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3 PM updated thoughts on T-Storm potential

Good afternoon bloggers,

Just stepping outside it feels like thunderstorms could form at any time. The stratocumulus clouds seem to be developing a bit more vertically, and it is looking more unstable outside.  Look at the front heading our way on the latest surface map at 2 PM:

I circled the two areas that I see as the most likely spots for thunderstorm development in the next few hours.  One of them is near Kansas City.  The dewpoints are increasing, the front is approaching, and the cap is weakening.  Thunderstorms may form at any time, but most likely between 5 and 7 PM.  And, down south near the Red River Valley, although anywhere near the cold front may see thunderstorm development by evening.

We will monitor this situation closely and have extensive details during our newscasts at 5 and 6 PM on NBC Action News.

Have a great afternoon.  What do you think will happen today?

Gary

Published Tuesday, May 13, 2008 2:48 PM by glezak

Comments

 

kujojo said:

I am going to the Royals game tonight?  Do you think they will get the game in?
May 13, 2008 2:57 PM
 

Mark M said:

Thanks for the update Gary.  My thoughts are the same - a very muggy, sticky feeling outside.
May 13, 2008 2:57 PM
 

Gr8ful Ted said:

The skies southeast of Raytown are gray but not dark enough to indicate rain at 3 pm.  Do you think will southern JoCo see any preceipitation?
May 13, 2008 2:58 PM
 

kcroyals05 said:

It does feel like it want's to storm...   Hopefully it will hold off until later, as I have a ton of outside work to get done.  

Bill
Grandview
May 13, 2008 2:59 PM
 

juniorfan32 said:

I think it may storm but not widespread severe.  It is getting juicy here.  Still 73 and 70% humidity.  Very sticky outside
May 13, 2008 3:08 PM
 

C in Raymore said:

i am probably the only crazy person who thinks this but I wish next month was October, i miss beautiful fall days. love storms but not looking forward to the heat that is coming in a few months
May 13, 2008 3:14 PM
 

KansasPatriot said:

Gary, how come there are so many clouds all day long but no rain? With so many clouds that means there is a lot of moisture in the air right? I am just trying to understand...usually it seems to me clouds come..it rains, then the sun comes out but today its been cloudy all day.
May 13, 2008 3:15 PM
 

JPnKC said:

Gary here is my two cents worth---I didn't think we would get a 60+ DP- I think we will see a few spring thunderstorms by 5 PM they will be linear- very similar to last Sat set-up-- they may form over the metro or just east.

JP
May 13, 2008 3:15 PM
 

Barbara said:

A thunderstorm would be okay...anything more than that and my daughter will freak out.  
May 13, 2008 3:17 PM
 

kane1970 said:

Thanks for the update.
May 13, 2008 3:18 PM
 

spotter said:

lite rain showers in st joseph at 2.50
May 13, 2008 3:22 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I just got home from the hospital with my parents.  Bad news:  My mom has some type of cancer...  We will know the exact diagnosis on Thursday sometime.  My sister-in-law and I just looked at each other and cried.  Unbelievable.

It is muggy out.  I was surprised to see the temp on the van's thermometer at 77.

Kristi
May 13, 2008 3:23 PM
 

Mammatus said:

I would think we should see some rapid T-storm development by 5pm from roughly Topeka east to k.C down to the east of Wichita. I think we could see some very large hail but I would say the tornado threat is minimal but it is quite unstable. There are some good breaks in the clouds now around Olathe and the cap is thinning very rapidly. It looks like the front is slowing down a bit too which will allow more time for destabilization..
May 13, 2008 3:24 PM
 

chfs327 said:

I pretty sure that we will have tornados. I can feel it in my gut
May 13, 2008 3:24 PM
 

weatherwonder said:

The sun just came out in Leavenworth (3:20) when I stepped outside to check on the "muggies" (a meteorological term).  At the moment to me it just feels like it is starting to get muggy.  The sun's breaking through did not last long.

subby64735, thank you for giving me the link for changing my email address.  I found your message this morning.

May we all have a safe night.  It helps me during stormy weather to know that God is in control.

May 13, 2008 3:25 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Oh Kristi, I am so sorry. What a load you bear.
May 13, 2008 3:27 PM
 

juniorfan32 said:

Sunny and 75 in Tongie.  Kristi-so sorry to hear about your folks.  Hold your head high and pray.  Miracles happen every day.  I can't imagine how you feel but you and your fam are in my thoughts and prayers.

Chiefs327-I knew you'd say that.  Next you'll predict an ice storm
May 13, 2008 3:27 PM
 

twister11 said:

Kristi I cant believe it. life has thrown you a double punch and I hope you can get through it
May 13, 2008 3:28 PM
 

juniorfan32 said:

chfs-that feeling is gas
May 13, 2008 3:29 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Well the cold front isn't headed this way.  It just came through here in McLouth, we got winds out of the north at 12 gusting to 15.
May 13, 2008 3:29 PM
 

juniorfan32 said:

chfs-that feeling is gas
May 13, 2008 3:29 PM
 

jacob said:

The SPC made the moderate risk even shorter and like I said before, they even took the tornado threat down.  We are just on the north west side of a slight risk.  I just don't think much is going to happen here in the metro area.  I do think however that we might have an isolated storm like Gary said, between 5 and 7 but nothing severe.  If for some reason we do get something severe, it will probably be for small hail or some strong winds (58mph) but likely nothing more than that.  Even though the temps have gotten to the low 70's and both the humidity and dew points are up, I just don't think there is a strong enough trigger to start up severe thunderstorms.  This is just what I think, but of course we must watch it.
May 13, 2008 3:30 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

LOL juniorfan32
May 13, 2008 3:31 PM
 

JPnKC said:

chfs--did you not understand anything that Scott said last night???
Here ya go again...incredible...
May 13, 2008 3:31 PM
 

KCFarrisFamily said:

I was just outside trying to finish mowing the lawn before it gets wet again and it was sprinkling and the sun was shining at the same time here in southern KCK near 635 and metropolitan.  Its all sunny here as I hit the submit button...
May 13, 2008 3:32 PM
 

KCFarrisFamily said:

LOLLOLOLOLO juionrfan32!!!
May 13, 2008 3:33 PM
 

macnkc said:

Hey chfs327, any predictions on damage so we can run for cover?
Take some pepto and see if another prediction bubbles up.
May 13, 2008 3:36 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Juniorfan  LMAO LMAO LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
May 13, 2008 3:38 PM
 

Carlos3652 said:

I will repeat what i said in the last Blog...

I think by 5pm we will start having some activity, it looks like temps will be in the 70's w/dew points in the 60's, cloud cover should break enough early afternoon to allow for some heating, so we will get some storms, but the main event will probably be in E OK...

Gary, i appreciate all the information you throw at us, always very easy to understand... i have been following this blog for ages, and I want to thank Scott, Notes, yourself and others for making it interesting every day...
May 13, 2008 3:43 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Well, I'm happy that I'm not under a sever T storm alert or T watch ~ yeah! That's a good sign, right?

Way too much bad weather this year for everybody with tornado's, flooding, earthquakes.

Hummer ~ I didn't think your name was rude. I figured you wanted a new car.
May 13, 2008 3:45 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Chfs, what about your thought of posting less that you made yesterday. Maybe that's not such a bad idea. This juvenile posting was rude and uncalled for and you really need to be removed from the blog.
May 13, 2008 3:45 PM
 

Mark M said:

Getting some light rain here in western KCK (123rd & Hollingsworth area).
May 13, 2008 3:46 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Thanks Lorie!  I told my husband I guessed that was why no one talked to me!  :)
May 13, 2008 3:47 PM
 

fitzy said:

Another long time reader but first time poster.....how on earth did chfs last comment make it onto the blog.....?  If that type of comment is allowed I will no longer visit this site, and I love all the info I get from the professional and amateur meteorologists on this site.....
May 13, 2008 3:49 PM
 

NotesInTheMargin said:

This cold front is moving right along.  I don't see many storms being sparked along it until it is in or past KC...to me, significant action W or NW of KC appears very unlikely.  
May 13, 2008 3:50 PM
 

LRCfan said:

Cold front is moving and is east of topeka you can see the coldfront on the nws pleasant hill radar if the cap don't break soon nothing will happen for kc and that is a good thing we could use a break.
May 13, 2008 3:51 PM
 

auroramama said:

Some of us have little ones to protect and don't have safe places in our homes to go to.  Hence why I am always trying to stay one step ahead of the weather, especially after being caught in a tornado some years ago and seeing the power of the destruction.  My whole point being that unless it's Gary or part of the KSHB team on here saying "tornados are coming" I don't think it's very helpful to anyone.  Especially when it's practically on a daily basis.  Sheesh.  
May 13, 2008 3:51 PM
 

chfs327 said:

Ur Uncalled for.
May 13, 2008 3:51 PM
 

vhaldky said:

Gary, let me first say, I really love you!  I've watched you FOREVER!  Way back from when you were on Fox.....I think you are the BEST METEROLOGIST!

In severe weather situations I do not feel safe if I am not watching you report what's going.  You are always letting the viewers know about the areas being hit.  In that round of storms a few weeks ago the sirens went off so much in Johnson County and it was a great relief to be able to watch you and know exactly where the most dangerous situations were.  You always let us know we are safe and you even talked about how we might be hearing the sirens but let us know what areas were in immediate danger.  

You are a tremendous asset to the greater KC area.  I can not thank you enough for taking your job and the safety of your fellow Kansas Citians so much to heart.

As for today's weather, I am still not sure we are going to see any developments.  It can still go either way from what I see.  I do know that no matter what, you'll be there to keep us safe and informed!

Give Stormy a big belly rub for me!
-Victoria
May 13, 2008 3:53 PM
 

BranDan9 said:

Hey Gary, This is Brandon Stafford I wanted to tell you that Andrew and my Dad are with Sean today on a storm chasing tour in Oklahoma I will tell Andrew to send in pictures if he gets any.
May 13, 2008 3:56 PM
 

JPnKC said:

I am with you Notes- looks like the CF is NW to SE from Leavenworth to Lawrence to East of Emporia- and it is moving pretty good- we will be lucky if we see anything in the metro- has it passed St Joe?
May 13, 2008 3:57 PM
 

beckysma said:

Due to chfs327 post at 3:43 PM , I think it's finally time to ban him.

I thought posts here were moderated?
May 13, 2008 3:57 PM
 

JPnKC said:

OK- Notes - I meant NE to SW!! sorry
May 13, 2008 3:58 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

guys just let chfs say what he wants if you know he's being weird and senseless then just take it as that...he just comes here just like any of us, to talk about the weather, may not be as knowledgable about it but still its no reason to criticize him about it...just ignore it. I think we all know who knows what they are talking about and who doesn't and which comments hold concrete and which ones hold air. NOT everything he says is stupid. sometimes people just say stupid things sometimes I've been guilty of it myself. so come on just call you're wolves back and just Peace love and weather alright.
May 13, 2008 3:59 PM
 

radman22 said:

Sun has been out for 20 min in OP with 78 degrees and a dewpoint of 59.

I think we will get a line of storms that will build right on top of us on just to the east.   Points west will not see much of anything.

May 13, 2008 4:01 PM
 

twister11 said:

that comment made me wanna hurl.
May 13, 2008 4:01 PM
 

jacob said:

I'm going to say this once!  DROP THE DRAMA ON THIS BLOG!  IF YOU ARE NOT GOING TO TALK ABOUT WEATHER, THEN LEAVE!  NOBODY WANTS TO HERE YOU PEOPLE ARGUE WITH EACH OTHER!  SO DROP IT ALREADY!

CHFS327, IF PEOPLE ASK YOU TO STOP SAYING SOMETHING, THEN JUST DO IT!  DON'T KEEP TALKING BACK TO PEOPLE.  IT REALLY IS GETTING OLD.  IF YOU KNOW IT'S GOING TO MAKE PEOPLE MAD, DON'T SAY IT.

I try to let all this not bother me, but I am so dang tired of hearing you all gripe at each other.  So lets just talk about the weather. PLEASE!
May 13, 2008 4:01 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Notes - I concur.
May 13, 2008 4:01 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

That's what Chfs wanted yesterday. let's let him have his way and be banned. How unfortunate we have to have immature children spoil the blog.
May 13, 2008 4:02 PM
 

NE LS said:

chfs, I was going to say that Gary asked, "What do you think will happen today?" and your answer was logical for you, and, in my opinion very much okay to say. You answered Gary's question. The others shouldn't have called you down. That being said, your reaction to what they said was just plain gross, unnecessary, childish.....etc.
May 13, 2008 4:02 PM
 

kcweatherfan said:

I agree with Jacob...without the CAPS :-).  CHFS is trying to get a rise and apparently being successful.  As I tell my children...walk away...simply walk away.  
May 13, 2008 4:03 PM
 

twister11 said:

there is like no action in the tornado watch in tx. ok. Just some rain showers.
May 13, 2008 4:03 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Okay - I'll talk about weather - (and in case you didn't see my post on the earlier blog, my name is HummerSeeker because I SEEK HUMMINGBIRDS!  My husband told me it meant something obscene - and I apologize again for any offense I caused!)

Anyway -- people say nothing for the metro, and that it will be east -- anyone wanna guess how far east?  I live a couple miles south of Powell Garden.  Think we'll get any?

Back to birds (I'm a bird snob I guess!) - does anyone have orioles?  They are SO awesome!  They actually fight over grape jelly!  It's kind of funny!  
May 13, 2008 4:05 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

Enjoy folks..I will be retreating back to my site.  
May 13, 2008 4:05 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I never thought that we had much of a chance of any severe weather today.  I would watch out over eastern OK and NE TX.  That is where the action is going to be.

Lorie,
I hope that the severe weather stays to your south.

Brandon,
I can't wait to hear Andrew's account and see any pics.

Jonathan and twister,
I really enjoyed our chat last night.

chfs,
If I knew who you parents were, I would be calling them.  Your behavior on this blog is totally unacceptable.

Kristi
May 13, 2008 4:05 PM
 

KSCityKitty said:

Nice and muggy here in Lenexa!
May 13, 2008 4:06 PM
 

auroramama said:

I do have a question, just was taking a peek at the weather another station (don't shoot me, Gary's not on at 4! LOL) ...does anyone ever compare forecasts on here?  I don't mean trash talking other meteorologists or anything, I just didn't want to bring up anything that is a no-no....
May 13, 2008 4:06 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I'm reatreating to Scott's site too. I am done with this today and the critcizing of those of us who are fed up.
May 13, 2008 4:08 PM
 

NE LS said:

Jacob, I sent that before your comment came through. So...back to the weather. I think we'll get some kinds of storms, maybe heavy. Possibly worse than what was predicted this morning. They'll be over early...one shot and done.
May 13, 2008 4:08 PM
 

jacob said:

HailJonathan...what?
May 13, 2008 4:09 PM
 

radman22 said:

Hummer,  I think you will see some storms.   Just a hunch that that area will not have the front pass before the storms begin.    It will be close though!!!
May 13, 2008 4:10 PM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Over the last hour our temp in Lenexa has jumped to 75 and our dew point had jumped to 66!! Wow! Wasn't expecting that. It looks like there might be a line of showers trying to develop just to the northwest of KC...
May 13, 2008 4:11 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Do you guys think Andrew will post pictures tomorrow?  Isn't he one of the junior meteriologist contestants?  Brave soul!
May 13, 2008 4:12 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

okay...Dewpoint 64 Temp 74 we're reaching critcical point here....this could actually happen...
May 13, 2008 4:13 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I am going to go post in Scott's chatroom.  I am sorry but I won't let some kid give outrageous forecasts that frighten people unnecessarily.  

Kristi
May 13, 2008 4:13 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I said.. "well said Jacob"
May 13, 2008 4:13 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

Jerri - who's Scott and what's his site?  Does it WEATHER discussion?
May 13, 2008 4:14 PM
 

radman22 said:

What seemed to have worked itself out yesterday has really gone overboard today.  I do think the team needs to look at a tighter policy, esp obscenity, and ban those who continue to disrupt the board.    

May 13, 2008 4:14 PM
 

fitzy said:

Where is the moderator????????
May 13, 2008 4:15 PM
 

macnkc said:

Jonathan, you are sounding like chfs. Can't express yourself without the obscenities? You can't censor that word.   You and chfs need to grow up or retreat to a teen chat room with your peers.
May 13, 2008 4:15 PM
 

GaryB said:

poof......The GFS was showing the front to develop to our east for the last 2 days.  It shouldn't come as any significant notice.
May 13, 2008 4:16 PM
 

HummerSeeker said:

HailJonathan - I think I remember hearing Gary or Jeremy on TV say at one point that the higher dewpoints mean a better chance for storsm - is that right, and why you're watching dew points?
May 13, 2008 4:17 PM
 

fitzy said:

Off to Scotts.........
May 13, 2008 4:17 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

well I'm mentally ill I appoligize...
May 13, 2008 4:18 PM
 

radman22 said:

Hummer,  Andrews little brother was in the contest and came in honorable mention but not top 10.    You can watch them all with a link from the main weather page on the far left.  
May 13, 2008 4:18 PM
 

NE LS said:

Read very carefully...chfs did absolutely nothing wrong in giving his answer to Gary's question. I repeat...absolutely nothing wrong! The question was asked and the answer given. No one should have criticized him for that. It was his frustrated response to all of the yelling at him that was wrong. Sheesh!
May 13, 2008 4:19 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

mac....I have anger issues I'm sorry. I'm impulsive I control it best I can I appologize...I didn't mean to do anything wrong I was just trying to defend someone who doesn't know any better okay?
May 13, 2008 4:20 PM
 

KSCityKitty said:

What's the link to Scott's site?  This blog is quickly deteriorating and is not adding any value.  I think it's great that children have interest in the weather, but this is just silly.
May 13, 2008 4:22 PM
 

KCFarrisFamily said:

What is Scott's site???  I thought I bookmarked it but can't find it.  I would like to see WEATHER discussion without the bad language, name calling, and bickering.
May 13, 2008 4:22 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Yes HUmmer, click on KCWXGUY above and it will take you tehre
May 13, 2008 4:23 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

hummer...yeah the higher the dewpoints the more fuel the storms have to work with.  but sometimes it's not always enough.
May 13, 2008 4:23 PM
 

weather » Blog Archive » 3 PM updated thoughts on T-Storm potential said:

May 13, 2008 4:23 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

guys I'll leave so you can all come back here okay...I'm sorry I didn't mean to do anything wrong..I'm impulsive and have short fused anger...I'm sorry I didn't mean to do it I'm sorry....
May 13, 2008 4:24 PM
 

kcweatherfan said:

May 13, 2008 4:25 PM
 

jhawk62798 said:

I office on top floor of a downtown building...looks like good cumulus building nw of downtown, spreading southwest
May 13, 2008 4:26 PM
 

NE LS said:

See something forming NW of KC on radar.
May 13, 2008 4:28 PM
 

elevatorsout said:

Does anyone have a good informational blog, site, or tutorial that discusses what the dewpoint is and what it means?  I'd like to study up on it a little so I can follow the discussion a little closer.
May 13, 2008 4:29 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

i know that some people are upset by certain people that are blogging. I am not going to say who is wrong and who is right and who can stay and who should leave but we are all on this blog for one purpose and that to discuss weather and related topics. We all need to keep that the main focus. Everyone has a right to their opinions and if you dont like what some says then dont respond because if only fuels the fire. So lets all go back to discussing to the main purpose of this blog.
May 13, 2008 4:32 PM
 

jacob said:

Live ESP is showing some storms forming west of KC.  Could these become strong as they continue to move east?
May 13, 2008 4:33 PM
 

Roberto said:

KCFarrisFamily I am with you this is a weather discussion people! The cold front looks to be in Douglas County its 75 at New Century Airfield but 75 in topeka, there is a line on radar.
                -
May 13, 2008 4:33 PM
 

Larry A said:

Some nice cumulus trying to go vertical just east of Lawrence.  Clouds started forming in NW Lawrence and have pushed off to the east in the past 30 minutes.  
May 13, 2008 4:34 PM
 

C in Raymore said:

NE LS, i think it has to do with what he has said in the past too, so it hits people wrong when he says that he think tornado's are happening without warrant.  yes if you read it for the first time it doesn't seem as bad, but knowing how he has responded in the past  you might understand why someone got upset.

i agree are we not being moderated at all? or do they just allow all to come though? I have been wondering how this works. implying curse words or actually cursing shouldn't pass through a filter. it is sad that the people who actually enjoy knowing what is going to happen are getting pushed away because of things not being moderated better.

May 13, 2008 4:35 PM
 

LSGolfer said:

If you look at the radar image below, you'll see the colf front forming on a line parallel to I-35 from Camdon, MO to OKC, OK.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/full_loop.php
May 13, 2008 4:41 PM
 

jacob said:

New blog.  Everybody needs to read this now!
May 13, 2008 4:41 PM
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