -74 on wed.,  still very little in greening on the trees but the grass is going need to mow bad..... we need to pop up into the 72-77 range nute 55-59 for 2-3 days to get things fired up but the sun's really helping my disposition.....GOD BLESS  24.2 this am at my house good freeze and frost but nothing to kill. lilacs are not even out yet.....
April 14, 2008 9:44 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

Why are the ob stations in eastern KS reporting SMOKE and HAZE right now???
Are they burning the Flint Hills again?

The current Observations for Topeka Forbes Field:
48F
Smoke
Visibility 4 miles
Wind SE 9mph
April 14, 2008 9:49 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

Manhattan, KS

temp 49F
dewpoint 26F
VISIBILITY: 2.5 miles
Fair with Haze
April 14, 2008 9:52 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

A pretty interesting write-up by the EAX office about why, on such a clear day, the radar was NOT clear today:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=eax&storyid=14153&source=0

-----------------

I was wondering as well.  Thanks for the information.  If it wasn't so clear today I would have tried to figure it out.  I was just working so hard on our new computers.

Gary

April 14, 2008 10:05 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Notes,

I saw the same thing earlier!
April 14, 2008 10:20 PM
 

CentralOP2 said:

NotesInThe Margin,
Obviously some burning is still going on if the visibility is reduced to less than 4 miles at both Topeka and Manhattan!
Hopefully the weather won't be too windy tomorrow!!!
April 14, 2008 10:25 PM
 

Randy Cooper said:

i was hoping you'd mention me, lol. you didnt at 5 or 6 but thats ok.

----------------

Randy,

I got you in at 10.  They only give me so much time!  I probably should have posted the picture of you, me and Stormy!  That is a good one.

Have a great night!!! I am sorry I made you wait until 10 PM.  I really had a great time up in Chillicothe visiting everyone.

Gary

April 14, 2008 10:31 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

I thought I saw some spots near the area on the regional radar, but it was so clear I did not even think to take a closer look!!!!
Oh, and yes it looked like Gary and Stormy had a good time in Chillicothe, Interesting footage of the buildings there!
One thing about this next set-up that I think is impressive is on Wed. morning the NAM is advertising near 80 m.p.h. winds at just 5000 feet off the surface, look like we will need to hold on to our hats tomorrow through Wed. midday.  
Also back to the late blooming of the trees, one other thing that makes it look so surreal is not only are the trees still so bare, but they are so damaged by the ice storm it really makes for a stark visual that seems to punctuate the harsh long winter that seems to want to hang on into the spring. In heavily wooded areas there are still a tree or two that are completely uprooted and just lying there, I know this has been true for months now, but sometimes when you pause to look at and think about it you really realize the scope of that natural event and how massive it was. Especially now since everybody's pretty much back to our normal pace and have been for a long time that you almost forget that all around us is the aftermath of a natural disaster just hanging there in the trees. Well a bit of a ramble tonight!;)
Good night!

---------------------

Nick,

Yes, it is going to get windy!

Gary

April 15, 2008 12:20 AM
 

sertorius said:

Gary:

Good warmish morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 37 degrees and the wind is already beginning to pick up here-but man, it is pretty nice out this morning!!!

Wow-an entry two days in a row-like Randy Quaid said in Independence Day-hello boys, I'm back......

Not to go away from my mantra, a couple of random musings this morning-hope they make some sense!!!

1. Latest surface observations already show some 36 MPH wind gusts at Hays, Kansas this morning. The Kansas song people of South Wind will really ring true today!!!!!

2. The storm later this week will be interesting to follow and we are already being affected by it with the wind the next 48 hours. The GFS does not close off the Upper Level Low as it did on earlier runs but still looks to give us some decent rain. Still so many runs to go but it looks safe to say that we are going to have another decent weather maker later this week. I would love to get another 1/2 inch of rain and it does not seem out of the realm of possibilites. What ever the case, fun to watch unfold!!!

3. Both the Euro and GFS are showing what I think is a very decent build up of cold air in Canada for this time of year. I may be way off here, but it looks pretty impressive for this time of year. How this comes down (if it does at all??) will be something to watch. Based on the LRC this season, I would think it will get here in some form or fashion. How will it affect us-will be interesting to watch for sure!!

Well, have a great day-hold onto your hats today for sure-man those winds are going to be a blowing today!!!! Take care and as always, thanks for reading and providing such a great place to discuss and follow the weather!!!! You guys are all Aces!!

Bill in Lawrence

-----------------------

Bill,

It is great having you back! It has been quite busy for us as we learn how to use the new computers.

Gary

April 15, 2008 6:20 AM
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