NBC Action Communities

Gary, I am requesting .75 inches of rain at Hillsdale Lake for my cows.  Thank You.

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I put your request in.

Gary

Gary,

Which reporting station does WeatherRate use to verify the KC-area forecasts?  I'm assuming it is KMCI, but I'm not certain.

Thanks

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Notes,

It is KMCI.  And, our forecast has been within 3 degrees every day this week at KMKC, downtown, but we misse by 4 degrees each of the past three days at KMCI.  I don't like that.

Gary

Gary,

Don't be so hard on yourself. I don't think anyone expects perfection. I enjoy your enthusiam, your dogs and your love of snow! My daughter likes watching you as well.

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Oh, everything is great, but it better rain later tonight.

Gary

I'm just curious....what is your current thinking on the forecast for July 4th week??

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You must wait!  It is a forecast challenge between Scott and Notes, and don't you think I should participate?  I think the deadline for us to post our forecast to the blog is May 15th.

Gary

Hey Gary, saw your weather cast @ 6p.m.  Didn't see a total for Lee's summit.  I know you can't put every city on there, but how much do you think we will get?  Thanks, kristy

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We had you in the .45 to .75" range.

Gary

no matter what your all probaby gonna be wrong IMO. that is two months off, get real. Gary predicted a blizzard in his winter forecast. that was way off. We were too warm. I dont see how Gary, Scott, etc. Can say its hard to predict on the day of some weather events, Now you want to go two months out?

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Twister, just like yesterdays forecast for a rainy day that didn't materialize, my blizzard forecast didn't materialize.  But, the other elements of my long and short range forecasts have been quite accurate.  My point is, when you miss one forecast, it doesn't mean you missed everyone. We are much more accurate than you are giving us credit for.

Gary

Gary

If this year's LRC lasts until August, we'll all save some money on our electric bills this summer.  Good thing, with gas pushing $4 per gallon, we'll have to spend the money we save on gas for our lawnmowers!

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Well, the summer is always a wild card on the LRC.  We are going to attempt a forecast for the summer soon.

Gary

How is our ROTC Worlds of Fun trip looking for Saturday?  We will be there from 10AM - 5PM.

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Jacob,

Right now it looks like rain, but only after 3 PM. Let's see how it times out tomorrow.

Gary

Hopefully new data comes in that we will get around.5 inch of rain.

Great idea on the forecast competition for the week leading into July 4th. I'd like to play, too.

Question: with the possibility of great variability in rainfall totals because of convective storms, is there any wisdom in forecasting an average across three data points such as KMCI, KMKC and a third location? Or does forecasting for a whole week dampen out the variability at one location? Not trying to complicate things ... just wondering.

Blog interaction the past week has been quite entertaining!

Thanks Gary.  Hope it pushes to later.  Well then that means it messes up your night...how about we push it to Sunday or just get rid of it all together?!? This is just a really bad weekend for rain!

Wow!  Has anybody looked at the 162hr GFS forecast?  It's showing 1-2.5 inches of rain with a strong storm predicted to track over central Missouri.  Could this be a severe weather setup Gary?

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/06/fp0_162.shtml

Rain will be great! I have so many plants to water, even a tree wich takes 10 min of waisting most of the water that runs away! Can you add ALL the rainfall forecasts to a link or the end of this weather blog, thanks,
          Byan by Jo Co arprt.

you all are really quiet tonight!

Hey Gary, KC might not have had a blizzard.  But we had  what I call a blizzard 2 times here in the Lake Perry area.  What I call a blizzard may be different from the correct meteorological definition.  To me its a blizzard if the wind is above 20 and visibility drops below 100'.  We had that twice in broad daylight lasting well over a half hour each time.  But then again we got more snow than KC just like the Ozarks.  You and the LRC were generally right.  It did snow heavily within 50 miles of KC everytime you predicted a good snow storm.  In my books you pegged it right.  But I have to tell you, I for one don't like snow.  If I did I would move to North Dakota or Montana.  So if you don't mind jump into that contest and tell us what to expect for the Fourth of July.

Gary,

Has Powercast changed at all?

Jacob... that map is for 1 week from today.    Its a loooong way away to be trying to figure out who gets the severe weather.

I don't know about the rain tonight - that T-Storm activity over central Kansas is sure sagging south.

radman22...I know its far away, and I know that it will not look like that for long, I just thought it was interesting.

Glad I got the lawn mowed if it is going to rain...

and I thought the forecast contest was open, not just scott and notes

If summer is a wildcard in the LRC, does that mean the LRC only exists in fall, winter and spring?

Whats wrong with ESP...it's all a mess.  Clear air mode?

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We were testing some items on ESP. Thanks for letting us know.

Gary

Greg...NO! The LRC sets up between October 1st and November 10th and continues to cycle through the following summer.  Then a new cycle sets up the following fall.

lots of people dont get the credit they deserve but thats life

twister11,

what are you talking about??

Gary,

My prediction for the 4th of July is 92 and humid with a few pop up thunderstorms around the region.

I'm no expert at long range predictions but I feel fairly safe about this.. HAHA

jbtornado,

I was going to make the exact same forecast for July 4th.  I was going to say 95, but still pretty close.  July 4th is always hot and humid.  I think that right now I'd be more impressed with someone predicting Memorial Day's weather than I would Independence day.  Late May has to be harder to predict than the Dog days of Summer.

July 4th we will see 91 degrees with a humidty of about 88.  There will be very low wind speeds around 5mph or less, and it will be sunny with no clouds.  A great day to shoot off fireworks or go see a display on your own.




-Kansas Patriot

86 with evening thunderstorms for the 4th of July!!!!!!

KansasPatriot:   That would be one hot day!!!   It is almost impossible to get that high of a humidity with 91 degrees.    The heat index would be 120

So I still dont get Channel 41, since we still dont have satellite after the last storm knocked it out.  What is the forecast for tomorrow?

well, im not a weather wiz radman...i had no idea it would be like that!  

its just a guess like many others, what is your prediction?

July 4 - showers all day - 72

Emmy:   Rain in the morning turning into a nice day with sun and some wind.

KansasPatriot:   Hot and Sunny for July 4th  :)

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I remember last year July 4 was pretty nice until about 3pm then strong thunderstorms formed.  Some t-storm warnings that day. 

Jeremy

GUARANTEED Joe Namath style July 4th forecast:

Between 7 am and 8pm it will be light.  After 8pm the chance for darkness will increase to 100% after 10 pm, maybe even as early as 930.  I invite you all to quote me on this come July 4th!  Sorry, I couldn't resist.  

Your forecast for next Thursday makes me physically sick. I'm trying to stay positive, that would be an awesome forecast if it were January!  I'll hope at this point that the Sun angle can work its magic to bump that up 10 degrees or so...  I won't count on it though, LOL!      

Twister has a great point.  It is extremely difficult to predict a day out (getting the temperature exactly right, precip in the right general range, etc).  There is a lot of stuff going on in the atmosphere as it is ever-changing. Getting as close as we mere humans do to prognosticating it all is a feat IMO. The LRC will be instrumental to getting the eventual winner of this contest close, but it will take some serious luck to hit the exacts from this far out. Shoot, I don't trust ANY model greater than 3 days out. I feel like Jack Arute in the pregame. There will be some that invest heavily in the LRC, there will be some that invest in climatology, and there will be some that invest in things such as la nina, etc to guide their predictions for the 4th of July. Who will win? Back to Brent Musberger in the box... Notes and Scott is the Championship game.  Having Gary's prediction versus both of these formidable players, college football needs to pay attention to, I liken it to a playoff system as it were!  I know there are a lot of Boise State players out there too, so beware!  LOL!          

I accidentally put this on the last post, but the high wind warning thing near Topeka looks interesting, looks like a dry punch heading for K.C., I wonder if it is not a type of "macroburst" situation.  right now some very light rain here in St. Joe.

i'll post my 2 cents about the forth of July, Sure why not...I think temps have a good potential to be in the high 70s and Low 80s with Rain around the area, Severe Weather, Possible in Late Evening/overnight. That's my thought based on the LRC. but then again this day I'm forecasting could happen on either side of the 4th ya never know. I have no models to back this up or any information whatsoever just based on the fact that around May 1-2 we had the severe weather and it's been cooler than average so that's why I'm making that forecast.

just north of a quarter of an inch in st jo. been raining lightly since 4:15. soggy dog walking this morning.