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Do you think they will just be thunderstorms or strong to severe thunderstorms?
byan.

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Byan,

There isn't even a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.

Gary

Good, I don't want to be dissapointed when it says they might happen and they don't!

Gary,

It is amazing how this storm was similiar to several during the winter, with such a dramatic cuttoff line on the precipitation. Here in SW Grain Valley, I sqeaked out .26 from the whole storm but only a few miles south of here totals approached almost an inch and of course the St Louis, Columbia, Springfield got a deluge but most of the KC area got little or nothing.  Hopefully if this next storm will provide the rest of us some rain, especially those up north.

Jeff  

Just .05 overnight  323rd and hwy7 between Garden City and Creighton.   an inch for the storm.

Do you know anything about CoCoRaHS?    I received a letter about it a few years ago from the U of MO Extension and this week received an email from their horticulture dept.     It seems the U of Col.  is trying to get lots of weather observers throughout the nation in order to get pinpoint weather results.    cocorahs.org
Just wondering if you know anything about it?

The complex will get here a bit earlier tomorrow, but a pretty good guess based off the GFS/NAM models.

The RUC paints a good picture of it.  Yet another complex following a small upper level vort.  

I am getting ready for next week.

goodlife,

I don't want to speak for Gary but I belong to CoCoRaHS. I joined a couple of years ago and really enjoy being a part of it. It doesn't cost anything yes its free and they send you a marvelous and acurate rain gauge and you keep and submit daily precip amounts. There are nearly 300 members in Missouri and growing besides in 33 other states and over 5000 members now. Its very interesting to see the precip amounts from across the state vs just the big cities and other states as well. I totally recommend joining if you like that sort of thing.

Jeff  

I have seen the hints from the NWS about the potential for severe weather next week.  For all you experts on the board, what is the setup looking like?  Thanks!

WannaBe, topical post.  I need to check the NWS discussion still, but in looking at the models and factoring in LRC parameters, I am watching Tues night and during the day on Wed.

I think - as it is still quite a few days out, Tues night/overnight would be more of the discrete thunderstorm threat and Wednesday day into night may be more of a MCS flooding threat.

It looks like a very dynamic storm.  I will be curious to watch how the 500mb ULL sets up and where and how/where the associated synoptic boundaries are set.

It is still too early, but the Tues night setup if sticks as the GFS shows it, should bear watching.

I've lost track of things in regards to the LRC; where exactly are we in terms of the upcoming storms for this particular cycle?  I guess I'm trying to get a handle on what those of you who follow the LRC more closely feel is coming in the near future.

Here is some interesting food for thought.  

For Saturday, there is some very mild wording from the NWS about a slight severe potential in the area…

“SO DEPENDING ON TRACK OF THE SURFACE
WAVE...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS
WAVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA.”

Ok.  The SPC concurs, but takes the main threat even further south…

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

Let’s do a bit of blog cycle analysis.  If you buy into the LRC, this is one of many tools I use.  Because of the nice achieving of the blog, it allows one to go back to the previous cycle and get a feel for what happened then as it relates to more detail for that day.  It is more localized and more in-depth than any model or other general synopsis for that day.

So, 50 days behind this upcoming Saturday would be discussions in the blog from about March 20-22nd.

Here is something very interesting on March 20th.

http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/weatherblog/archive/2008/03/20/2781962.aspx

“If it were just a few weeks later, the dew points would likely be in the 50s and 60s. Take this same set up later in April or May and we would have a moderate risk of severe thunderstorms,”

So, is this possible?  Looking at the GFS MOS, it has the dewpoints in the upper 40s and lower 50s progged.  Surface temps look in the 60s, so it’s really hard to get excited about this as this would indicate a decent chance of cloud cover due to the high RH values.

The GFS confirms this on the 66hr view for late afternoon on Saturday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_700_066l.gif

Looking at the 10m view, if you look at the frontal boundary shown in the March entry and compare to this, there are some similarities.  I am taking the 54 hr view of the 12Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/images/gfs_ten_054l.gif

The surface low progged is in SW KS vs Central KS in March [this could just be a timing issue on the time elapse in the model runs].

Let’s do a drawing exercise.

Draw a cold front from the surface low in SW KS northeast to just north of the Great Lakes along the green shading.  Connect it to the surface low up there.  Continue the cold front behind the surface low following the contours of the cold air pulling in behind.

Now compare that to March.  Very similar.  However, March gives a bit of a warm front along the boundary in NE KS.  Let’s look back at the 10m link where we drew the cold front for this Saturday.

Notice on the contours that there is a strong temperature “ridge” appearance very near the surface low.  

Draw your little segment of a warm front there.  Now, look at the two surface features from March to May.  Very very similar.

[Gary – weigh in if I described this right – still in my final stages of synoptic drawing  ;-)  I will settle for a B and not an A+ - LOL]

Since the climate is different in May than March, we will have to see how these impact the event.  I am still not holding much hope for anything much on Saturday.  I am not sure we get enough surface heating to make this much of anything.  

Maybe some rain.

I thought this to be pretty cool.  So, if you like this..think about next week as we enter the “wet” period and start with Tues/Wed.  Look back in the blog for the same range and look at how things looked then.

Some of the things will be different such as temps/dewpoints, but focus on the surface maps, analysis, and upper air features/discussions in the blog.

Very interesting.  ;-)

Scott - specifically, what "parameters" of the cycling theory are you incorporating when you are eyeing Tuesday night and Wednesday for severe weather?

I thought it didn't help with convection?!?

so for saturday... whats people's thinking on the royals game that starts at 6:10? i got a large group going out that way. You guys think its gonna get rained out or just maybe a delay?

thanks.

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Right now the game may be wet...showers are in the forecast later Saturday.  Still time for the forecast to change:)

Jeremy

My apologies for this off-topic post, but I couldn't find any other resources on the NBC Action Weather site, so thought I would post to this group since you all seem to be quite "in the know" on the local KC weather scene.

Here's the Q: where can I find historical data on wind direction in the KC area for 2 times of day - 7AM and 5PM?

The reason for my question is very goofy, but I'm determined to find out if my ancedotal experience is correct. I bike to work heading southeast, returning home heading northwest and I'm convinced that more than 50% of the time, I'm riding into a headwind for both trips. Nuts? Possibly, but I liked to put this one to rest.
Any thoughts on where I can find the data?
Thanks for the help!
- Steve

Knowing my luck I'm headin out of town to the St. Louis area and Rolla next Saturday, and we will probably have a severe weather outbreak - lol.

Notes,

As you know, I have a different application of the LRC concept in some ways than Gary, so this specific thought is only based on MY interpretation of the LRC.

Ok..that said, I believe the parameters at play are the 500mb troughs/ridges and general setup as it relates to mesoscale analysis for this area.

With the "wet" pattern expect to start next week, I am expecting more western troughing.  It has been consistent since October in this manner.

Ok, so I am expecting nice return flow ahead of this troughing.  Also, I am expecting based on the surface trends, that we will be catching quite a bit of moisture.

Ok..so, in my opinion, moisture will not be a problem.  Upper air support will not be a problem.  Of the ingredients that go into a convective environment, as you can attest, these are signficant ingredients.  This can cover forcing, lift, moisture and potentially sheer - depending on the specific LRC pattern in question.

If I can expect these based on the pattern going into the model analysis, it does help in understanding more of the synoptic relationships and ultimately where things may set up.

So, no...it alone does not determine convection, but it does help with the other parameters that are related along with convection that determine severe set up potential.

My point yesterday was that absent of any LRC queues [assuming LRC analysis only], convection is still possible albeit most likely in a pulse environment.

Notes, I have seen you more in the last three months than maybe all of last year, or it feels that way.  I am glad to see you around more.  

I appreciate the questions, the challenges, and the learning opportunities!

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Scott,

If the surface low stays well to our south on Tuesday...so may the best severe weather threat.  Maybe another go around for southern Missouri?

Jeremy

eventpublisher,

Use this link...

http://www.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=eax

Select the CF6 data for the site you want to check.  Look at columns 10-12 for wind speed and direction.

Scott - Based on your theory stuff (not based on model output), how is the saturday setup less likely than the tues/wed setup for convection?

Your post above sounds incredibly generalized again - just a broad-brush 'more active part of a pattern' absent any specifics.  What about your theory favors next week rather than 2 days from now?

Are you willing to put out a July 4th weekend forecast based on your theory?  A LOT of people care about outdoor events that week...so how about applying this into the future rather than hindsight as was done yesterday?  

Jeremy (or Scott!) - Friday May 16 I'm flying out of KCI at 7:30 a.m. -- do I need to load up on the dramanine for a bumpy ride?  Is there anything going through that area then (best guess?)

Then again, I paid almost $500 for a ticket that usually costs $200 - and didn't get the insurance - so I'm going even if it IS stormy!  If you tell me now there's gonna be tornados I'll probably have a breakdown between now and then!  :)

Afternoon all,

Weatherteam, is your radar program capable of reading the new Super-Res 88D Data from Pleasant Hill?  I noticed that the new software shipped this week to them.  http://www.roc.noaa.gov/ssb/cm/csw_notes/Completion.aspx?ID=2689

Just curious to know if we will see a new radar look from you guys.  BTW, love the new HD broadcast.  It is much nicer to watch now on my TV.

Later,
Mike in Ottawa

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Mike,

We just got an update to LIVE:ESP that will use this technology when the NWS starts using it.

Jeremy

Jeremy, I am reserving judgement on where the surface lows set up.  The GFS 6z showed another surface low in SE Nebraska.  

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_144.shtml

The 12z drops it out.  If there is a northern surface low, then that is my thinking for the impact in this area.

It will all depend on how the ULL forms and the associated pressure falls ahead of it.  If it follows a bit stronger on the northern stream, then I expect to see that surface low back.  If it follows the 12Z GFS view on the southern stream, then it will be further south.

Fortunately, we have quite a few more runs to figure it out.  ;-)

Notes,

In general [and I know this will be hard to believe], I do keep my thoughts on this blog to a high level or mid level view when pressed for time.  I know many folks think I do nothing else but blog, but sometimes life and work gets in the way.

LOL.

So, yes, I was pretty broad above, but tried to paint the picture of general things I believe are impacts.  You want very specific things.  And that is fine.  For those things, I am more than willing with a bit more time go through every parameter I look at and provide a full synopsis of each.  

If I were to do that here for the detail and depth you want, my post would likely take up 5-8 pages worth.  

Probably not what most folks are looking for here.

In a nutshell, the difference between Sat and Tues is the timeframe closer to the active pattern that has been communicated since December in each of the cycles.   Saturday is a bit early for the setup I am expecting.  

This pattern has some distinct differences in upper level flow which I am thinking is beginning on Tues through the week into the following.  That is why I think Sat and Tues are different based on the characteristics of the upper air as it relates to the LRC.

This will probably not suffice in answering your question, and I understand that..but thought I owed you a response all the same.

As far as a long range forecast for July 4th.  Sure I will do that.  In the same vein, recently you have requested a forecast comparison long range between you and me.  

I openly accepted that challenge and asked for the parameters, but never heard back from you.  So, in bringing this up again, I ask..for long range, what parameters do you want to use?

Daily forecasts?  High/low temps?  Weekly forecasts?  How far out - 1 week, 1 month, 1 season?  How will we measure it?  KMCI?  Average of regional stations?

You pick.  I will do whatever you are most comfortable doing - just let me know the rules, and lets get to it.

;-)

Id really like to see some severe weather for Friday, and some heavy rain.  Im staying in Friday all day so it will be great to relax to some thunderstorms!


Im actually in Colorado Springs right now in the terminal waiting to fly back to KC and the mountains out here are still snow covered....its so nice out here!  Talk about weird weather as well.  These mountains especially pikes peak are practically weather machines for this city.  

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Mountains, oceans, and lakes(Great Lakes) can create some very tough micro climates to forecast for.

Jeremy

How about we do a forecast for the week of July 4th.  In the interest of keeping it truly long range, the forecast will be due by May 15th (over 45 days out).  As soon as you post yours, I'll post mine.

What do you think of doing high/low/precip each day (June 29th through July 5th) for MCI?  Every value would have to be for the calendar day (12am-11:59pm) for indisputable, objective verification.

We'll measure temperature error degrees (how far from the actuals) and precip error points (just a raw difference between amounts forecast and actualized) and see how we compare to one-another in those two categories?

Keep in mind, this isn't meant to be any kind of grueling, time-consuming exercise (unless you choose make it so).  Mine will be brief and I will put painfully little into the deep analysis - just a quick attempt to see how your long-range theory stacks up against a more traditional approach that I will utilize.

Post by Midnight on 5/15 here on the blog so others can track our results?  Others can participate as well?

Any other thoughts/changes/etc...?

===

Additionally, I've recently pondered putting together an online weather forecasting competition that I think would be a truly enjoyable exercise for you and me and many others - but it wouldn't be long range...just a more traditional short-term forecasting setup...forecasting the next 2-3 days and doing that several days per week with an automated and objective verification point and scoring system.   Hell, even Gary's forecasts could be put into the system.  If you think you'd be fair game, I'll continue to work to see if I can get it set up to happen.  Something like this would take time and energy on my part so I don't want to do it if there isn't interest...but if there is interest, I'm at least willing to try.  I can't guarantee anything, but if I'm able to procure the code for such a game, I think it'd be fun.

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When I was in college Penn St. ran a nationwide forecast competition for Meteorology students.  Every two weeks a new city would be choosen and I think the forecast only went out about 2-3 days max, maybe even less.  I thought it was funny because the people in my class who were generally at the top of the class were poor forecasters!  But everyone had fun and this seems like an idea that bloggers would love.

Jeremy......And, Gary says that you guys should take that July 4th week as a whole.  In other words...How much rain will fall that week, and will the temperatures be below average, above average, and by how much?  What do you think.

Gary

Notes, I am game.  I will work on this.  I presume I will be forecasting against seasonal norms, so I will obviously have to focus on anomolies.  This works well for me.

The precip error points will be challenging..but equally so for both of us.  POPs might be easier, but probably too subjective.

It will be a bit of work for me to do as I have to factor in the LRC..but no worries.  I think I have enough data already that it would be more analysis than data collection.

I think this will be fun.  More than anything, I will enjoy the process and the opportunity to learn from the results.  I hope this can be used as a learning experience and not an conclusion as to the validity of the LRC itself.  I would think much more testing would be required to validate anything further than this one exercise.

;-)

As far as the online competition, I would love to participate.  This will help me bone up on my short term forecasting.  

Notes, one of your comments made me laugh after thinking about it.

Sure, you could load in Gary's forecasts, but you could also load in the other local stations as well.

Think about the money we could save this station for a free online forecast verification?  LOL...but not sure what a "Rated most accurate by NotesintheMargin" seal would mean to the general public.

LMAO.

Might be a nice piggyback segment for the local writers in light of the recent pub on forecast accuracy.

Hmmm...

Looks like maybe some rain tomorrow morning, one thing that I find neat about MCS are the unique little weather set ups that the storms can create on their own, so tomorrow morning may be interesting, the only tough thing for me is, should I try to stay up really late, or try and get up as early as possible tomorrow morning, tough call, the powercast would have suggested the former, but the NAM and GFS would tell me the latter... hmmm.
One thing that I notice is Mother's Day is looking rather cold, with strong winds out of the north west at the 850 mbar level and light surface pressure gradient, not only that but both the GFS and the NAM have temps below freezing at the 850 mbar level at 7 a.m. on Sunday morning, at least I think that is what I am seeing, it almost looks as if the atmosphere would be CLOSE to producing snow!!!!!!!!, won't happen for sure, but still impressive cool set-up on Sunday morning.

Scott - good deal - it'll be fun.  You're right - my forecast will likely be much closer to seasonal norms since it will be long range...

I'm much more excited about the prospect of a regular weather forecasting competition though - I do enjoy short-term forecasting much more.  I think having a regular, objective, public, and transparent way to play would be fun.  And you're entirely right - we could enter all the station forecasts as well for the region.  The only downside with those is that some will claim that verifying with KMCI is not "fair" or that they don't shoot for that point...so to that end, the viability of using station forecasts is weakened...but for those of us individuals who agree to play, we could play with KMCI in mind.  

Are you saying that "Rated most accurate by NotesInTheMargin" is less valuable than WeatherRate?!?  How could you?!?  Ha!

Jeremy - yes...when in college, I too competed in a forecasting competition which I loved...a great way to see the practical implications of the theoretical coursework.  Good stuff.

I like the new graphics for the forecasts on the web page.  However, I had a question - why does the wind data on the hourly forecast shoot off to the side?

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Whenever the winds are 10-15 or higher that will be added for dramatic effect:)  Actually, some of the templates are being reloaded by the end of Friday and most things should be back to normal then.  We are hoping to have more additions to the weather page in the next week.  Make sure to check back!

Jeremy

I haven't seen any thoughts on tonight...will there be storms in the area tonight?

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Gary was at an event today and we are working on some other computer stuff right now.  I'd say after the 5pm show you can expect an update.  But showers and some thunderstorms are in the forecast tonight.  Should be after midnight-2am for many areas.

Jeremy

okay what I wanna know is who stole my MCS the other night...or did it happen and I slept through it. and there is some crazy analysis going on right now are we do for one tonight or is it going to miss us? Lemme know weather freeks. Peace love and weather.

Thanks for the response!! I love the blog! So informative, and fun!

Ok, I've only been on this blog site for a couple of weeks. I'm trying o learn all of the jargon. Please, tell me what is 'LRC'.

Wall cloud heading into Birmingham, Alabama.  Live streaming video.

http://nbc13.com/gulfcoastwest/vtm/news/live_video.html

"And, Gary says that you guys should take that July 4th week as a whole.  In other words...How much rain will fall that week, and will the temperatures be below average, above average, and by how much?  What do you think."

Gary doesn't get to input unless he is going to submit his forecast...LOL.

I could do this as well, but its up to Notes to agree.  Its simply an aggregate of what we are already doing for each day...

I always check back.  I have been rather busy lately to write anything, but I check the blog every day - multiple times a day!!!!

 Lorie in SW MO said:
Ok, I've only been on this blog site for a couple of weeks. I'm trying o learn all of the jargon. Please, tell me what is 'LRC'.

=Lezak's Really Cool

Lezak's Recurring Cycle, Gary believe's and most of us too that the weather pattern cycles each year and sets up between October 1st and November 10th and vary in length. this years cycle is around 50-54 days long.

another thing is that the cycle always falls apart every year in late summer but not always the same time each summer

Lingering Rhetorical Controversy

LMAO - Rdub

NOW...no one ever answered my question..Did the MCS we were supposed to have hit the other night? Did I sleep through it? or did it not come together. and Are we supposed to have one tonight?

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It never came through our local area.  Maybe tonight.

Gary

RDub said:
"Lingering Rhetorical Controversy"

Well-played.

Scott - I'll have to get back to you on that.  It is an interesting thought...and is Gary going to play?!?  I've got to run, but we have some time to work out the details - and we've already got a good start I think.

Though I am a firm believer in the LRC that is pretty hilarious...

It ain't what you know, it's what you know that just ain't so that will give you problems.   Mark Twain

No, Jonathan, we did not get much precip.

I pretty much nailed my prediction.  Not bad for someone who doesn't use the models. :)

Kristi

Hail Jon ~ that's what I thought after 'googling' but wasn't sure if that was a true acronym. Thanks.
RDub ~ not too far off ;-)
Notes ~ I knew that one already.

So based on LRC, I'm with you Hummer, about the weather in the next week and a half. I fly in and out of KC on the 19th and in & out again on the 25th. I have to take a puddle jumper into KC. 8-{

Kristi Somehow I knew it would be  you that would come through for me on that question Thank you and good job.

Lorie no problem. I've been watchin weather since I was 8 and have a natural instinct about it not too mention I know a lot of the jargon terms that not other people know so you've got questions MOST LIKELY I'll have answers, I'll do my best anyway. Scott and Notes are pretty smart too but they like to play around a little bit to get to the answer.

Gary, hope the luncheon went well this year and brought in lots of support.
I was at last years luncheon, and have participated (financially... not physically), in the shave-to-save event through work since it started. What a great event and great cause. Thanks for your continued dedication.
(back to regularly scheduled weather now...)

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It was a very well organized event, benefitting the Hope Lodge for the American Cancer Society.  Today's event raised $130,000.

 

Gary

wow  $130K... excellent!
Now... any chance the rain will be over for the 11:00am David Cook event at the power and light district tomorrow?

that's Awesome!

I thought it was funny because the people in my class who were generally at the top of the class were poor forecasters!  But everyone had fun and this seems like an idea that bloggers would love.

Jeremy
***********************************************************
R-kow isn't amused...
LOL *************** That meant that both Ryan and myself were good forecasters. You...well...:) Those met. classes are tough! Jeremy

Gary,
Thank you for all your tireless efforts on behalf of those with cancer.  I can't thank you enough!

Kristi

Kristi - you are 1 for 2 now for predictions in the last week or so.  About on par with some of our other local mets.

;-)

I know this is not weather-related but I know lots of people are thinking about us and/or praying for us.  Here's the latest on my dad:

Dad was admitted to the hospital this morning.  He is in a considerable amount of pain.  Five milligrams of morphine as needed is not working.  My mom and I told the nurse and she is going to try to another cocktail.  I will be heading back to the hospital this evening with my youngest brother.

We met the oncologist.  The consult was ordered because the nurse told me at one point.  At 12:30, the oncologist came in and spoke with my parents and I for the first time.  We all three really like him.  The oncologist was very upfront with us, which we really appreciated.  We learned about the treatment plan and got the results of the PET scan.  The PET scan pretty much revealed what we knew... There is spread to the liver (couple of spots) and the some of the bones.  The prognosis is 1 to 2 years with treatment.  Without treatment, it would be a month or two.  We are not looking for a cure.  There's a chance that the treatment could fail my dad.  The oncologist said that he has seen it happen in a handful of patients.  The oncologist wants to do radiation first to help decrease my dad's pain.  He is guessing 10 to 15 sessions.  He will get a radiation doc into see him either today or tomorrow. Could possibly start radiation before he is discharged from the hospital.  Chemo will start after radiation ends. I asked the oncologist about what would be used... He told me Carboplatin and VP-16.

Dad is having an MRI this afternoon.  They are doing an MRI of the brain and spine. The internist will be by to see him after 5 PM (after office hours).

Our immediate goal is to get my dad's pain managed.  The next biggest goal is my oldest niece's wedding on Sat., June 14th.  Quality of life is still the main goal.

Kristi

Thanks, Scott. LOL  I did blow one recently. LOL

Kristi

Stormdog - .13" here - WOW - was I impressed?  Certainly NOT.  As for tonite, sounds like a repeat - most of it going ESE to our south (see NWS PM discussion), and it fits the pattern, ad infinitum, ad nauseum - also these cool temps are ridiculous for May - my Redbud trees are just beginning to leaf out - a month behind - shows how cold/cool this year has been.  We will see if severe weather season (except for that unfortunate incident in Nrn KC the other day) will kick in, or will go straight into summer.  

Cheers,
Dog

Hang in there Kristi and though it sounds cliche, do keep the faith.
And... keep up the good work blogging the weather here.

Gary,

Could you tell me what station WeatherRate uses to verify the KC-area stations against?

Thanks.

I don't know what to say Kristi. My heart goes out to you. From past experience with a friend, I know that their and their families positive outlook helped immensely.

Good luck hanging in there Kristi, you have your hands full.   I watched my dad go slowly after complications from surgery.   He was in no pain, thank goodness, but it was tough on everyone else.   Hope your moms tests went well.

Hang in there

Hey there is a high wind warning for the area around Topeka, I wonder if it is another large scale "macrobust" of sorts, well it looks like the rain is about to move into St. Joe from this system, a few sprinkles at my house so far but that is it.