NBC Action Communities

Gary,

I have been out of the country without internet access, so I may have missed it, but have you blogged a forecast for July 4 or a summer forecast?  What about Memorial Day weekend?  My wife will have about 70 people from out of town coming to KC.  Dry, please?????

Ok Scott.

Scott,
I think you should re-post the last comment you made on the last blog.  It was very well said!  
I was not pointing it towards Chfs327.  There are alot of others out there also.

Carryover from previous blog.

chfs327,

Others have provided you feedback on your passion on this blog for severe weather, and while I certainly understand it...I will also offer my thoughts.

First, offering a prediction a day or two prior to a possible setup isn't real hard to do.  The broadness of your prediction "supercells are in the future" isn't something that I would readily bank on.  This could apply to generally any day from May 1st to June 1st in any of the Plain states.

So much as folks tend to expect GPS type coordinates from local and govt meteorologists where and when things are going to happen, your level of analysis would leave you abandoned before the race starts.

Second, I would have hoped in the last week that you would have taken a bit more wisdom in the sometimes callous nature of your passion for storms.  As close and as deadly as these storms have been, consider being a victim before you present your over-amplified statements.

Third, if indeed you are truly interested in forecasting, then instead of regurgitating analysis of others and evoking fear or otherwise uneasiness amongst those that monitor the blog, I might recommend you harness that passion to understanding how these storms form, the ingredients needed for genesis, and how to forecast them yourself days in advance.

Only then will you get the accolades you seek by your apparent attempts of recognition with your panic-laced, re-spawned analysis.

My apologies if this comes off gruff.  I normally will not engage in this strong of critique of non-mets, but this is a trend that has continued in lieu of other feedback from others that it is not appreciated in the context you deliver it.

I suspect you could be very good at forecasting.  Focus on the learning experience, the power of nature itself, and less on the foolish, broad-based predictions that you are becoming known for.

;-)

New thoughts.

Ok…now to Gary’s questions…

1. Dewpoints were in the 40s down to the Gulf this morning.  In looking at the current surface obs, the 50s are already mid Texas with readings of 60s and 70s behind it.  With the current direction of wind at the surface and the speed, along with the pressure falls, I would not be surprised to have mid 50s into the lower 60s for dewpoints ahead of the frontal boundary.  

The RUC confirms…

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_bu/.//+dewpt+am+24

2. Again, using the RUC as my weapon of choice for short range forecasting, I like the windshift near Manhattan at 0z.
3. I think we enjoy cloud cover for most of the day until about 0z.  I believe then we will see storms form along the back of the cloud cover.

I do see another similar case as last week with a warm/moist “tongue” of air riding the LLJ near and along the I-35 corridor – just in back of the exiting cloud cover ahead of the frontal boundary.

I think that MLCAPE will be sufficient and if we catch any sun on the backside of clouds, the surface will pop with it.

So..Thurs?  LOL – haven’t even looked at that yet.  ;-)

-------------

Scott,

If the front is still west of Topeka at 00z, then we have a much higher threat of severe thunderstorms.  The dewpoints will surge north, so the position of the wind shift line is very important.

Gary

What will the weather bring thursday as I am going to world of fun! But it sounds as though its going to be a bad day for the theme park. Byan.

Check this link, can you belive how fast her fingers go?!?!?!?!?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4n5ZSqMU0Jw

Chfs,
The reason I am not is because you said "ok scott" so I am hoping that means it will be toned down a little.  :)

Yes, Scott, that was quite the eloquent post regarding this matter.  By the time I get upset enough to post a response my Italian is up and full swing. Hopefully, this takes care of the matter...finally.

Thank you Scott!  I hope people will take your advice.  I am one of those scaredy cats out here and usually come to this blog for comfort and it has helped in the past.  

If we have severe weather tomorrow, what timeframe are we talking?  I am going to be at St Lukes Hospital from about 11:30 AM until at least 2 PM with my parents.

Kristi

Scott,
Great post!

Kristi

I'm off work tomorrow night.  If severe storms rev up and head this way tomorrow eve they'll have my attention, together with Gary's storm coverage, if he's needed.

whoooooooo hoooooooooo Good news lol

THANKS GARY...

My middle son will love ya to pieces... His birthday is sunday..

Gary's weekend forecast sounds wonderful.

It seems our local NWS office thinks there won't be enough instability for severe weather according to the 1PM HWO, yet the SPC has us in the slight risk.

Wow, if those temps don't get changed...I'm going to do something wild and crazy in my backyard when it hits 80!!!

Yeah, Saturday and Sunday are a long way off.  If Gary gets it right from this far out, he's a bona fide candidate for Mensa membership (unless you're already a Mensa member, Gary, and if so, mea culpa).

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/forecasts/graphical/sectors/missouri.php#tabs  

according to that graphic our dewpoint will rise to almost 60. I also see that topeka/wichita has included severe weather in their graphical outlook.

I see why you guys are yelling at Chfs327 because he is always very passionate about it. However I dont see why you guys always hate and argue with him over about his predictions. Sure he is wild and says Ice Storms and Tornados afoot. Sure he is a kid and his predictions shouldnt matter. But having the whole board rilled up over 1 user is dumb.

Scott I liked your message and that is excatly what I should see in the boards. You apolgised about what your message said and said that he might be a good weather caster. He just needs to learn to not put fear into others minds and make people uneasy.

Chfs327. I think you should just stick to your emails and not worry about severe weather and amping up a storm that will do nothing. Yes you were correct 2 weeks ago when Tornados and supercells developed. You said that u wanted a tornado in olathe which is bad. However you got it right that Olathe would be in a Tornado warning

However. Tone down your messages. quit striking fear into users that a Major storm will approach. Let the Pros do there job and worry about it.

What I meant in my last post was that it's been so generally cold and wet this year that to see two days of gem quality back to back in the long range forecast may just be a mirage to a thirsty man.  But if Gary's forecast verifies from this far out, then he's a genius.  Just last night, one local TV personality on another station was forecasting a large trough to form over the mid-U.S., with a stretch of unseasonably cold weather here lasting into next weekend.

------------------

We like the trend!

Gary

How many consecutive months have the temperatures at MCI been below average?  By my count, temps have been below average each month since at least December.  Is that correct?  I could not find data for November.  May is not over, but with current trends it could also end up below average.  When is the last time MCI had below average temperatures for at least 6 months in a row?

----------------

January, amazingly, was slightly above average. Otherwise December through May have been below average.

Gary

Oops, MCI eked out an avg. temp for January 2008 that was 0.6 degrees above average.

So..here is my quick follow-up regarding my chfs327 post – When I started on this blog, I was somewhat similar.  I was cantankerous and somewhat brash with my opinions. [has it really changed?- LOL].  

This was back in the day when blogs would get a handful of comments a day, and blogs did not even happen everyday.  In turn, as it was still rather undiscovered, Gary was a bit more aggressive in keeping folks – especially me – in check.  

I remember numerous times I would get my *words* handed to me after a poorly thought out remark or analysis.  It was this time I learned to either put up or shut up.  So, I was able to learn the hard way, and have subsequently learned how to soften the tone while still making my point.  

I expect that chfs327 and others certainly can do this as well.  I know that so long as the interest and passion is there, amazing things can happen!

I was a weather idiot years ago prior to this blog and into the first year.  It was with the Team’s patience and education that I was enabled to check the ego, take the opportunity to learn, and subsequently become more informed as to what I was spouting off about.

I think it is a learning opportunity that everyone goes through…some more public than others, and certainly on this blog – chfs327 was not a pioneer of being an ***.

LOL

Selsinkc,

If I did my math right in my head, since this cycle began in August [snicker], we are .3 degrees above mean in a month after month average.

It has been the streaks of cool and warm that has been really noticable...

--------------

Good try Scott,

The cycle began in October.  :)

Gary

How long has this blog been in existence? I have copies of posts I made 2 years ago.

Bravo, Scott!!!  Well said!

Scott, my observation was based on each months' averages at KCI airport, and it only went back as far as December.  Do you mean that from August to November our average temperatures were so far above average that when figured in with the December thru April period our overall average temps were actually 0.3 degrees above mean?  

Gary, thank you for including more surface observations on your temperature maps during your weathercast, including the ob for my adopted home town of Mineral Wells, Texas.

Summer and early fall were pretty warm...

I'm trying to remember when I started on here and if I can recall seeing Scott get his "words" handed back to him. Scott, I don't really remember you being a patootey, unless it was waaay before my time here.

I've been commenting regularly in the blog since April last year.  I think that the set up was different before then and I rarely posted.

I notice that twister has toned it down quite a bit too. :)  I know Andrew is still waiting for his two to three foot-snowstorm. :)  I have seen twister and Andrew grow quite a bit in the last several months.

chfs could take some lessons from both twster and Andrew. :)

Kristi  

Oh, and Scott, since you're sort of taking forecast requests, try June 3rd. I really don't want to move in the rain.

I would like to say that I was not harping on anyone about any predictions.  My thing is about the hype of the tornados and severe weather.  It is a scary thing that is out of the control of anyone except the Man above and mother nature.  People die and lose things that can never be replaced.  I have a newfound respect for the weather after experiencing Katrina.  The idea of bad weather scares the hell out of me.  My only request is for people to tone it down.
Gary,
keep up the good work of informing people about severe weather.

Jeri,

All personal forecast requests can be left on my blog or the chat on my blog.

LOL

Looking back, I am not sure when I started blogging?  I see that the old blog/archive has been removed from the links section of this blog.  I got to think it was sometime in 2005….maybe about summer time or so?

I know it was Gary and Jamie then…prior to that, I was buried in tropical forecasting/learning from around 2002 or so on a different blog.

It frightens me to consider the time spent learning and researching weather in the last 5 or 6 years….

Sheesh, next thing ya know Scott will be charging for this LOL
I think it was 2005, because I found an email to Gary about the blog around Christmas 2005.

Considering the following

#1 Posting Rarely
#2 Leaving the Board
#3 getting Bannded on here


Leaning on #1

I've been coming to this blog for several years, I'm thinking since at least 2004, although I've only posted as "seds in kc" for the last year or two.  I think I actually posted using my real name prior to that, but can't find any archived blog info to confirm that.

Chfs,
You said you were sorry.  Why don't you just leave it at that and go on?

Chfs, that is surely your choice. But all everyone has really asked from you is to be respectful and mature, nothing less than what is expected from anyone else here.

Did STJ tie its record low at 3 this morning??

TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY
 MAXIMUM         73    259 PM  93    1962  74     -1       89
 MINIMUM         37R   521 AM  37    1989  53    -16      54
 AVERAGE         55                        63       -8      72


YEP WE DID

stjoelawyer, did you mean 37?

Never mind, you answered your own question.

STJOE just up the road has been below avg mean -3.7 since October...snow on the ground in DEC, JAN, FEB made alot of difference then the stinkin' clouds. 7 months running and th first 12 day of May as well.

Thanks Kristi, I remember you saying last summer how you loved photographing severe wx, but dont wish for any danger. I have taken your advice, it has been hard, but the negatives of severe weather out weigh the positives.

amen twister11!

Gary and Weather Team,

How does tomorrow's outlook fit within the LRC? What time would you expect initial development?

Ryan

I'll be hanging out here tomorrow. I sure don't want a repeat of Saturday. I really was feeling proud of myself that I had a good spot in my house to wait out a tornado. Interior hallway (took all pictures of the walls) and close the doors. Then I saw pictures from just a few miles down the road with nothing but the foundation left. Scary.

edit to say I took pictures off the walls

Lorie,
Just be prepared in case you get bad weather... It does not hurt to be prepared at all, everyone.  

Do you have an interior room with no windows (such as a closet) in the middle of your house?

Kristi

Both of the places in my house that are interior rooms, both closests, both have walls connecting to the garage, isn't that bad?  I heard the garage doors are usually the first to blow out...

The room should be in the middle of the house.  Do you have a basement, wild?

Kristi

one thing I have always wondered, they say to get in a ditch if you are on the road and see a tornado, what about the hail? that would seriously hurt you. I know it is not safe to try to out run a tornado, but if you have are listening to the radio, and say the storm is moving north east, and the tornado is like right parallel to you across a field, wouldnt you just turn around and go south, so you dont end up driving into it?

Yes the Hail would hurt. But not gonna seriously injure you. Tornados Take random tracks and could hit you. You should just get out of the car and take cover in a ditch. Being trapped in a tornado inside your car wouldnt be fun.

I never undserstood that either, twister. I would think that you would get hit by falling stuff like the car. Also wouldn't the tornado just suck you you up? I've heard that you should never out run a tornado ~ you won't win. But it was ok to just drive out of it's path (perpendicular to it). I'm assuming thought some of these cars that were blown off the road on Sat were perp. to high winds. Confusing!

I agree Fergenson. Several people lost their lives this weekend in their car. A friend of my niece lost her whole family when their car flipped last Sat.

Those cars that got flipped are in my opinion, a good example of why people should take tornado warnings more seriously. So many people, when they hear sirens, assume the tornado isn't near them because they've heard the siren so many other times and were never affected. But that one time you ignore the warnings could be the time you are directly in the path of the storm. I'm always amazed at how many people i see going about their business, getting in cars to go somewhere, leisurely coming home, mowing the lawn, etc. when there is a tornado warning for their immediate area.

twister,
It is never recommended to try and outrun a tornado.  A tornado can suddenly change direction.  Sure you could get injured by hail lying in a ditch. The best advice is to get as low as you can.  It's tragic what happened to those who were in cars. :(

Kristi

They may have been in a rural area that may have not had sirens blowing.  If you are driving, the radio stations should always announce warnings whether it be a severe thunderstorm or tornado warning.

Kristi

Not around here Marlina but I did find that when I lived in St Louis.  Part of the problem could've been how the storm shifted it's path. So many people need to get weather radios. My sister-in-law didn't know anything until the sirens went off.

I was listening the the NBC Nightly World News and they were discussing all the deadly tornado's already this year. Stating cause is El Nino and the cooler waters create larger supercells that produce tornado's that do much worse damage than a person can survive without a basement.
Having said that, with the advance warnings systems we have in place, wouldn't seeking shelter somewhere there is a basement make better sense?
Secondly, I was amazed at home many people that died in the last round of tornado's were natives of tornado alley and still got caught in their cars. A vehicle is the WORST palce you can be in a tornado.
Anyone care to vetnure the reasons why?

-----------------------------

One big reason why cars are so dangerous is because if you are in one, then you may not realize there is a tornado coming and then it hits.  It is much better to just be inside your safe place.

On NBC Tonight, they just don't know about the LRC. There is a clear reason why all of this activity has happened, where it has happened this season, and it has very little to do with La Nina, and a lot to do with where the mean trough is located.  I am talking about it at 10:05 PM tonight.

Gary

Marlina, I have seen that many times and I was told it was because people in the midwest are so used to this weather they take a lack-a-daisical attitude anymore. In fact I have been teased more times than I can count about being concerned about severe weather since moving here.
May 4th, 2003, we had to take my daughter to SM West where the middle schoolers were having a science fair. I had a very bad feeling, plus she had a backache and she never gets sick, so I insisted we leave early. People were picnicing, shopping, etc and every station and TWC had been warning about this set up all week. I was commenting at their lack of concern, while insisting my husband get us home STAT. I ran us all into the house and within minutes there was a tornado heading straight for my work, where I would have been if not for taking off for Kristen's science fair.
Maybe it's like us (California girls) with earthquakes. If it doesn't knock things off your walls you roll over and go back to sleep...until you get in the throes of a biggie, as I did, that shakes you out of bed and finally scares the bejeebers out of you. Then you are not so casual anymore.

My Dad,and I are going with Sean tomorrow!! Crossing Fingers that we see our 1st Tornado!! Just hoping for no EF3s- EF5s!! and now deaths, or injuries.

Actually I have Weatherbug on my computer and it chirps an alert for severe weather warnings right in my start up tray.

Busy time of day, boootz.  The tornado hit at 6:00 PM near Racine.  It hit around 5:30 PM in Picher.  Maybe something to look at...  Sending a warning across radio stations.  Did the sirens go off in Picher?

Not every home has a basement.  Our next-door neighbors do not have a basement.. We do.  Anytime we are in the path of a possible tornado, they come over.

Kristi

Andrew I wish I was going but I have a home inspection. You will have the time of your life even if you don't see one. Sean is an amazing person and alot of fun and he is so good explaining things about weather. Tell him I said hi!
Jeri

Enjoy, Andrew!  Let us know how it goes. :)  Let's hope that there are no destructive or deadly tornadoes tomorrow.

Kristi

Kristi,
No I don't have a basement.  I live in a  split level townhouse.  I have a closet that goes under the stairs but one wall is connected to the garage.  I have another closet that is partially underground but still one of the walls is connected to the garage.  That is why I run to my parents house, but they live like 3 miles away.  If I don''t have that time, I don't wanna be driving into a tornado.  

Wild, that is exactly what I am buying. I will have a laundry room on that first level and a crawl space. I am going to look tomorrow and see if the laundry room is a possible safe place. My house sold in a week and I had to get out of here in less than a month so I didn't have a chance to find much in my price range . I can't believe I am putting myself in that situation but I had little choice given the circumstances. I feel for ya sis.

Wild, that is exactly what I am buying. I will have a laundry room on that first level and a crawl space. I am going to look tomorrow and see if the laundry room is a possible safe place. My house sold in a week and I had to get out of here in less than a month so I didn't have a chance to find much in my price range . I can't believe I am putting myself in that situation but I had little choice given the circumstances. I feel for ya sis.

i know I dont really get why they say to get in a ditch. The tornado would suck you right up.

i know I dont really get why they say to get in a ditch. The tornado would suck you right up.

I have a Downstairs but not a Basement. My downstairs is on street lvl and my upstairs is pretty big. The only Interior room I have is a closet big enough to fit me and my dad in. Everyroom has windows including my Laundry Room. My house isnt a very protected one in Tornados. If it ever gets real bad then we will just go next door to my neighbors who do have a basement.

Wild,
If you have to take shelter in one of those closets....  Take something to cover you up and get down in on the floor like thru taught us in school.  Get on your elbows and knees and put your arms over your head if you can.  I think that townhomes and apartments should have storm shelters for their residents.

Kristi

I know it does not make sense, twister, but that has always been the recommendation.  Never seek shelter under a hgihway overpass.

Kristi

TF,
That's perfect...  You should seek shelter there in case of a tornado.

Kristi

Here's a link from the Storm Prediction Center:  http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/safety.html

Kristi

I completely agree.  That is why usually when severe weather is forcast, I go before any of the storms get here.  The only bad thing is I would have to search for something to cover me because I will be trying to cover my 4 yr old son and my 13 yr old step daughter.  It scares the hell out of me to think of getting hurt or God forbid killed by a tornado or whatever, but my kids have not lived their lives and I have had 29 years to live.....

Looking back on the last blog I believe people got confused with Southern Kansas threat then us in KC. Here is our threat stated from the SPC.

PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A FEW STORMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE
  BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF EASTERN KS/WESTERN MO...IN
  STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME.  THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY
  PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY AND DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE STL AREA.

I Believe That is for us. Unless thats in the morning the NVM. I can be wrong and I have a feeling that I am

Hopefully nothing bad will happen tomorrow. I wish Andrew Good Luck on his storm chasing in Southern Kansas/SW Missouri. Hopefully he will capture something and will be able to share it with the blog members.

Got a mattress, wild, that you can throw over you and the kids?

Kristi

TF,
I think that it will be to the south of KC.  We could have some hail and wind here in KC.  I think that the tornado risk is more to the south of KC.  

Kristi

Yea cuz the closet is in her room so her bed is right there.  Is it true though about the garage?  Is a mattress gonna make a difference with the wall connecting to the garage?

simplykristi said:
I've been commenting regularly in the blog since April last year.  I think that the set up was different before then and I rarely posted.

I notice that twister has toned it down quite a bit too. :)  I know Andrew is still waiting for his two to three foot-snowstorm. :)  I have seen twister and Andrew grow quite a bit in the last several months.

chfs could take some lessons from both twster and Andrew. :)


Thanks! And Thanks to everybody, I'm really hoping to see a tornado, I know I will see probably a Dozen or more Funnel Clouds, and Wall Clouds. :)

Wild,
That would probably be the safest place for you to go in an absolute emergency...  I would just grab a mattress...  Have the kids lie flat on the floor, then you lay across them, and place the mattress over all of you.  I know that is not a very good way to explain that, everyone.  But wild needs a way to protect kids and herself in case she cannot get to her place of safety.

Andrew,
I expect to see pics on your blog. :)  Stay safe!

Kristi

Has anyone read Sean Wilson's blog entry from his chase on Saturday?  If you haven't, here's a link to it:  http://www.blownawaytours.us/?m=200805

Kristi

This is how our blog should be everyday!! Everyone is being very considerate, and each is sharing their opinions for tornado protection. And a lot of people are involved in the conversation.

Yes Andrew take some cool pics, and stay safe.

--------------------

I agree!  This is how the blog should be every day.  Let's keep it up.  Over 4,000 views just today, and all of the comments.  You guys help us stay on top of things as well.  So, thank you!

We will have the blog updated early in the morning.

Gary and the NBC Action Weather Team

Gary,
The SPC seems to think *big storms* as wea re in the blue hatched area. The convective outlook discussion says higher risk for tornadoes KS/MO, but do they mean farther south near the triple point? Thanks, Roberto

-----------------

Roberto,

It is just something that has to be watched closely.  If the dewpoints get up into the 60s, the front slows down just a bit, and the cap breaks then we have the conditions for severe thunderstorms.  But, there is a strong cap through most of the day.  We may have some elevated convection in the morning, and this may keep it too cool.  There are all kinds of possibilities on Tuesday, but a slight risk for us seems reasonable.

Gary

I sure hope you don't head this way, Andrew. I did read Seans blog. Very interesting. I bookmarked it, too.

LOL everybody, I will take alot of pics, getting my video/camera charged,plus I'm bringing a throw away camera.

Having lived through the tornado that hit Sikeston Missouri many years ago, I can tell you first hand, a ditch or any indentation in the earth is better than a car or an under-pass. I rode out that tornado in an old airstrip, with nothing more than a indentation in the earth protecting me, and 50 ft away watched it flip fully loaded semi trucks and trailers like they were tonka toys. Even a ditch is below ground surface :)

Thanks Kristi for the tornado safety link. It's good to have the facts in one place.

I really want an above ground safe room. There's a company that makes one down in Neosho. On our local news tonight they were interviewing a family that j u s t had theirs installed. Sat.'s tornado totaled their house but the safe room was fine. He said that he credit's God for pushing him to get one now.

They start at $4000 and can withstand an EF-5. I remember the huge twister that wiped out a huge swath in OKC. One neighbor was flattened but this lady was in her Safe room and was fine.  I'm trying to figure how to raise the $2000 extra that I need.

Kristi,
Thank you for all your help.  Talking about it and preparing for it makes me feel better.  It still scares me but I think I would be able to handle it if it were to come this way. Hopefully not though :)
I do very much agree, this blog today has been wonderful.  Everyone here seems to care about the safty of the ones in here even if we have never met.  That makes me smile.  That is the way things should be.
Everyone stay safe tomorrow!

Well you know some on this thread are talking about going into ditches, or not going into ditches.  Places to stay safe during tornadic activity.  In my case I like to put on my vintage medieval shining knight armor, run outside with a battle axe and charge flying objects and hailstones, fighting back the storm and saving my neighborhood from the onslaught of mother nature.  My armor is metal so I must have rubber layers underneath for the electric storms.

Andrew, why would you throw away a camera? lol jk

Gary. I believe that our correct. I Personally think that if at all they should have a Moderate risk put out. It should be from North of OKC Up toward witchitaKS and west near Joplin and Springfield MO. However I havent seen the new data and Im just gonna let this one be taken care. Ill know in the morning when I check you guys for your latest blog info and the latest SPC Forecast.

Thanks for all the help tonight and Im looking for a good run with you guys in the next couple years that im on here

Kansas,
lol.....I wouldn't do it though

I agree, bewild. It helped me from not having a panic attack whe the sirens were going on Sat. and everyone was giving feed back on what they saw on the internet.  This is great blog even if most of you aren't in my neck of the woods.

Lorie,
I know someone who has a below ground storm shelter.  This is down at Truman Lake.  They had it built just in case a storm came thru.  I think that it will hold eight people.  I don't know how much it cost to have it built.

Kristi

Shocking, KS Patriot, just shocking! 8-O

I don't post very often, but I want to say that people shouldn't panic because a tornado MIGHT hit their house. You should definitely have a plan in place, but don't worry yourself sick (especially people who aren't from around here). I have lived in the KC area for 38 years and I have never personally seen a tornado or even a wall cloud. I am usually one of the people who are outside when a storm is rolling in to see the awesome power of the weather, so it is not like I am so absorbed in my own life to not notice the weather.

Best advice, be alert and be prepared. Best tools are Gary Lezak's weather team and a weather radio and of course your own 2 eyes.

Wild,
You know you can always come on the blog and track threatening weather.  Some of us gave a gentleman a suggestion to leave his mobile home when the damaging storms were headed here in the early hours of May 2nd.  He was able to get to a place of safety before the storm hit and he was very grateful for us encouraging him to seek shelter.  We will encourage you to seek shelter before the storm gets to your area.

Kristi

Lorie,
I will track storms in other states.  If look out for others.

Kristi

KansasPatriot,
You are too funny. LOL

Kristi

lol I was just kiddin everyone.  Could you imagine that though? You look outside during a severe storm, and running down the street in front of your house is some man in full knights armor with a battle axe swinging at hail stones and debris in the air during a tornado warning.

twister,
He needs to get a digital camera. :)  I haven't even had time to put up my pics of the skies form May 1st.

Kristi

KansasPatriot,
Sounds like a Monty Python skit. Very funny.

We got a blew shelter when I was a kid after having a tornado literaly jump our house. It was a nice one. All prefab. We'd store our apples down there and I loved to go sit down there to read in peace.

I don't which is least expensive but still nice. One thing to think of is having to go out in the hail. Our neighbors called Sat. when the hail was half dollar size. (didn't even know they were home until they called) Anyways, my husband figured we'd get hit unconscience if we ran next door.

Then there's my dogs. Two black labs and a brit. They're my kids. I hate to leave them. I lock into their crates and pray that they are ok.  

J,
I know that many regulars on the blog have weather radios and stay tuned to Gary.  Lorie lives in the Joplin area so she can't get KSHB.  But she can get KOAM out of Pittsburg.

Kristi

Kansas Patriot,
I knew you were kidding.  That is why I laughed. LOL

I've been known to stand out in the yard and watch a storm roll in.  My mom just shakes her head at me.  I used to be soo afraid of storms.  Now I like to watch them.

Kristi

Lorie,
Just keep an eye to the sky.  If it looks threatening, seek shelter.  I will encourage you do so.

Kristi

Yep, I watch KOAM. Doug Heady is good but I wasn't happy with their coverage on Sat. They had someone else doing it and he wasn't looking at the big picture. He just kept repeating Baxter Springs KS but never mentioned it'll be in *** at such and such time and then *** by this time. He didn't even mention Joplin even though the sirens were going off and my weather radio was going off. They also didn't stay with us, they kept going back to the Card's game (which was ok by my husband) He doesn't take shelter until he see's it in our backyard.

Off to bed. May be a long day tomorrow. G'nite.

Ok so about tomorrow...so id like to see some good storms tomorrow what does everyone think about that possibility?  I know there are many variables about tomorrow.  So it looks to start off sunny, and then after warming up some storm clouds rolling in?

Lorie,
I will chat with you tomorrow.  I will be gone for a while in the midday.  But I should be home before the severe weather starts firing up.

Kristi

July 4th forecast
97 degrees after a morning low of 72  no precip

Jstonemo,
I have had A LOT of close calls with tornados.  Granted when I was younger I dont remember cuz I just followed my parents directions.  Back in 98 we had one pass over our apartment complex, in 2000 I had one pass over Sonic in Riverside before touching down on N Oak and it tore up my car and broke out windows while I was there, in 03 there was one that touched down and came less than 1/2 mi away from my parents house where I was (and I was pregnant at the time) and then the recent ones, granted those were a little further away but not far enough for me.  I don't wish these horrible things on my worst enemy, but I do worry about them hitting me.  When you have had that many close calls, and that is not counting the ones I dodged down in Louisiana, I just cant not worry about it hitting me.  Everyone has phobias and that one is mine.

Wild,
Just remember...  You got the regulars here on the blog who will help you get thru the storm.

Kristi

:) Kristi,
You are such a wonderful person to be going through what you are and still thinking of others.  Thanks again, goodnight and everyone stay safe tomorrow!
:):)

Good Night, wild!

Kristi

Has anyone ever considered having a hard hat to wear during a tornado warning (or even terribly strong straight wind like was in the bow echo)?  I've thought of it, but not ever heard of it.  Haven't gotten one either.

I need help to update my email address.  I have to keep using my old email address because I don't know how to get to my Profile.  I can't get any more email weather alerts until I get that updated.

Gary, or someone who knows, please respond.

Edna

bewild79,
I completely understand. If I ever come that close to a tornado, I will probably be a basket case for quite a while. That's why I try to avoid the northland :)  I hear people call the northland God's country, but I wonder if anyone told God about it.

weatherwonder:  

Here is the link: http://www.nbcactionnews.com/weather/alerts.aspx

Towards the top of the page is "Weather Email Alerts
Don't be caught without the latest weather news. Stay informed with email updates from us, exclusively for members.
Sign In for Weather Email Alerts "

Sign in with user name and password just like the blog.  You can update your email/text cell number and click on the "update info" button.  You should be ready to go.  Hope this helps....Jim in Clinton

jstonemo,
dont think that I took that personally.  I was just explaining myself.  I get made fun of alot because of my phobia.  I have learned to deal with it though (the being made fun of)  I was the first one down in La that said they were leaving for Katrina and everyone else laughed at me until Bob Breck, an AWESOME meterologist in La, told everyone "Get the hell out of dodge" on the air then they werent laughing anymore...lol

Ugh paranoia already starting to set in!  Might be another night to take refuge at my mom's house.  LOL.

Me too Lily! lol

Lily,
I think that the worst of the weather will be to our south.  If it isn't, the regular bloggers will be tracking things here on the blog.  Just watch Gary and the team and listen to NOAA Weather radio.

Kristi

Chasing tomorrow!!! Headin to Gore, Oklahoma.
I'll be sure to let u know if anything significant develops.

Here is my July 4th week forecast. I'm basing it on a 56-day cycle, thinking that the overall pattern will remain the same but the weakening/relaxing of the jet stream will lengthen the cycle from the current 52-54 days. (After following this blog and reading Gary's and Scott's comments since October, I'm a believer in a cycle that flexes by a couple of days over time while maintaining the same overall "shape").

I also took into account that the high/low temperature volatility (distance from average to record) dampens by 82/75% from early May to early July. The rainfall also historically reduces by 82% over the same period of time.

Based on those assumptions, these are the numbers calculated in my Excel spreadsheet:

high low precip
29-Jun 84 56 0.00
30-Jun 89 65 0.00
1-Jul 90 72 0.00
2-Jul 84 71 0.02
3-Jul 88 66 0.01
4-Jul 83 66 0.26
5-Jul 81 60 0.30

The forecast above is totally statistical (interpolations of May 4-10) and not meteorological in nature. If by chance it verifies, it would be wonderful weather for that time of year, IMO, as this is about 2.5 degrees below normal.

Finally, I didn't post any probability of precip as I'm not sure why it is of value in validation. Either it rains what you forecast or it doesn't.

Well I'm a little late..and Have been a little absent I've been working my butt off selling car parts... but I REALLY like the look of the SPC's Day 2 outlook if that looked any better I'd faint... but I musn't get too excited because Day 2 outlook is going to be a Day 1 outlook in about 40 minutes... Lookin forward to it!

hey hail...I know how you feel buddy.  I purposely stay up on these nights.  I don't have class or finals tomorrow so I'm plotting with my Meteorology major friend where we're chasing.  I'm glad I've got a buddy this time...last time I went chasing(stupidly) I was down in Great Bend during the outbreak the day after greensburg...saw my first tornado in Chase (ironically)...F 1 dropped right in front of me...when I finally was on my way back home I got lost by Ellsworth and ended up taking shelter in a freezer of a gas station because I got caught in the path of a tornado at night.  One of the scariest moments of my life....but can't wait for tomorrow!

I was just reading about an F-6 tornado...now some websites say that there is no way to really measure that because its so strong..anyone know more about it or have any experience with a suspected F-6?

heck yeah cali... couple thursdays ago I chased just around the metro...just ended up doing a rusty core punch cuz nothing came out of anything at the time I was chasing but people say I'm crazy but I LOVE core punching. If I know the hail isn't too huge..I have a subaru Impreza with all wheel drive so it goes through those rain and hail shafts pretty good. we chased (back then an F4 storm) May 29th 2004 to bethany MO and saw it cross the highway it was awesome but that was once in a lifetime and we were pretty far from it. it was nighttime so we had to trust the lightning. I hope we're set up for some good storms tomorrow. AGAIN I'm not a damage to property and DEATH kinda guy. I just have a passion for the storms. PEACE LOVE AND WEATHER!

caliguy, you are chasing as well tomorrow? Nice, Same here done with finals, looing at Gore, Ok right now.

yea I know tornadoes are an awesome sight but don't like the damage or death part of it...but storm chasing and extreme weather gives me a rush...basically while some friends are partying I'm storm chasing...

Orange Bowl $500+ National Championship $100 +
capturing a tornado on camera: priceless


Rock Chalk

Hail Jonathan.....that sounds FUN! Hey by the way when you created your screen name as HAILjonathan were you trying to imply hail as in all hail jonathan but trying to cover it as hail as in hailstorm? hahaha

yea I'm looking down to the tristate area...but just saw it's still just a slight risk...now is it even worth chasing?

Okay Son of... I'm not nearly as excited about the Day 1 outlook..... if i could drop F bombs on here i'd let out 5 right in a row with a couple other things as well...STUPID SON OF A.. DANGIT! you know what I mean.. IT ALWAYS GOES SOUTH!!!

I bet KC metro doesn't even get put under a watch tomorrow....

10 percent hatched area in OK, SE KS, SW MO NE ARK

I am in a 10% chance for tornadoes. Remember May 1st, we were only in a 5% chance. I think this will probably be upgraded to a moderate risk.

oh yeah I'm confident that 10 percent area will go moderate tomorrow... i'm just ticked I'm not in it.

Guys Guys, the sun has not risen...you never know what the tide will bring in each new day even with predictions.  If something were to change at the last minute Kansas City metro would be the place for it to happen.


The only thing we can predict in Kansas City is the Royals being in last place...OOOHHHHH SNAAAPPP.  Sorry..I had to say it.  Aside from the joke I do love my hometown team and im no fair weather fan when it comes to sports!




ok ok last one...it IS weather related too you will see:


Q: Where do you go in Kansas City in case of a tornado?
A: To Arrowhead - they never get a touchdown there.

OOHHHHH man im harsh

I always felt the risk was to our south.  The same areas that have gotten hammered since January are going to see more action.  Hope it is not deadly or destructive.  For those of you chasing, stay safe!

Kristi

caliguy, i do think it will be worth going, it still looks good, plenty of shear, should be sufficient mointure, just need to waite on the cap to erode, and we are good to go.

haha, i wish it were that easy, but yeah, it still looks good.

gotta say those jokes were pretty good, dont like either team so all is good.


Go Packers.

lol

Kristi I saw you comment that up there before the Day one outlook...your good! or is that cuz you saw the NWS map on weather.gov? he he

Nah twister...  Down south will have the moderate risk not here in the KC area.  I know you want a good storm here. :)

Kristi

i agree Kristi. I cant imagine it getting any worse

yeah KC Sports teams...I'm not a sports fan so it doesn't bother me...they aren't the greatest...Good jokes I'll write them down for my comedy routine... thanks man...just kiddin.

Where's Gore, OK?  Too lazy to look it up on Google. :)

Kristi

kristi, i think the 10% chance for tornadoes will probably be upgraded to a mod risk.

Jonathan,
I just had a gut feeling it was not going to be a tornado kind of day for us later today.

Kristi

so kristi how much rainfall totals do you think it will be and what time will it start raining, and then stop raining because i plan on being outside tomorrow afternoon for a bit.

Jonathan,
Go ahead and give me a hard time... :)  Sometimes I do miss.  But a lot of times I am right.  Scott will call me on the carpet if I am wrong. LOL

Kristi

I feel so stupid asking questions on here because you guys all know what you're talking about...where do you go to see if we are in a slight or moderate risk?  This stuff is predicted to start in the afternoon, correct?  

That's what I am thinking, twister.

Kristi

Gore is just SE of Tulsa,

And the event hasnt even begun, so saying knowing that it isnt a tornado event today could be false.

I do expect a watch in KC by the way, looks favorable for atleast hail.

oh I know I was just joking with you. I wish I had a gut like yours that would tell me the weather...because that day 2 outlook made me high as a kite only to be blasted down from the sky by that nuclear missile of a Day 1 outlook. and I DID happen to see the map that the NWS put out for us but I put more faith in the SPC than NWS but right now they are neck and neck.

IT'S FUN! hey I know your right most of the time I was a reader before I was a blogger but it's funny because I was a blogger like a year before I was reader...funny huh?

How accurate do you all think the weather channel is when it comes to KC?

KansasPatriot,
I would be real surprised if we got .25 inches out of this.  Probably won't start raining until later in the afternoon.

Kristi

auroramama

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

There may be some late morning - early afternoon t-storms by KC. Models have shown some convection in the morning near the triple point.

But the most likey time is in the late afternoon.

where are the NWS maps at? I thought it was just from SPC

LVSS,
I am talking about KC....  The tornado risk is to the south of the metro area.  The areas that were under the gun on Saturday.

If we get any severe weather, I just expect wind and/or hail.

Kristi

aurora...go to weather.gov. then on your left hand side you'll see listings of weather information.. Click on Severe weather and click on Convective outlooks. and you can click on days 1 through 3 and green is a slight risk red is moderate and pink is a high risk. but right now it's all green. but you can click on the categorical risks. in the entire slight risk by clicking on the day one map. categorized by tornado, wind and hail. and day 2 and 3 is probabalistic outlooks if you click on those maps.

TWC sucks.  I don't watch it anymore.  I only watch Channel 41 weather team.

Kristi

DON'T EVER LISTEN TO THE WEATHER CHANNEL. KSHB..OR WEATHER.GOV

weather channel, I dont think anyone here recommends it. And Kristi hardly ever hypes storms, like a lot of us. Sometimes I dont know how she keeps it on the down low, while the rest of us are haywire. How do you do it Kristi? lol

Jonathan, I hope you mean KSHB.. OR WEATHER.GOV the most reliable resource. lol

twister if you click on your local region at weather.gov you have access to the NWS Maps...they have a Severe weather map for tomorrow on there.

yeah of course I meant that..i realized that looked like I meant that they were all crappy sources of weather but I meant ONLY the weather channel. I get enthusiastic sometimes.

KSHB..isnt that channel 9? They blow


Anyway, I always liked watching Gary.  I remember yeeaarrss back he always had this dog na