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Back during 1993 during the Great Flood of '93, for some reason I can't remember us having a real active Severe Weather season. It was stormy - very much so to give us the flooding we had - but we did not have many severe weather events I can remember.

Correct me if I'm wrong.

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We had a few severe weather events during the spring of 1993.  But, this weather pattern is very different.

Gary

gary, do you think these storms will weaken at all overnight??

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We need to see if the thunderstorms form first.  Once they form the conditions are favorable for them to stay strong through early morning.

Gary

Do you think that most of the storms will go SE of the metro or do you think that most of the people will get hit.

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If supercells form they will likely be isolated...but contain the possibility of more significant severe weather.  If a squall line forms overnight the chances are better that it would move thru a good part of the area.  This would probably be more wind and hail threat.

Jeremy 

k gary!    

I hope we get some strong storms overnight, but I really hope the front holds off untill a bit later on Friday so there will some warm weather in the morning when our class goes fishing....The only problem is...I think it maybe rainy, and stormy, and the fishing will be canceled.


Alex from Marceline

Im curious to see if the SPC puts us in a Moderate risk in their 7am update. 60+ dewpoints are surging northward thru Oklahoma and it looks like the deeper moisture is making it into central Texas. Things could get interesting. I wonder if the upper level energy will arrive by the time the cap breaks later this evening to further intensify some of the storms or if it will show up later tonight when a squall line forms. Any thoughts?

Gary said, "But, right now I lean toward the areas to the southeast not getting much at all, unless the thunderstorms hold together into sunrise on Friday."

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Gary, I thought you said conditions are favorable for them to hold together through overnight. I was reading the HWO out of springfield, they said that the linear line overnight may break up into supercells when it gets to the Highway 65 corridor.

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Exactly, if they hold together. If you were to look at 100 thunderstorm events, the most likely time for them to fall apart is early in the morning, and then redevelopment sometimes then occurs.  I am not saying it won't happen.

Gary

Looks like we dodged the biggest bullet (tornado threat) this time!  WHEW!  Now we can enjoy a good ole thunderstorm, with minumum chance of damage or loss of life.  Those are always the best one's to enjoy.  Even though there looks to be a chance of hail or possible wind gusts, looks to be a good show.  I hope I don't jinks myself, there is a possibility of of seeing no storms at all tonight!  Go instability, knock the cap right off of this thing!  Jim in Clinton

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Jim,

We haven't dodged the bullet yet.  Let's keep paying close attention.

Gary

Moderare risk

Since weather has so many variables, and sometimes (most times!) even our local weather people will disagree about where, when, what time, I like to go to the web sites that the storm chasers "talk" on.  I really like www.stormtrack.org.  Reed Timmer, who has been on The Weather Channel, again and again and again has a great site at www.tornadovideos.net.  He is getting very excited about severe potential in Kansas for today.  On www.spotternetwork.org you can see where the 2100 registered storm chasers are headed on any given day.  Trust me, if I see chasers hauling tail up I-35 from Oklahoma to N.E. Kansas, then we should start getting our tornado plans finalized!  Does anyone else have favorite websites they would like to share with our community?  

Well, Moderate risk is to the south of us. Hmm, wonder if anything will change later. I wouldn't have thought that that that area would have been the target area since the stronger forcing is further north. I'm sure it will change a couple of more times before the storms initiate. AAARGHH

Looks like SPC has us some of the veiwing area in a Moderate Risk now.

Whoa, the SPC is freakin me out. The first 1 day Conv outlook had the Moderate risk to the south and I just looked at it again and it is eastern Kansas????? I guess they were still working on it at 8am...LOL  Ok now things look more in line.

Well, as I cannot chase today, I don't have the pressures of putting out a true target, but my virtual chase target will be Emporia, KS today.  If I could position myself anywhere by this afternoon, Emporia would be it...and then drift NE with the supercell(s) that would hopefully break the cap after dinner.

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Notes,

At just a glance, I agree.

Gary

It seems as though some nice forcing will be available along the warm front itself and that area isn't getting much attention as the cap will be a bit stronger to the north, but I do think that IA needs to pay attention to a significant threat today as well.

There are going to be some mongo hail stones tossed around in our area tonight...good night to park in the garage.

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Notes,

I agree with the hail threat, but bow echoes could be dominant as well with damaging winds just as much of a threat later tonight.  The new RUC has the secondary surface low forming over southwestern Kansas. 

Gary

Hurray Moderate Risk wins again.

754am update from SPC:

THE INITIAL STORMS SHOULD BE SUPERCELLS...A FEW OF WHICH MAY BE
  HIGH-BASED.  INCREASING FRONTAL UPLIFT AND BACKING UPR FLOW SHOULD
  FAVOR STORM MERGERS AND SQLN DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT /EARLY FRIDAY
  AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES E INTO MO.  STRENGTH OF LOW- TO
  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR
  LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND AND PERHAPS A COUPLE TORNADOES.

I will be tracking later.  It sounds like storms will not start forming until late this afternoon..

Kristi

I mentioned late yesterday that the severe threat at night is completely different than when it is still light out.  Now that we are seeing the SPC say that a majority of the severe potential will happen just before dark and through the overnight hours, can you offer any advice as to how best to prepare for such an event?

chfs,
Your cheering for bad weather is irritating.  I am not in the mood to read it.  If I could, I would put you on ignore.

Kristi  

If we are in a Supercell im gonna open my Garage and watch the storm.

Hurray Moderate risk.

My Mom always says. The Most Complex Situations will eventuly turn good. This one just has.

**************

Chiefs...your energy and love for the weather is appreciated.  But please try to keep your excitement contained today.  Supercells are beautiful sight from a distance...but being under one can be a different experience.  Let's have a great discussion today and please keep the cheering in check.

Jeremy

Even though i hate it waking me up i think my weather radio will be on tonight.

Ok. ill try to calm down a little bit.

Do you think that the Olathe City Track Meet Will get in Or do you think the developement of a Supercell will cut some of the event down.

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Chfs327,

First of all thanks.  If you get excited, jump up and down, run around the room if you have to, but in here just keep other peoples feelings in mind.  There is a way to express yourself the right way in our blog.  So, thank you for working on this.

It looks dry for your track meet.  The threat really moves in at the earliest sunset, and more likely later.

Gary

Turn your weather radio on so you can hear any warnings that are issued for your area.  If you don't have a weather radio, I suggest you get one.  Have stuff down in your basement (flashlight, pillows, and blankets) and make sure that things are secured outside or moved indoors.

Kristi

I knew we would have stormy weather today.  It is another Band concert night at the school where I teach!  There is always at least one concert during the year when I'm nervously watching storms (spring or winter).

I'm thankful to be able to check in on the blog throughout the day and see any updates.  Thank you, Weather Team!

DL

Trentonite, I like to plan ahead of severe weather and gather up (maybe) needed supplies (just in case) there should be damage in our neighborhood.  Some people think I over-react to tornado watches, but our house was hit by a tornado when I was 13 years old and I now have a very healthy respect for storms.  Some of the item sI put into a plastic laundry basket:
  battery operated radio with extra batteries
  water bottles
  snack items/granola bars/whatever we have on hand
  first aid kit
  purse/wallet/car keys
  jacket or hoodie
  flashlights/extra batteries/candles/matches
  medications
I'm sure some people may snicker at this list.  But these items are ones you will want by your side should your home recieve damage during a storm.  I also make sure everyone has on a good pair of shoes before we have to go to the basement.  The tornado that hit our house killed all but one girl out of a family of 6.  She survived because she was OUTSIDE PLAYING when the tornado hit their trailer!  She suffered multiple injuries but survived.  This girl ws a year older in school than me and her experience made me a believer in preperation.

Kristi- you had a chasing website that was awesome- can you share that again- I thought I saved it- I hope your parents are OK-

This is gonna be a long night, I can already tell. I will have some girls up tonight if this materializes for me down here!! I already know were I am stashing all my vehicles, LOL!! We only have a one car garage but have 3 vehicles. Ugh! It seems to be more windy this am than yesterday.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Hi Gary,

I noticed as I driving driving in from the Northland that the clouds were traveling from a western direction to the northeast, but they were in rows.  Some of the rows were moving faster than the others.  It was and incredible site and as I looked around, other drivers were looking up to the sky as we all drove toward downtown.  

Thanks for your time.

Donna

I've noticed this year most the events people have chased and that I have, have been after dark.. I'm just about expecting the same out of this event, which is a shame because night chasing is alot more dangerous and difficult and more people aren't as aware of the weather late at night for public safety.

I would venture to guess the SPC is leaning for a few supercells in the Flint Hills then for it to become a line afterwards with only 5% tornado odds and a moderate risk

After midnight?

Thats why I keep plenty of foam earplugs in stock for these occasions.

Sleep like A Baby

Good morning! Storm? What storm?

is it me, or does the newest NAM have a more southern solution?

I have not heard any mention on the amount of rain we can expect from these storms--any insight as to how much we will see?? Or, is the main threat large hail and winds??

I am kinda ticked off about my weather radio. We do not have a tower here in Linn County so I have mine programmed for Franklin, Bourbon and Linn Co in hopes that a tower signal will be picked up. However the only warnings I get are the ones issued out of Springfield MO...all the warning for SE Kansas and SW MO come across my radio but not the ones for Franklin, Allen, Linn etc. The way storms move having my radio go off for the SE KS counties does me no good. I need it to go off for the ones to my southwest. I hear them mention all the counties to my southeast but never to my southwest. Can someone help me out here. What am I doing wrong? I wonder if I add Allen Co if that will help me.....but I think I will still here all about SE KS and SW MO. Not Allen, Franklin and Linn? We are stuck in the middle.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

Good morning weather team. Currently sitting at 71.3 here at 130th and State Avenue in KCK with a strong South wind at 21 MPH. Highest gust so far is 28 MPH. More important though, I have a dewpoint of 56. Will check in later.

Kristi, while I agree there should be an ignore button, keep good thoughts in her mind about your parents health today.  Last thing you need to worry about right now is the weather later on this evening, if you know what I mean.

Keri

Ok....So where is Scott hiding at this morning?

Should be an interesting afternoon & evening. I to get excited when we get these potential developments, it's not to often we get to see mother nature at work.

I think some are to uptight when others express thier excitement for mothernature.

Those who get upset are the same ones who root for the major snowstorms, blizzards etc. Just my 2cents.

Kind regards

Well the sun is trying to break through a bit here in St. Joe, well what can I say, the first Mod. risk for us this season.  It is really neat seeing the low level clouds on the visible, looking as if they are standing still while the higher level clouds shoot off to the north-northeast, the low level clouds almost look like fog slowly trying to form and burn off.  Another thing to note about those low clouds is the horizontal "ripple" or bar structure they have to them on the vis. sat loop, I think that has to do with the southerly wind flow and "up and down" ripples in the stable surface air.  Any way what a massive system over all, with high wind to our southwest, heavy snow to our north west and maybe thunderstorms here later.

I am here, Bryan...I really don't have much to offer.  I have given all my thoughts on the setup, path, expectations and the analysis why.  The last few blog entries here and my own blog have my thoughts...I hate to say it as I will be criticized..but not much has changed for awhile in my thoughts.

The final piece was reading the NWS/SPC discussions verifying that moisture would be sufficient, though shallow and that the forcing would be a large factor into the cap erosion.

That was my exact discussion with Adam Penny in the last blog last night when he asked why I wasn't concerned about the cap.

I am not overly excited about the inbound weather.  It is not going to go well for some folks.  I am not looking forward to being up all night tonight either!  

While I can appreciate the nervous energy or excitement of some, I think perhaps after a wicked core punch or two [NOT RECOMMENDED], the healthy respect and subsequent human compassion does win out.

It has for me.

Sorry to hear about your parents Kristi, must be tough, hopefully things turn out alright.

Sean cancelled the chase today because of the night time activity. As he pointed out, he and I and a couple of others were in Texas when a severe outbreak went through. We were trying to get back to KS after seeing a few tornadoes touch down already and everywhere we went the doppler showed rotation, so we could not get out of town. We just found a spot on the side of the road behind where we could see wall clouds during a lightning flash and tried to stay out of the way. It is very disconcerting to try to deal with that when you can't see what is going on.
 On another note, there is nothing wrong with having supplies in a plastic bin in the basement just in case.Cindylou has the right idea. Living in southern California, we always had  a large plastic bin in the garage with supplies in case of an earthquake. We also bought a gas grill so we could feed the family if the power went out for a long time. Fortunately, we never experienced any damage in all the quakes we went through, but we were always prepared.

I would suggest model watching [GFS/NAM/etc.] right now is largely a waste of time.  Models will paint the scenerio and some of the basic movements.

We all know what this is now...the true detail of what will happen is now in the sats/wv/radar and surface obs.  

Gary has [and Notes last night] provided some good guidence on looking at surface obs to find your boundaries, both cold and dry.  This is the key.  Also, some mesoscale analysis is handy right now in evaluating the CAPE/CINH and wind

I like the SPC mesoscale products....

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The RUC can still be looked at I think.  Also, on our newscasts we have a new high resolution computer model that is used solely for short range forecasts.  Gary used it last night to show how isolated thunderstorms or supercells may form this evening a a few spots.  Often times there is too much information to look at.

Jeremy

Kristi, news of that nature involving our parents or friends who are dear to us is never easy.  I have been through very tragic times after losing my wife during the birth of my son Gage.  I found that through tough times,  a love of a view of an approaching thunderstorm, the sound of thunder rumbling in the distance and the appreciation of who is responsible for such things, can be as soothing as anything imaginable.  Positive attitude is a must in these situations.  I wish you and your family the best of outcomes and use your love of the weather around us to help you when you need it.  Jim in Clinton.

sorry to hear about your wife Jim.

It looks like the sun might break through and be out for awhile. Will that impact our severe chances?

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The more sunshine we see today would lead to higher temperatures.  The warmer the region gets today and also the higher the dew points climb would lead to an increased chance of severe weather.

Jeremy

Thanks Bryan.  That was nearly 7 years ago and now I am going through dealing with back talking, squirting toothpaste on the mirror and kicking the dog with Gage......all part of being a parent of a 7 year old! LOL.  Jim in Clinton

Ok., I usually don't bother Local St. Joe news media, but this is ridiculous.  I just saw a commercial for a local cable news/weather broadcast that we have here. you know telling you to watch there weather cast to see about forecast changes on the severe weather potential and at the end of the commercial the met.  said and I quote "...and find out if a tornado is on the way."  I have seen local media say some really silly things but that is ridiculous.

****************

To each there own.  There is a better way to say that in our minds...

Jeremy

Here is the site I use for dewpoints.....might be interesting to watch today.  It is updated hourly.  I think it was posted a day or two ago as well.....Jim in Clinton
http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con_dewp.html

To those who feel some people are too touchy about the weather...first let me say I am one of those who gets excited about severe weather but not when it will hurt anyone or damage property. Out in the middle of nowhere was the easiest place me for me to finally see mother nature at work AND with someone trained in this area.
 Secondly, there a couple of people here who take their energy and go way out of proportion with it, desiring calamity and chaos just for fun.
 If you've ever gone to Kristi's web site, she has tons of outdoor photos with many beautiful cloud formations. Kristi appears fairly knowledgeable about storms and appreciates them but like many of us, does not appreciate some of the inane comments by those who have to be told repeatedly to monitor their behavior, yet continue anyway.
 Since I am in a kind mood I am even letting my estranged hubby come over tonight because he doesn't have a basement and I do. :)
Also respectfully, Jeri

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Jeri,

Everyone reacts differently to the possibility of severe weather, snow storms, etc. in different ways.  We just want to make people aware of the risks and to try to calm any fears that people may have. 

Jeremy

Gary, do you think that the secondary low that looks to be forming in northcentral Oklahoma may put is in a more favorable area for earlier storm initiation and intensity as that low moves northeast into east central Kansas? I would imagine that it would help to draw in moisture more rapidly and cause some interesting wind fields as it gets to the I-35 corridor.

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The secondary low is a strong indication that it will be a late initiation of thunderstorms.  That secondary low is forming in response to a strong jet streak (small scale jet stream around 30,000 feet up) rounding the base of the trough over the Rockies.  So, the development of thunderstorms should be later.

Gary

well, things seem to be coming together quite nicely.  my dewpoint is already up to 59 degrees.  my thermometer says 73.7 however it doesnt feel that warm with the wind blowing.  heres hoping the cloud deck stays over us all day, suppressing any unneeded convection, there will be enough for a few warnings without the sun today anyhow...  i dont think this will be a huge event by any means, but i bet a few bloggers are going to be talking about some hail damage tomorrow... hopefully the nasty ones stay over the rural areas around the outskirts of the city

********************

I think at the very least we see a decent line of storms move thru overnight.  Now the question is do storm fire this evening?

Jeremy

Surely someone can help me out with this weather radio issue?? I have read the manual..it goes off but not for the area's I need. It is all for SW MO and SE KS (Bourbon Co and on down to OK)...I need more middle and just to my SW coverage for me to be able to benefit. This is the reason I waited until this Spring to even buy one. We do not have any luck down here with them.
Monica

*****************

I don't know the exact answer but it may be based off what towers you are receiving the info from.  I hope you aren't too far south to get the KC area warnings.

Jeremy

talk about some huge variance in dew points!  And it looks like they are on the rise.
Dodge City 38
Salina 47
Manhattan 58
Emporia 60
Wichita 60
Topeka 59
KC-downtown 57

Winds for Manhattan are showing SW35 mph with gusts to 46 mph

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A windy, warm day with some sun.  The 14Z RUC looks interesting.

Jeremy

Jeremy, I totally understand that and I appreciate what you do. But I do feel that in our personal excitement we also need to be respectful of those who come here to have their fears assuaged as well as kepp track of any impending weather. I do not like to anyone write of their desire for major chaos without realizing that with that possibility comes the potential of someone getting hurt. I just think there a few here who need to be more respectful and I was agreeing with Kristi's comments. I was certainly not trying to be argumentative. :(

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Not at all.  The comments today have great with the discussion leading up to this possible event later today/tonight.

Jeremy

Well, just some mildly informed amateur speculation here...

I think about 5 pm-6pm SPC will put out a tornado watch, extending say 60 miles either side of a line from St. Joe to Wichita. Not a PDS watch, just a "regular" tornado watch. About 630 or so some supercells will start firing over the Flint Hills and begin to move NEward towards the Topeka/Lawrence/metro corridor. This will eventually congeal into a squall line.

There will be some radar-indicated tornado warnings at various points and one or two funnel clouds will be sighted, maybe a brief tornado touchdown without major damage thankfully. There will be lots of lightning and wind, and some moderate-sized hail, and much of the metro will be under severe t-storm warnings during the late evening and overnight hours, but thankfully there won't be any really horrible problems. Bullet dodged.

But wait about two more weeks...when similar systems start coming through in mid-May with much deeper moisture available...look out.

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The watch later today would be possible...especially if we get something to fire up.  The latest RUC has some 'action' around 6pm.

Jeremy

I doubt if anything, but a shot of some sedation medication will calm my fears tonight.  I will be at my mom's house with about 5 pages going.  One for warnings.  One for updates.  One for radars.  One for blog.  One for a chat room. LOL.  My computer at my apartment will be turned off.  Along with the surge protector.  I'm taking a few supplies with me to my mother's jic (just in case.)  My medications, our own pillows, my son's lovie (his teddy.)  Some extra snacks.  If anything does happen, I pray it doesn't.  I will be in the basement with the kids.  Probably while the rest are upstairs laughing at me, but that's alright, at least I'm safe. :)  I'll probably have this site up all day..  Just pay attention to the skies, and if you're not like me, your gut feeling. :)  Stay safe everyone.  (If it's nighttime weather radio ftw.) FTW Is for the win. heh.

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You can never be too cautious with the weather.  Often times after bad weather strikes an area you hear people saying something like...I wasn't prepared or I didn't know it was coming.  So what you are doing to some may be over the top, but if it helps to calm your nerves then that is what you need to do. 

Here is a site you may want to keep up tonight.

http://www.weather.gov/view/states.php?state=MO&map=on

Click on warnings and advisories.  When warning updates come in(even after one is issued) you will see it here.  Hang in there...you'll be fine!

Jeremy

Hmmm about that latest RUC run... yeah... 4000-4500 j/kg CAPE seems a bit unrealistic to me.

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+cape+am+12

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Didn't say it would happen...but it is bullish.

Jeremy

Gary and Weather Team,

I have to drive from Topeka to Lawrence between 5 and 5:30pm and I am kind of concerned with what the NWS has said that the initial development would be Supercells. What is your thinking on this time frame and would you advise that I leave a little earlier?

Ryan

*****************

Ryan,

You could leave earlier...but the cells initially would be pretty isolated.  I think with it being light out you could see what's ahead or south of you.  Certainly no guarantee anything will form by 6pm.  It is up to you though.

Jeremy

hey Jeremy, you're killin me!!...what does "looks interesting" mean!!:)  :)

Sean is heading out this afternoon, around Chanute or Emporia so far is the target area. If I had some place for my daughter to go after school (we are showing the house and they call at all hours and she has to leave ) today I would have been there. He is always fun.

Mamaof3girls:

Here is some info that might help you out.  Your coverage for Linn and Franklin Counties will  be SAME code 020107 with the frequency of 162.425 from Halls Summit.  I hope this helps you out, but wasn't sure exactly what you were asking other than that info.  Jim in Clinton

Thank you Jeremy.  I tend to use the NOAA large map  and some others to look for watches and warnings, but that is a nice site as well.  I tend to use the NOAA overall one that way I can see what is coming from Kansas, as I will be located in North Kansas City.  Weather tends to move in to there from Kansas pretty quickly.  Yes, some said I have been over reacting.  A friend was joking with me about last time there was a tornado.  (It moved over Clay didn't hit us, but hit Ray county.)  He was like I think there's still an imprint from you and the laptop on my couch in the basement.  I started laughing.  It is true.  If I have a laptop it's coming with me!

Does anyone have a good site to alert you through your phone?  In a timely fashion?  I have cricket (bleh.)

Lillyanya:  Believe it or not, our KSHB team has a cell phone text message service!!!  here is the link.....Jim in Clinton
http://www.nbcactionnews.com/weather/alerts.aspx

lol lillyanya that cracks me up!!! I so wish nbc had a live weather chat. that would be a blast.

Wow i love this blog! lol i can just find any information on here.... thx for the post cindylou.... i think ill have to prepare myself for quite the nite this evening, and u can really see the dewpoints just surging northward over our area. Im goin to batten down the hatches, the idea of bow echos freaks me out with the possibility of that wind, not to mention the hail and tornado threat.

Gary, i really dont kno wat i wood do without this blog! thx for the effort that u guys put in

and kristi i hope it turns out for the best with ur parents!

I have seen quite a bit of sun poking through today.  I suspect CAPES will be responding a bit more than expected.  Capping now only enhances this.

Will have to keep an eye on this...

Jeremy - yes, I use the RUC as well in short term.  Amazing to see how the CAPES have responded in just a short time with this sunlight poking through...

This is going to be a very busy evening.  Not things of legend, but the first tangible and close threat of the season.

Get ready for a long night folks.

*****************

We are ready.  As mother nature has surprises...so will we:)

Jeremy

Gary- I will be watching you & the news team closely today. I trust you all & look to you for the most up to date info. We were in the May2003 tornado & lost everything.To you that enjoy chasing or watching- I am happy you do. But for us who saw the devastastion.....we do not encourage severe weather. It doen't just destroy material things.....it can destroy lives. That is my take on it.
Gary again thank you for coming to our school after the tornado....it really helped us!

All I see on that is for e-mail.  :(  Thanks though Jim.  I was reading the forecast thing in that site that someone linked.  It is interesting.  The storm chasers are discussing this, and it's around 11 pages long or longer.

http://www.stormtrack.org/forum/showthread.php?t=16196&page=2

There it is if anyone wants to take a look at it. :)

I have a question - I noticed also, that even under the moderate risk, there is no PDS.  (which seems to be a good thing:).  What is the critera or parameters for the PDS?  

The other thing I'm wondering about is that with this storm, everyone is talking about the high risk of supercells.  

I had assumed that almost any time we're under a watch (t-storm or tornado) the main threats are either going to come from supercells or strong frontal squall lines.  Those hail storms we had a few weeks ago, weren't they all supercells?  So my question is, what makes the supercell risk tonight more special or worthy of notice?

Otherwise, I'm praying I don't hear any sirens tonight.  I've got a sprained ankle and 2 old dogs that refuse to even get close to the basement stairs.  So for better or worse, we are all stuck above ground tonight.

******************

PDS is generally when strong or long track tornadoes are possible.

Jeremy

Lillyanya:  That is what a text message is.....yourcellnumber@text.att.net for example.  If you sign up using your id and password for the blog, you will see you can enter your cell phone email address to get notified via a text message.  Jim in Clinton.

Hey im in maryville today and will be leaving around 8 or 9 tonight. do you think it will be safe to drive back to chillicothe this late? i'll have my weather scanner in the truck also.

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Don't cancel anything yet.  Let's see how it plays out.  Please keep us updated!

Jeremy

Sadly, my phone doesn't have that feature. :(  Cricket doesn't offer most things like that, and even their weather browser is outdated.

I'm guessing that since the moderate risk is on the Kansas side, that the southeastern side might be just looking at a squall line and not supercell's?

********************

Anywhere in the viewing area needs to keep on top of this set up.  Southeast areas under the slight risk can still see super cells too.  The risk areas are just a forecast.

Jeremy

I don't see the secondary low forming in Oklahoma.. ? Can someone show me where you are seeing this? I am looking at sat. and current conditions and I don't see. Could be I am just missing it.
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20080501&endTime=-1&duration=0
http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&itype=vis&size=large&endDate=20080501&endTime=-1&duration=0

Daivd

mom of three- Are you in KCK area? I lost everything as well Sunday May 4th. Seeing a tornado close up and that sound...it is something you never forget.

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I was less than a mile from a tornado once...but really didn't know it happened until after it passed by.  It moved right by the station in Madison, WI!

Jeremy

Well as of 11am the Dewpoint has rose to 59 and just south and west it has hit 60.  If and or when it goes to 62+ thats when id really start paying attn to the sky.  And TOPEKA is reporting Few clouds and 76* with winds 32G43

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Things are starting to look much more interesting.

Jeremy

I'm the biggest scaredy cat ever....but logically, anyone "wishing" for a certain outcome with the weather won't really influence it!  Just like in winter, 100 bloggers saying "Come on Blizzard! We want a blizzard!" won't actually make it snow...  so the cheering does not bother me either way ...  

dwx tracker, you can see it forming in north west oklahoma. Just east of the panhandle.

Yes Bryan. I live by the woodlands. I actually was not in it...I had to go out of town...but came home to a war zone. My children & husband survived in our basement. I cannot imagine going through a tornado. I had a hard time just seeing what happens after one hits you. Sorry to hear you had to go through that!  

Hey ~ Long time lurker, first time poster. I live in Joplin but have found alot of interesting and helpful info following Gary's blog and comments.  

We don't have a basement, an interior room or closet (crazy-I know) so I'm very alert to potential bad weather. Hope everyone in KC is safe tonight.

Lorie

I'm seeing quite a few reports of 60° dewpoints around the area now from personal weather stations.
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Can you post a shorter link?  Those long one's throw the sizing for a loop:)

Jeremy

One thing that bothers me is The Longest Walk, a group of Native Americans on their way across the U.S.   They are staying tonight at Camp Gaea near McLouth.  I heard it had a tornado shelter but I don't know for sure!  

P.S.  If everything goes all right they are supposed to be at the River Market tomorrow (Fri.) at 10 a.m. to walk the next segment to the Liberty Memorial.  

Some of those Dewpoints are a little off I think, but the avg # is 60.

"I was less than a mile from a tornado once...but really didn't know it happened until after it passed by.  It moved right by the station in Madison, WI!

Jeremy"

LOL...now that's a little sad that the meteorologist didn't know a tornado was passing by????

Would any of you weather experts be shocked to see a high risk posted today??...or is that pretty much out of the question?

Dwxtracker     You can see the wind barbs starting to swirl right around the Oklahoma panhandle. It is still unorganized but it should be more defined by 2pm or so.

Guess I should turn on my weather radio, huh?

It would appear that the moderate risk has been shifted some what to the south, still touches the southwest side of town, but no longer includes northeast Kansas. What has caused them to move the risk south?

David

Hey Guys- the DP for thr plaza showed 66 on the graphic you just had up-- is that right??

JP

weathermom, I highly doubt it.  Usually if its a slight risk on the day outlook they only update it to mod risk.  The big thing out of this severe situation is going to be the hail and straight line winds.  However,  there is a  slight risk of isolated tornados.

Good morning Gary and Jeremy--Right now my local observation here in Topeka is partly cloudy with quite a bit of sun-----RH is 57 and the DP is 60 with a temp of 76---The wind is out of the south gusting over 30 mph and the air is feeling heavy.  Having lived in Kansas all my life it is feeling like a tornado and severe weather day.  Make sure your weather radios are working!  We have five situated all over house--upstairs and downstairs and one even in the garage!  They are all different with a variety of alarms.  Stay safe!  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

Good morning Gary and Jeremy--Right now my local observation here in Topeka is partly cloudy with quite a bit of sun-----RH is 57 and the DP is 60 with a temp of 76---The wind is out of the south gusting over 30 mph and the air is feeling heavy.  Having lived in Kansas all my life it is feeling like a tornado and severe weather day.  Make sure your weather radios are working!  We have five situated all over house--upstairs and downstairs and one even in the garage!  They are all different with a variety of alarms.  Stay safe!  Michael/Berryton/Topeka

you did it again....used that word INTERESTING!!!  :)....I wish I could just shadow one of you meterologists on a day like today....my lack of knowledge is killing me.

looks like they have moved the moderate circle to the south a little bit

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Mammatus, I looks to me like the pressure is rising in those areas, not falling. I realize you probably know more than me, but I am just saying what I see.

yes, it appears the mod risk has been moved slightly further south. As well as the tornado threat. I wouldnt be surprised to see hail 3 inches in diameter.

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I would be surprised since the biggest hail I've ever seen is slightly bigger than golf balls.

Jeremy

hi all! am i the only one that finds it a little ironic that this whole blog today (or any day when weather turns ugly/exciting) is about the threat of severe weather later this evening, and a cube ad on the KSHB home page features the headline, "Severe weather can strike without warning. Are you ready?" seems to me we will be. while i recognize the intent of the message, is it really a true statement? (sorry, just the adman in me....).

someone earlier mentioned ear plugs for tonight... i'm with that one tonight. sirens, IF they go off, will come through loud and clear. i have one about 3 blocks away.

thanks!

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I think the ad is for weather radios.  Or it use to be...I'll look.

Jeremy

mom of three- it was a valuable lesson and I learned a lot from it.

Dwxtracker it does look that there are some rises in pressure but give it a couple of hours and it should be more obvious. I am not a meteorologist by any means but I am fascinated by weather and love to learn. Should be an interesting evening. Even though they moved the Moderate risk a bit south, the storms will be racing northeast so I would bet the 2000Z Conv outlook will change one again around 3pm. We should know alot more by then I would imagine.

They did, But it still includes most of the metro.

was it just me or was the dewpoint at 11:15 on the broadcast.. 59   and then at 11:30 it showed 66.

Looks to be getting VERRRY INTERESTIN lmao.

Stacy

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Dew points are still at 59...was it the humidity you saw?

Jeremy

Looks like it doesnt include KC, MO. Just KCK. Still close enough.

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I've seen areas with no risk that get nasty storms...so don't read into the dividing lines too much.  There isn't much difference in being in or near a moderate risk .

Jeremy

Wow, some of you people are no different than a certain female on another certain station that thinks we need helments on during severe weather.. Please, twister11, you expect 3 inch hail? based on what? I think the over excitment on severe weather needs to be toned down a little. I'm not trying to be mean to anyone but it's getting overly thick in this blog on wanna-be-weather-experts that are now doing their own predictions.. Again, I'm sorry this sounds mean, but this is how mis-information gets out, and when a situation arises that public safety may be in jepardy, putting out "opinion" is just as dangerous...  Just my two cents.

When will watches and warnings be put out? How much rain is expected out of these storms? I am sure there will be isolated amounts that could be larger.  Aslo, I have never blogged during a spring time storm. I was wondering what the severity of these storms are. Reading the blog it sounds like we are in for it lol. But I am sure that is only because of peoples intrest in the weather. Is there any indication of the probablity of tornadoes? Large outbreak or not very likely? A lot of questions with probably no real answers.

Thanks!!!!

COOL! Wind Advisory just issued!!!!

Jeremy,
NO it was the dewpoint.  I was watching it very close.  Cuz like you all said it is the thing to watch.
At the last clip it was down to 65 tho.

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ok...not sure what graphic.  Dew point is now 60 at KCI.

Jeremy

Stacy

great Jeremy thanks.

It is very humid and windy. I was outside working in the yard with my middle brother who is now living with us now.  Tight quarters but who cares when you have family around.

For those of you who are praying and have good thoughts for my family.  My dad definitely has cancer but he will have a biopsy tomorrow and a PET scan Wed to determine what type and how far it has spread.  My family is coming together to help one another out.  I am sooo grateful for that and all the good thoughts and prayers here.  I can't say Thank You enough!

My mom has her appt. next Friday with the pulmonary specialist.

Kristi  

FOR JEREMY,
I am sorry for going off on chfs but his comment made me angry.

Kristi,
I wish you the very best.  My father died of Lung Cancer in 2003.  My heart goes out to you.  

I'll be TRYIN to track storms, IF this cold of mine will allow me to.  I'll be soo glad when these temps stabilize more.. maybe it will finally go away.

Stacy