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Gary and Weather Team,

Do you think with the combination of the this years LRC and with the cooler spring that the severe weather season for KC could last longer this year maybe even till the end of June or first part of July? It would appear that this will be the case as we haven't experienced the warmer temps yet that we would normally be experiencing by now. Is this cooler spring broken any records for least amount of days at 80 or above?

Jeff  

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Jeff,

The average jet stream position shifts way north by mid-June.  After mid-June, there is sometimes a lot of MCS activity with severe weather, but the tornado threat almost always goes way down by the first day of summer.  Occasionally there is a signficant severe weather set-up during the summer, however, but severe weather season almost always closes up for us, regardless of what weather pattern we are in during the second half of June.

Gary

I see Supercells in our future.

------------------

I am sure we will have some in the next few weeks, but this week there is  only one chance, and it is late Tuesday afternoon or evening.  It is just a slight risk.

Gary

Hey Gary ~
I'm confused. I'm down here in the SW part of Joplin and was watching Sat. tornado on my laptop (was taking cover in hallway). Anyways, they said that a tornado was spotted in just west of Baxter Springs KS moving east. After reading Sean's blog and looking at the link you provided it looks like at some point it changed course. So was there one big super cell that split and then headed SE. I don't see how a tornado in Baxter Springs that was heading east ended up hitting Picher, OK. Were there two or ..... I'm confused. Thanks.
Lorie

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Lorie,

I haven't analyzed it in detail yet, but it appeared to be one supercell that developed near the Kansas/Oklahoma border.  It then turned right and headed east southeast.  The tornado may have been on a very long track before lifting.  But, it definitely turned southeast.

Gary

Thanks Gary. I had originally thought it was two. Now I understand the importance of tornado watches for large areas. Things can change very quickly. I local wasn't keeping up with the changes.

Tues has a nice hint to watch to see what will happen.  The forecast soundings want to bring cloud cover in on Tues early around 12z, based on the RH values.

That will make it tough to get convective at the surface.  If..if, we see sunshine into the afternoon, then I will have much more interest.  The GFS sounding wants to make the convective temps into the 80s to pop the cap/cloud cover, and because of the progged temps, it doesn't look like it makes it.

I don't think moisture will be a problem again this time.  It is dry at the 700mb level, but well saturated from 850 down to the surface.

Not overly exciting for this area, though I did see on the more recent models - our friend the surface low - returning to the area.  Previous runs had dropped it..but it is back.

We will see...

Gary, based on the LRC longwave and the subsequent trough axis, as the June time jet position sets up, I would not be surprised with the strength of the southern jet we have seen this year, the shallow shelf of cold air persistant since December, and the increase of seasonal moisture, to see our severe season extend a bit this year.

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Scott,

I highly doubt it.  And, I am talking about tornado threat.  As discussed in another comment, the average strength of the jet stream is too weak for anything consistent when it comes to tornadoes this far south after around June 15th or 20th.  One more serious threat could happen, and MCS activity could still develop and affect us, but the ingredients for anything significant become much more difficult to come together after the next few weeks go by, regardless of the LRC that is in place.  This is how I feel right now.  This doesn't mean we won't have some wild lines of thunderstorms. 

Gary

Hi Gary!!

Congrats on the money raised to help Wayside Waifs!!  That's FANTASTIC!!!!!  Hey, did you ever see my email about the Pet Telethon story??  I have two new kitties now!  If you didn't see it I'll send it again, it's a great story about FATE.

Thanks for all you do Gary.  Not just your enthusiasm for the weather but for helping so many animals that need loving homes...you are just the best!

Shelly

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Shelly,

Send it again.  If I don't respond to your email, you should always send it again just to give me a better chance of seeing it.  It gets overwhelming at times.  Send it around mid afternoon and this gives me the best chance of seeing it.

Gary

Didn't get online Sunday but read Hail's feeling that the severe weather season is in the toilet. I don't see how he can say that given the unfortunate deaths and damage all around us. Now unless he means he wants it right here in JoCo, Wyco, which even I don't want, then all he has to do to get in a good chase is get in the car and drive south.
I have wanted to go every time Sean has sent an alert or called but with HAVING to move it is hard right now. He certainly has not seemed to have a shortage of chases, although our first one was April 27th last year and this year started just a bit later. I was chomping at the bit that I didn't go this past weekend but divorce has a way of gouging one's finances.
Anyway, I just don't see that the severe weather season is over Hail, you just gotta go where the storms are, they are all over the place, and luckily not so much in our own back yard.

Looking good Gary!  I love what you do for the animals.  I am a volunteer for pit bull rescue myself.  Now here comes a dumb question because I am still learning about weather and trying to understand everything--this severe weather season already seems much more active than normal.  I'm in Belton and don't think I have heard the tornado sirens go off for years until a few weeks ago.  Will this continue to be the trend?

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It all depends on the weather pattern. This season has been way above average for tornadoes from Missouri eastward. And, this shouldn't be a surprise as the LRC picks out the "long term" longwave trough perfectly, and all of this activity falls right into place. Back to the west it has not been as active. 

It hopefully isn't a trend, as it just depends on each years weather pattern.

Gary

Bring on more storms!!

Tues may be healthy.  Look at the Cravens Sig/Sev index.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f042&startdate=2008051203&field=SREF_prob_cbsigsvr_40000__



In opening this, hover over each run at the bottom from left to right.  This indicates the model changes in past runs for the same time period.  If you notice, the first run on the bottom left did not have much for this area.

If you hover to the next few time periods of previous runs, you see the models correct and move the potential further north with each run.

Everything I see on the SREF and GFS looks to me like 2100Z-0000Z is about the timeframe to watch on Tues

Here is the supercell composite >6

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f042&startdate=2008051203&field=SREF_prob_supercomp_6__

The 12Z NAM brings low pressure right over KC.  While not defined on the 1000/500 as a surface low, I am going to assume it with a pressure of 1004mb.

Gotta watch for dewpoints and cloud cover...

I say the highest risk is again in eastern Oklahoma and on into extreme SW Missouri.  As far as KC goes a slight risk SE of a Ottawa/Lawrence/Belton line.  But I am far below amateur status.  Its just what I see looking at all the forecast maps.  I think there will be too much cloud cover and not enough moisture to really get any convection in our vicinity.  We'll see tomorrow.  The real classic set-up of weather patterns we usually see from Emporia to Manhatten just aren't developing for us.  Lucky us, but when it misses us it always gets somebody else.  Its tornado alley people, you have to be aware of the weather and your surroundings.  Stay away and out of cars.  Seek shelter.  A ditch is better than a car.  If you run from a tornado always run perpendicular, never east or south.

Well..here goes for the forecast from Jun 29th – July 5th.  Yes, it’s a bit early, but my first take is usually the best, so I won’t give myself extra time to mess it up any further.  LOL

Here is the part that won’t be counted in the forecast, but is what I am thinking.  I am still a believer in the cycle being closer to 54 than 50.  So, based on that I am using that model.  

What is interesting is that it would be this past week that would align with this forecast time period.  So, as we all know based on the last week, this could be challenging.  [Gary will disagree - which is why he can submit his own forecast.  LOL]

I factored in other past data from the surface and upper air in past cycles.  

The trend shows warming temps early/mid week, yielding to a frontal passage with rain with a nice cool down late in the forecast period.  I believe with the frontal passage, many areas may see more than half an inch of rain..

So – here is the official forecast per the contest.

June 29th
High Temp – 91  Low Temp – 69  Precip – NONE

June 30th
High Temp – 88  Low Temp – 68  Precip – NONE

July 1st
High Temp – 86  Low Temp – 68  Precip – NONE

July 2nd
High Temp – 84  Low Temp – 67 Precip – NONE

July 3rd
High Temp – 83  Low Temp – 69  Precip - .60 in.
 
July 4th
High Temp -  82  Low Temp – 62  Precip - .23 in.

July 5th
High Temp -  89  Low Temp – 68  Precip - NONE

If we include POPs, then the 2nd would be 30%, the 3rd would be 60% and the 4th would be 40%.

Whew…all done, now I can go back to day to day stuff…LOL

looks like the new outlook from the spc for tomorrow has shifted a bit more west than previous outlook.

Whew...I just checked in and was surprised to see that forecast by Scott...good stuff.  Yes - I think adding PoPs is a good idea - something I had spaced off earlier.

I'll try to get mine on here in the next few days.

I see your temps are fairly average - not much in the way of significant anomalies - probably the similar to what mine will be.

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Is today your guys deadline for this forecast, I guess it is.  I will try to get mine on here later.

Gary

TORNADO THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT GREATER OVER KS/MO PORTION OF OUTLOOK WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER.  PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION BECOME BETTER DEFINED.

What does this mean?  Does this mean us?

jacob, it just means that the upper air parameters are very good.  Sheer is a main component [amongst others] to tornado genesis and well as severe storms.

As mentioned in my post above, moisture and per the SPC capping will be the main focus.

A couple of my friends are going down to the lake...  I will call them later to give them a heads up about possible severe weather tomorrow.  I know my friend has a weather radio down there and she tries to listen to it at least once a day.

I have sooo much to do with my parents this week.  My dad goes to the oncologist on Thurs.  If he had stayed in the hospital, Dad could have started chemo today.  Now we have an appt. with the oncologist to discuss the chemo on Thurs.

Kristi

Hey Gary,
Well we chatted about the LRC over the weekend, and of course the tornadoes in my viewing area.  I got to see the entire path of the major tornado.  Quick break down, a couple of supercells blew over Montgomery Co KS,  and rolled east.  They became tornadic around Chetopa KS.  The far southern cell was the most intense and became a right mover and sank to the SE.  This tornado was on the ground for over a 3 county track.  The damage in terrible, much like what we saw on May 4th of 2003.  So not good news down here.  I will add a link of the view from a helicopter plus the track of the tornado for you.
http://www.koamtv.com/Global/category.asp?C=135504
You will see the video of aerial coverage plus the track

Doug Heady
Chief Meteorologist

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Doug,

Thanks!  I will look at this later and will give you a call.

Gary

Well Scott I've copied and pasted your forecast and I'm interested what others, like Notes and Gary think will happen.  What is the location of this forecast?  I will say I appreciate that you're not vague, since you even went out on a limb providing detailed precip info.

Now my real question is when it will hit 100 degrees this summer?  Heck maybe it won't even happen at this rate.

I think we set 5/15 as the deadline for our forecast for the week of Independence Day...(correct me if I'm mistaken, Scott!).  

I will also add PoPs to my forecast...

I do think we'll hit 100 at least once this summer...It seems rare that a cold anomaly such as the one we've experienced recently will last through 3-4 months.

Oh - and our verification point is KMCI.

Bloggers, I spent very little time on this, but to be fair, I am still basing it on the LRC, in it's weakened July state, and issuing it today.  Overall, near average temperatures and above average precipitation for this contest week.

June 29th:  Partly cloudy, scattered thunderstorms.  High:  87 Low: 67  0.35"
June 30th:  Scattered heavy thunderstorms.  High:  79  Low:  64  1.02"
July 1st:  A nice day.  High:  86  Low:  67
July 2nd:  Partly cloudy.  High: 89  Low:  69
July 3rd:  Hot & humid. Night T-Storms.  High:  91  Low:  70   .33"
July 4th:  Warm.  High:  86  Low: 64
July 5th:  Scattered T-Storms.  High:  84  Low 63  1.25"
July 6th:  SUnny and cooler.  High: 82  Low:  62

The game is on!

Gary

Thank you Doug for clearing up the confusion. I sure wish you had been on the air when all of this was happening. The other guy just wasn't clear about what was going on.

Today is perfect weather...I love it. My daughter, Ella,  is celebrating her 7th Birthday tonight, it will be nice for grilling and all. I kinda feel with all this death and distruction from tornadoes, earthquakes, cyclones and past flooding that it has to be a historic year. I sit here and read and watch TV and it can be a bit overwelming for an adult let alone a child who might see it all. A child see's this and they may think the world is coming to an end. Ugh!!! Mother nature has been busy this year with all that has happened. It is scary and forces you to count your blessings if you have manage to avoid all of it so far. I feel for all the people affected and pray daily for them.
Monica
Pleasanton, KS

We did set a 5/15 deadline, but I was ready early.  Gary apparently can't wait to get into this..but Notes, yes..you have until midnight 5/15 as we agreed.

Gary, while your day descriptions are nice..they don't count in the final forecast.  

Please add POPs to your forecast.

Interesting that you would have have a quarter of the average rainfall of June happening in one day.

I can see Gary went 50 days...LOL

If this storm and associated cold front slows down a bit, we may see some interesting weather tomorrow evening. 2-3 hours slower could make all the difference. It sure looks like we will have plenty of moisture, maybe even more than the last severe episode a couple weeks ago. I would say if we see Supercells form again, they may have quite a bit more energy to work with. Im wondering if we will have any chance of the surface low over Oklahoma shifting further north, if so, I would have to think we would be in a more favorable position for rotating storms. Any thoughts? I would hope that southwestern Missouri doesn't get it again but it looks to be more favorable closer to us. Its been an interesting severe weather season.

Its funny to see this evolve.  Because Gary is going 50 day and I am on 54 day, Gary's first three days are my last three.  

For the days that we both had in common, its funny to see the same trend of analysis...

Mammutus,

Here is a potential surface low you are looking for....

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/nam/12/images/nam_sl8_036l.gif

Draw out the boundaries on this map..it fits to have a surface low where it shows the 1004mb, and would relate to the SPC discussion piece noted above...

"...OVER KS/MO PORTION OF OUTLOOK WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER..."

will a typical july week chance of thunderstorms and humidity !!!! :)

"Interesting that you would have have a quarter of the average rainfall of June happening in one day."

But that's not uncommon at all, really. Look what happened at the end of last June...

so will we likely be upgraded to a moderate risk as SPC suggests if we gain enough instability?

That looks pretty interesting. If you remember the last system that came thru on May 1st, there were some pretty intense Tornadic Supercells just northeast of the surface low over Northeast Nebraska into southwest South Dakota. The only difference is that the upper level low is hanging back in the New mexico area. Looks like the 500mb jet is pretty strong over our area between 2100-00z. It sure seems like most of these systems tend to slow down and the Spc is inching the Severe threat area further west and north. I guess we shall see what the cloud cover does tomorrow. If we hit 80 and this slows down, we should see some rapid development late tomorrow afternoon. We will see what the next models depict. I would bet a slower solution will come out with the 1004 Mb low a bit further west which would track it to the St joe area by 0000Z.

Rdub, I didn't say uncommon..I said interesting.  June is sporatic by nature.  Looking back through each June back to 2003, each is very different in its rain amounts and concentration...

I was just thinking based on THIS year as it has rained nearly every 3-4 days that it was interesting that Gary would have a quarter of the months rain forecast on one day.

Maybe its right, but thought it interesting..thats all.

;-)

On this year's natural disasters, people should have some perspective about it all.  Yes, the death toll from tornadoes so far this year is higher than the "average" death toll to this point in an "average" year, but not to a great degree.  Also, fewer people have died in all the tornadoes so far this year than in some of the great historical tornado events of the past, such as the March 18, 1925 Tri-State Tornado, the April 3, 1974 "Super Outbreak," or the May 11, 1953 tornado that devastated Waco, Texas.  While recent events such as the Myanmar cyclone and Chinese earthquake have taken large tolls of human life, past earthquakes in China and past cyclones in the Bay of Bengal have each caused death tolls well into the hundreds of thousands.  The widespread and sensational coverage natural disasters command in the media help to create the illusion that the frequency and intensity of these events is increasing, which causes some to fear "the end is nigh."  As an earth scientist, I don't believe current natural disasters portend anything except more natural disasters will occur in the future as part of the normal scheme of things.  These local or regional events are nothing compared to truly worldwide cataclysmic events such as a large asteroid or comet impact, supervolcanic eruption, or nearby supernova explosion.  With that said, I do feel sorrow and sympathy for those whose lives have been ended or devastated by natural disasters, and to the living among them it probably does feel like the end of the world.

Ok, it's kinda silly, but here goes my forecast. Since it's a long range forecast I wouldn't be surprised to see the features arriving a couple of days early or late, I mean, it is a month and a half away.

Sun June 29  Cool, nice. High 82 Low 61
Mon June 30  Warmer. High 85 Low 65
Tue July 1  More humid. Widely scattered afternoon t'showers. High 86 Low 69. Chance of rain 20%
Wed July 2. Humid. Widely scattered afternoon t'showers. High 88 Chance of rain 20%
Wed night. Chance of organized overnight t'storms (MCS). Storms could produce heavy rain or brief high winds. Low 72. Chance of rain 40%. Rainfall potentially 1" or more.
Thursday. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Warm and humid. High 85. Low 68.
Friday. Partly cloudy and humid. High 89.
Friday night. Chance of shows and thunderstorms early, chance of MCS overnight. Storms could produce heavy rain or brief high winds. Low 72. Chance of rain 40%. Rainfall potentially 1" or more.
Saturday. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Warm and humid. High 85. Low 68.

Ooops..."showers and thunderstorms" not "shows and thunderstorms".

sedsinkc,

You bring up an interesting point.  While I agree, things need to be put in perspective, I might also add the point of technology.

Look at the dates you list above.  1925, 1953, 1974...

From a pure technology perspective, it can easily be argued that casualties were larger than today due to the lack of warning or means of communication.  

I would think if those events occured in today's time, while still massive damage, I think the casualties would be lower due to the advancements we enjoy in today's time.  Even with that, many still rely on warning notification created in the 1940/50s for civil air defense [sirens].

All the radar/satellites/media coverage in the world won't help sleeping people ignorant or unaware of the risk.

Even as you describe the past earthquakes/tsunamis/volcanos, we find that even in today's world, where these have been happening in underdeveloped countries, that even what we have today cannot help if they cannot afford to have it.

It does seem, however, that there is adequate money available to cover, communicate and politicize the damage instead of warning folks to prevent it.

---just Scott's opinion---

;-)

Scott, you make some excellent points about the state of technology and those who do or do not have access to it.  Your point is well taken about the massive tornado deaths occurring well in the past, and this is most likely a manifestation of better awareness and warning technology today.  Some might say that tornado deaths are generally lower in the modern era, but property damage is greater today.  While I have not done any research, it does seem logical that property damage would be greater today, due to the generally increasing population trends in some tornado-prone areas of the U.S. (but not in some highly tornado-prone areas like the High Plains, thankfully).

I would also argue that trends showing a greater number of tornadoes could be attributed to the same technology.  Where in the past, spotter and eyewitness reports were used, during the middle of the night in rural farmland, likely many tornadoes went unreported.

In today's world, we have a much higher awareness of storm dynamics, more people to chase/spot, far better equipment for the NWS/public, and better communication.  This saves lives, but also undoubtedly will increase the reports of what is going on above....

I think this is an interesting thread that shows a glimpse of other concepts.  Data is very relationship driven.  Taken in a "silo", the data can be massaged to prove a point.  Taken in the full scope, that data could show something completely different.

I think many either lack the ability or desire to look at as many relationships as possible that interact directly or indirectly with the data.  It can make a huge difference in what it really means.  

As the above discussion makes a small point to this idea, imagine it broadened to a larger financial, political or media impact....

Too many people died in their cars in last weekend's storm. We need car radio's to be able to pick up NOAA weather radio. This simple technology couldn't help those people.

Dave

Let's see how good you guys are at forecasting Memorial Day?????

I have a challenge for all of you....  My oldest niece is getting married on Sat., June 14th at 7:00 PM.  What's the weather going to be like?

Kristi

Lets see.

I said Supercells are in our future in the last post.

Now you guys are talking about threats of Tornados and the possibility of a Moderate risk.

"...OVER KS/MO PORTION OF OUTLOOK WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER..."  And

"TORNADO THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT GREATER OVER KS/MO PORTION OF OUTLOOK. PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS EXTENT OF MOISTURE RETURN AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION BECOME BETTER DEFINED. "

As I see It looks like the tide is turning quickly. I checked the SPC Probability and it has KC  Southward at anywhere between 20-40%.  

Yet As I see it im still correct. Supercells will probably form around KC. Thats my guest and its a real good 1
***************** Chfs, Just don't cheer on severe weather tomorrow. I don't think anyone wants severe weather after what happened a couple of weeks ago in Kansas City and also this past weekend to our south. Super cells demand respect. Jeremy

Sorry its 20-30% not 20-40%.

I agree with Dave 100% on having weather alerts in your car, because I was in almost the exact same area and situation 5 years ago on 71 highway in SW Missouri heading north.  Fortunately I found an AM station that was broadcasting information about tornadoes in the area, but couldn't tell where I was in relation to the storms.  Then wouldn't you know it I ended up about a quarter mile (not by choice) from a tornado that had just touched down. That's a very scary situation when you're not actually chasing the storm.

...KS/MO/OK/TX...
  A RATHER STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN SURGING
  SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS
  SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO MIGRATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS KS.  THIS FRONT
  WILL LIKELY LIE FROM NORTHEAST KS INTO CENTRAL OK BY 21-00Z...WHERE
  IT WILL INTERSECT SURFACE DRYLINE EXTENDING INTO WEST CENTRAL TX.
  GIVEN RAPID MOISTURE RETURN...MODELS APPEAR REASONABLE IN DEVELOPING
  VERY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALONG AND EAST OF FRONT/DRYLINE WITH MLCAPE
  VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG FROM EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO INTO TX.  A
  STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION UNTIL
  LATE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND DEEP MIXING
  WEAKEN INHIBITION.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY
  ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN KS AND NEAR FRONT/DRYLINE TRIPLE POINT OVER
  CENTRAL OK.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
  SHEAR SUPPORTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
  WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  TORNADO THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT
  GREATER OVER KS/MO PORTION OF OUTLOOK WHERE LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR
  IS LIKELY TO BE STRONGER.  PORTIONS OF THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE AN
  UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS AS EXTENT OF MOISTURE
  RETURN AND STRENGTH OF CAPPING INVERSION BECOME BETTER DEFINED

could It be #2 in a row for severe weather picks.

We have had 905 tornadoes this year already.....way above avg

What is the record number of tornadoes by end of May?   Seems like this year will be #1 for that time frame....   esp when you factor those crazy winter tornadoes up north in WI and MI.

I am just glad these storms dont get really going till they are right on top of us or to the east.   We have been somewhat lucky, except for those folks up north who got the tornado damage last week.

In regards to the car radios having NOAA- My husband & I just had this conversation. Our motorcyle has weatherband (NOAA) on it-we use it all the time! Often times we will be out on a ride and our direction will change due to weather that is rolling in. We often take the bike out to theater in the park in SM Park- we have been known to go up to the parking lot to listen for alerts and make the decision to stay or go based on it.  I really don't understand why it isn't standard on every radio.
The weather radio that we have here at home is one that looks like a walkie talkie- I drop that in my purse frequently b/c I like the seurity of that NOAA voice telling me what alerts are in the area. (I love the way he says "cloudy")

New blog......

chfs327,

Others have provided you feedback on your passion on this blog for severe weather, and while I certainly understand it...I will also offer my thoughts.

First, offering a prediction a day or two prior to a possible setup isn't real hard to do.  The broadness of your prediction "supercells are in the future" isn't something that I would readily bank on.  This could apply to generally any day from May 1st to June 1st in any of the Plain states.

So much as folks tend to expect GPS type coordinates from local and govt meteorologists where and when things are going to happen, your level of analysis would leave you abandoned before the race starts.

Second, I would have hoped in the last week that you would have taken a bit more wisdom in the sometimes callous nature of your passion for storms.  As close and as deadly as these storms have been, consider being a victim before you present your over-amplified statements.

Third, if indeed you are truly interested in forecasting, then instead of regurgitating analysis of others and evoking fear or otherwise uneasiness amongst those that monitor the blog, I might recommend you harness that passion to understanding how these storms form, the ingredients needed for genesis, and how to forecast them yourself days in advance.

Only then will you get the accolades you seek by your apparent attempts of recognition with your panic-laced, re-spawned analysis.

My apologies if this comes off gruff.  I normally will not engage in this strong of critique of non-mets, but this is a trend that has continued in lieu of other feedback from others that it is not appreciated in the context you deliver it.

I suspect you could be very good at forecasting.  Focus on the learning experience, the power of nature itself, and less on the foolish, broad-based predictions that you are becoming known for.

;-)

Scott, you are my hero!!!  In more ways than one, but thank you for the above...

Scott, you are a wise man.    That was a great posts for chfs and the matter should be done now.    I suggest if he continues to post these crazy, doomsday forecasts, we all just ignore and not respond.   A few on here seem to love the attention of being singled out.   We can force them to raise their level of maturity, instead of being brought down to their level.  

Not trying to come off harsh either and I understand they are young, but we should all learn to respect the blog and what Gary and the team ask us to refrain from doing.    

Regarding the little mini-forecast competition for the week of July 4th:
There were some questions about it, so in the interest of making the rules and verification format clear, I've decided to spell out some guidelines - and the dealine isn't here yet (tonight at midnight) so if others want to enter or if any contenstants have any disputes to these guidelines:  speak now, or forever hold your peace.

Contest for calendar days June 29th through July 5th
-Forecast 4 components for each calendar day:
---High Temp, Low Temp, Probability of Precip, and Precip Amount
-All values will be for the calendar (midnight through midnight) date
-All values will be verified against official KMCI readings

Scoring:

For scoring, we have two options:  Score only against verification, or by seeing who is closest to verification versus "consensus".  "Consensus" is defined as the average of all forecasts submitted.  

Option #1:  Scoring only against verification:
-Temps:  Each temp will be compared to the actual value.  For every degree the forecasted value is "off", an error degree will be assessed.  For instance, if you forecast a high of 85, but the actual high is 80, you'll gain 5 error points.  The lower the error points, the better the forecast.  Your score is based only on you compared to verification, the average of other's forecasts has no bearing on the scoring.

For consensus scoring, the average value for each of the four components (high/low/PoP/amt) would be calculated and you would gain points if you were closer to the actual (verification) value than consensus...and you'd loose points if you were on the "wrong" side of consensus.   Highest points in this case win.  Scores would range from negative values through positive values.  This would scoring system yeilds a value that gives a clearer indication of how people did compared to one-another.

Both scoring systems have their pros and cons.  Which scoring system would people here prefer?  Would the scoring system have an impact on the forecast you've already submitted?  Let's decide on a score system soon so if in fact it would impact your forecast at all, you'd have until midnight tonight to revise it...

Just some thoughts...and a little more time later today to let them evolve...but post your ideas and we'll get this thing rolling.

I think I've already put more time and energy into this than I intended too.  But I think it could serve as a solid foundation for a more significant foreasting competition down the line...could be pretty cool.  This is really going to be more of a trial run, as it seems like a crap shoot to pin down such specifics 45+ days out, in my book.

I haven't even begun looking at any numbers for my actual forecast...guess I better get the ball rolling on that.