NBC Action Communities

Gary,do you think Friday night going into Saturday will be dry? My sons soccer games have been canceled twice because of flooded fields at Macken Park in NKC, he hasn't got to play a game yet! I don't want to get his hopes up and then have him feel crushed again. Of course, you guys are number one thats a no brainer!! Have a great day!

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Thanks, and it does look dry Friday night through Saturday.

Gary

Alright Gary, chance of really being wet mid-May to mid-June.  After the winter we just had what else could we expect?  How about after mid-June.  Do you believe temps and precip will be normal or will we trend closer or into a well defined drought?  Also, the graphics.  I love your new graphics.  It is about time that the graphics and computing power is finally starting to catch up to the talent of very well qualified meteoroligists like you have on your team and over at NWS.

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Thanks!  I have a lot of ideas to make our weathercasts better than ever before, but it is going to take work.  Let us know what you think in a few weeks.

And, my boss wants me to do a special segment on the late spring/summer forecast sometime around the middle of May.  So, I will be analyzing the data and preparing for this sometime soon.  What will this pattern produce in June, July, and August?

Gary

Gary,
Do you think that the next few days match up to Jan 7&8 pattern wise?  I have it around 53-54 days reoccuring.  It's close to March 2-3 as well.  I'm not sure what you guys experienced over there, but it only shows traces of precip, plus a wild variation of temperatures.  Next two weeks are critical; corn planting time and conditions must be right!
BAClair

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BAClair,

It is around a 50-54 day cycle.  I will be spending a bit more time on the overall pattern soon.  There is still no sign of this pattern drying out.  The only signs I see point towards wetter and wetter.

Gary

Sormy warmy, it is ok! It never floods at my house, even last year when we got 5" of rain in 5hrs.

WOOOHOOOO!!!!!!.....Keep the rain coming.....It needs to dry out a bit after this though, so I can till the garden, and plant, then the rain, and storms can return.

We had a storm the other night that was pretty insane with all the lightning!



Marceline blogger,

Alex

I know it's a ways off but we have a birthday party in a park planned for my just-turned-4-year-old on Sunday.  It's scheduled for late in the afternoon/early evening.  How likely is that our area (around Warrensburg) will be too rainy for a party?  Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated!  I need to know if I should have a bunch of indoor games ready for a bunch of preschoolers!  Thanks so much!  I really appreciate your accuracy and dedication to the viewers and bloggers!

Good morning Gary---Say we missed out completely on the rain the other night.  What has caused the Topeka through St. Joe line (approx) to get less in moisture within the LRC the last several months?  Has a ridge moved slightly? Also approx when do you think the rain will begin this afternnon and become wide spread? Would it be around 4 pm or later or 6 pm or later?  I wanted to do some yard work before it came busting in even though it appears Topeka/Berryton is on the western edge of the heavier rain.  Congrats on your weather rating too.  Michael/Topeka/Berryton

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Michael,

Some thunderstorms have already formed.  Your area has been missed lately, just a bit, but I doubt the missing continues.

Gary

Ugh!  My yard needs a break.  Usually it takes about 1.5" for my back yard to flood and I've got standing water back there from the .5" we got Tuesday morning.  I hope we get a break soon...everything's just so soggy!

I know that everybody is concerned about their yards, but in the grand scheme of things, that's tiny.  The farmers who produce our food are becoming quite nervous!!  We need the rain to stop for them so they can get in the fields.

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Yes,

It would be nice to get one dry week. 

Gary

Gary -- You guys are great.  Any idea what it will be like Thursday evening in St. Louis?  There's a Jimmy Buffett concert there!  Thanks!

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There is a chance of rain, but the disturbance passes St. Louis late in the afternoon, so maybe it will dry out in time for the Buffet concert.

Gary

Weather Team -

Is this a soaking rain or a BAMBOOMBAMKABOOM thunderstorm type event?

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The warm front is very weak.  The upper level disturbances are rather weak and disorganized.  There will likely be some organization to the thunderstorms, but where will they be concentrated?  Right now, I lean towards just south of Kansas City, but I am not convinced at this time of this.  By later today we should have a better idea.  Right now, I would say the scattered nature to the thunderstorms will produce a few pockets of heavy rain, and some spots with a lot less.

Gary

Will you be putting out another long-range (45-day) forecast based on your cycling theory anytime soon, or have you discontinued those?

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Notes,

Maybe we will, but as we move into May and June, it would make more sense to do just a more general forecast of anomalies.  My boss wants me to do a special forecast for late spring and summer around mid-May.  As I work on this I may issue another long range forecast. 

Gary

Well, I for one, have been loving this round of warm temps. Last night, after the most awesome Bon Jovi concert ever to be seen, we stood on the top floor of the parking garage looking out over the city and it felt so amazing. Thank you Gary and Jeremy for making the weather perfect last night.  (Ok, I know you can't MAKE the weather but just take the credit LOL)
On another note, what do you think of severe weather chances in northern OK and South Central KS? If I get cancelled Thursday I might go with Sean.

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We will have to look at the set up, but it would likely be way out west on Thursday, and possibly in Nebraska too, and if the warm front sets  up in northern Missouri we will have to watch this area closely as well.

I heard both concerts were awesome.

Gary

Well Darn! I had a special picnic planned for my kids and dogs for around 4:00 up here in Clay County.  Now I am wondering if we should cancel or not.   Any advice weather guru's?

Gary,

When will we get to see the new HD graphics on an HD newscast? :-)

The new graphics have been noticably sharper, even in SD. Can't wait see what an HD newscast looks like!

Mike and Jenn in Lees's Summit

Central Kansas is under a Severe T-storm Watch until 4:00 PM CDT.

Kristi

well for once i dont want the rain. I got tickets to the nascar truck and indy car races at kansas speedway this sat. and sun. If you could make it 75 and sunny both days that would be great. :)

Does anyone know what the severe chances are for the metro area tonight and into Thursday morning?

Thank you

Hey Gary, Do  you think it's safe enough to fertilize the yard today?  Sure like to get that down and not have it lie around.  

Laura in Raytown

Good luck with the summer forecast, Gary…with a weakening LRC, it will be hard to be specific.  Notice – critics…this would be the time to pounce.

With the cycle being 50-54 days, then we should think of the cycle repeating seven times.

We are at the beginning of the sixth cycle.  I think we will avoid the dry streak we saw similar in November due to the convective nature of Spring/ early summer.  So, while it is good the boss now sees the value in these outlooks, for you, trying to do summer is counter productive in using the LRC based on how you see it.

Other thought – I remember a month or so ago making mention that this year’s pattern and longwave would be problematic in the Spring for those that prospered in the Winter.  

It seems to be happening.  In Winter, St Joe and Topeka were catching deformation zones hooked into the comma heads of surface lows.  Great for snow, not prime time for Spring activities.  Now you are finding dryslots and stratus decks/light rain

While the SE got hosed on snow, they seemed to always be near the warm sector of these surface cyclones – aka ice or sleet.  In Spring time, that would be …um..well..rain and thunderstorms.  Based on the last month, that certainly has panned out.

I also thought that the lows would begin to track a bit further north and west bringing more of the viewing area into the SE quad of these surface lows…that is happening.

This said, I must give kudos to pvt.  He was closer on the timing of this than I was.  I was about two weeks too quick on my analysis.

So, now we should continue to watch the surface low tracks.  With the heavy jet, we were seeing them round the horn around Joplin MO, [thus getting areas just N and NW of us in the comma head.]  As the jet is still active, but retreating, we are seeing the surface lows moving northward.  I am seeing many surface lows pass right over KC or just NW now.  

This is the area to watch for triple point interaction.  Also, I am not seeing as much occlusion now due to the weaker strength of the cold air backing these cold fronts.  Most of the time they becoming more stationary opposed to occluded.

Anytime you can be near the triplepoint or in the SE quad, you have to keep an eye out.  Surface convection is starting to pop now, dew points are generally always favorable now in the mid 50s plus, now its just up to the forcing and upper air.

For those that don’t know and wonder why Summer we don’t have the most active weather?  I have had many questions asking this…we have heat, we have moisture, it all seems to be there..why not any organized severe weather?

The answer is the upper air.  If you don’t have forcing, sheer, or something to generate lift…then all the surface CAPE in the world won’t help…albeit occasional pulse storms that can bust through the strong cap.

In the Summer, our upper air support goes north for the summer, leaving us to bask in light winds, hot temps and our favorite summer ridging and capping.

So…now to about late July is the best shot of exciting weather. [duh] And, we are coming back into the active pattern…so…with the pattern, the climatology, and the ingredients necessary for excitement..this might be a fun stretch.  

Or..could be very bad for some.  I don’t see the pattern being shy on rainfall…

Flooding may continue to get worse for those downstream.

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Very good analysis, and some solid ideas.  Whether we are in the 5th or 6th cycle can be debated. If it all began around the middle of October and we call  that cycle 1, then this should be the 5th cycle.  The more reliably active part of the pattern should be moving in during the next three weeks.  I am certain of a few good severe weather set-ups.

Gary

I see a bit of rotation in the cell by Emporia.  Here is the link...hope it doesn't blow up the blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=zoom&num=1&delay=15&scale=0.250&noclutter=0&ID=TWX&type=N0S&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&map.x=401.5&map.y=241&centerx=560&centery=-52&lightning=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0

This is in SRV mode.  Notice the inflow/outlflow  [green/orange] couplet.

It seems to be going in and out but seems to be something to watch.

Jeri,
I replied to your message.. and I totally agree on the Bon Jovi concert, but we went the 17th.. enjoyed the game of avoid the puddles(poodles lmao)

Stacy, read your message and totally understand about chasing this year. Somewhere I have a Xerox copy of a pic of the Wyandotte tornado coming right to the hospital before it went north. Whoever took it was down on Stae and 90th. So you never know when you can get some more great shots, hopefully not that close though!

Geez, Scott, that still looks like alot of Legos to me :(

scott,

U messed it up!

Particularly during this period when you say your cycle "weakens" (and *why* does it weaken?) it seems to become so ambiguous as to be entirely ineffectual at predicting or even at defining sequences of repeating events after the fact.

Are you working on some new form of quantitative analysis, scott?  

Any word on a summer intern for Gary?  It seems as though met programs often have students available for paid or unpaid summer positions that bolster their academic credentials - any shot at getting someone to do some true quantitative analysis on the cycle idea this summer?

Scott,

Your post brings something to mind I found out last year in relation to the  flooding, (you note) vs. ground moisture content, that you might be interested in.

Last year I had a couple different foundation repair experts out for a quote.  While they were here, they told me that they have never been as busy as they have been in the past couple years.  The reason why, they said, was the moisture content of the soil.  Foundations have been cracking all over our area and according to what they said it is due to many years of below normal rainfall and many of the homes and businesses foundations have been adversely affected.  This happens when, just a few feet from the top of the ground, the soil dries out and basically becomes powder.  They claimed that all they had to do was drill down a couple of feet before they encountered bone dry soil. According to the foundation experts it is going to take several years of above average rainfall for the deeper parts of the earth to gain back their normal moisture content levels which forces the ground against the foundations so the cracks and shiftings stop happening.

It is my thought, that the flooding we are seeing is not because of ground saturation but because only the top foot or two is saturated while the layers below are still dry and haven't gained normal moisture content because of the past years of below moisture averages.

So, this is why whenever you see a post from me you will always see me welcoming the rain.  But I do not want to see damaging flooding for anyone.  Just good old rain that nurishes the earth.

Laura in Raytown

Jeri
No doubt.. if I would have seen that monster I would have been quaking in my shoes.  I was scared enough as it was.