NBC Action Communities

Blogs, Forums, Photo Galleries and Event Calendars
Welcome to NBC Action Communities Sign in | Join | Help
in
Back to NBCActionNews.com Home Blogs Forums Photos Calendar

NBC Action Weather Blog

Tuesday model trends

Good evening everyone,

I am about to go on the air at 6 PM on NBC Action News.  We will be going over Thursday's set up, and there was a slowing down of the surface features on the latest GFS model.  Our in house Powercast, our new high resolution compter model, has a slower solution as well.  If it slows down, the low level moisture will have a better chance of getting here.  Right now, I am buying the slower solution, and this would imply the first severe weather threat arrives sometime Thursday evening.

Watch our newscasts for updates.  Meteorologist Brett Anthony will be covering the developments as we move into Wednesday morning beginning at 5 AM.  It should be a nice day Wednesday.  Is it the calm before the storm?

Gary

Published Tuesday, April 29, 2008 5:51 PM by glezak

Comments

 

twister11 said:

so gary, does that mean the storms will be over night? will they be weaker if they fire at night, because we wont have any sun?

------------

I'm not sure yet.  We just have to wait and see how it sets up, and how the timing changes.

Gary

April 29, 2008 6:02 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Hurray. I might go chasing. Moderate Risk Here we come.
April 29, 2008 6:04 PM
 

twister11 said:

Yep chfs mod risk does look likely on thursday... but where is the question
April 29, 2008 6:06 PM
 

Scott said:

Keep your eye on the bouncing ball..or in this case the closing off ULL.

;-)

The European has shown this pretty well and the GFS was the outlier.  Now, its coming together.
April 29, 2008 6:10 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Probabily down near Harrisionville over toward WAFB and Butler.
April 29, 2008 6:11 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

hmmm a slowing down, more moisure... it does seem to be coming together... and tornado chasing wood be fun... take me with u chfs327! lol

April 29, 2008 6:18 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Up Northwestward toward Levenworth going over to Topeka and going back toward Harrisionville.
April 29, 2008 6:21 PM
 

twister11 said:

we will see chfs. I would not be surprised if it is to our west, since it has slowed down, and the storms could turn linear once they get towards western Missouri.
April 29, 2008 6:22 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Weatherdude you are awesome.

Gary Do u think that The Metro will be under the Moderate risk. Or do you still think its going to be more south and east of us.
April 29, 2008 6:23 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Wow A dust Storm in Reno.
April 29, 2008 6:25 PM
 

twister11 said:

can you believe that MO has had more tornadoes than KS so far this season? That is somewhat unusual.
April 29, 2008 6:34 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Considering the Weather this year. Yeah its somewhat unusual. Its Kansas so hopefully we will pass them in the next month
April 29, 2008 6:39 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Still waiting more board Members.

I guess later tonight the SPC will finally put a Moderate Risk for somewhere. If they dont by Wed. Night I will be Shocked
April 29, 2008 6:52 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

lol true... last year we murdered Missouri in storm reports, and chfs327, thx! lol

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/2007_annual_summary.html

and i also found another interesting link regarding the Kansas City area... referring to the chart under: Annual Report Information

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/EAX.html

of course the curve could mean many different things, including increased spotters and increased populaions reporting them or...

something different? lol
April 29, 2008 6:56 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

chfs327

SPC will not put another outlook concerning Thursday's potentional until between 3:30 and 4:00 am tomorrow.
April 29, 2008 7:25 PM
 

chfs327 said:

176 to 54. Huge different

Anyway I see that it being the Increased Population.

The Wilder the weather Gets. The More I get out of it.
April 29, 2008 7:31 PM
 

twister11 said:

adam penney, I thought the day 2 outlook is issued around 1 am?
April 29, 2008 7:32 PM
 

chfs327 said:

4Am = Later tonight.
April 29, 2008 7:32 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

twister 11 you are correct. I was thinking of the Day 3 outlook.

My bad...
April 29, 2008 7:46 PM
 

chfs327 said:

ohh well.

The Ice Cream Truck is going on behind me.

Oh well. The Moderate risk will be something to look forward to.
April 29, 2008 7:59 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

interesting
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/rda/EAX7.gif

Olathe has not had a tornado since at least 1980!!
April 29, 2008 8:24 PM
 

juba said:

What, are we in ar emoderate risk, or not! My question for gary later wile I go check.
April 29, 2008 8:25 PM
 

juba said:

Gary, can you tell me what the times are in the computer, for exemple: what is 12z?
April 29, 2008 8:26 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

Dont get too exited. Last week I went chasing in KS. Almost a complete bust. Luckily Storms developed near the triple point. Not one Storm fired in the Moderate Risk. NWS can, and has had many busted forecasts.


Personally I believe storms may not fire until early evening. Tornado threat doesnt seem that high as of now. Wind and Hail threat are somewhat impressive though.
April 29, 2008 8:27 PM
 

chfs327 said:

It feels like theres only 4 board members talking and everyone else is alsleep. Even Gary isnt contrubiting to the convosation.

Ohh well. Hopefully more people will come into the board.
April 29, 2008 8:27 PM
 

jacob said:

Hey Scott!  Do you think this could be our first major severe weather outbreak?  Also, do YOU think we have a chance of being under a moderate risk or even a high  risk?  I think we have a chance of being uder a moderate risk at some point, but for some reason, I have a feeling that the SPC will place it south and east of KC.  But thats just what I think.
April 29, 2008 8:29 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

12z -5 and u get 7am.

0z - 5 u get 7pm
April 29, 2008 8:31 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Everyone Springs up when i post.
April 29, 2008 8:33 PM
 

twister11 said:

the moderate risk may be just west of us, you never know..
April 29, 2008 8:36 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

I'm just popping in to say "hi" because chfs327 is here.

That is all.
April 29, 2008 8:40 PM
 

twister11 said:

..lol notes.
April 29, 2008 8:44 PM
 

Roberto said:

 LVStormSpotter said:
12z -5 and u get 7am.

0z - 5 u get 7pm

Is that eastern, central, mountain, or western? Thanks!
April 29, 2008 8:44 PM
 

twister11 said:

andrew, more places have not had a tornado, than have had a tornado. not that surprising.
April 29, 2008 8:45 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Notes I concur....im only here because chfs327 is here.

His posts are so inspiring.
April 29, 2008 8:46 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

well i figured i would contribute to the conversation somehow with my prediction for thursday...
at some point tomorrow a moderate risk for severe  weather will be issued. i have not pinned point an area but i believe the majority of the risk area will be to the south of the metro.
on thursday i see a small area of high risk coming out. also the majority of severe storms will contain large hail and straight line wind. i am not ruling out a tornado or two or three. but i believe it will be mother natures introduction of the spring to come!!!
April 29, 2008 8:47 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Hi Notes. Hurray for accual Reckonishion.
April 29, 2008 8:49 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

that is central time. subtract 5 for central
April 29, 2008 8:51 PM
 

twister11 said:

??? Reckonishion ...??
April 29, 2008 8:51 PM
 

LRCfan said:

I know Gary will keep us updated,but you have to have every thing come together here to get a severe storm outbreak it seems sometimes that is difficult to occur more times than not it splits around kc.
April 29, 2008 8:52 PM
 

Greg said:

Soccer tournament in Topeka this weekend, how cloudy, windy and cold can we expect it to be? Oh, almost forgot to ask, when's our next chance of snow?...
April 29, 2008 8:52 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

I definitely expect a moderate risk. Right now I believe it may be as far north as the Atchison area, westward to maybe topeka, and spreading south and east.
April 29, 2008 8:55 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

yes......RECKONISHION......is always good.
April 29, 2008 8:55 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

Greg! POSSIBLE BLIZZARD this weekend!!!!!!



If you go to Dairy Queen!

: )
April 29, 2008 8:57 PM
 

twister11 said:

lol, adam, Guess I need to get some reckonishion.
April 29, 2008 8:59 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Twister,

I know, but here in Olathe it seems like tornadoes always go around us.
April 29, 2008 9:03 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Andrew, and thats and bad thing?.........

I know you want excitement but I don't think you really want a tornado to go through Olathe.
April 29, 2008 9:14 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Lol. *The Other Station* Has a Moderate risk to the south and the Slight risk over the Metro then a Moderate risk up north.

I would like the Moderate risk over The KC area so that I can go storm chasing. Anyway..

The comments are always good. This is even better because all i did was spam the boards with the Ice Storm thing. Ohh well theres always next year.

I will be one of the few that would want a tornado to go through the Northwest Part of Olathe since all there is out there is Farm Land and Construction for Houses. All though most of the nice houses are overthere. Who knows whats gonna happen

Its Kansascity. Anything can happen. Even an Ice Storm in May.
April 29, 2008 9:26 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

Other station lol. I hope it aint the one I am thinking of. They are just aweful!!!

But yeah, purposely keeping the city out of a slight and the north and south in a moderate is just stupid. Makes no sense.

April 29, 2008 9:31 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

chfs327......what do you know about storm chasing? Tell me with a dryline/cold front set-up...where would you target? What parameters would you look for?

I am just trying to help you get some reckonishion.
April 29, 2008 9:36 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

P.S. when does ANY station put out their OWN convective outlooks?

I have personally never seen this. Correct me if im wrong.

I can find nothin on this topic from the "other" station.
April 29, 2008 9:41 PM
 

twister11 said:

sometimes I like to watch the other station for a good laugh. I dont know what we would do with out KSHB, seriously. Other places either hype it overboard, or take it lightly, and then blame it on mother nature when they are wrong. sorry, but I dont see why KSHB just cant run them all out of town.
April 29, 2008 9:43 PM
 

Greg said:

Guys, chill, I think he's just a kid!
April 29, 2008 9:45 PM
 

chfs327 said:

#1 I dont know alot about storm chasing. I will probabily wait untill around 6:30 and go on the Backside and the south side of the storms. This is only if the Storms will be in the KC Metro.

#2 The other station is *Hopefully my message wont be deleted* is Fox 4. They had where the Moderate risk was south of Harrisionville and eastward into the Springfield Area. Had a Slight risk around the KC area and into Nebraska and iowa. And then a Moderate risk in the DeMoine area.
April 29, 2008 9:52 PM
 

chfs327 said:

They had it on during the 9:15 news, I have it on tape.

---------------

ohhhh, so you are watching the competition.  LOL

Gary

April 29, 2008 9:56 PM
 

twister11 said:

chfs. i dwouldnt go chasing if u dont know a lot about it. just my advice
April 29, 2008 10:00 PM
Anonymous comments are disabled
 

This Blog

Post Calendar

<April 2008>
SuMoTuWeThFrSa
303112345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
27282930123
45678910

Syndication
Inergize Digital Media This site powered by Inergize Digital Media. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of this station.