NBC Action Communities

I won't bash you.  If weather forecasting was so easy you wouldn't have an audience.  Fortunately for you and your team it isn't easy, so we all rely on you.  I think you in-house models and forecast are probably right.  It wouldn't dissapoint me one bit if the bulk of this stayed south of I-70.  We need to dry out a bit and spread the precip out some.  Your not the only ones getting a run for your time.  Look at all those storm chasers running out to what looks like a hot area and its not developing quite the way one might expect.  Keep the tech gizmo's coming, I really like that powercast feature.

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Thank you.  And, you are right.  Yesterday was a bust for chasers.  The Discovery Channel has a caravan of about a dozen vehicles chasing and they all chose the wrong spot yesterday, getting caught in western Texas where nothing happened at all.  Doppler on Wheels was also in the wrong spot.  So, this storm is being very mean to meteorologists around the entire region.

Gary

If it doesn't rain today, it is all my fault.  I finally bought a wireless digital rain gauge and set it up over the weekend.  If we go into a dry period it is clearly because of my actions. Many apologies in advance to those hoping for rain and storms.  :)

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I knew there was another factor.  Maybe we can test out your new rain gauge later today.

Gary

While we watch you guys because we trust your accuracy we're not silly enough to think you'll always nail it. We love you guys!   I'm hoping Larry2KCDaily doesn't live south of town.  I planted a bunch of stuff yesterday and I would like some natural watering today.  

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It may be frustrating as a lot of rain will be just south of us.  Maybe it will shift north.

Gary

Gary,
My line of work requires me to record the weather. The high, low and any precip. Is there any where on your web site that has this? I know there is many other websites, but it would be great if I could just come here every morning. By the way I would just ignore any that tries to bash you. If they think that they can do better... well I think we have been there before.

Thanks.

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You can go to the National Weather Service website and get all of that information. Go to:  http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=eax  And click on the CF6 data.

Gary

I want rain but this looks scarly, familur? A wall of heavy snow moving right up to us, strengthening as it came, the we had an hour of heavy snow then it stoped, instantaneously! WE got an inch of snow from that, and this looks even weaker! I DON'T have high hopes for this, although I need it to rain cause I have some plants I moved and planted that need water every day for 3-5 months! So rain will save me A LOT of money, MAKE IT RAIN!

I was up from 2 am on this morning off and on, heard the sprinkles, and just a bit of wind pick up for a few minutes.   0.02 in the raingauge.

I vote for no rain - my daughter is going with her entire 6th grade on a 2-night campout to a place just south of KC (you probably would recognize where) and they will be doing outdoor activities today and tomorrow.

Morning Gary!  First off, everyone in MO knows how hard it is for you weather people to 'get it' right.  Your's is one of the toughest jobs anyone can have around here and you will never hear me bash you.  

Ok, now back to this unpredictable weather for today.  After looking at the in-motion national radar, I saw the comma head make a slight shift to the north while that rain, out in KS, shifted southward.  It appears the storm is swallowing up the distrubence out there and so I am thinking we are in for a very good soaker since there seems to be no apparent northward flow winds to keep it pushed to the south.

My weather forecast is:  Clouds for the morning.  By noon, thickening clouds and by evening time the rain will start its way in and should rain most all night.  :)  I'll stand by ya Gary! lol

Laura in Raytown

I'm confused you're talking about very little rain for KC, but you have an 80% chance?  Is this 80% chance for the southern viewing area?

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The 80% chance will verify for areas south of I-70 as rain is heading our way.  But, the best chance of more than one inch of rain increases as you move south.

Gary

Well Gary does this thing appear to be making a further north jog now so western KCK can get some rain?

Hey guys, I feel really bad cuz I was praying for no rain.  I know it could still shift but as of now if you had to guess how much do you think lee's summit will get? I will not hold you to it I promise, you guys do an awesome job and i read this blog everyday. Thanks, Kristy

Gary---these storms did miss us in Topeka at the end of January---I have the forecast from around here at that time and we were supposed to get 4-6 inches of snow and received really nothing.  So really the LRC  at least showed the potential of these missing us.  We got nothing last night!  Some sprinkles---I just hope the storms don't continue a more southerly track again over the next month and we miss out.  We might get a shower today but we will see. In your viewing area I am sure it is difficult to put a percentage of rain out there and one part gets some rain and another gets nothing.  I can't wait to hear what you see for the summer.  Thanks, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

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Michael,

If I were a genius, then I would have used the LRC.  There is very little doubt that this is directly related to that storm on January 31st.  The same things are happening, but instead of snow it is rain this time.  A foot of snow fell across southern Kansas, and the rainfall  pattern developing right now looks very similar to the snowfall pattern from that storm.  This is an amazing example of the LRC, and how we are truely in the "same" pattern that set up in October.  And, what happened next is in the forecast for the next week.  A deep trough dug into the middle of the nation with a huge ridge over the Pacific northwest in  early February.  So, guess what, this is what the models are forecasting for the next week again. 

Gary

We have plenty of farmers around here who'd like to get their crops into the ground. We certainly don't need 5". We don't even need a .5" rain for a while.

Anyhow, we received .21" overnight here in Emma, MO. With existing dampness, that'll keep me away from mowing for a while longer.

Walt Snyder

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Walt,

I know a few dry days would be nice.  It will be tough to get more than 3 days in a row dry with this pattern we are in.  There may be one dry stretch, but I don't see it yet.

Gary

Yesterday morning I had .55 inches of rain and today I woke up with .45 inches. With that said my yard is a swamp and it is about to get worse. Ugh!! Stop the madness will ya...:o)   Last night we had some pretty good rumbles of thunder with rain and wind around 1:30am. Even thought it is not raining yet we have a very heavy mist going on. This is not going to be a good day....my sump pump goes off about every 10 minutes. Thank god I have one though. Have a good day.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

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Monica,

You should be in a good rain at times today.  Let's see where the northern edge of the comma sets up.

Gary

gary and team we all make mistakes things dont happen right all the time so all i can say keep up the great job this dont change my mind.

Gary, are Holden/Kingsville in the 5" band along with Warrensburg?

Gary, today the blog comments are so pleasurable to read.  You must know that your supporters are far, far, far more in number than the obnoxious bullies that spoil the blog.  I get really troubled by them--S_ _ _ _, in particular.  I feel that if people don't like the spirit of this blog, then they should find one that suits them better.  A good motto is "Be ye kind one to another".

You are the best; please don't leave Kansas City!!!!!
Edna

Quick!  Everyone in the Northland, go wash your cars!!

So Since were in Olathe Would we be part of this area that will see around an inch of rain. Or would it still be to the south of us. I want this thing to move northward.

Also I just got a Custom Made T-shirt that says Weatherman On it with lightning.

Its pretty cool.

Hopefully the rain slowly moves up.

.25" 323rd and hwy 7  between Garden City and Creighton.   Really more than we need right now.  Don't need the 6" at all.  Worried about my farm dam holding up under the strain.

I wouldn't mind 2 or 3 inches of rain, would help put water in the pond.  Most of the farmers around here got the crops in the last 3 days.  We may have had over 40 inches of snow during the winter, but we are really way behind what other areas to our south have had in terms of year-to-date precipiation.  Will it continue to be this way?

chfs327, your T-shirt sounds great!  Enjoy it!

Question for anyone:  What is the procedure to change my email address?  I need to change it so I can keep getting the weather alerts.  Thank you!
Edna

Just wanted to say that I really like the new weather forecast page.  Gayr, when you said it was being updated, I was worried that you would "improve" it to the point of being not user-friendly, as some other stations' websites have done (not that I am looking at other stations' websites, mind you!!).

Besides being the most accurate, I really love that the forecast page is an easy to read visual that I can just glance at for the daily and weekly forecast.  

Thanks!!

Oops, I meant "Gary" not "Gayr" ... gotta slow down my typing!

I just want to say that I will never bash you for saying we are going to get rain/snow/etc then end up with nothing...but if the opposite happens (no rain then we get drowned), then I may say some bad things under my breath : )

Thanks for all you guys do on this site...I told myself that after the winter threats were over, I was going to stop checking out the blog on a daily/hourly basis, but dang it, it's just so addicting!  :)

No bashing from me, team..  I respect you.  You were not confident that we were going to get the storms.

I must admit that I was right about the storms last night.  My gauge barely moved, if at all.  Today's forecast...  What you see outside right now.. cloudy.  I don't really see us get much rainfall at all.

People can make fun of my gut feeling but it does work most of the time. :)  I have been taken off guard a couple of times in the last few weeks tho.

Kristi  

I know this one will leave a mark, and I expect some will not like my thoughts.

First, shame on you Gary for this remark:

“If I were a genius, then I would have used the LRC.”  

For as much as the LRC is attributed to your forecast accuracy, to discount using it to not being smart enough is silly.

I think you didn’t trust it.  And shame on you again for that.  In times where you will tout an upcoming storm because of the LRC, and at times even become frustrated where others don’t believe, for you now to come and say that you yourself didn’t trust it is even more frustrating.

So, before I get killed on this, I have trusted the LRC and the subsequent surface analysis all along with this storm.  I think folks can clearly note a difference in my participation and analysis from the storm last week to what was discussed for this storm.  I didn’t see it based on the trends and really paid it little attention.

I used the LRC/surface trending.  The Discovery Channel folks did not.  I would have expected the LRC creator to.  He did not.  That is what is most frustrating.  Not missing the forecast, but not using the tools available to make the best forecast.

For a forecaster that did not know about the LRC, it would be like forming a forecasting without model input.  It would be like nowcasting without looking out the window first.

Arrgh.  

Ok…done with that thought.  The other is this.  I appreciate admitting the error.  That is a stand up move.  I am somewhat curious about the rest asking “Try not to bash us if the rain misses your location.  Remember, we already feel pretty bad about this forecast as we continue to wait for our first real good rain shower of the week.”

Sounds like a pre-emptive strike.  Just admit the error, apologize and move on.  Further asking for no critique doesn’t seem fair.  If people made plans based on your forecast, and it busted..then folks are certainly justified to be frustrated..and it would be fair to voice it.  

As much as it is fair to promote weather accuracy, it is fair to hear the critique when you miss one.  

So, before the lynch mob comes, I will end with this.  I will continue supporting this team with my participation in the blog along with my viewership.  I believe this is the best team in town and understand that no one is perfect.  That said, anytime critique is offered, it should not be viewed as a personal attack and often can be used as a base in getting better.

Let’s think about the evolution of the LRC in the last two years and its subsequent use in long range forecasting as a perfect example.  It didn’t come from everyone saying how great it was.  It came from those that pushed and stretched the conversation to further growth.

Too bad it wasn’t used for this storm  ;-)

New blog up...Scott you may want to copy and paste yours to the new blog entry. It is a good one and might get missed by most. Bet you and Gary were writing yours at the same time. LOL!!
Monica