3:30 PM update
Hail is falling in these thunderstorms. They will be marginally severe. It takes 1" hail to be severe. Thunderstorms will continue to develop as the surface low and vigorous upper level storm head our way.....
Quick 11 AM update:
The front has stalled and is just barely drifting southeast. This will place it right near Kansas City when thunderstorms will likely develop late this afternoon and evening. Training echoes will be possible as the front begins moving east and some of the thunderstorms will likely produce very heavy rain, and maybe some small hail. Look at the front at 11 AM, below, and compare it to the front I drew in at 6 AM. There has been very little movement as it is waiting for the main storm to move into Kansas:
If you compared the two maps, the one above and the second one below from the previous entry, you can see the surface low has moved northeast. The front is just sitting there waiting for some exciting weather to develop, and we are staying in the warm sector. Look at the latest RUC model 12 hour forecast valid at 10 PM tonight. The surface low is strengthening, in response to the upper level storm approaching. And, the front is still barely moving and north of Kansas City. Someone will get a lot of rain this evening, and it seems to be targeting the Kansas City metro area. We will keep monitoring this situation closely. Be sure to watch our newscasts tonight at 5, 6, and 10 PM. There is an increasing likelyhood of very heavy rainfall near the front as the surface low moves northeast. And, then on the back side we are dropping our temperatures back into the 40s for Fridays much cooler weather. Jeremy has just updated the forecast and is on right now. Have a great day! This is very interesting, not to mention the developments for next week which we will go into later. Once again, look below at the forecast from the 10 AM RUC model for tonight:
Previous entry below:
Good morning everyone,
A front is stalling just northwest of Kansas City this morning placing us in the warm sector of this storm, for now. There has been a band of weak rain showers, associated with an upper level disturbance rotating around the developing storm. So, there may be a 15 minute shower this morning, but most of the day looks dry. Look below at the 6 AM surface map:
This front is stalling in response to surface pressure falls being created as the upper level energy approaches and crosses the Rocky mountains. The KC metro area is still in the warm sector this morning, and if we see any sunshine 70 degrees is still possible. Our forecast high of 65 will likely be a bit low, as the clouds should thicken up by 1 PM this afternoon. So, 68 degrees sounds like a good adjustment for today, if the front stays north of your location. Once that front moves through the temperatures will drop, but it is stalling.
The "slide by" storm is approaching and has already produced a snowstorm across Colorado. Denver awakened to snow this morning. We have seen this type of storm many times during this years weather pattern. The first time was in October. This type of storm usually produces one very nice band of precipitation from north to south as the storm tries to close off and slide by us. I expect this band of rain and thunderstorms to form later this afternoon as the energy rotates around the developing upper low. Notice the forecast for 7 PM this evening, below. There is no closed circulation at 500 mb yet, but one will likely form as it approaches eastern Kansas. We are going to be in, what we call, south southwest flow aloft. So, any showers and thunderstorms that form will likely take off to the north northeast at a pretty good clip, 40 mph or so. The surface front is being forced to line up with the flow, so once showers and thunderstorms form later this afternoon or evening, some spots will likely get some training echoes and well over one inch of rain. But, if you are not in the band of thundestorms, then there will be spots that have a lot less than one inch of rain.
We will be tracking these developments for you all day on NBC Action News. Jeremy Nelson is filling in for Brett this morning, so watch for his updates with the new data on our 11 AM Midday newscast, and then I will be tracking the developing thunderstorms tonight.
The Junior Meteorologist contest is down to the top 25 kids, as this contest with our partner the KC Star has had a lot of entries. Take a look at them by clicking on the following link. And, then you can vote for up to ten kids. We are allowing one voting session per day. So, have some fun and help us get it down to the top 10. Congratualations to all of the kids. It was fun watching all of the entries. The voting will continue through next Friday. We will be showing the top 10 on the air in May, and then the winner will be on NBC Action News helping me do the weather, and they will also win a trip to Disneyworld. Here is the link:
http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/juniormeteorologist/default.aspx
Have a great day! Let's see if the front completely stalls, or drifts on through today.
Gary