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Morning Gary:

When are you going to update the weather forecast on the weather link? It has not been updated since last thursday. I always depend on your reliable forecast for daily task.

Thanks

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We are in the process over completely changing our weather page.  It will be much bettern and a site for everyone to visit more often.  The first change should show up this week. In this transition a couple of problems showed up, and we will have the forecast updated sometime today.

Gary

Do you believe Gary that with these storms will give us flooding. Of course 2-3 inches of rain around the KC metro is alot in such a short time.

59/125 is a 47.2%. So about half the days this year we have had snow or rain and then the rest is sunny.

2.7 earthquake 6:34 AM this morning in Fenton, Missouri

Gary - thank you for posting the link to your spring forecast.  I just read it.

Based on what you posted above as an excerpt for a "forecast", it reads slightly more vague than a CPC outlook.  I think we both share the same opinion of the value of CPC outlooks.

The only thing I see in this that is not seasonal, normal, or otherwise beyond general climate knowledge is the idea of a wet and cooler Spring/Summer.  

Thats it?  Your forecast is a wetter and cooler Spring?  Statistically speaking, even randomness will allow for good odds on that proposition.

Anyway..enough of that, I was just a bit underwhelmed.  

Looks for Wed that the warm front will be lifting/jumping during the morning and getting us in the warm sector by about 18z.  It seems the upper air is a bit diffluent, so that should help with some of the lift.

It looks like storms should form easily in the warm sector and we should get soaked.  I don't see great potential for any convection as this looks to be more of a wide spread rain/flood potential event.  0Z shows a cloud deck which will prohibit surface heating.  I suspect there will be adequate elevated instability, and with the forcing, diffluence aloft, and warm front - will squeeze out much of the large PW values I am seeing.

;-)

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Scott,

What did you want?  Something like, there will be a storm on X day, and Y day, and then again on XX day, and YY day, and this is exactly what will happen 52 days from now?  LOL  For that severe weather guide it had to be a seasonal type outlook. It is still accurate, don't you think?  We will keep working on getting the forecasts more specific again soon.  But, for my summer forecast, which we will put out next week, it will also be general.

Gary

Is anyone else holding out on purchasing their pool memberships this year?  I am not looking forward to being wrapped in towel again this year.

Gary,
        I am a Superintendent at a local golf course and I follow you guys everyday all day long, your long range forcasts have been right on as far as I'm concerned.
I don't waste my time listening to anyone else!     Just for what it's worth....

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Thanks,

And it is worth a lot.  We are glad that you have been able to utilize our short and long range forecasts. 

Gary

chfs,
I bet that we have not had 66 days of sun this year.  There have been a lot of cloudy days.

Kristi

there was no rain in the forcast for today's weather but some storms seemed to have formed out west and are heading this way. Will they make it?

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I don't think they will make it here, but unfortunately we are getting the clouds.  It is that time of the year.

Gary

Gary,
  I was just wondering if you are going to start showing more of the top 10 Junior Meteorologists tonight at 5.  My daughter was in the top 25 and is dying to know if she made the top 10.

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Yes, we were going to show one on Friday, but the tornado preempted it.  We resume showing them today at 5 PM.  Good luck.

Gary

Pool membership?  Yeah right!  We'll probably get one week of dry, swimming weather maybe in August if we're lucky, then back to this "exciting" cool and wet pattern.  Enjoy your summer :(  Or fly south!

Just wondering...the Star calls for a sunny day today?  Where has the sun gone?  All cloudy here in Olathe...

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There is a thunderstorm complex over central Kansas.  Once it dies out the clouds will break up.  We are under the anvils of the thunderstorms.  I didn't anticipate this today.

Gary

Gary, Did you ever get anymore information on the wind speeds that were produced by the bow echo last week?

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The wind speeds across the entire metro area ranged from 60 to 85 mph as the bow echo moved through, with the two tornadoes of EF2 and EF3 strength hitting the northern areas of Gladstone and Brookridge (just northwest of Liberty).

Gary

Giggle...

Gary,
Seasonal type forecasts are fine for most I guess.  The CPC puts them out, and I recall often hearing your disdain for that analysis in this blog.  

Yes, you know me..I want more specifics. I would like something that can be measured, specific and timely.

So…looking through the insert, I see reference of the LRC and then a generic outlook.  If I didn’t know about the LRC or didn’t frequent the blog, I might think that the LRC was only good enough for general seasonal outlooks.  Is that the message you want to send?  

It certainly isn’t the tone you set here in the blog…  ;-)

The insert asserts that the LRC was able to identify specific events at specific times, such as the killing freeze in April last year and the “Arctic Air Watch” this year.  Both of these identified in a specific timeframe with a specific impact.  You go on to state the following – “This long-range forecast issued on Jan. 2 was verified, and this gives us high confidence as we look ahead into spring.”

Ok- So with this, I am looking for something specific…instead, I get…well a generic, non-descript, and ambiguous forecast.  For example:

“ believe we are going to have a wetter-thanaverage spring with a continuation of near to below average temperatures”

Normal is defined in this context as the norm.  It is a finite line drawn in the sand for what has transpired during the record period.  To state that something is going to be one side or the other of that point is a 50/50 proposition.  Because the norm is “average”, I think folks assume that normal is normal and want to know “how much” different than normal in a forecast.  You don’t define any of that or say why.

“A wet pattern can bring severe weather, but it doesn’t guarantee it.”  - while true, doesn’t provide much value in your analysis.

“Temperatures also need to be warm to create instability. However, I believe there will be a few set-ups for severe thunderstorms as usual this spring” – again, all true..but this statement tells me that there will be a few chances for severe weather – um..its Spring in KC…this is assumed.

Is the above forecast accurate?  Might be, but how on earth will you verify it?  It is soo broad I can make an argument now that it is both valid and invalid.  

Knowing that you believe the LRC dies in the summer, I don’t expect much for the summer forecast.  Let me guess…it will be hot, periods of dry weather, and isolated evening storms?

I will stick with the 45 day forecasts were I can get week by week.  [Wait where is the next one of these?  Oh..I know, it is be pre-empted by the summer seasonal forecast.]

LMAO

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Scott,

As you laugh very hard, let's think about two things.  First of all, we found clearly that the LRC did not end last summer and actually lasted into September before the true transition occurred. So, this is why we are going to attempt to forecast the last breaths of this years LRC next week.

And, the seasonal forecasts that I blast are only blasted because they are so wrong.  It is amazing how often they are wrong, and then still respected and used.  I am just pointing out that at the very least by using the LRC it is being shown to out forecast any of the other long-range forecastsing techniques.

Gary

Scott, dang you are demanding! :) Leave Gary alone... ;)

Gary,

I love the blog and your weather coverage. I have lived here all my life (I am 37) and is it just me or have Tornado Watch/Warning criteria changed? It used to be that sirens were not sounded until a Tornado was spotted on the ground. Now it seems like Tornado warnings are what watches used to be? I am not complaining, just curious.

One other thing that would be helpful when you do suspect Tornados is to give Street addresses. I go to weather.com and can zoom down to my street. I live in Overland Park, but on the edge by Stilwell. When you guys talk about an event in Stanley/Stilwell it would be nice to have street names if possible.

You all do a great job and I appreciate it!

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Thanks!  The criteria hasn't changed.  It just depends on each storm system. And, technology has improved to the point where we can see the circulation inside the thunderstorms much better.  But, a tornado warning will still only be issued, triggering the sirens to go off, when the National Weather Service believes there is going to be  a tornado.  The other night was very close to producing tornadoes right over the city.  And, then we ended up getting hit by 4 tornadoes in the local area. 

Gary

Seasonal forecasts are subjective anyway you slice it.  Nearly impossible to validate either way, but your point is taken.

Let me go for a reach here...as the LRC was seen to extend into September last year, can you take the next step as it relates to the LRC also starting sooner as well?

Is it plausible to you that the atmosphere does not care about months and may overlap for a period on when one cycle ends morphing into a new cycle?

Otherwise, we are stuck with the premise that there is a gap between one old cycle and a new cycle with a month or so without a cycle defined.

This would be the last piece of cogency in the mechanics of the LRC-  I think.  

Then, we would have a cycle that morphs as the jet is the weakest with a slight overlap of two cycles as one dies, and begins forming the next.  It would make sense with the dynamic and fluid motion of the atmosphere that there would not be an abrupt stop and start in what would be otherwise different patterns.

Just me...

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Scott,

I am open to any and all ideas.  But, you went through it with us last year, and the year before.  We noticed that it didn't start earlier, and then suddenly you decided it started in August, where I know we had discussions in September where the pattern was continuing on last year's LRC.

Gary

I have a weather radio question.  Are the ones shown on NBC Action News that are at Price Chopper the kind that will alarm at night if we have any severe weather warnings?  We had purchased a weather radio last year that has a handle to wind up the battery but it only stays on for five minutes at a time.  It is ok for during the day/evening when you are awake but after the storms last week I really want one that will alarm at night.  Thanks!

~Lisa

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Lisa,

Yes, the ones at Price Chopper are excellent!

Gary

weather team:

fyi - The Daily Forecast image and Seven Day Forecast image on the kshb.com/weather page are getting pretty stinkin old. You guys usually do an awesome job of keeping these updated. I use them as my desktop background on my 2 computers at work. They seem to be good free advertisements for you, except when they are outdated.

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This problem should be fixed very shortly.

Gary

Tinkermom:

Yes, the ones at Price Chopper are programmable to sound an alarm when a warning (or watch) is called for your choice of counties.  Typically, I like to program my home county and the ajoining counties to my west, northwest, and southwest.  That way I have plenty of time to wake up and "watch" the storms!  Otherwise, you can program to only your county and you will be awaken by the alarm whenever your county is under a warning.  The list of "SAME" codes are available on the NWS homepage that you will enter to program the counties ( I will link).  I encourage you to purchase one.  I hope this helps...Jim in Clinton   http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/indexnw.htm#sametable

I  have a question going along with this post.
How is it possible for this storm to form?  Looking at the current fronts, this cluster of rain showers is directly under a high pressure.  How can this happen.  I thought a high pressure pushes the air down.  

angvic00 said:
Just wondering...the Star calls for a sunny day today?  Where has the sun gone?  All cloudy here in Olathe...

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There is a thunderstorm complex over central Kansas.  Once it dies out the clouds will break up.  We are under the anvils of the thunderstorms.  I didn't anticipate this today.

Gary

May 5, 2008 11:25 AM  

Finally up to 72 here in KCK. Keep the warm air coming. Also noticed my dewpoint is up to 48 now as well.

The clouds that are "breaking up" are landing all over my vehicles in the form of rain.

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This is how we know we are in a wet pattern.

Gary

For grins, by establishing that the old pattern can continue longer in the summer and early fall months, it was last year at that time I stumbled upon an idea...[actually used for forecasts for last September]

http://kcwx.blogspot.com/2007/11/concept-360-and-new-cycle-definition.html

I understood then that the old pattern had continued while the new pattern was beginning and thought about this way of forecasting based on that transition.

Gary - based on how you measure the LRC and my understanding of it, I agreed in the previous two years that the new pattern was not visible until your defined time period.  I decided to look at it different as -  intuitively, it does not make sense to me that the atmosphere and patterns would be so abrupt.  

I did a bit of it the previous year, but really focused this year on a different way to view the pattern at the surface, and it was only then did I break the mold of thinking in determining that I believe it starts earlier.

Clearly its all a work in progress, but as we both tout "evidence" of this theory, and this is the idea/concept I have on it based on my own findings.

We will both continue to research....

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Yes,

But Scott, I can show you how September was related to last year's pattern, and absolutely no way is it related to this years.

Gary

It looks like it is going to be active again this week.  Flooding could be a problem if we get the heavy rains.  I really wont be able to blog much this week b/c finals are this week, and I get out on thursday, then summer school in june :( oh well at least it is only one class :D  Everyone have a good week.
I am keeping everyone affected by the storms in my thoughts and prayers, I hope everyone will be ok.

Gary:

Is the 7-day forecast on the website going to be fixed anytime soon?

Just wondering =]



Alex from Marceline

There's certainly something to a cycle for this year as we've not gone for barely 3 or 4 days in a row without precp since Dec. 1st.  
Actually the predicted snowfall of 19" was less in most areas.  The average area snowfall was 14.5" for the area, not KCI.
Gary commented on a blog here a few nights ago that this year is not similar to 1993 where we had a flood.  I totally disagree.  It's extremely similar.  His own words for this year were a "cooler and wet spring".  
It doesn't mean there will be wide spread MO river flooding, but I wouldn't rule that out.  In his own words, "don't water,,,,,the ground is saturated,,,etc."
I use the analog method which is similar to the LRC as far as cycles, but if you have enough information, you can find a similar year based on our last 90 days and have a good idea what the next 60 days should be.  Doing this, it hasen't failed me anymore than any other theory and has worked perfectly, almost to the hour since March 15th.

Gary,

Thanks for the update about the central Kansas storms and us being under the anvils of those storms.  It's looking much better out there now.  I'm going to the K for my first time and will get to see my daughter and her fellow classmates sing the National Anthem!  Hopefully no rain will be in sight;0)

Thanks again!

I think I will throw my hat into the ring and become a "peddler of the weather" like some of those high paid good 'ole boys.  Lets see, I'm going to go outside and step into my backyard.  Gues what?  It goes "SQUISH", so you don't have to water your yards ya'll.  Now I'll look up into the sky.  It is sunny, but you know what, tomory it might not be, ya enjoy tday!!!  Now ya usually needs warm weather to raise the severe possibilities but sometimes, those big bad storms don't need much warmth, so watch out and keep ya NWS weather radio handy just in case.  And by the way, it might be cool and wet this spring into summer BUT IT MIGHT NOT!  It is Missouri ya'll and if you don't like the weather then MOVE!!!
  Scott...this ones for you!!!   :)  :)   :)

;-) - too funny.  Thank goodness I don't get paid high falutin money for the forecast cindy provided that matches many long range seasonal forecasts.

LOL

Good evening!! I just wanted to say what a great job you ALL did with last weeks storms! I needed that kind of coverage since my weather radio did not go off one time....even with a tornado warning for Linn Co..UGHH!! We must be to far away from any kind of weather tower. That is why I rely on you all and my computer for your blog and updates. Our siren in town never went off either. Looks like we are in for a soaker this week...hopefully a break from severe weather for awile though. That picture Sara sent in was awesome..I really like it! Have a good evening.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

Thanks.  Of course you should know I am thinking of Pleasanton when thunderstorms are moving through Linn County, KS.

Gary

Stormdog - It would appear easy for those with no meteorological school training to make this claim and that claim - rather like a hobbyist in surgery criticizing those who make the life and death decisions.   It is a game to those on the outside, but when it is yourlivelihood, such criticism, to the Dog seem egocentric and a non-sequiteur, ...sorry all for such a negative feeling, but I have worked, and work, with people that have great egos, so long as they aren't responsible for what they put out.  They don't take responsibility for their decisions, but blame the underlings.

Geez all, without naming names, ease up - Gary may have superb qualities of patience, but the Dog is getting his hackles up about some of this repetative criticism, without the appropriate and corresponding accolades.  This may never get posted, but frankly, I work with a boss with a big ego, and a power-trip, and I am sick to the point of vomiting in the corner (like a dog) over human's ego-trips.
Later, perhaps, The Dog

I agree, your coverage of the storms last week was very good.   You did not hype the storms 3 days ahead of time, just let people know the possibility was good in the area.    The day of the storms you were right on it and the whole team worked really well getting the info out.    Jeremy and Brett really did a great job early in the morning as the damage reports started to roll in.    They were forced to be temp news reporters until the crew arrived.    

Severe weather is so different to forecast days in advance as opposed to snowstorms.    

Great Job to all
Joe

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Joe,

Thanks for the kind comments. I was able to review the coverage of us and our competitors. I really feel we did the best job, and Brett, Jeremy, and don't forget Jeff Penner, did fantastic.  It made my job so much easier, as difficult as it is.  It is reality TV at it's toughest.

Gary

Stormdog, I didn't know we had the same boss LOL Although I agree, sometimes the persistant picking does start to seem a bit much, despite the intent meant.

Hey Gary, just too add to all of the others, you guys did an excellent job on the severe weather Thursday/Friday. You didnt scare anybody out of their pants and you covered the situation accuratley. Job well Done.
Now to this weeks wet weather. How is it looking for the game tommorrow night at Kauffman Stadium? First time going out there this year tommorrow, hope the rain holds off.

PatsSoxCelts. I too am going to the Royals game tomorrow. I have a Backup Plan since im tailgating early that day. Hopefully it holds off so that We will be able to get the game in. Otherwise I will use raincheck and get a better game May 28th.

Dog, I didn't see anything overly critical above...what comment is spawning your angst?

Gary..you statement above - "But Scott, I can show you how September was related to last year's pattern, and absolutely no way is it related to this years."

Perhaps I didn't communicate it well, but I am in full agreement.  Because the pattern stretched out, I am exploring a way to use that to forecast during the transition to the next pattern.

Looks like it will be a game time forecast.   It looks like it might let up in time for the game and get going really good later in the night.   Have a backup plan ready for sure!!!!!

Man...tough crowd, guess I'll take my predictin' skills back to Flush, Kansas.  Sure is a Flush, just check.  By that big 'ole city of Manhattan, where the smartest, purdyest, hansomest, and pridest people live and go to university.  Go Cats!

Cindy I think you go that mixed up with Oklahoma

Stormdog, where do you work? Just kidding!  I completely agree with you.  The weather will never be a finite science.  I think the whole weather team is doing an incredible job in predicting by utilizing the LRC!  btw, Brett, you're visiting my son's school tomorrow.  I told him to ask for some summer forecast hints....pool days or movie days?  Here's hopin' for the pool....

Hi Gary and bloggers- I am in W Kansas-
Garden City just had up to 4.25" diameter  hail reported in there city-

I am 40 miles to the East in Dodge-hoping that cell weakens before it gets here.

Take Care all

JP

Stay safe, JP!

Kristi

Gary I hope this question hasn't been asked already.  If it has just tell this dodo to go back and look for the answer.  That picture up at KCI, was it taken from the tower or an airborne aircraft?

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It was taken from the tower!  Isn't it a great picture.

Gary

I have that weather radio. It is excellent! It went off a few minutes before that squall line came threw. I have it programmed for Jackson County only. I recommend one.

My parents live in Independence and had some damage, they think it might have been a funnel cloud that did not touch down. For their BBG grill was spun not moved like in a straight line wind. But I do not know.


Kelly

so, how about an update from the weatherteam about what they are expecting the next 12-24 hours?

Mamaof3girls,

What stations are you set to? Your best bet would be this station:
COUNTY/CITY/AREA   SAME #   NWR TRANSMITTER   FREQ.
Linn                             020107            Halls Summit   162.425
I think this is channel 2.
If you still don't get any warnings, set the same code to 999999 so that you get any warnings in the area ans see if it starts working for Linn county. I know the radios here in Kansas City go off for warnings in Linn county. Here we listen to channel 7, or 162.550.

Hope this helps.
David

"JPnKC said:
Hi Gary and bloggers- I am in W Kansas-
Garden City just had up to 4.25" diameter  hail reported in there city-

I am 40 miles to the East in Dodge-hoping that cell weakens before it gets here. "

Are you in Mullinville or Greensburg?  Perhaps Kinsley?  I am from Greensbug.  I remember a hail storm near Liberal (Colorado/Oklahoma/Kansas border) where they had a huge hailstorm that destroyed vehicles like a tornado.  Just smashed to hell.  I never knew the size of the hail but 4 inch hail sounds vicious.

It's very dry to your west!  The fact is that for the western high plains, the last 9 LRC's have not been kind to us.  I don't know what its going to take.  As far as a cut off low forming in the right spot to get us some rain (which would be tracking across the southern border of Colorado for us), this has not happened in the spring for many years.  We used to get one or two of those each season and they would bring 2-3 days of rain each time over a wide area, but for whatever reason this just doesn't occur any more.  

What seems to be happening this year is fronts with a lot of wind keep moving through scouring out the moisture each time (probably sending it out to you; you're welcome).  There does not appear to be an opportunity for moisture to flow southward into eastern Colorado, and even if it did we do not get the lows in the right place long enough to pull it up against the mountains and rain on us.

Such is life.  Believe it or not Fort Collins has not yet cracked 2 inches of moisture for the YEAR and we are into the fifth month.  If something doesn't change soon we will be lucky to see 7 or 8 inches for the entire year.

Dwxtracker....thanks for the info...that was the setting I had it on. I even programmed for the counties around me with their SAME # and none of them went off and all had tornado warning's for them that night. I ended up taking the weather radio back today. This is the part that sucks about living so rural. Thanks for the info though...sure do appreciate it. I guess I will just have to trust myself to protect my family if I am not able to log onto a computer or watch TV.
Monica

Mamaof3girls,
No problem. Linn county if one of like one or two counties in Kansas that has really poor coverage. I do hope you get one that works, as we all know how important they are!!

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/eax/safety/nwr/nwrloc.jpg
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/nwr/states/kansas.html

Gary,
will be interesting to see if any more storms can for over central Kansas tonight. If they do form, do you think they would head our way instead of turning south?

David

no updates to the blog gary ? :( been checking all afternoon and evening...

Anyone catch the 10PM forecast?   Missed the news again tonight.  I have been waiting patiently for an update on the website and blog so I can finalize plans for tomorrow.  

Scott what's your problem bro? I'm not trying to pick a fight with anybody but you're the guy that reads another blog and expects him to anylize everything to the last molecule in the air aren't you? Gary and his team forecast differently than other teams and if you've watched over the last several years. ESPECIALLY the last 3 youll understand why they do it the way they do. Gary knows what he's doing and yeah we'd all like to know if there's 100% chance or 0% of Thunderstorms on the 4th of July but no meteorolgist is that good or that precise even if they try to be. I mean we all like weather here and I'd like to think that we read KSHB's Weather blog because we support them I know I do. So lets just be real now. Peace Love and weather. Hail Jonathan

Well it looks like tomorrow afternoon could be a bit on the stormy side, if you believe the NAM then Tuesday aft/eve. would be the main time frame for rain here in St. Joe, then it would push the front to the south and keep us dry all day on Wed., If you believe the GFS it is slower with the front and erupts it will heavy storms for us Wed. morning before shifting the action to the south, either way looks to be a rough mid-week for areas to the south of our region.  Well as always time will tell.

Gary:

Good cloudy morning to you sir!! Currently sitting at 57 degrees with a dew point of 51. Very nice out this morning-man, the birds are really beginning to wake up early LOL!!!

Going to be interesting following the warm front today. I think currently it is sitting around the Kansas/Oklahoma Border as there are some 62 degree dew points nudging into Kansas this morning. Also I think you can see that as that is where the rain is currently located. Will be interesting to watch this move North today and watch the radar respond to its movement. I think there is also a weak surface low sitting in New Mexico that as it moves east should help push that warm front North and also the movement of the upper level low comming off the California coast.

In the end, this looks to be a good rain maker especially if the 6Z GFS is on target. However, I think (as always with all my comments, think is the optimum word LOL) if the arm ront does not make it, we are looking at some sprinkles and clouds. The models kind of have been going back a forth a bit with this upper level low in track and strength so today will be interesting to watch!!!!

Have a great day and as always, thanks for reading!!!!

Bill in Lawrence

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Bill,

The upper low isn't strong, and the warm front is a big factor.  We will see how it all sets up tonight.

Gary

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