Happy Friday NBC Action Weather Bloggers,
We will be tracking a very strong developing storm on our newscasts through the weekend. Don't forget our weekend morning newscasts that begin at 8 AM on NBC Action News. And, before I go into this fascinating May weather pattern, I just want to thank all of the brave Kansas Citians who had their heads shaved yesterday helping the American Cancer Societies Hope Lodge, including young 8 year old Jacob. Here is the link to see the video:
http://www.nbcactionnews.com/mediacenter/local.aspx?videoId=353064@kshb.dayport.com
Now, onto our weather. As we move into mid-May there is a growing interest into this years LRC pattern that refuses to allow it to warm up. When we issued the winter forecast back in November I talked about Storm Track #2. We wondered if it would be the dominant feature. But, we didn't know that it would dominate the entire pattern until around December. From December on, viewers, friends, co-workers, have been asking me is it ever going to warm up. And, I have had an immediate answer each time of, "NO". This pattern refuses to allow a long term warming trend set up. We will still have some warm-ups, but they have always been brief so far. Only two days of near 80 degrees all year, thus far, with none in the forecast.
Storm Track #2 features a "long term" longwave trough that repeats over and over again at regularly scheduled periods as indicated in this years LRC pattern. Storm Track #2 wants you to see its eyes this weekend. Look below at the two maps:

This first map, above, is the forecast for Saturday afternoon. A very strong storm is developing as it drops into the "long term" longwave trough position just east of us. This longwave trough is responsible for most of the eastern tornadoes and southern Missouri flooding this season. As this storm develops, look how it just explodes as it moves into the trough position on the map below:

And, as a result, we have a good chance of a brief period of rain on Saturday afternoon, and then a windy, cold May day on Sunday as you can see on the surface map below:

We will be all over this on our weathercasts today and tonight, and through the weekend. Please try to watch. We will put our new Powercast (HD high resolution forecast model) to work this weekend.
Gary