3:15 PM update: The surface low has continued developing and sagging south. It is forming west of Chanute Kansas, and this should keep the the tornado threat down near the Oklahoma and Arkansas borders. We will likely see a few showers and thunderstorms form north of the low in our viewing area, but the main threat will be some hail.
Previous entry below:
Good afternoon bloggers,
A tornado watch has been issued for the southern half of our viewing area. There is very little immediate threat as the thunderstorms that formed this morning have now moved off to the east with a wave aloft. As we move through the afternoon, as discussed the past two days, a storm is going to begin rapidly developing and intensifying. We are in the developing area which makes it quite tricky. Thunderstorms will likely form this afternoon and then rapidly shift east and northeast this evening. By 9 PM the threat will have moved well off to the north and east. But, we will have to watch this situation closely between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight as the conditions come together for possible supercell thunderstorms. Large hail will be the main threat, especially for the elevated thunderstorms in the cooler air. The tornado threat is highest way down south near the Oklahoma and Arkansas borders.
Here is the 1 PM surface map below:
Warm moist air is being pulled into the storm as it is just now coming together this afternoon. Will it be enough to trigger the big thunderstorms? Yes, but when will they form? As I said above, the best chance of them forming is between 4 PM and 8 PM tonight. Let's watch the surface low as it may sag southeast along the warm front as it will be affected by the much warmer air mass to the south.
Our newscast is on at 6 PM. So, watch NBC Action News at 6 PM as we track these developments. If severe weather threatens, then you know we will be there for you. Have a great afternoon, and stay with NBC Action News, we'll keep you advised.
Gary