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Late Tuesday trends

Good evening everyone,

Definition of an MCS:  A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more. MCSs may be round or linear in shape, and include systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, and MCCs (among others). MCS often is used to describe a cluster of thunderstorms.

Well, it ended up being a very nice day with pretty and thick cumulus clouds.  The weather pattern is transitioning into one that will produce some MCS activity.  MCS stands for Mesoscale Convective System.  There is a chance of one tonight, and another one on Thursday night.  Possibly one more around Saturday morning.  So, three chances for an MCS, and one storm coming up from the southwest. 

The track of the storm, as I showed on the first blog entry from early this morning, is possibly shifting slightly farther north.  The track of this storm will decide whether we have rain most of the day Wednesday and just a mostly cloudy day.  Someone is about to have too much rain, I just haven't pinned down who that is going to be yet.  It appears southern Missouri is still the most likely spot for excessive rainfall, but let's see how it looks later this evening and overnight.

Now, back to the MCS possibility.  There is still a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms to our northwest.  We will be tracking these developments on our newscasts tonight at 5, 6, and 10 PM.  Severe thunderstorms are possible near Kansas City later tonight, but the energy is not nearly as strong as it was last Thursday night.

Have a great evening.  We will update the blog later if thunderstorms begin heading our way.

Gary 

Published Tuesday, May 06, 2008 3:39 PM by glezak

Comments

 

GaryB said:

It's pretty much a "poof" thing as the storms head towards the Ozarks.  Depending what days one goes by with the LRC...nothing happened 40-48 days ago and that was actually our longest "dry spell".  54 days ago, nothing.  44-53 days ago we did have a weak cold front that brought light rain.
May 6, 2008 3:59 PM
 

Scott said:

Garyb, just for grins since you brought it up...here is the blog entry for 54 days ago.  

Look at the surface map shown in the blog for the next day

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/03/13/2755429.aspx

Look at tomorrow's surface map...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/bawx_nav.php?imgtyp=wbg&arrval=3&vtime=Wed_18Z&ptime=Wed_12Z&ntime=Thu_00Z

Good grief.  

LOL.
May 6, 2008 4:15 PM
 

PoofDragon said:

Scott:

Help this poor sub-amateur dragon out. The two look totally different. Is that your point?
May 6, 2008 4:49 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

there are some nice looking supercells developing in west central ks/sw nebraska.  they look to be heading east at a good clip....maybe a stormy late night tonight...
May 6, 2008 4:55 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

thats the last thing we need, another stormy night. Looks good for baseball tonight out at the K?
May 6, 2008 5:00 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Tonight is looking good. Im going out there in about 5-10 minutes.  after Garys Forecast.
May 6, 2008 5:11 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I know people have been wanting to know what the results of the biopsy.  We just found out in the last 20 mins. or so.  Dad has small-cell lung cancer.  It is a fast-spreading cancer.  We will know more after the PET scan tomorrow as far as what stage it is at.  (I am pretty sure it is stage IV.)

Kristi
May 6, 2008 5:30 PM
 

lorid1211 said:

Kristi, my thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.
May 6, 2008 5:37 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I am so sorry Kristi.  My thoughts and prayers are with you and your family.  I just found out my uncle  has cancer but I am not too sure what kind yet.  My 11 yr old brother in law has Hodgekins Lymphoma (if that is how you spell it)  He has gone through rounds of chemo and thank the Lord in Heaven is in remission.  I feel for you.
May 6, 2008 5:42 PM
 

Kimberly said:

Sorry Kristi. Prayers for your dad.
May 6, 2008 5:47 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Kristi. My thoughts and Prayers are with your family. My Grandma Died from *** Cancer. The doctors thought she won but died the next day.

I Support you and your family.
May 6, 2008 5:49 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Sorry Kristi...
May 6, 2008 5:56 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

as for scott you giggle a lot and I'm not sure what about? is it that the two maps look completely diffferent cuz actually they don't the Cold front/Dry line are nearly identical in location. The cold front is farther north but due to it being later in the season you would expect that so I don't know what the heck is so funny. cuz you seem to dis Gary's forecasting a lot. and I really don't find that so funny.
May 6, 2008 6:00 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

HailJon,
Scott has been on Gary's side the whole time, he just tries to start some conversations. I pretty sure that his point is that they ARE very close to the same, showing the LRC.
May 6, 2008 6:19 PM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

Lol. I find this amusing

Continue...
May 6, 2008 6:29 PM
 

simplykristi said:

It's all good with Scott.  

Kristi
May 6, 2008 6:29 PM
 

PoofDragon said:

OK, so they are alike. I don't see it but then I don't spend much time on analysis. I let you guys do that.  ;-)

As for Scott, he's cool. He uses emoticons and LOLs, perhaps too much, but in order to put to rest anyone who might think he's being belligerent.
May 6, 2008 7:09 PM
 

pvt_murphy said:

the squall line is getting its act together, i wonder if it will hold together overnight...

----------

Pvt Murphy,

The thunderstorms in Nebraska are trying to turn southeast.  The ones in Kansas are still heading our way.  This a NOWCAST waiting to be worked on.  I will figure it out by 10 PM.  A lot of people don't realize that my final forecast of the night, on the air, will literally be while I am on at 10 PM. 

Gary

May 6, 2008 7:09 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I think this is the lowest amount of comments I have seen on this blog in a long time.  What are the thoughts on how strong the storms will be when they finally get here?  I love hearing all of your opinions and seeing what happens.  I would also like to thank everyone that was on here the night of all the storms.  You kept me well informed and helped me to not be as scared.  Also, thank you to the weather team for the AWESOME coverage.  I would never watch anyone else!!!
May 6, 2008 7:32 PM
 

juba said:

I read this ealier, but now im going to ask, can you make a quick blog with the rainfall forecats(s)? Thnks, byan.
May 6, 2008 8:08 PM
 

juba said:

I read this ealier, but now im going to ask, can you make a quick blog with the rainfall forecast(s)? Thnks, byan.

-----------------

Byan,

I wish I could give a specific rainfall forecast, but as I said earlier it is very tough.  I still think 1/2 to 1 inch of rain is likely.  If the storm comes out farther north then we could get a lot more, but there will also be a few spots that get less.

Gary

May 6, 2008 8:08 PM
 

LRCfan said:

Kristi I am sorry to hear that about your dad remain positive. Late night rumbles looks like a good possibliity.
May 6, 2008 8:21 PM
 

DPannell said:

Kristi,
I'm so sorry you are going through this very scary and troubling time.  I understand as we have just spent the last 8 months going through the agonizing process with my husband's youngest brother.  We found alot of comfort from a website we on the net.  The Lung Cancer Support Community, not sure if I can post a link but here goes:  www.lchelp.org.  It's loaded with information, support and a very active message board and chat group.  We will keep you and your family in our thoughts and prayers.
--deb and dave pannell
May 6, 2008 8:22 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I wish I was sitting at 72 degrees at 8pm like the Tuesday forecast says on the weather page. But I have been in the mid to low 60s since easly afternoon. Yeck.
May 6, 2008 8:30 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Hi Deb and Dave,
Thanks for the link!  I think that I found the site yesterday.  I've already been posting over there.  I have found the people there helpful.  

Kristi
May 6, 2008 8:41 PM
 

opeterson said:

Question-  On the SPC watch Warning Advisory display, what are pink arrows located over south central Nebraska?
May 6, 2008 8:45 PM
 

momof3 said:

Kristi- My thoughts are with your family.  I am a nurse and have a dad who is fighting cancer.  Whatever you do, don't let them tell you that he has however many months or what.  My dad was diagnosed terminal three years ago and he is still here with us.  Let Gary be the proof.  No one knows how bad it is or when it is your time to go.  Stay strong and help your dad stay strong because your mental state plays a HUGE role in how your body reacts.  Take care.  As far as the weather goes, I am sure hoping that those storms hold together and while I am at work tonight I get to hear lots and lots of thunderstorms!  
May 6, 2008 8:49 PM
 

ethalo said:

I wonder if this will get posted or deleted...hmmm.
Guess I'll give it a shot.

I don't want to "rain" on anybodys parade...But...
This morning from 7 to 9 on the radio (KMBZ)  I heard Gary REPEATEDLY say "It IS going to rain, there IS an 80 % chance of rain TODAY, and I believe it WILL start by noon, if not before."
This was repeated "on the nines"...a mere 3-5 hrs before the rain was going to happen

All the while Gary was saying this on the radio, "the Other" TV station on their morning show was saying "folks, it is basically going to be a dry day, don't cancel any outdoor plans. Rain maybe later, but spotty, and only a 60% chance.

I know, accuracy, accuracy and accuracy, and percentages of accurate forecasting is what makes the mark around here...but 3-5 hrs out and Gary still called it wrong this time. But nobody seems to mind. Oh well.

May 6, 2008 9:08 PM
 

Greg said:

Gary, does nowcasting mean watching radar? ;)
May 6, 2008 9:13 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

ethalo,

He thought the rain would develop, but it didn't. Weather Forecasting is a hard thing to do.
May 6, 2008 9:19 PM
 

Zazel said:

Only an idiot would say "it's basically going to be a dry day" ... "(with) only a 60% chance (of rain)".
May 6, 2008 9:29 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Gary,

From my house here in Jefferson County I have a clear line of sight well into Pottawatomie County.  Beyond that I can clearly see the storms out by Wamego and Ft.Riley/Manhatten.  There seems to be a very large amount of lightening with these storms, at least from my b=vantage point anyhow.  These individual cells must be tracking in a generally eastward direction because the lightening appears in the same areas over and over.  Anyhow, I went active on the SpotterNetwork.  There isn't a lot of traffic on the stormspotter radio bands out in that area at the time.  Several counties have  their spotters out at this time.  I doubt that I will be up pat 1AM.  I'll just sleep and wait for the weather radio alarm to get me back on my feet.  Our dewpoint is now 58.2 and slowly falling along with the pressure and winds are dying down as they all do with the setting of the sun.
May 6, 2008 9:32 PM
 

ethalo said:

Zazel....
He(the "other" guy) said "basically a dry DAY"..as in DAYtime. Gary said 80% chance by noon .
And "they" said rain LATER..as in towards evening...and 60% chance, (not 80%.)
So where is the rain? None today...MAYBE tomorrow..or maybe not.

So, I guess they and Gary were ALL wrong.

Does that suit you better Zazel ?

------------------

We are wrong once in a while, and today was not a great day for us.  Let's hope the same thing doesn't happen tomorrow.  Usually I go 100% chance of rain when we "know" it is going to rain.  We knew something was strange about today.

Gary

May 6, 2008 9:47 PM
 

ethalo said:

Andrew,
Forecasting is hard? That's what they are paid for, and that's their chosen profession. They can take a little bit of heat when warranted.

I don't have any bones to pick with you, Andrew, but I was just pointing out the importance of "accuracy" as so many of you sing Gary's praises for. But when he is wrong, the singing still goes on. Amazing. (that's even what Gary said tonight on the 5 oclock..he said "We were wrong, Amazing"...like he was amazed that he was wrong for a change. )

And, Andrew, congratultaions on your brother winning the Jr.Met. contest!(But, that wouldn't make you a bit biased would it?)
May 6, 2008 9:55 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Ethalo,
When you stick with someone because they are 99.9% right and have that very slim chance of being wrong, there is nothing wrong with telling them that it is ok to be wrong.  Gary and the team work very hard and usually have no problems with making the forcast.  Gary had also mentioned earlier today that this forcast today was going to be difficult because the way things were setting up.  He was saying there that things may be hard to forcast today.  I have watched other people in the past and they were wrong like every other day.  Let us praise our weather team and the hard work that they do and let them know that even if people like you come in here and slam on them, we still appreciate them.!!!
May 6, 2008 10:13 PM
 

Stilwell said:

I missed Gary's forecast tonight (watching a movie) are we supposed to get storms overnight?
May 6, 2008 10:29 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

well my bad then, I'm not trying to pick a fight with anybody I'm not that good at online emotions I guess I appologize.
May 7, 2008 1:08 AM
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