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Gary,

The SPC has pushed the slight risk of severe storms to the K.C. Metro...what are your thoughts on our chances of severe weather the rest of the day?

There is a Thunderstorm Watch already in affect for central KS until 4PM.  I personall think we will have one issued for us soon.

Ooooo - things look awful "juicy" down through the pan handles and moving this way, this will be fun to watch unfold!

This post got pre-empted in the last thread...

Particularly during this period when you say your cycle "weakens" (and *why* does it weaken?) it seems to become so ambiguous as to be entirely ineffectual at predicting or even at defining sequences of repeating events after the fact.

Are you working on some new form of quantitative analysis, scott?  

Any word on a summer intern for Gary?  It seems as though met programs often have students available for paid or unpaid summer positions that bolster their academic credentials - any shot at getting someone to do some true quantitative analysis on the cycle idea this summer?

Gary are you saying that it looks like the KC area will miss this huge area of Thunderstorms, some severe, because looking at  NWS radar in Central Kansas and Central Oklahoma, these Thunderstorms seem to be moving this way. With additional day time heating and the approaching warm fron, it appears we are going to be in for a rough afternoon and early evening. Some areas of Kansas have already recieved 3 -5 inches of rain and are under flash flood warnings.

Jeff

----------------

Jeff,

I am saying that this area may be our best chance!

Gary

Folks..while being aware, don't get too excited yet.  The parameters look much better to our SW, though with the NE movement..the conditions are getting better here.

We are still weakly capped and weakly instable.  The next few hours gets better and more condusive to development.

Notes - as a quick followup to the previous blog...yes, I was working on some things.  It is going to take time to make it more quantative.  I burned out.

I am working to find how I can show the trends while statistically accounting for but reducing the anomolous noise that shows up on the trendlines.  

All I can say is one thing.  While it nearly killed me...living and breathing the analysis day after day, and for months at a time...I did see the cycle.  I also understand the variability and how it can work.   Without having that focus, it is most likely that it will be hard to show, convey, convince or otherwise gain concensus without much more effort in statistcial or quantative proof.

So...as we are all entitled to thought, you points are valid from your viewpoint.  I value that.  Just wish you had the time to immerse into it to see it for yourself.  

That said, the "look, don't you see it?" or those types of things we hear are somewhat difficult to take when it isn't at all that easy to fully understand.  

But, I do understand Gary's position..as when you do see it..and have followed it for a long time, it does seem very obvious.

Gary, my kids have soccer at 6 p.m. in Gladstone.  Any chance they'll get rained upon?  Thanks!  Congrats on the rankings.  

This should get the juices flowing...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Matt P,
I agree, Gary, can we have some kind of a general 'evening activity' forecast timeline?  Are the Royals looking at a rain out tonight? (which might be a good thing after last night!)
Thanks

Tomorrow looks fun.  Looking at some of the composites..looks like it will be a hoot.  Gas up the car, do a radio check, charge the cell phones and laptops...

;-)

Storms are trying to fire up in Douglas County KS.

Kristi

Good questions/comments Notes....on two blog entries.  

And, weatherteam, why hasn't the stretch of at least 5 degrees above average (November 10th to December 2nd) never repeated?  I would think that is a bigger "event" than any storm that you claim repeats.

Looks like the SPC is thinking about extending the Severe Thunderstorm Watch into the KC metro area, storms now building in Northern Douglas County as well.

MAN central KS. is on fire with the thunderstorms, now how far north will they get? is a good question, looks like it may evolve into one BIG MCS, and yes Scott that SPC thing did look interesting... tis the season.

Well, it looks like tomorrow could be interesing.  The parameters are there espically in kansas for a significant severe weather event, I dont know if I would consider it an outbreak, but it looks very active tomorrow.  I noticed the shift of the severe weather area to the east , for the last few outlooks.  Tomorrow looks interesting that is for sure, and even a chance on friday, wow we are getting active in the midwest.  I dont know what to make of tonight, the spc is considering putting parts of the viewing area under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. I dont know what to make of this.

kristi...forming in Miami Co as well...looks like these cells are catching some outflow from the larger clusters behind them.

That Emporia storm is just plain goofy to watch.  It is twisting pretty good trying to get fully organized.

wow moderate risk for severe wx. tomorrow across central KS, south central NE.

Scott: I filled up my truck yesterday, I'm charging my laptop, and my cell phone is usually charging, so I'll be ready to go tomorrow if I'm needed. I have 2 classes canceled tomorrow, so I'm home by like 11:30 am or so.  Its wierd how that all worked out LOL :P

Gary, what are your thoughts on tomorrow?  It looks interesing.

wow, just saw that the spc has put my area in moderate risk for tomorrows storms
YEAH!!!

tomrrow is look like a good to for those chasers. i have noticed on todays spc convective outlooks the severe wx threat has moved east and i believe that it will continue to move east with the day time heating adding to the mix.
scott-do you use anything like the CAPE to help predict/track/chase storms?

Quick question: What is considered a Moderate Mid-Level Capping Inversion?  The J/ KG value?  What is considered a weak, and strong Cap?

Hey spooky..

The stretch your refer to is somewhat interesting to discuss.  That stretch can be broken down into smaller chunks..such as the following.

Nov 8 - 14th.  Mean temp 8.14 degrees above mean.  Pretty signficant.

But...for fun, go ahead and do the math on these...

Sept 17-23 - 10.71 degrees above mean [prior to your dates]
Jan 4-9 - 16.33 degrees above mean [after your dates]

Go ahead and check the count of days between each warm streak .

I might argue that it never repeated.  In fact, just off the top of my head..I see three occurances - and..oddly..evenly spaced in a general 50-56 days apart.

But anyway..back to regularly scheduled Spring thunderstorms...

;-)

Hi Scott,
I see the storm in Miami County.

Looks like Lawrence is getting hit with a cell.

Kristi

bellgolf, CAPE is just ONE parameter that should be reviewed.

Remember, many ingredients need to come together to make it happen.  Much like a salad...

How good would a salad be with just lettuce?

;-)

I would go on a chase tomorrow but I have an appt. at 4 PM that I don't want to reschedule.

Kristi

So are you able to truly say, Scott, that you see a "cycle" in today's weather versus that of ~50 days ago, 100 days ago, 150, 200...?

How can you possibly claim that the weather is "cycling" the same without any significant quantitative evidence?  When you say the analysis got too difficult and nearly killed you, I would imagine that is relating to the multiple methods you tried that repeatedly failed to support such a theory...methods you chronicled here and elsewhere.  To many of us, after multiple failed attempts to "support" such a theory, the conclusion drawn would be that "evidence does not support the conclusion that a cycle exists."  That's not to say people are quitters or that they don't "want" to see a cycle (I'd argue the subjectivism comes more from the "I want to see a cycle" side that claims it exists rather than the skeptical side), rather that after repeated attempts and methods, the lack of *any* quantitative evidence is the death knell.  

I do have plenty of time to study the weather - I've lived and breathed it for years since beginning and completing my meteorology degree - and still, I don't see support for such a theory.  It isn't that I don't have the time - its that I'd rather spend my time on other things that seem more fruitful to me.  I'd put energy into it if I saw some hints that a cycle existed, but as of yet, anything beyond speculative coincidences seem absent to me.  

.. ..

All that said, today's storms are really firing up earlier than I expected!  Even in the absence of good daytime heating...the upper support is there though and sure making for a fun afternoon.  Good stuff!

I assume that the frontal boundary is the trigger for the severe weather occurring over Kansas.  Is the cap over KC in the process of being broken?

Kristi

Severe t-storm warning for counties near Wichita.  Quarter-sized hail and winds over 60 MPH have been reported by spotters.

Kristi

Emporia is getting pounded with heavy rain right now.

Kristi

Kristi -

There is really no surface front in Kansas today triggering these storms (check out a surface map - the surface temps, moisture, and flow are all fairly uniform)...these are largely supported via the upper air energy moving in from the SW.  The cap is eroding today as the upper air support slides our way.

That is a whole lot of water out to our west, look at all of those juicy looking thunderstorms, yum.

Is there a risk for rain or thunderstorms in the olathe area tomorrow.  My daughter has a field trip that involves being outside.

I thought that there was a frontal boundary to our south, Notes.  I forgot about the upper level disturbance moving in from the SW.

I thought that cap was lifting due to the increase moisture in the area.

Kristi

As of 2:10 pm at 130th and State Avenue in KCK I have a temp of 74.3 and a dewpoint of 63. Looking forward to some more beneficial rainfall this way.

It is pouring just north of Louisburg right now. We don't need any more.

Notes: Well said.  

Scott: Congratulations on your promotion to the weatherteam.

Those are the "mean" temps at KCI for the dates indicated (11-10 to 12-2).  Every day's mean temp during that stretch was at least 5 degrees above normal mean temp.  So, if you'd like to find me another 23 day stretch, please do.  If you're going to define the theory by somehow saying that 5 or 6 days is equal to 23, you're not going to convince anyone.

BTW, Scott, the actual mean temp was 14.3 degrees above average mean temp during that 23 day stretch.

PingBack from http://interesting3.freehostia.com/?p=8375

Well, I'll be.   SPC really did alter there map for tomorrow.  I looked at it this morning and KC was on the very West edge of slight chance.  Now we are near the east edge of moderate.  

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

I would predict that between 3:30 and 4:15 we'll have a nice round of sever weather move through the area, don't be surprised for a few warning to be announced. It would be a nice day for a storm chase.  I wouldn't be surprised to hear of a couple tornoado warnings as well.

to me it seems the best chance for severe wx is trending further east towards the metro. yesterday the 30% probability for thunderstorms on thursday was in north central nebraska. Now look where it is at.

Do you guys really think that there will that bad of severe weather out there? Just wondering what every ones thoughts were. I have noticed that the weather team must be busy so I was looking for other peoples opinions.

Thanks

and I am sitting up here in W NY under a State Of Emergency for extremely dry weather

It looks as if the cells to the southwest of us are merging, a real rain maker, and i'm sure a warning will come out of the southwest corner of the storm. it's a good set up.

I seriously doubt that we will have tornadoes today.  If anything, we will get wind and hail.  I think that the main threat will be heavy rains.

Kristi

Gosh some people are persnickety about the LRC today and dear Scott today.

Severe t-storm warning for Shawnee County KS including the city of Topeka.  There have been 60 MPH winds reported with the storm.

Kristi

well kristi,

as a storm chaser, if i was not at work today i'd be on the road southwest of the cell back tracking it

When do you guys expect the t-storms to get on the northeast side of the metro?

Just finished raining (quite hard) here at 151st and Pflumm...had very small hail with it.  There's .4" in my gauge.

I am a realist...  If that storm would produce a tornado, it would be very brief.

Kristi

clinton area may experience a storm in bit. is jim around???

Wow, those storms to the west look nasty, I hope they come our way.

i'm a realist as well kristi, but have you ever spotted or chased storms, are you looking at the movement on radar?

Gary, are the storms losing some strength as they near KC?   Is the e/se wind taking away some of their punch?  Maybe wishful thinking on my part , but here's to hoping they do!

Why is KSHB showing 30% showers when the GFS's show absolutely nothing there?

Gary--I was driving back from KC after attending a meeting and pulled into our driveway right when the thunderstorm hit Berryton.  That was at 2:45pm---It rained really hard and blew (wind speeds about 40-50) a good wind.  It is still thundering and lightly raining.  I see we are now in a mderate risk of severe weather tomorrow.  Are tornadoes a possibility or just hail, wind and heavy rain?  So far we only have .20 in the old rain gauge.  Take care,  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Woops...got my dates wrong for Sunday..sorry

I'm in NKC and I can see the thunder heads. no rain yet.

I have been watching these storms since I got up this morning.  None of the storms in KS appear to be rotating.

Kristi

Severe t-storm warning for cell over St. Clair County MO.....  Nickel-sized hail with winds over 60 MPH.  Glad we didn't go back down to the lake this week.

Kristi

Not sure if it's appropriate to ask here, but does anyone have any thoughts on whether or not they'll be able get the Royals game in tonight?

Tornado Warnings for counties N and NW of Abilene TX.  There's where the tornadic activity will be.

Kristi

Notes – Ha!  So much as you can assert the claim doesn’t exist – I spent numerous hours researching opposed to dispelling to see if it could…objectively and in more than one method.   I believe it does exist.

Beyond two people yelling over the fence at each other, this doesn’t seem productive.  That said, the time spent in analysis and the focus to what is cycling was difficult.  Perhaps you will get this as I have stated numerous times - I am not a meteorologist.  Doing the analysis took as much research to learn what I was looking for as it did to see what I learned.  Over a process of years, I feel confident with what I have seen.  

That said, my different approaches to view the cycle were due to my lack of overall understanding, my perception that the current method of communication was convoluted,  and my belief as most things maintain relationships, that there may be different ways to show it.  Make no mistake, trying different methods to prove something out was not due to the lack of evidence, but more for the need to better communicate and disseminate.  

As you are a teacher and a student of science, I would implore you to consider this activity more centric to the scientific process rather than confusion or being defeated.

I have never said that those that don’t see it are wrong, in fact..I would hope you would remember the many times I chimed in along with you and others that the current way of communication was not working as well as flaws we saw in the current method.  Perhaps you have forgotten this.

I am aware of your passion and background in weather, but based on the comments left on this board, you seem to find the passion to critique rather than really looking for yourself.  That is just my opinion..true or not.  Because I do value your opinion, I often try to bait you into discussions as I believe your background and critical thinking is critical to the process.  

So to answer your first question first…” So are you able to truly say, Scott, that you see a "cycle" in today's weather versus that of ~50 days ago, 100 days ago, 150, 200...?”

Yes.  I could explain why to you, but I would guess based on your previous response, it would fall moot…so perhaps I will spend the time on something more fruitful.


;-)


Spooky – Thanks for your reply.  I think.  While your question was presented to the weatherteam, you would be short sided to believe that a blog open to the public wasn’t fair game for all to comment on.  I believe you do it often – when your comments aren’t removed.

It is quite possible to take any stretch of sensible weather and for the sake of argument try to compare it to another.  Taking this approach shows that you haven’t fully grasped the concept of the LRC.  As the LRC is geared in the upper levels with some relationship to surface behavior, trying to assert a perfect relationship is not accurate.  That said, since you did ask about the sensible weather, I thought I would take a stab at it based on my surface analysis.

You referenced a specific time and asked for a cycle.  I took a piece of it that is significant and compared it to two other instances.  I am not sure how that is invalid to the question you asked.  While I did not address the exact duration, I would assert that time span could be broken into smaller chunks as I did to see comparisons.  

As large scale weather patterns typically flow through the CONUS on a weekly flow, it didn’t seem to make sense to try to take such a large span to compare.

My bad.  I was trying to provide some data to show a correlation.  It is my mistake to assume that you may look at it objectively.  In the future, I will make sure that I am cognizant of the intent of the question and not the answer you actually seek.

Anyway…these are just my thoughts based on what I have seen.  And since these comments were for me..I am answering.  I would defer to Gary or the team to take on the broader questions as they likely have more experience and expertise to answer the questions.

Kristi – I did note rotation a bit in the mid levels earlier..but as the storms are banding into a MCS, I have not seen anything at all.  The low level helicity did not seem overly conducive, and the holographs looked pretty bland…

I would agree with you for what is near us now.

Starting to thunder here at North Kansas City High School its 3:57pm

Western KS also under a tornado watch. Light rain at 89th and Lackman, just enough thunder to make the lab whimper and the golden woof.

wspanic, Looking at what I'm seeing I think it will get in.  But with that being said they won't be near as persistent about getting this game in as they were the ones against the Yankees because the Tribe comes back several times anyways.

Appreciate it Doug. Much like in Bull Durham, this team could use a rain out right about now.

Just started raining here in the Crossroads, by the way.

I just talked to a sod company in Rossville, KS - North of Topeka -- and they just ha done of theri semi trailers (that was empty) blow over froma the wind.  Not much rains he said -- but such heavy wind they couldn't stand up.

Severe thunderstorm watch in Eastern kansas Expired

Scott,
That storm near Emporia was strong at one time.  Today would not be a day worth chasing unless you chase in TX.  Tomorrow looks a lot more promising.

I know that I go on my gut feeling....  Sometimes I am right and sometimes I am wrong  :)  I leave the scientific stuff up to people like you. :)  I like going out to watch the sky and take pics. :)

I said earlier that this would probably bring us some hail and wind.  I think that the heavy rain is our main threat here in KC.

Kristi

When SPC places an area in a moderate risk of severe weather a full 24 hours before the expected events, does that tell us anything about the potential severity of the event?

We see low risks sometimes become moderate risks the day of the event all the time, but how often do we see moderate risks a day ahead?

------------

Yes, but we aren't in the moderate risk.  It does look impressive way out to our northwest and  it is something we are paying close attention too.

Gary

When will the rain and storms be south and east of KC?  Is it going to be torrential rain like a couple weeks ago?

No rain or thunder here.

Kristi

pouring down at I-70 & Admiral

Hushpook, yes, tomorrow looks like it could be interesting. With the moderate risk so early we could be in for severe storms tomorrow evening. Depends on if the atmosphere can distabilize from the morning activity.

Looks like a lot of rain tonight with maybe some isolated hail and wind events.

Tomorrow has the possibility of being a tornado event. Especially to our west.  

From what I've observed over the last couple years it's normal for a moderate risk to be issued a day ahead.  It isn't normal for a high risk to be issued a day ahead.  It's also common for the moderate risk area to be significantly modified and/or removed when the "day ahead" becomes the current day.  I love severe thunderstorms so much but I am trying to remain level headed to prevent sore feelings when they don't materialize, for whatever reason.  If we're still in/close to the moderate risk when I wake in the morning, and I can see the sun rising in the east instead of just low clouds, I'll think about getting excited.  When I come take a look at the blog and see Gary suggest the moderate risk is justified I'll hardly be able to sit in my chair at work.  Until those things happen, I'm going to wait and see what happens because, as we all know, prediction of a severe weather outbreak before it happens, is far from perfect.   ~ Dave

Looks like a small but heavy cell over downtown KCMO.

Kristi

The cell over downtown was a moderate shower lasting perhaps five minutes, not a single rumble of thunder.

I would imagine Gary and the weather team are relieved Scott's back to "take care of the kids", while the weather team focuses on the weather.  
Out of  the 72 something hits here in the last hour, there's about 2 people that even know what he's talking about.  The other 69 people just want to chat about current conditons and the next 12 hours.  
I applaud Scott for his take on the weather and I know others do to.  I've noticed here every person is unique in their take on the weather.  It's a classroom for everyone.  Everyone is both a teacher and a student at the same time.  It's a wonderful place to share information like no place else.

Moderate rain large drops at North Kansas City High School but its picking up in intensity. we have hail now folks larger than pee size too!

Gary, do you tink that they will get the Royals game in tonight?

It is crazy dark to my west.  

Looking at the radar in Wichita area, you can see storms are still firing up from what looked like an outflow region. The whole mess looks like it is heading our way. May be a wild ride this evening.

I am trying to figure out if I should be offended, being a "kid" and all :)

I am trying to figure out if I should be offended, being a "kid" and all :) I am one of the "chatters."

Same here, Jeri. :)

Kristi

I didn't even see that post until you commented, Jeri!  Is it offensive that I only talk about my current weather?  I'm so weather-un-wise that I'm not sure if I can have a meaningful theory conversation.  :(

Gary storms moved thru around three and there was some pea to dime sized hail and a half an inch near/at Jo Jo Executive Airport. Thunder keeps rumbling and the skies are violet with no rain. What are you gonna talk about in a few minutes? Byan.

Barbara,
Don't let it get to you...  I get a lot of flack for being one of a handful of women on a KU hoops' board. :)

Kristi

i consider myself an ameture(sp) weather blogger. i have lots to learn. but i did find something very help besides the weather team which is great. i found a series of books by tim vasquez. he runs weathergraphics.com and you can order the books from him (cheaper than barnes and noble amazon) but these books provide a lot of information.  my personal fav is the storm chasers handbook but thats just me :)

Juba...you hear thunder by the Exec. Airport?  I live right by there and have heard nothing.  Maybe I did and just thought it was something else.

Dark blue sky to my south. Significant weather alert for us, 50 mph winds expected.

EVERYBODY, CHANNEL 8! HE'LL BE ON AT 5:18 TO TALK ABOUT THE STORMS OR MY CLOCK IS REALLY WEIRD, HE JUST SAID TWO MINUTES FOR HIM TO BE ON!

Bellgolf, my personal favorite is just chasing with Sean. He can explain everything in layman's terms and I understand it perfectly..all the ewys and wherefores...until the next morning. Especially if it has been a really late night getting back and I think...what did he explain about dewpoints?
Barbara, when you talk about your current weather I believe that is Nowcasting. :)

Juba, relax. The weather always comes on at 18 after the hour. And dependant on our cable system Channel 8 may mean nothing to us.

Rain starting in Olathe

Or, I should say, starting to rain again.  

There's the thunder!  

Yeah barbra, just now!

Professor Lezak,

I wasn't asking on KC being in a moderate risk. I am curious about the frequency of moderate risks being posted an entire day ahead of time, and whether that moderate risk being posted that far ahead tells us anything about the potential strength of an event?

Does the fact that a moderate risk is posted an entire day ahead of time mean that there is an even greater risk of particularly dangerous storms?

Barbra, do you have a rain gage. . . . . . . . do you live North South East or West of the Executive airport, cause I can see it thru 2 lines of houses thru my front porch, WOW, THUNDER, should slow down on my computer!

I remember when we had that storm a few weeks ago, where the moderate risk was issued east of us. That was issued 3 days out, and this moderate risk is issued 2 days out. I think this storm could be pretty potent.

Awesome thunderstorm right now!

Is it just me or does this look like a classic cold pool with a bow echo in the developing phases across the central part of the metro right now- moving east.

Pretty dark here in Paola, I can hear thunder in the distant southwest but just a few sprinkles falling and very slight breeze.  I keep holding out hope the heaviest rain might skirt around us....fingers and toes are crossed!!!
--deb

rotation in two cells to the southwest, moving in...... did you hear that simplekristi??!!!

I called this ummm about 3 hours ago.. thank you very much.

Hailing very slightly at Jo Co Executive Air port up to pea size and already a half an inch before these new storms came
!

quarter size hail reported in warrensburg. and brian1234, what storms are rotating from the southwest? I dont see any of that.

No hail at my house but it's really raining.

it's upper level rotation

http://www.intellicast.com/storm/severe/onekm.aspx?location=USKS0126&animate=true

that radar is getting very red as it moves into the metro.  my cat don't like the thunder she has gone to hide under the bed.  Just lost power in Riverside as I'm writing this.

Wow!  I've already had .7" of rain today...and it's still coming down!

Not in the base, Brian.  It is not even showing up on storm velocity.

I was outside taking pics when the gust front came thru.

Kristi

Kristi, are you sure you can't reschedule your appt and chase tomorrow?

new blog

it didn't last that long kristi....

don't you people have jobs??

its 6 brian.

Brain, I am not sure who or what you are so rudely referring to. But I am a Respiratory Therapist at a local hospital and work full time, which amounts to 3  12hour shifts a week. That leaves me with 4 days off a week. Not everyone has a M_F 9-5 job.

1.50 inches of rain now in Gladstone in the Bolling Heights Neighborhood.