Good morning NBC Action Weather Bloggers,
The weather is calming down, and possibly drying out. For the first time this year we may actually have to consider watering the lawn. Maybe not quite yet, as it may rain tonight and Thursday, but after tomorrow's storm goes by we are going to go into dry northwest flow aloft with the jet stream shifting off to the northeast of us. This will allow it to warm up for at least a few days. The jet stream will shift back to the south within a week, however, so the dry weather should last only about 7 or 8 days. The longest dry spell we have had this entire year has been 7 days, so let's see if it really does last that long. We are just now going into the climatologically wettest time of the year, May 15th to June 15th. So, it will be difficult to stay dry for long.
Look below at the surface forecast for 4 PM today:
Air blows away from high pressure, and towards low pressure. High pressure, this morning, is expanding across Nebraska and Iowa, and will provide north winds and a nice day with highs today in the upper 60s to lower 70s. It is going to be nice.
There is an upper level storm spinning over the southwestern United States this morning and moving our way. It is causing a surface low to develop way down near the Mexico border. Where will the upper low and surface low track early on Thursday? The track of the upper low will decide whether we stay dry on Thursday, or if rain will spread in from the south. Look at the GFS forecast for 1 AM tonight (below):
The upper low is weakening, but on last nights GFS, is ejecting out of the southwest across northern Oklahoma. This track would definitely bring rain into our area tonight and during the first half of Thursday. But, this track is still somewhat in question. And, the strength of the weakening upper level low is also uncertain. We will likely be able to pin down the track and rain chances as we move through the day. So, watch NBC Action News for all of the details at 11 AM this morning, and then at 5, 6, and 10 PM tonight as we work on some special weather graphics to describe this weather pattern.
Speaking of weather patterns. Monday night at 10 PM, my boss has decided to give us three extra minutes to talk about the summer forecast and the weather pattern. We will prepare a special segment on the LRC and provide a summer forecast on Monday night.
And, we announce the winner of the Junior Meteorologist contest on the 5 PM newscast Friday evening on our 5 PM newscast.
Have a great day!
Gary