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NBC Action Weather Blog

Not your typical May weekend forecast

Happy Friday NBC Action Weather Bloggers,

We will be tracking a very strong developing storm on our newscasts through the weekend.  Don't forget our weekend morning newscasts that begin at 8 AM on NBC Action News.  And, before I go into this fascinating May weather pattern, I just want to thank all of the brave Kansas Citians who had their heads shaved yesterday helping the American Cancer Societies Hope Lodge, including young 8 year old Jacob.  Here is the link to see the video: 

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/mediacenter/local.aspx?videoId=353064@kshb.dayport.com

Now, onto  our weather.  As we move into mid-May there is a growing interest into this years LRC pattern that refuses to allow it to warm up.  When we issued the winter forecast back in November I talked about Storm Track #2.  We wondered if it would be the dominant feature.  But, we didn't know that it would dominate the entire pattern until around December.  From December on, viewers, friends, co-workers, have been asking me is it ever going to warm up.  And, I have had an immediate answer each time of, "NO".  This pattern refuses to allow a long term warming trend set up.  We will still have some warm-ups, but they have always been brief so far.  Only two days of near 80 degrees all year, thus far, with none in the forecast.

Storm Track #2 features a "long term" longwave trough that repeats over and over again at regularly scheduled periods as indicated in this years LRC pattern.  Storm Track #2 wants you to see its eyes this weekend.  Look below at the two maps:

This first map, above, is the forecast for Saturday afternoon.  A very strong storm is developing as it drops into the "long term" longwave trough position just east of us.  This longwave trough is responsible for most of the eastern tornadoes and southern Missouri flooding this season.  As this storm develops, look how it just explodes as it moves into the trough position on the map below:

And, as a result, we have a good chance of a brief period of rain on Saturday afternoon, and then a windy, cold May day on Sunday as you can see on the surface map below:

We will be all over this on our weathercasts today and tonight, and through the weekend.  Please try to watch.  We will put our new Powercast (HD high resolution forecast model) to work this weekend.

Gary

Published Friday, May 09, 2008 9:36 AM by glezak

Comments

 

RDub said:

Grrr, I wait until mid-May to go to my first Royals game of the year...and it's STILL going to be cold!

*******************

Hopefully you are going tonight...Saturday there's a chances the showers mess with the game.

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 9:45 AM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

So it looks good for me on Sat. night when my hubby and I go out to dinner to celebrate our anniversary but I better 'batton down the hatches' Sunday morning.

Thanks, Gary.
Lorie in Joplin
May 9, 2008 9:48 AM
 

rymac said:

gary,
i don't think all of your blog showed up... i think the maps are "over" your thoughts on this weekend.
ryan
May 9, 2008 9:49 AM
 

rymac said:

ok, it just fixed its self...ryan

***************

Ryan,

Often times when we work on blogs we post several times along the way to get parts of the blog out.  People always ask us for new information and sometimes a new blog may take an hour to write.  So many times we post a few times along the way to get some new information out.

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 9:50 AM
 

FairWeather007 said:

What a weekend to bring home a new puppy!!! I was hoping to be able to take him out more, instead, I'll probably be having to hose him down from the mud! :)

*******************

It won't rain all day Saturday...and probably not until afternoon in spots.  Also, Sunday looks o.k. right now.  Have fund with the pet!

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 9:51 AM
 

mamaof3girls said:

I am so sick of the cooler weather...I have held off on planting my flowers and now I am wondering if I should not plant this Sunday either?? Ugh!! I am sure this cold streak is gonna continue clear through Memorial Day weekend, so much for sprinklers and swimming suits. Oh well what can ya do...it is mother nature we are talking about. Have a great weekend everyone.
Monica

*****************

Monica,

Right now Sunday looks dry.  It will be cooler than average, but there should be some sun.  Highs probably in the 60s.  The cool weather is getting old, but outside of breaks for a day or two it seems like it will keep returning in the near future.

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 10:13 AM
 

Scott said:

Thank you kindly for the maps.  Its a shame you cant get the maps back on the archieved blogs when the server was acting up.

***************

I hear ya!

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 10:43 AM
 

davidmcg said:

I made a mistake earlier.  The rainfall in McLouth was 1.59", not 0.59",
May 9, 2008 10:59 AM
 

RDub said:

Actually, I'm going to the K Sunday. So it should be pretty cold for a Sunday afternoon game...

*****************

Nothing like that Royals/Twins game the first weekend of the season that I went to when it was 40 at first pitch!

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 11:03 AM
 

Jaygirl said:

Gary,

So does this look like a repeat of the pattern for the Springfield area this weekend?  i.e. possible severe weather?  Thanks!

*********************

Springfield is in a slight risk...but it appears the greatest threat will be just south and southeast of there where the moderate risk is in place.

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 11:08 AM
 

RDub said:

Yeah, it will probably be 50 at first pitch instead of 40....
May 9, 2008 11:14 AM
 

davidmcg said:

Effingham KS had 1.47 inches.
May 9, 2008 11:15 AM
 

soulwinnerrj said:

Hey guys! Think positive for the game tonight! By game time, the sun should be out and in the mid-60s.


I was at the Home Opener, AND the Billy Butler jersey give-away night, an both times the temps were either in the low 40s, or the upper 30s. So tonights game is going to seem like a walk in the park.


Besides, if you let the weather deter you from attending a game, how much of a true fan are you? LoL, I am only teasing. If it was going to pour for the entire night, I probably wouldn't go either. But a little cold and/or mist? That doesn't bother me.


RJ in LV

******************

RJ,

I think you will be okay tonight outside of the cool weather.  I was at the Butler jersey giveaway game too.  Jersey's were gone when I arrived 1 hour before the game, but I was happy that the Twins won:)

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 11:27 AM
 

hblue1977 said:

Ok, so I'm having a party Saturday night outside...who thinks I should cancel?  I've put a ton of work into this...live band, Hooters is catering the food so I really don't want to cancel, but I can't decide...any advice is GREATLY appreciated.  

**************

Really a tough call.  The rain is not guaranteed to hit everywhere...but it is going to turn pretty cool during the evening and breezy.  Right now we have a rain chance at 70%...doesn't look severe...but anything wet isn't good news either.  I would watch Gary 5 & 6pm as there will be another couple runs of Powercast available for him to look at.

Jeremy 

May 9, 2008 11:39 AM
 

hblue1977 said:

By the way, I live in KC KS, about 10 minutes from the Speedway.  
May 9, 2008 11:43 AM
 

soulwinnerrj said:

The Twins! I know that's your old area, but man.... the re-birth of Lican Hernandez in the AL, no less. Even without Johan, they are STILL hard to beat.

If no one (ie., Indians or Tigers) is going to take control in this division, a grind-it-out type year might get it done! Say, 85-90 wins is all you might need! That is, unless a team suddenly becomes dominant. Either way, I wish the Royals had a couple of "sticks" in that line-up about now.... we have the pitching! We just need the offense.

RJ

*****************

The Twins have surprised me...not sure how long this will continue.  I think Gomez is a very adequate replacement for Hunter.

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 11:46 AM
 

soulwinnerrj said:

Gomez is definitely MORE than adequate, I believe. That guy has 5-tool potential. I don't know if he will put up Carlos Beltran type numbers over his career, but he has more speed than Beltran ever had. He's quite fun to watch. Once he gets over his few "rookie mistakes" that all rookies make, he should be an anchor out in Center, just as Torri was.

***************

Speaking of my teams...I had a chance to get a picture with Jared Allen last weekend.  I'll try to load that in and post it to the blog this weekend.  Time to talk some weather...

Jeremy


May 9, 2008 12:12 PM
 

RDub said:

Hblue--don't cancel. Rent a tent, or a couple of tents maybe, but don't cancel.

RJ--I'll definitely be there Sunday no matter how cold...but I will probably wish it was 20 degrees warmer.
May 9, 2008 12:43 PM
 

angela77 said:


Tomorrow is my son, Alex's 1st birthday party.  And yes, it's at a park.  We are having it between 1 and 4pm.  Do I need to make a plan B?

Thanks,
Angela

****************

Always have a plan 'B'.  The chances of rain go up the later you get into your party.

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 12:45 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

MAN, Sunday morning does still look windy, dare I say... wind chill values?
Oh, and something that I just find interesting, the models don't really have the 540 hight line dropping south of us, but at the 850mbar level it still has a pocket of -3 degree celsius air dropping through(at least on the NAM), just goes to show how intense a cold punch it is!!

*******************

Nick,

Sunday morning does look...dare I say...a little 'blustery'.

Jeremy

May 9, 2008 12:54 PM
 

KCFarrisFamily said:

Monica - Its actually better for your flowers if you go ahead and plant them.  They wont suffer from heat stress and they can get better esablished before it does get hot.  Gardens should be beautiful this year around KC with this slow warm up.  Have you noticed how long the redbuds have kept their blooms this year? My husband and I are also having a hard time getting into the "gardening spirit" and we both have degrees in horticulture so our life is full of plants!

Carrie
May 9, 2008 1:04 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Carrie...thanks for the info. I will go ahead and plant them Sunday. They will be in pots so even if it does get frosty again I can just pull them into the garage. I LOVED my redbuds this year. We have 5 red bud trees and they looked awesome for about 2 1/2 to 3 weeks. It was a treat I must say. My lilac bush look's good too. I am excited cause my iris's should bloom any day now...my hope is when I get off work Monther's Day monring they will have bloomed over night just for me too see when I get home. It does not take much to please me huh? LOL!!
Monica
May 9, 2008 1:21 PM
 

RDub said:

Flowers will be fine. I am worried about all the food crops, from big corn farms all the way down to backyard tomatoes. They are all going to be behind schedule this year.
May 9, 2008 1:30 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I must say, in my time in Kansas this has got to be the worst spring I can recall here. I wait all year for warm and it is fleeting when we get it. I don't think we'll see 90's at all this summer based on the cool weather pattern so far.
May 9, 2008 1:34 PM
 

simplykristi said:

It was raining when we went to Mom's appt. this morning.  It was quite appropriate for the mood that we were in afterwards.  Lightning does strike twice.  

She definitely has a spot on her left lung under her shoulder. She also has one enlarged lymph node. Looks like the liver is clear. I asked the pulmonary doc to show me the CT scan and she did. Mom will have a bronchscopy on Tues. and a PET scan on Wed. We should have all her results later next week.

I really don't know what to think anymore.

Kristi.... trying to be strong
May 9, 2008 1:53 PM
 

angvic00 said:

Good luck planting flowers this weekend.  I planted mine a few weekends ago when it was warm.  Big mistake!  Some of them didn't take too well to the cold that snuck up on us.  I planted a rhodedendrum (sorry if I misspelled this one!) last summer and a rose bush and both have sections that died off due to the cold nights.  But...my lawn looks great:)
May 9, 2008 1:57 PM
 

Mammatus said:

Its looking like Tuesday May 13th could be interesting according to the current models.  Its 4.5 days out but it looks like a pretty powerful storm is heading into the plains with plenty of dynamics and moisture available. Any thoughts on the severe potential on that day.
May 9, 2008 2:11 PM
 

KCFarrisFamily said:

RDub - I don't know it could go either way.  As we get into the growing season, understanding we will still be dealing with this years LRC, it could mean we have just the right amount of rainfall during our hottest/dryest part of summer to yield bumper crops.  But too much rain will keep/has kept the farmers from planting/harvesting so I see your point.  I don't think things are really "behind" schedule to much yet here in KC as far as backyard gardens go.   The suggested last frost date for our zone is Mothers Day.  Look at what happened last year to all those that "jumped the gun".  Tomatoes and other warm weather crops and flowers should not even be in the ground until our suggested "last frost date" passes.  The trees and all have been able to come out of dormancy slowly and without stress and are so beautiful this year because of it (we should have a very good apple crop this year!).  As long as we start to see more sun then clouds when our backyard gardens set I think we will be OK.  But thats why weather is so much fun to follow...you just never know (yes, even with the LRC :) )  and it keeps you guessing!  

Thats my two cents but its probably not even worth that much!
May 9, 2008 2:11 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Everyone take a moment and say a prayer for Kristi and her family.....
May 9, 2008 2:11 PM
 

JFTtown said:

JeriCorrell,

I completely agree about the spring so far, it's been horrible.  I am pretty bummed about this pattern, while others are fascinated. You are right about the summer, too.  At this rate hitting 90 will be front page news.  I'm just praying that August and September will give us warm weather lovers a little bit of salvation before we get stuck back in the freezer.  
May 9, 2008 2:34 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

I totally agree bewild.
Kristi  Prayers and best wishes from us here in KCK

Any hints on what May 18th is going to look like?  My middle son turns 10 that day..and since his birthday is "usually" warm we have his birthday party at a local park..

Stacy N the gang
May 9, 2008 2:39 PM
 

KCFarrisFamily said:

5kckmartins -
Just taking a guess but cloudy, not above 68, and a chance of rain???????? :)
May 9, 2008 2:46 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

lol  I wouldn't be surprised.
May 9, 2008 2:50 PM
 

simplykristi said:

My oldest niece is getting married on Sat., June 14th.  Do I want to know what the weather will be?  Who knows? :)  This weather is sooo crazy this spring with all the cool temps.

Kristi
May 9, 2008 2:55 PM
 

RDub said:

Farris--last year's bad freeze happened in early April. No one in their right mind would put tomatoes in the ground that early. But May is usually warm enough to plant tomatoes. Here it is Mother's Day and the ground is cold and wet and if you put tomatoes in the ground this weekend, they won't like it.

And the farmers are definitely behind schedule this year. USDA stats show that. Only 23 percent of the Mo corn crop has been planted. The average for this time of year is 76%. KS is not as far behind but is still behind. And Mn and Wi farmers have planted less than 10% of the crop.
May 9, 2008 3:10 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

Twins fan huh Jeremy? GO SOX!!!!
My son has a baseball game tommorrow at 2, do you think we will be able to get it in?
May 9, 2008 3:25 PM
 

kristy said:

Kristi, I've been thinking about you and your family alot.  I will continue to pray!!!!!  Kristy
May 9, 2008 3:26 PM
 

Hamons Custom Landscaping said:

My only fear with this spring si if we suudenly get warm that many of the annuals people plant have not rooted in much -- depending on the plants.  

Impatiens for example -- have just kind of sat in the ground because they need soil temps up into the 60's.  Which they are not consistenly at.  If we suddenly hit normal temps once June gets here -- They will not have rooted much and will struggle more than normal.  

Other plants though have loved these temps.  If you planted pansies this year -- they are doing great and they may have rooted enough to survive the whole summer.

I keep records of soil temperatures and we are currently about 3 weeksbehind normal right now and 6 weeks behind where we were last year - soil temp wise.  
May 9, 2008 3:32 PM
 

Tony Baker said:

.53" of rain two miles south of Reno. The Morel mushrooms have been out since Tuesday and the pickings are GOOD. Keep an eye on the North-facing side of creek bottoms in the forrest. No garden yet. Tilling mud is no fun. Water temps in area lakes are very near Crappie time. Mothers Day is the "typical" first day for that kind of fishing but it is behind schedule this year.
May 9, 2008 3:33 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

Prayers and warm thoughts to you and your family Kristi.  Enjoy your mothers day weekend and make it quiet and special.

Tony - crappie are REALLY biting at Smithville Lake - my boys have been catching their limit every day they have gone in the last couple weeks.  :)  

I've planted all of my pots and some of my border flowers, but am waiting until next week for tomatoes unless someone has any good pointers for those going in now.  My garden area is so muddy I don't know if I could plant them correctly or not.  My rhubarb and asparagus look great though!!!
May 9, 2008 4:17 PM
 

Scott said:

Mammatus,

Patience, the GFS is struggling a bit with the vorticity stream and subsequent surface lows due to height falls.

I am looking for a final model answer as to where the primary surface low sets up.  if in the southern stream, no worries.  If in the northern stream, more to watch.

Wait another day or two to start getting other mid range models to weigh in.  I caught the potential two or so days ago, and it fits into my thinking of something to watch a bit.  

We will just have to see still
May 9, 2008 4:17 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Hey, off the subject, but I posted yesterday that I have a large corner computer table if anyone wants to take it. It won't fit into my new place, Just PM me.
May 9, 2008 5:28 PM
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