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Late afternoon update

Good late afternoon bloggers,

The anticipation builds.  The cold front/dryline is stalling west of Kansas City.  A low pressure area is forming on the front in southwest Kansas.  We are waiting for our first development, which could happen at any time.  The atmosphere is becoming increasingly unstable.  We will be tracking these developments on our newscasts, and we will update this blog as soon.  The main wave does not approach until after midnight.  But, the big question is will a thunderstorm break through the cap before sunset?

Gary

Published Thursday, May 01, 2008 4:19 PM by glezak

Comments

 

simplykristi said:

I will be monitoring radars and satellite online and the sky outside.

Kristi
May 1, 2008 4:31 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Ill Take all the blame for everyne that gets mad if there dishes go out. I will take every single blame that people have.

Anyway Supercells will develope and will produce some tornaods. Im not going to change my openion due to somepeoples anger toward myself.
May 1, 2008 4:32 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

Clouds are building. Im thinking we will get some storm development close by here in the next 45 minutes or so.
May 1, 2008 4:37 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

tornado watch in sd and iowa
May 1, 2008 4:40 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Yes I am sure someone somewhere will get a tornado. But I doubt there will be lots of them here as you claim. I am going outside and sit with my daughter and our dog., I am so done with this right now and I am sorry, but I can't ignore it all the time.
May 1, 2008 4:40 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Posted on previous blog after Gary posted a new one:

Wonderful blog. I learn so much from lurking here. Kristi ~ you're one of my favorites besides Gary. Thanks for the link to Spotter Network and Storm Chasers on Discovery. Very un-nerving to see that their TVN is not too far from me.

I'm fascinated and scared to death by bad weather. Back in the 70's a twister jumped over my house. We were in the hallway with a mattress over us.
I can't believe that I bought a house without a basement. What was I thinking?
May 1, 2008 4:42 PM
 

radman22 said:

If this was survivor chfs327, you would be banished by the mob
May 1, 2008 4:43 PM
 

Hushpook said:

If your home happens to be the one hit by a tornado, would you really care if it was a massive outbreak, or a lone wolf? While the severe weather can be exciting, the tragic results aren't much fun.
May 1, 2008 4:45 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I agree with Jeri.  

Thanks, Loris..  I posted a reply to your comment in the last blog.  Chances are you won't be heading to a place of safety from a tornado.  Keep tuned to Gary anbd the weather team and listen to NOAA Weather for any watches and warnings.

Kristi
May 1, 2008 4:47 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

lol kristi, thx for the update on the blog change... i probably wood have stayed on it for a while, and yes it seems that the atmosphere is becoming very interesting, u can almost feel it... lol and chfs327, dont be sooo hard on urself... but i think if any supercells do develop, it may be soon with the dry line.

and wow lorie, i can't even imagine the fright there, and no basement? id be horrified
May 1, 2008 4:47 PM
 

mizzoufan03 said:

Chfs327, again I really appreciate the enthusiasm, though somewhat immature (given your age is understandable).

Yes this board is VERY informative yet somewhat entertaining.

I think some need to relax and quit being so liberal.

Kind regards
May 1, 2008 4:47 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Any tornado that hits is bad.  Tornadoes disrupt lives in a big way, whether it is an EF0 or an EF5.

Kristi
May 1, 2008 4:50 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

spotternetwork.org is starting to make me mad. anyone have any tips on what to do. i cant see the current national activity.
May 1, 2008 4:50 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

is the tornado watch in effect because of the triple point up in SD?

or why?
May 1, 2008 4:51 PM
 

Charles From New York said:

there are warnings now across Southern SD
May 1, 2008 4:52 PM
 

mizzoufan03 said:

Anyone noticing the tops growing out to the west?

All kindergarten bantering aside, everyone please stay tuned in and take all safety precautions.
May 1, 2008 4:54 PM
 

Barbara said:

Baseball uniform?  Check
Baseball equipment?  Check
Weather radio?  Check
Batteries for weather radio?  Check
Knowing what to do if the thing goes off at the game...uh...????
May 1, 2008 4:55 PM
 

simplykristi said:

bell,
Go over to Discovery Channel's Storm Chasers page:  http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/storm-chasers/live-tracker/live-tracker.html

There are a couple of chasers there from the show.

Kristi
May 1, 2008 4:55 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I believe so, weatherdude.  Scott or Notes can confirm if they wish. :)

Kristi
May 1, 2008 4:56 PM
 

Charles From New York said:

the tornado watch is in effect because of the warm front induced tornadoes
May 1, 2008 4:56 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

I am confused. We are in the moderate risk here in KS..yet the Meso discussion and Tornado watches are way up north. This is the part of weather I do not understand.
Monica
May 1, 2008 4:56 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Mizzou, I am feeling very relaxed (Rock Chalk) right now actually. I feel very happy (won Orange Bowl and NCAA in same year) because it is warm out and I love (Beak 'em) warm weather.
Also respectfully, Jeri
May 1, 2008 4:58 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Barb, remember your helmets! ROFL I told my ex not to umpire any softball games today because of the weather issues.
May 1, 2008 5:00 PM
 

Charles From New York said:

mamaof3girls: KC is not under a watch becuase the storms will fire later the storms have began to fire up near the low first they will work down the front and will reach KC area in about 2 hours maybe even more
May 1, 2008 5:00 PM
 

mizzoufan03 said:

Kristi,

thanks for the link, very nice. Wow sun is back out in fullforce in the Northland
May 1, 2008 5:00 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

lol thx for the link! and the answers... lol soo like wats the chance of supercells forming along the dry line?
May 1, 2008 5:00 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

MD 758 is in our alley!!!
May 1, 2008 5:01 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Charles,
I thought that the triple point was up there.  Maybe I was seeing things earlier. :)

Kristi
May 1, 2008 5:02 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Hey Guys, Gals, Weather Enthusiasts, My name is Jonathan, 26 years old out of KCMO, I'm new to this blog, well I used to blog on Gary's old blog approx. a year and a half to 2 years ago. but I read this blog daily and 4 and 5 times daily and I read comments so I know who's who and who thinks their Mike Thompson and what not. Just kidding about that( that was harsh ) anywho. I'm really excited about tonight. My thoughts for tonight - I think Everything is there for an outbreak. Temps are hot, Moisture is there, but not as deep and juicy and it was once thought, but maybe there's still time on that. the last water vaper I just checked is showing the jet blasting over us right now as we speak. so we do have plenty of wind shear. but is that second low developing? and is that moisture sufficient for how hot the temp is? I don't know just like Gary doesn't know yet so i'm going with Gary's uncertainty at the moment. If it happens it could be bad but it could be a one storm deal that dies overnight ya never know.

Gary. I sent you an e mail a while back but never got a response back. you provided a segment at the end of my wedding slide show and I thought that was the best thing in the world. My wedding was the night of the border showdown so you should remember. But thank you so much. Hi guys and I look forward to being part of your chat. Kristi I'm sorry to hear about your parents.
May 1, 2008 5:02 PM
 

mizzoufan03 said:

Jeri,

I so happy for you ( just be careful not to lump yourself with the other arrogant KU fans). Seriously, stay safe.
May 1, 2008 5:03 PM
 

juba said:

Everybody! Barley any cap for me exept 2 hrs of mostly cloudy until noon, them it started to break. We are now in a moderate risk of severe weather ( http://www.spc.noaa.gov ). GAry, can you give me a link to a dewpoint map, I dont care from where, I want ta know the dew points! Byan.
May 1, 2008 5:04 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Isolated thunder developing along dryline from St. Joseph southwards to just West of Lawrence to between Ottawa and Emporia...  Guess it wasn't a "bad" gut instinct after all... :-D
May 1, 2008 5:05 PM
 

LRCfan said:

there is a mesoscale discussion watch likely soon for eastern kansas and western missouri spc.noaa.gov
May 1, 2008 5:05 PM
 

twister11 said:

Kristi, I love the site!! Thank u
May 1, 2008 5:09 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

mesoscale discussion for estrn ks watch maybe likely radar shows Junior super cellular feature developing along dry line. see above to see who I am.
May 1, 2008 5:11 PM
 

twister11 said:

look at stream 3 on the chasers video. Looks like they found theirselves a storm. Unless knowing my luck once you get there, they go find a different location. lol
May 1, 2008 5:13 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Mizzou, just teasing with ya my hubby is the KU guy. I was told to adopt the Jayhawks LOL I am from California.
May 1, 2008 5:14 PM
 

Roberto said:

Gary,
 The new SPC mesoscale discussion has the cold front out in central Kansas and the dryline just east of Topeka, with the coldfront not overtaking the dryline. Looking at surface maps, I can see this to. According to the discussion, they will issue a watch soon because of supercells around the dryline. Has the coldfront not taken over the dryline yet? Because looking at simple temperature maps, the real convergence of temperatures is in central Kansas. The new SPC outlook has the metro in a moderatre risk and a very high risk of hail/winds, but a 5% chance of tornadoes, but they're new discussion seems different than that. I will watch you in like 3 minutes. Thanks!
     Roberto
May 1, 2008 5:14 PM
 

Charles From New York said:

Special weather statement mentioning rapid development in Witchitaw
May 1, 2008 5:15 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Sittiing in Chanute,KS right now. CU field has gone up to the west and northwest, but struggling against the CAP at this time. I'm waiting patiently for initiation.
May 1, 2008 5:15 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

ok all.. need to shut laptop down n let it cool off.. How long before the action starts??
I wanna track but too sick to sit at desk today.

Stacy
May 1, 2008 5:15 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

wow, a couple just popped!
May 1, 2008 5:15 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Welcome to the blog, Jonathan!  I just read the MD over at the SPC website.  

I should know this but I don't remember. :(  is Zulu time the same GMT?  Thanks!

Kristi
May 1, 2008 5:16 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Twister and all,
You are welcome!

Kristi
May 1, 2008 5:16 PM
 

Zazel said:

Juba,

Dewpoints as of 5pm can be found here:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/frames.php?sector=5

Temperature is in red, dewpoint in green.  There's a ton of other information at this link, most of which I haven't a clue what it means.
May 1, 2008 5:18 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

From the stormchaser blog people are noting:
"Heading north out of Iola, KS, to intercept hard tower into cirrus overdeck showing radar return just north of I-35 near Waverly. Should ride parallel to I-35. Game on."
And another:

"We are sitting just North of Sedan, Ks and watching a large tower go up just to our West. There is also an anvil spreading over our heads right now."
May 1, 2008 5:18 PM
 

MikeL said:

In SW Topeka, towers are forming to the EAST of us. Looks like you folks in Kansas City may get some action this evening.  I guess if we get anything here it will be later tonight.
Mike
May 1, 2008 5:18 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Aside from the severe weather threats for this evening, the wind has been incredible today. Part of a shed wall blew off its 2x4s and peeled the metal back! I fixed it... through the strong gusts of wind. Had to stand on a stock tank and a bale of hay on top of that to reach the top of the shed wall. Pretty ingenious huh?!

I was in a F0 tornado in 2005. I am very nervous now with severe weather. Can't eat or sleep - just pace and fret. Straight line winds are just as bad as a twister in my opinion. And it looks like we may get some of those winds with hail. Ugh!! I hope this storm just comes through as a normal thunderstorm. Is there any chance of that?
May 1, 2008 5:19 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

lol yes, welcome the the blog! (well commenting that is) but yes, a few storms have just started to form! here it goes

May 1, 2008 5:19 PM
 

Charles From New York said:

storms in KS are producing hail now
May 1, 2008 5:20 PM
 

mizzoufan03 said:

Looks as if the SHOW is starting earlier then previously expected.
Jeri, what a year to be a KU fan, they even beat us in baseball yesterday at the K.

Kind regards
May 1, 2008 5:21 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Yes storm initiation is underway SE of ICT. Game on BEFORE sunset, by a long shot!

Still sitting in Chanute contemplating the next move....
May 1, 2008 5:22 PM
 

FutureNursLori said:

Zulu here and now is 6 minus military time.  
May 1, 2008 5:22 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

charles, how do u kno this?

May 1, 2008 5:23 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Pea size hail is now falling in McLouth KS at the junction of K-2 & K-16.
May 1, 2008 5:24 PM
 

johnj said:

Just be glad this isn't South Dakota--the Black Hills area is expecting three FEET of snow tonight!  Yikes!
May 1, 2008 5:24 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

oh well mu beat them in football in the biggest game. plus we had to go play in the big 12 money maker otherwise we would be holding a national championship trophy.
Storms are firing and i am excited. still not getting my spotternetwork to work but o well
May 1, 2008 5:24 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

wow looking at radar... theres like about 5 cells that have just exploded across the dry line

May 1, 2008 5:25 PM
 

Charles From New York said:

May 1, 2008 5:26 PM
 

Charles From New York said:

warning in SE KS
May 1, 2008 5:28 PM
 

Bryan said:

Severe thunderstorm just northwest ok kc now
May 1, 2008 5:28 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

the spc needs to issue a tornado watch NOW.....(thanks Kristi) There are 4! super cellular featurs lined up from St Joe to approx 60 miles SE of Emporia and other features are still forming what's holding them up. and Kristi about the Zulu time, I've never understood it and numbers confuse me more than anything in this world thus I persue weather as a hobby LOL.
May 1, 2008 5:28 PM
 

Roberto said:

Severe thunderstorm warning for Leavenworth & a tornado watch!!!
May 1, 2008 5:30 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

Weird - I didn't get that severe thunderstorm alert on my phone yet.
May 1, 2008 5:32 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

well, its begun...the menacing clouds are exploding over fort leavenworth...severe thunderstorm on the way...
May 1, 2008 5:32 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I walk away from the pc and BOOM!  I will virtual chase as much as I can this evening.  I have guests coming over later.

Kristi
May 1, 2008 5:33 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Tornado threat just go up?
May 1, 2008 5:33 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

i didnt see any tornado watch
May 1, 2008 5:34 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I'm still not seeing a tornado watch yet Roberto. where are you getting your source?
I know about the one in SD.
May 1, 2008 5:35 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Severe t-storm warning for Douglas County.

Kristi
May 1, 2008 5:35 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Weather radio just went off. We're in a tornado watch. Oh fun! No sleep for me tonight.
May 1, 2008 5:37 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Tornado Watch #244 just issued for cntral an ne Kansas.  We just had pea sized hail in McLouth, KS at the junction of K-92 & K-16.  Movement ne at 40mph.
May 1, 2008 5:37 PM
 

Lizbaugh said:

The tornado watch goes into effect at 540
May 1, 2008 5:37 PM
 

Charles From New York said:

tornado watch issued
May 1, 2008 5:37 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

yeah the tornado threat just EXPONENTIALLY went up! Nobody's been wanting to blow the tornado outbreak whistle ALL day but right now I'm blowing that whistle. we are on the verge of something serious. unless these are strictly driven by diurnal heating then it may not be as bad when it gets to the KC area but it's already so close. I'm in Jackson county around I 435 and Holmes and I know some of you are already in the vicinity of these storms but the storms are still too small to produce tornadoes it looks like. but that will change very soon
May 1, 2008 5:38 PM
 

Kelly said:

Weather radio just went off, Tornado watch until 0100 for the Metro. This will be an interesting night.

Kelly
May 1, 2008 5:38 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I also have a tornado watch in Lenexa
May 1, 2008 5:39 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

All these storms forming right now not only are producing hail but also show very strong indications they are rotating.
May 1, 2008 5:40 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

lol whoa... got some pre cognitive people here... haha

lol but wow! this is going to be interesting
May 1, 2008 5:41 PM
 

Roberto said:

HaliJonathan: It took a while for the NWS to update their graphics. Its on their now, but not on the SPC's website. I read the severe thunderstorm warning and it had the watch info in their , but it is know on their website.
   Roberto
May 1, 2008 5:41 PM
 

JPnKC said:

just go outside- these storms have popped in the last 20 min!!
May 1, 2008 5:44 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Roberto yeah it showed up right after I posted that...that storm in Leavenworth is showing a strong hook even though it's small. its happening people though the progression to the east should be slow it looks like. unless the storms take those classic right turns or unless we get more super cells ahead of the cold front/dry line but I don't think that will happen immediately because the dewpoint is only 60-62 which is still marginal ya know?
May 1, 2008 5:48 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Storms are really popping.  

Kristi
May 1, 2008 5:49 PM
 

Matt P said:

Just came north on I-35 in the Northland.  We can see a lot of build-up in the sky.  It's beginning to look ugly out there.
May 1, 2008 5:49 PM
 

twister11 said:

this is getting serious.
May 1, 2008 5:50 PM
 

Kelly said:

Any chance of a PDS??

Kelly
May 1, 2008 5:52 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

I'm watching the one near Lawrence - this one will track into Kansas City. Also, there is another strong one near Ottawa heading for the southern part of the metro.
May 1, 2008 5:53 PM
 

davidmcg said:

The local emergency preparedness office in Jefferson County KS have just stated the dry line appears to be just east of McLouth right on the Jefferson and Leavenworth line.  I can look straight up and see one giant anvil cloud to my northeast and one to my south.  Too bad I can't post pictures.  Also, that cell in Douglas County se of Clinton Lake is pumping out 1.75" hail
May 1, 2008 5:54 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

One other issue with these storms - they look like they may train over the same areas.
May 1, 2008 5:54 PM
 

Roberto said:

HaliJonathon uh huh there's kinda a hook on that Leavenworth cell, a lot more to the southwest for us here in KC. The SPC mesoanalysis page has us in an with a heightened chance of supercells and tornadoes... these cells are fairily independent in nature.
May 1, 2008 5:55 PM
 

nastyweather said:

I hope we get to see things from Skytracker in the air.
May 1, 2008 5:55 PM
 

marlina10 said:

Can someone please tell me why my weather radio is not working? It's set to the SAME code for Johnson County, but I can't pick up any channels, only static. It didn't even go off for the tornado warning. What a night for it to quit working. Help! Can anyone offer suggestions on what to try to get my radio working again?
May 1, 2008 5:59 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Sorry I am being distracted on my end.  A simple dinner for five has become a dinner for eleven. ROTFL  I will be back when I can.  

Kristi
May 1, 2008 6:09 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

well, nothing but some thunder and a couple rain drops...these storms are nothing right now...nothing.
May 1, 2008 6:10 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

thats not a bad thing...i would just like some rain...
May 1, 2008 6:10 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

dont' feel alone pvt.  KCK hasnt seen anything yet.. at least not in the part of KCK I'm in.
May 1, 2008 6:12 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

marlina, i dont know about your weather radio, but as long as you have power, you will know here before even the radio if things are bad...so stay tuned!

also, there have been no tornado warnings, yet.  even the severe thunderstorm warning turned out to be a dud...nothing happened but a couple rain drops and some thunder, so no worries, yet!
May 1, 2008 6:12 PM
 

marlina10 said:

I know there are no tornado warnings, that was a typo. But my radio is not picking up any weather broadcast at all, so obviously it is not working. This blog won't do me any good when I go to sleep tonight.
May 1, 2008 6:17 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

man i can really see the clouds building over my area... these storms are sooo vast!

i havent seen something like this in a long time... im really starting to get worried.

it also looks as if the storms are moving like a train in the south metro area, just like pvt_murphy said.

looks like i need to batten down the hatches.
May 1, 2008 6:18 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Everything is still to my west.  

Kristi
May 1, 2008 6:20 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Marlina,
What type of weather radio do you have?  I know my weather radio is going off downstairs.  I haven't plugged in the SAME codes yet so I get warnings for the entire area..

Kristi
May 1, 2008 6:25 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

aaaaah hubby just reported sprinkles in KCK.. maybe they won't take the Tongie split..   NO I do NOT want the super severe stuff.. jus some rumbles
May 1, 2008 6:31 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

whats with the weird severe thunderstorm warning moving northward through western johnson county?

theres no storm showing up on radar...
May 1, 2008 6:40 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Got thunder in Lenexa.
May 1, 2008 6:43 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Ooops, old blog,
May 1, 2008 6:52 PM
 

weather » Blog Archive » Late afternoon update said:

May 1, 2008 7:09 PM
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