NBC Action Communities

Were happy frost is pretty, but will the tree leaves be ok?

I wish i could get away with that mentality at my job.  "i dont feel like doing it today, maybe i'll do it tomorrow".  Your job is weather, you should at least give some insight especially when it is important to many of us out there, even if you could end up wrong.  

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As I said, there is no reason to analyze the data as it will look differently.  We know there is a chance of severe thunderstorms Thursday evening, but that is all anyone knows at this time, just that there is a chance.  We will discuss this situation as enough data supports that discussion.

Gary

Tree leaves were OK last year, no sense this year would be any different.

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Well, no, tree leaves were not OK last year.  There was significant damage in April 2007.  But, temperatures dropped into the teens.  This will be a light freeze or frost in the area.

Gary

No spring plants will be damaged by a light frost and especially not the trees. If, for some bizarre reason, you have already planted summer herbs like basil, they will damaged.

I have completely given up watching other stations' weather because of their habit of hyping a potential storm a week in advance, storms that we usually didn't end up getting anyway.  I would much rather get an accurate forecast 36-48 hours out than a wild guess any day.  No point getting excited unless we need to.

A quick question about the Jr. Meteorologist Contest...will you be announcing the top 10 as a comprehensive list?  Or, will you just be revealing them one by one each weeknight starting on Wednesday?

Gary,

Tree LEAVES were OK last year, however the buds/flowers were frozen off in many spots affecting the fruit crops.  Only affect the cold had on leaves was a slightly weaker fall color turn (which was primarily the cause of a dry summer not cold temperatures)

Leaves generally are not affected by frost or sub 32 degree temperatures if they are only for an hour or less.  

Yes you were correct, last year it was the teens. Big difference from this year.

weatherweanie, I nearly lost a young maple tree last year.  As a matter of fact, I'm still not certain it's going to fully recover.  We had to lop off the top half of it this spring, as the top was completely dead.  There is life in the bottom half, but I'm not sure it will make it.

It was not just buds/flowers.

Why so argumentative?

Hmmm...[this can't be a good start for Gary with a "Hmmmm"]..LOL

Thou thinks the team to be too prudent.  

I understand your need for caution in dealing with the many millions and millions of people that read this blog, but I think problems can arise as well with being to cautious or dismissal.

Two very recent examples - first, this streak of near record lows.  I won't beat a dead horse, but it was said this was very unlikely less than a week ago.  Not even a possibility.

From last Monday's blog - "It appears that we have had our last freeze (April 14).  This doesn't mean there won't be another morning below 40 degrees with a chance of frost, but even this possibility isn't showing up right now."

When it was brought to your attention that the GFS showed it...it was responded with - "I agree with the potential for close to another freeze within two weeks with this pattern. But, I still doubt that it will happen.  "

Ok..so a light freeze is possible, the NWS has us in a frost advisory, and we may be setting or tying another record with low temps.  

Now, to your defense, on Friday, Jeremy put out this "But this mornings NAM & GFS are hinting at not only a colder Sunday, but possibly a few snowflakes in or near the viewing area on Sunday morning. "

So, about 48 hrs ahead of the cold, it came out.  Is that too late?  Not even a mention of a cooling trend earlier in the week?

Second point - Upcoming Thursday's events.  This blog even looks dismissal in saying..."There is no reason to analyze the situation yet.  It has a different look on every model run.  "

Yet, for many - the following deemed reliable statements made elsewhere seem atleast worded to provide caution even though all details are not known...

NWS -  IT APPEARS THAT A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY. MODELS
CURRENTLY INDICATING MOISTURE RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN A
STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS DETAILS...BUT WILL
BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT IN HWO AND WXSTORY.

SPC -   -- STG MID/UPPER VORTEX ALOFT...DEEPENING THEN OCCLUDING SFC CYCLONE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS NRN KS/ERN NEB...TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD OVER SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND DRYLINE SSWWD FROM LOW ACROSS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN KS...CENTRAL OK...AND N-CENTRAL OR NW TX.
RETURN FLOW MOISTURE MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SVR
POTENTIAL FROM NEAR AND E OF SFC LOW SWD TOWARD ARKLATEX/SE OK
REGION.

Both these statements give the potential - without saying anything is imminent.  

I just don't understand the downplay when stating what appears to be there - is fair enough - without needing the hype other stations put into it.  It almost looks like the stance of the station is anti-hype even at risk of not mentioning the potential until it is on our doorstep 48 hrs out.

I know some folks will disagree and prefer the very conservative approach, and there are certainly merits to that..but when it looks there and with the advantage of the LRC [which shows this storm very nicely from last cycle], not sure why the hesitation.

Anyway...let the barrage begin!  LOL

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Scott,

You are beating a dead horse.  Come on, we already talked about this.  Our last freeze is still April 14th.  Isn't it?  And, sometimes we make a statement like what I said, "I just don't see it right now".  So, what. If there was no chance of snow, and I said "I just don't see any chance of snow next week", but then something changes and then I see it, shouldn't be such a concern of yours.

Now, for the severe weather threat.  It is there, we talked briefly about it, but it is still too early to analyze as deeply as you have analyzed.  Given the fact that Thursday is May 1st, it will not shock anyone if this starts looking more serious.

Gary

Anyway Yes frost kills plants and hurts trees.

The NWS and the SFC are both being Serious over the Potentialy Severe weather outbreak Thursday.

If This happens will we be under a High risk or a PDS risk. For those of you who dont know what PDS Risk is its Potentially Dangerous Situation. Thursday will probabily be hit and miss. Maybe its our turn for some accual severe weather.

Again, Thursday is worth the mention based on the set up, but anything more than that is unknown at this time.  High risk and PDS s are not that common, so I would be very hesitant to go there right now.  Maybe closer to late Tues we will know more.

The one thing that is unsure is the quality of moisture.  I see sounding forecasts showing adequate moisture, but we will have to watch it.

I have heard before folks asking for my analysis [not sure why?  I am a hobbiest? - the real analysis is here at KSHB].  I have offered up mine yesterday on my blog.  I say this to prevent some redundancy.

Gary, I know you've already said you are thinking the weather trends are pointing towards a cooler than normal summer, but I am thinking the oppisite.  Every time winter hangs on, like now, our summers have always been a sizzler and a bone dry one.   My question is, when will you have enough data compiled to do your summer weather outlook forecast?  Another question I would like to ask is, can you go back through the records and see when we've had lingering winters/hot summers if that can be part of your LRC theory?  Know that would be a lot of research but, with you, I think you'd have fun. :)

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Well your first statement is not based on fact.  Just look at 1993.  It was a wet/cooler spring, and then a very wet summer. 

Anyway, we will be working on our summer forecast special weather segment which will air around the middle of the month of May at 10 PM. 

Gary

Thanks Gary!


Now the Severe Threat, I wont be surprised, sometime in May, I'm hoping to go on a chase with Sean Wilson!!

So…Gary, let me play devil’s advocate today.  I understand and generally agree with your methods in communication, but I am not sure I am always in the majority.

Let me take some of your thoughts above to maybe put a different light on them.  

“So, what. If there was no chance of snow, and I said "I just don't see any chance of snow next week", but then something changes and then I see it, shouldn't be such a concern of yours.”

As we are told to come to the blog for more detail behind your forecasts, when something changes and within the time period shown by models, I would beg to differ that it wouldn’t be any of my concern.  

This blog is supported by those in the public that ARE CONCERNED about changes and to believe otherwise is well..anyway.    Many folks plan their weekly events based off the advice and analysis of your forecasts.  To assert that it would not be such a concern would be a bit short sided.

If your program director told you that you would be getting 5 minutes for each evening during sweeps week for weather, only to tell you later that

“I just don't see any chance of the extended weather segment", but then something changes and then I see it, shouldn't be such a concern of yours.”   I think you might see this differently.


As far as the severe weather – yes, you did briefly talk about it.  Casually.  In almost the amount of space as promoting the Jr. Met contest [cool contest BTW].  The amount of analysis I did on the setup is irrelevant to this discussion.  

What is relevant is that only with the chatter of the bloggers, did you even make mention of it.  Your statement confirms this…

“There has been some discussion of a set-up for severe weather later this week.”  

When the SPC and the NWS note a potential setup, it becomes worthy of discussion – I think.  Even if you disagree with them, [which at times you have and have been right!], it is still fair to proactively bring up the risk even if it doesn’t pan out.  

Better to be prepared and relieved it didn’t pan out vs not prepared and surprised it did.

I love this part -  “Given the fact that Thursday is May 1st, it will not shock anyone if this starts looking more serious.”  Yes, from a pure climate perspective, this is valid – but wildly contradicts your blog thoughts on April 18th “Where is severe weather season?”  The perception is that you feel we haven’t been in many severe setups.

So, then you make a note that this has been typically the dry cool part of the LRC, but then rationalize your lack of discussion for a severe set up later this week with “Given the fact that Thursday is May 1st, it will not shock anyone if this starts looking more serious.”

Forgive me if I am lost with this logic.

Long story short, you all have done a great job.  Clearly this is the best team in town.  I offer subtle critique as I want to see your team even better!  I hope you can take the critique in the spirit that it is meant.  I think it is these little hiccups that probably only I pay attention to, that can allow some confusion or doubt to creep in.

Rather than let it fester undiscussed, I -time to time - do bring these up to further solidify the communication and consistency.  It is top notch already, but let’s make it even better!

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I agree Scott, we want this blog to be an important and valuable part of your time.  We are looking for ways to improve the blog and we will let it evolve in the coming months.

Now, when it comes to this severe weather set up.....it is worth talking about and discussing.  But, I am not going to analyze all of the parameters yet.  Already this morning we have two differing solutions for Thursday's set up.  There is no doubt that many of the ingredients are coming together for severe thunderstorms later this week.  And, we will go into more details on the newscasts and in the blog very soon.  But, we can discuss it here. 

Gary

I will let the rest of this go..but thought it would be fair to respond.

Scott,

How accurate can the 4 day outlook be anyway?  NWS and SPC change their 24hr outlook constantly.  Gary did a fine job alerting everyone that there is a chance of thunderstorms later in the week and even gave an opinion on the set up.  Any current discussion is full of "if/then" statements.

Thanks for the heads up Gary.  I look forward to your analysis of the setup in a future blog.  

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Thank you!  We will go into the details soon.

Gary

Gary,

I am new to this blog, but it appears this KSHB blog is taken seriously, yet people have fun and I like that.  So, for my first blog question, when does it look like summer will surface permanetly and we will start to see steady warm temperatures in the 70's and 80's without dropping back down in to the 60's and 50's?

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First of all welcome to the blog.  It is on days like today when we have time to interact fully with you and attempt at answering your questions.  It just isn't that busy and I don't have any public appearances today.

Your question is a good one, but I believe you are really alluding to when does winter leave us for good, rather than when is summer here to stay.  Your temperature description would still be a rather cool summer. As the nights continue to shorten, summer approaches, the the winter cold fronts will fade away.  We are within two to three weeks of finally getting rid of mornings in the 30s to lower 40s and highs in the 50s.  This pattern will still be capable of another few stronger cold fronts before this time. 

Gary

I was watching a weather forecast from another station last night where they did seem to "hype up" the possiblity of a severe storm sometime between Thursday into Friday.  It was mentioned that the NWS does not normally give warning in such advance unless it is expected.  How true that is...I don't know.  Then I switched over to NBC to watch the forecast and I didn't catch any mention of the severe storm watch for Thursday into Friday.  I do appreciate that NBC did not want to "hype-up" this storm in advance but this information was vital to some of us.  My DH had a flight scheduled out of Philadelphia for Thursday night due to arrive in KC around 10 p.m.  Because of the information I had heard I asked that he change his flight just to save himself a headache at the airports.

Needless to say...NBC is still my #1 weather information to turn to:) ***************** Just to add to this I did the weather last night...2 long segments at 10pm and showed the 500mb flow for Thursday and specifically said, "Temperatures will be much warmer and with an upper level low nearby and a surface front we need to watch this for the possibility of strong or even severe storms". So it was mentioned last night at 5 & 10pm. Jeremy

very nice discussion set up here... lol gary i sent u an email! makes me happy but now.... after looking at the outlook,

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

it seems that we could have a very interesting set up, especially since they've had their eye on our area for several days in advance, it should seem that would mean something. It think that we really could have some severe weather agreeing with chfs327... of course, i may not have a clue what im talking about, but it looks like some action is headed our way.
just an opinion.

and about the frost, RDub, u said that i may have some damage if u planted summer plants like basil... is that really a possibility? i planted it a little over a week ago...  i'd like to keep it around, lol. very interesting set up over the next several days!

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It appears that we may have a 6 hour window of opportunity for severe thunderstorms in our local area Thursday evening.  We will go into the details as it gets a bit closer. 

Gary

Cover your tender plants tonight.  We will cover some of ours.

Kristi  

Twinkiekid,

I agree to an extent.  The SPC started with the 6 day, then 5 day and now 4 day targeting the same area.  

Subsequently, the NWS in TOP/ICT/EAX started the mention on Sat and Sun.  

While none of this is assured, it can’t be necessarily discounted either – especially in light of the different objective sources coming together on a general consensus.


Ahh, Jeremy chimes in from afar...so, you all want us to watch the blog AND the 5 & 10PM newscasts TOO?  LOL.

Gary - you crack me up.  You have that it may be a 6 hr window, but won't go into details until later.  Clearly you are putting in some analysis, for a situation stated above "There is no reason to analyze the situation yet. "

Ok..I am done, but this has been very amusing for me to see how quickly things change.

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Scott,

I have seen a lot of six hour windows close up and have nothing happen, and then everyone wonders why you spent a week on talking about it.  So, this is why we will wait one more day to go into much detail.  At the same time Scott, we aren't downplaying the threat at all.  It is there.  The threat is now withing 78 hours.  We will all be analyzing the situation as we get closer.  For the viewers, all we need to know now is that there is a threat. The reasons why, the exact set up, etc. can wait for another 24 hours or so. 

Gary

    Gary, I haven't seen the severe threat change much on the outlooks. In fact, It has been in the same general area all 3 days it was issued, with KC about directly in the middle. I dont get why you dont call this a classic set up: Upper 70 temps, strong south winds, 60 dew points, low to our north, dry line extending south through our area, good shear, (undirectional...?).

   The NWS has included us in a severe outlook for several days now. They are saying this has the potential to be significant, and you are not even worrying about it at the moment. Dont you think now is the time to get people prepared, because climatology, the first week in May can be very hectic around here.

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When I say it isn't a classic set up, I am talking about a perfect situation with a triple point and moisture all coming together right here. This doesn't mean there isn't a strong potential for severe thunderstorms on Thursday, but at this moment it appears the surface low goes way up to our northwest,  and then we just have a dry line/cold front moving across to trigger severe thunderstorms.  This is all I meant by that statement.  Let's see how it looks later today and into Tuesday.  I just want to see how it really sets up.  It could become a classic set up yet?

Gary

Jeremy,

Thanks for clarifying last night's 10 o'clock forecast.  I had missed the 5 o'clock and had missed your mention of the "possible storms" for Thursday during your forecast.  I'll continue to watch for any updates.

I also want to mention that I watched Brett's forecast during the 11 o'clock viewing a bit ago...a bit of tension there at the end when asked if he could give an "update in half an hour".  No one would expect that.  You are all doing a great job...keep it up.

So was my brother rated number 25?

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Andrew,

No, he just didn't make the top 10 based on the votes that came in.  He was close to the top 10 and we felt he was one of the best ones, so this is why Brandon is on at 5 PM today.  He is an honorary mention.  I am so proud of him.  You guys better watch at 5 PM.

Gary

In looking at this a bit more on the models, this is really quite an interesting storm.  It's been awhile seeing a cutoff storm that wasn't a "slide by".

This thing will be around in the region through Sunday.  Good grief.  I wonder what Friday looks like now a bit as well...

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If it all slows down a bit, our threat would wait until Friday.  The timing is questionable.

Gary

nws is already saying spotter activation may be required on thursday night.

Okay...my turn :o)  Their was a threat of severe weather one other time this year and I remember Gary and crew talking about it but not making a HUGE deal out of it. When the event did not materialize into a outbreak people were ticked off because they felt their was no reason to "talk about it" until 24-36 hours out. Sooo it is kinda of one of those things that no matter what Gary and crew does some people will be happy and some will not. I personally would rather see NBC Action News wait until the event is closer to really talk about it, place it through the blog and the community. Either way we all are informed. I see no reason to get the juices going so far out...especially when all the necessary features of such a big event are not all there..100%. Okay I am done. LOL!!

I do hope however that this storm or event does not hold on into the weekend. I have a huge garage sale I am doing and I NEED to get rid of these toys and cloths. Ughhh....girls really do accumulate alot of stuff.

Have a great day everyone.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

Thank you so much!  Great point!  And, the weekend looks good right now.

Gary

Many of the same folks are irritated if "Wheel of Fortune" gets a small tornado warning for their county in the upper right hand corner.

;-)

Scott...LOLOLOLOLOLOL!!! This is true!
Monica

this is still three days out.  A lot can change.  I just had my life changed in a matter of a minute this morning.

Kristi

Hope it was not something bad Kristi?

kristi, what happened this morning, is everything ok?

Gary,
It seems as though we have some individuals who enjoy argueing and complaining about everything.  If they are looking for weather forecasters to take shots in the dark and guess what is going on then why are they spending time on this blog.  Your forecasts require data, statistics, and extensive analysis.  Your good hearted nature tends to address future weather trends informally through the blog.  I appreciate your candid and personal style and wish that others would realize that the blog has multiple purposes and your statements should not always be considered actual forecasts.  If the negative members of this blog stopped for a moment they might realize that part of the blog is for fun communication with dedicated viewers, part of the blog is educational, and another part is to remain current on weather situations as they occur.  I appreciate all three and enjoy learning about the science behind the LRC.  Keep up the great work.

The whole notion of cold, long winter going straight into a hot summer is only valid when the weather is really dry. In that case, it is very easy to go from cold to hot because of the dry soil conditions. If you look at some of the all-time records, you see that in some places the highest high and lowest low were set in the same year. For example, North Dakota set both all time high and low in 1936 (121 and -60 !).

However, that is obviously not the case this year. The wet and cold soil almost guarantee that we will NOT go straight from winter to summer.

Good point RDUB, while we can get hot here in Kansas City. It is pretty difficult to get record breaking heat with everything so green. You would need things to dry out in order for that to occur.

WOW, what a cool breezy day, kind of feels like a sunny early March day rather than it being almost May!!!
I understand where Gary is coming from not throwing out a lot of deep analysis  this early...
The problem is, technically since this is a blog and not an "official forecast", you could do that for the hard core weather people who would want to see the possible scenario and all of the unique parameters that are a factor with this storm, even if they know it might be fantasy 12 hours later... but there will ALWAYS be people that will hear about the chance of thunderstorms, and look at the NWS statements ect. and come to the blog to see how worried they should be and they would come across the analysis and STILL take it WAY too seriously even if you try to tell them that it is not the forecast it is just something of interest for the people really in to this stuff, they will say something like "but if it is important enough to put on the blog then it must be serious" ect.   We have seen what was supposed to be HUGE MEGA set ups turn into duds, and we have seen set ups that from a few days out or even a day out not look too impressive to end up with a RAGING severe event on the day of.  So I think Gary and team made the right call with just saying a chance of thunderstorms, and just mentioning that there is a chance they might not be just garden variety.  Well just my two cents again;)!!

finjay, are there some specific points you are referring to?  Looking above, I don't see anything overly critical?

I wish i could get away with that mentality at my job.  "i dont feel like doing it today, maybe i'll do it tomorrow".  

Monica and Twister,
My dad probably has cancer...  Suspicious spots on one of his lings and liver with enlarged lymph nodes.  My mom has a spot on one of her lungs too.

Not very good medical news around here today at all.

Kristi

It is cool here today.  I am looking for warmer weather and good news.

Kristi

Ahhh...  Just one persons thought in this situation.  Gosh know, I have had that same mentality time to time in both work and my weather endeavors.

LOL

Sorry to hear that Kristi.  Hopefully you'll get the good news you and your family deserves!

Ughh....sorry to hear that Kristi!! I know how you feel though. My mom was diagnosed with *** cancer during the holidays and her treatments just finished up last week. It is very trying not only on the patient but the whole family. Hang in their, be positive and pray. I will say prayers too.
Monica

Hang in there Kristi.

Kristi, I am so sorry to hear about your folks. We will all keep you in our prayers and try to feel positive that things will turn out ok.
Jeri

Wow - what's with everyone piling on Gary about Thursday's convective potential?!?  Pretty amusing day to read these posts considering it is a convective event that is still 3-4 days out.  

As many of you know (Gary probably knows all too well), I'll be the first to critique what I see as an inadequate or otherwise "off" forecast, but to say anything more than "the potential exists for significant storms on Thursday" is to jump the gun, in my opinion.  As he stated, I've seen plenty of "apocalyptic" days loom with models painting the end of the world  from 6 days out and continue to through 5, 4, 3, 2 days...and then fizzle.

I have to agree with him in that spending much time on the mesoscale analysis of an event 70-80-100 hours out is pretty much a waste of time in terms of an immediate forecast.  It may not be a waste of time in terms of learning *how* to analyze convective forecasting (which is certainly a worthwhile cause in and of itself if done for individual gain), but in terms of pinpointing activity to take action on (for self or others), it most certainly is a waste, in my view.

That said, it does appear as though Thursday holds some true potential...at least the most (or close) we've seen thus far this mediocre spring season.

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Notes,

Thanks for the support today.  If you just look at the ECMWF and UKMET models, it slows this storm down enough to change the timing on this possible severe weather set-up.  We will wait and see how it looks on Tuesday.

Gary

How does Thursday fit in with the LRC?

Kristi, I will keep you and your parents in my thoughts and prayers.  Warm wishes and weather headed your way...

Notes - who is piling on?  I think everyone is aware that it is too early for mesoscale discussions.  I think the point was more to making a statement to the potential based on the overall setup.

Personally, I thought even the discussion of the setup was initially minimized which was a bit conservative  - in my opinion.  I believe it has potential, and have written about it here and on my blog, but like most rational folks realize it is eons away in meteorological terms.

I concur that this would be an excellent opportunity to walk through the mesoscale analysis.  I have bugged Gary for quite some time about taking an event like this and to do a "learning" blog on the basics of a skew T.  Just the basics.

Good to see ya Notes!  Still waiting on some of your forecasts...LOL

Mama, I have to agree with you, I was thinking the same thing about that previous 'severe threat'.  It also reminds me of the way this entire winter has been.  We'd be in the bulleye for a storm, and then the closer event time gets, the more it starts backing away.  

So, until it's 24 hours out, I'm taking all these major storms with a grain of salt.  Nice to know the potential is there, but I'm not going to get excited.  :o)

Hey Kristi, sure hope everything is ok.

Piling on or not, it just seems like a lot of splitting hairs here today.  To what end?

Scott - Next time you put out a long range forecast, let me know and I'll do the same.  Not some generalized "active period for the last half of the month" kind of thing, but something with teeth.  After you do that, I'll show you my long range method/results and we can pit them against one-another for fun.

Kristi, in the time it took me to write that, I missed your response, I'm so sorry, will definately hope for the best for them both.

praying for u and your family kristi. There is still hope for you, i know several people with lung cancer that have good luck with chemo. I hope for all the best with ya.

I'm not getting excited either. I still recall a couple of years ago when TWC was out in KCK because the set up was supposedly the same as on May 4th, 2003. Well that was hyped all over the place and I don't think Lenexa even saw a raindrop.
However, I might get excited some time on Thursday :)
Jeri

When do you realistically see this garbage coming to an end?  Are we going to have any spring, or is it just going to go from this cold junk to summerlike heat?

Thanks,
Matt

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Matt,

It will realistically be spring this week.

Gary

I think I remember reading that the ECMWF has been pretty good with the central troughing phases this year, but on this storm may be an outlier.  In the last few days, it has been both faster and slower than other models.

I haven't tried to use the UKMET ever for CONUS forecasts...Gary, how good is it?  I used it with NOGAPS for tropics, but not here.  Curious if I should add it to the already complex mess of data I already look at.  LOL

If the storm does indeed slow down, likely the severe threat changes, but not necessarily goes away.  If more nocturnal, then SCAPE could reduce..but would pick up even more LLJ. Maybe giving way to sustained elevated instability and would likely begin to congeal along the nose of the LLJ/frontogenesis  With the huge sheer/lift values I would still expect large hail and wind.

So...this is the key to waiting on the specifics...though I typically have found success picking a view, weighing it with recent past tracks/trends, surface analysis and the LRC and go with it.  This method is definitely not one used by the majority.

LOL

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Scott,

The UKMET is something that you should at least glance at. It is a middle model, today, between the ECMWF and the GFS.

Gary

kristi my thoughts are with you and your family, try and enjoy this beautiful day.

WeatherDude Said:

"I think that we really could have some severe weather agreeing with chfs327..."

Ive been here since November and This is only 1 of 2 people that have agreed with me on this blog.

Now Since it is now looking more toward more rich Moisture and now it looks like it is becoming like the Triple Point setup for some good Severe outbreak.

The Reason that I think it will happen is because The SFC has had the same area for 3 days straight for severe weather and since the NWS and the SFC are both urging people to look into the latest forecasts means that it might accualy happen.

Notes, it seems to often [myself included] we get to splitting hairs.  I think everyone has a different hair to split and is more evident at one time or another.  Mine has been consistency in communication and yours the LRC.

I would love to take you up on your challenge.  I wished we had done it sooner this season when I put out a series of long range forecasts.  I had done it from November thru March.

We must agree on what is considered long range and how it will be measured.  You know me, the longer the better..and I am fearless [or stupid] in making it specific to within a day or two.

I think it would be a hoot...are you sure you want to go down this bunny trail?

;-)

The frost potential is a clear hazard tonight for those plants, otherwise it's common.  The latest frost is May 7th.  Thursdays storm show some potential, but I think it's highly over rated for now.  It looks to move too quickly and be more of a episode for our friends to our east and southeast.  
However, we've all come to our knees with the GFS maps, etc. and it's clear whoever gets the storms will have a short lived event.  It's not a big rain maker.
I think you'll see with the cooler spring, the real storm potential will be delayed until mid May at best.

I just checked the nws discussion, and they said even if the storm slows down, rotating supercells will still be possible overnight. they are still saying there could be a significant severe weather outbreak, doesn't sound like they are changing their thinking much..

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Everything they are saying is fine, but for us, we want to wait to see about the timing of this storm, and we are waiting until we know a bit more about some of the other factors.  We are not waiting to tell you that there is a chance that we will have severe thunderstorms possible later in the week.

Gary

Kristi, hope all turns out well and we will all be here for you

As many of the updated afternoon discussions have come out, its interesting to read the differences between TOP/ICT/EAX.  It gives you a feel for things.  

Heck, ICT basically bailed on the mid term discussion and deferred to the HPC.  LOL

Moisture or no moisture, that is the question?  Where will the ULL track?  

I think the ULL will be fine..really..its the moisture.  Moisture return is going to have to be vigorous...

I think we get lower 60s late.  

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And Scott, this is exactly my point.  Our opinion is, well, it is still evolving. It isn't a cop-out, as we have a chance of severe thunderstorms in the forecast, but it just is too early to analyze the details.

Gary

the thing about nws and spc discussions, is that they can make ambiguous blanket statements like 'the potential for significant severe weather exists later this week' because they cover such a larger area spectrum wise that there will likely be some severe weather SOMEWHERE whereas when kshb makes predictions, it is clearly for the viewing area.  if the storm decides to lift 100 miles sooner than expected, the nws will still be right where it would completely miss the viewing area.  not to mention that thursday is 4 days away anyway.  and this isnt exactly an analogous year weatherwise.  so no one, including computer models, know what to expect.  beyond day 3, most of computer models data is based upon climatology as much as actual weather patterns anyway.

i never understood peoples infatuations with getting all worked up over potential storms of any kind so far in advance.  they only exception to that would be hurricanes.  they deserve the extra attention because they are so large scale compared to anything else.  

Pvt_murphy, I completly disagree with you on your believe that weather predictions beyond day 3 are based on climatology. You could clearly see a large storm system on the west coast, and make a prediction it will rain in 3-4 days. Also, our temperatures right now are not an average temperature, and a frost was could be seen on the weather models atleast 3 days out, which proves it is not based on climatology. so I am having a hard time understanding why you believe beyond day 3, most of computer models is based upon climatology.

Gary, can you provide the counties in your DMA?  I would guess it is not vastly different in size or location than the CWA that EAX supports.  

I would venture to guess that the KSHB signal reaches out both into the SGF and TOP WFOs as well.

Climatology is one factor in the models, but I am not sure it is weighted as heavily as you describe above, Pvt.  But - your point is taken.

I generally agree with the SPC thoughts, but think the NWS is a bit more detailed and specific to its coverage area.

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DMA stands for designated market area.  We go down to Anderson county, west to Franlin, Shawnee, and Jefferson counties, and we go to the Iowa border north of St. Joseph, and then east to Pettis county.

Gary

Thanks everyone!  It's much appreciated!

My dad has an abdominal CT scan in the AM.  Then my parents go see the pulmonary specialist next Friday (May 9th).  I will keep you updated.

I am looking forward to warmer weather.  It's still too far out to get excited about Thurs.  I will wait and see what happens.

Kristi

One last thought...hurricanes are interesting beyond three days because of the relative size and nature of the storm.

Consider large continental or extratropical storms can also cover broad areas of land and water as well.

Most damage in tropical storms come from flooding as they do on land, so based on the size of potential rainfall with large systems, I can clearly see why people are interested to get as much advanced warning as possible.

As far as tornadoes, because of intrinsic fear of such a powerful force of nature, the draw to knowing if they are possible ahead of time is also likely the same as the powerful winds of hurricanes.

aww kristi, im sorry... i hope everything turns out for the better!

and chfs327, YES i agree *high five* but still quite a few unknown elements remain in place for our specific area.... just like pvt_murphy said... but scott u make a really good point about the hurricanes, its just tornadoes are sooo centrally located over a much smaller area, its hard to specifiy where u may get hit until the storm has already formed... which i hope most shood know :D.

lol and gary, do u kno if u got my email? THX!

dude,

Yeah...this is true.  But in an tornado outbreak environment, it is possible for each storm that forms to turn tornadic.  So, any rumble of thunder will make you think...regardless if it is producing tornadoes or not.

I think that is the draw or concern of many.

Now, this upcoming setup is not perfect.  It is not a gimme.  But, its far from a situation that does not warrant attention and close supervision.  It may bust, but we are only an ingredient or so away...much different than a typical setup where many ingredients may be missing or may only produce marginally severe storms based on setup analysis.

Gary, thanks for the DMA answer.

Looks like your DMA is about the same coverage area as EAX forecasting area...and a bit of TOP.

Large area to validate forecasts with just results from KMCI.  Makes you wonder....

Some fun reading as we are talking about models recently...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/mdlbias/biastext.shtml

Also, looks like VA got hit today.  

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080429/ap_on_re_us/severe_weather

Based on the storm report times for the tornadoes and the time the WW was issued, the SPC may have been a bit suprised.  They did hit it with a convective outlook yesterday, but even that was lightly worded.