Good morning bloggers, The 7-Day is now updating again on the website, for the time being anyway and the forecast may be changing for today. Make sure to tune into NBC Action News Midday at 11:00am for the latest information.
We have made it to the time of the year where moisture is going to be available for every disturbance. Up until now, we needed strong forcing aloft to provide the energy to produce precipitation: thunderstorms, rain, snow, etc. A day like today, just a few weeks ago, would have likely produced just some high and middle clouds and no precipitation as a weak upper level storm approaches, with the main upper level low still way down to our southwest. So, it is a very tricky forecast. There are some signs of an increasing area of showers to our southwest and we will monitor this closely.
There is an upper level low developing near the Arizona/Mexico border. Below, you can see the forecast track of this storm:
If this were a possible snowstorm heading our way, weather forecasters would be driving themselves nuts. When you have to predict the exact amount of snow, then you are setting yourself up for failure. You may get it right in one location, but not for many others. It is different when it comes to forecasting rain. I know you are still expecting us to get it right, but to predict the exact amount is just as hard as forecasting snow. Right now, I am forecasting at least 1 inch of rain for most of us, with 2 to 3 inches possible. This would be like predicting 10 inches of snow with 20 or 30 inches possible. You would never let us get away with a forecast like this. Or, more realistically, if we told you that 2 to 3 inches of snow would fall, with 10 to 15 inches possible, what would you think? Let's say only 0.65" of rain falls, or 2.75" falls by Thursday morning. Would you consider the forecast correct?
Here is the rainfall forecast from the overnight GFS model:
The track of the upper low is very important. Also, how strong will it be when it moves into Missouri? If it maintains some strength and tracks just a bit farther north, then we will be in the very heavy rain. But, a slightly farther south track and we won't get much rain on Wednesday. This is what we will try to figure out on our newscasts today and tonight on NBC Action News.
We will update the blog later today, so check back in. Have a fantastic day.
Gary