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SO does this mean that there is a Possibility for Overnight Tornadoes.

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Please don't even worry about it yet.  It is only Monday night.  All we really know is there is a chance of thunderstorms, possibly severe late Thursday into Friday.

Gary

I guess now I am finally coming into realization we are a little far out. I think we will have a good handle by tomorrow night, don't you Gary?

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No, I don't think we will have a good handle on it until around Thursday afternoon. It is just the way weather forecasting works. But, we will be close enough for our first calculated forecast.

Gary

well, i'll be up all night tonight. im working on my english paper for my final. im writing 8- 15 pages about meteorology. i probably will include you theory in it gary.

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Randy,

Let me know if you have any questions.

Gary

I loved it! And Thank You for showing my Brothers!! How did you like the Lightning in the second graphic? I was able to use Ulead to make it.

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I liked it Andrew!

 

Gary

Gary, I watched you tonite at 5 and 10.  Both times you stood directly in front of your extended forecast.  It wouldn't be a problem except you haven't been updating your extended on the website until the next day.  I was interested in this weekend's forecast.

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I'm sorry.  It is a bad habit.  I won't do it on Tuesday.

Gary

I thought they were awesome!!! Great job boys. Man...hard to believe they were not in the top ten.
Monica

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Monica,

Thanks!  There are some more good ones, which we will show on the 5 PM newscast.

Gary

As murph said in the previous blog, there's not much to be concerned with a few days out except for hurricanes and possibly potential blizzards. The only thing for blizzards is just to make sure you have enough firewood in case you lose power.  Hurricanes, however, cause damage that is so widespread that you need to plan on evacuations and other potential fuel resources. When Gloria hit us in 1985, we lost power for three days. We were a little inland and Gloria was only a cat 1 one when it hit us.  However, it was a cat 4 the day before. You spend the day boarding up windows before the storm hits and hopefully don't have to worry. Unfortunately, a tree came down and left a pretty good hole in our roof during the storm.

Gary:

Good morning to you sir!!! Currently sitting at 37 degrees under partly cloudy skies. Pretty nice out this morning to be honest!!!

A couple random thoughts that as always I hope they make at least a little sense!!

1. Since it doesn't take much to amuse me, I really found it interesting following the temps. last night. One thing I noticed at around 4:30 P.M. outside and on satelite was that high clouds were beginning to enter the area and I started to wonder if they weren't due to a return flow beginning to set up. Looking at the surface observations from around 6:00 P.M. it did appear that the High may slide off to our East and this morning confimed that-the high is in east central Missouri and I think Kirksville has a reading of 28 degrees. I find this interesting in just how variable our weather really is-just a 70 mile movement of that high pressure changed the whole over night tempertaures. It allowed us to go into more of a southerly flow and for some clouds to move in which kept temps. up last night. Does this make any sense?? LOL For sure, too much wording for something so mundane as temperatures, but I still find it fascinating!!!

2. Euro and Gfs are still at odds on the track of the surface/upper level low later this week even though both ar beginning to slow it down.  Like in Rush's Bytor and The Snow Dog, the battle has been drawn!!! However, the Euro has began a northward trend while the GFS has been very consitent in its placement. If the GFS is correct man the Western Dakota's and Estern Montana could be in for a major mid Spring snow storm!! It will be interesting to follow this today and tomorrow as the GFS and Euro should begin to come together a bit more. My guess is that since the Euro is beginning to trend North and with the GFS that the GFS has the right idea. Again, does this make sense??? LOL!!!!

As always, thanks so much for reading!!!! Have a great day and like yesterday I hope you can get out and enjoy the weather today-it is going to be some nice day!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

Yes, just northwest of the upper low a blizzard is likely.   Have a great day.

Gary

Kristi: I tried to PM you yesterday but not sure if it worked or not-you are in my thoughts and prayers!!!!!

In case youhave not noticed VA got hit hard with tornadoes yesturday

So does that mean there could be overnight tornados? And thunderstorms? Will it be sct'd suppercells or a line/complex of storms cuz I like the supercell one and then a complex of storms. Byan.

This is what NOAA siad will happen on thursday. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .


...SYNOPSIS...
  BROAD MID/UPPER CYCLONE NOW OFFSHORE PACIFIC NW AND BC WILL SHIFT
  ESEWD ACROSS PACIFIC NW AND OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN ROCKIES BY
  1/12Z.  LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OFFSHORE ORE SHOULD EJECT NWD
  ACROSS MT DAY-2 AND REINFORCE/MERGE WITH CYCLONE CORE OVER SRN AB BY
  START OF THIS PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...VORTICITY LOBE -- NOW EVIDENT IN
  MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER GULF OF AK...IS FCST TO REVOLVE SWD
  THEN SEWD AROUND UPPER CYCLONE AND AMPLIFY CONSIDERABLY...REACHING
  CENTRAL ROCKIES OR CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY 2/00Z.  MODEL
  INCONSISTENCIES DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK WITH THIS SHORTWAVE
  TROUGH...AND WITH LOCATION OF ASSOCIATED SFC CYCLONE ALONG COLD
  FRONT...EXTEND INTO DAY-3 PERIOD...AND WILL AFFECT LOCATION/STRENGTH
  OF GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL.
 
  PRIND SFC LOW SHOULD LIFT NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/N-CENTRAL KS EARLY IN
  PERIOD AND BE LOCATED SOMEWHERE OVER ERN NEB BY 2/00Z...WITH COLD
  FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL/SERN KS...N-CENTRAL THROUGH
  W-CENTRAL/SW OK AND TX PANHANDLE.  DRYLINE SHOULD INTERSECT FRONT
  INVOF N-CENTRAL OK AND EXTEND SSWWD ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL/SRN OK
  AND N-CENTRAL/NW TX.  COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE DRYLINE OVERNIGHT
  AND MOVE EWD INTO MO...AND SEWD ACROSS ERN OK AND WRN/NRN TX.
 
  ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...LOWER MO VALLEY...
  SOMEWHAT TIGHTLY CLUSTERED SVR OUTBREAK IS POSSIBLE -- INCLUDING
  SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE/DAMAGING HAIL AND POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT
  TORNADOES.  ATTM...CONSENSUS OF SREF AND OPERATIONAL PROGS INDICATES
  PORTIONS ERN KS...NERN OK...AND WRN MO MAY HAVE MAXIMUM OVERALL
  POTENTIAL.  HOWEVER...NON-TRIVIAL THREAT EXTENDS NWD TOWARD SERN
  NEB/SRN IA/NRN MO AND SWD OVER ERN OK/NWRN AR.  UNCERTAINTIES
  PRECLUDING GREATER PROBABILITIES ATTM INVOLVE TRACK/INTENSITY OF SFC
  LOW AND RELATED LOW LEVEL FORCING...NWD EXTENT OF MOST FAVORABLE
  RETURN FLOW MOISTURE...AND CAPPING ALONG/AHEAD OF DRYLINE OVER ERN
  OK AND RED RIVER REGION.  AS SOME OF THESE MESOSCALE DETAILS BECOME
  BETTER RESOLVED...CATEGORICAL RISK UPGRADE IS POSSIBLE FOR THIS FCST
  PERIOD.
 
  STRONGER DEEP-LAYER FORCING IS FCST TO LIFT NEWD ACROSS LOWER MO
  VALLEY REGION DURING DAY...WITH EARLIER INITIATION OF STG-SVR TSTMS
  LIKELY THAN FARTHER S WHERE SBCINH WILL BE STRONGER AND LOW LEVEL
  CONVERGENCE SOMEWHAT WEAKER.  NRN PORTION OUTLOOK INCLUDES
  CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL OF RELATIVELY SMALL/LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WITH
  TORNADOES AND HAIL JUST NE-E OF SFC LOW.  FARTHER S...LARGE
  LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...STRONGER CAPPING...GREATER LOW LEVEL
  MOISTURE AND STRONGER HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOMEWHAT MAXIMIZED
  POTENTIAL FOR DISCRETE....WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT
  OF SUPERCELLS WITH POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE OVER ERN OK AND
  SERN KS.  DEVELOPMENT FARTHER S TOWARD N-CENTRAL TX BECOMES
  PROGRESSIVELY MORE CONDITIONAL...ESPECIALLY BEFORE DARK.  BAND OF
  SVR TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE BY AROUND 02/06Z FROM MO SWWD ACROSS ERN
  OK/WRN AR AND PERHAPS NE TX...WITH THREAT EVOLVING MORE TOWARD
  DAMAGING WIND...BUT WITH TORNADOES AND HAIL STILL POSSIBLE.

Who was the honorary mention at 6:00 pm?  We enjoyed Brandon and Colin but missed the 6pm broadcast.

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Megan Osborn was the one at 6 PM. The judges felt she was one of the top ones, but the viewers didn't vote her in the top 10.  Man, I feel like Ryan Seacrest, that's scary.

Gary