NBC Action Communities

Gary, she is probably watching another station. If she were one of your viewers, I doubt she would feel that way.  Let's enjoy this quiet time for however long it lasts.  Seeing some brown dirt instead of the dark, wet, mud on on the lawn is a welcome sight for a change. I am tired of mowing wet grass! Hope everyone is able to get out and enjoy this weather!

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It is like spring is just now beginning.  Thanks, and have a great day!

Gary

Gary- My daughter is graduating this weekend, I am so happy that the weather is going to be cooperating.  I read this blog several times a day, and it is the best one out there, thanks again.  

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Good luck with your daughters graduation.   The weather will be nice.

Gary

That woman who wrote in is obviously not paying as close attention to the weather as she claims she is. It was all over the place that a strong and potentially dangerous line of storms would come through after midnight.

Hey Gary! You make it totally clear what the weather situation is. We would be in trouble without you and the rest of the staff informing us what the weather is doing. We appreciate you all! Have a great day-I am looking forward to some warm, dry weather! Deb

Hi Gary- My son really enjoyed your visit to Hawthorn Hill yesterday! We are big fans of yours in our house, we watch every day! Glad the great weather is finally on it's way!

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Thanks, and it is about time we have a longer stretch of nice weather.  Once this storm, to our south, the great weather arrives.

Gary

Gary,
Not only does this offend me as a meteorologist, but it offends me as a human being.  When have we become the society where no one can look out for themselves anymore?  Have we become so complacent that someone else has to warn us to do something to save our lives?  I'm not saying that there shouldn't be storm sirens; they DO save lives.  But, are they OUTDOOR sirens?  Can they really be heard inside some of today's houses when people are sound asleep?  Once again, people have to blame someone else for what happened.  I almost scream my head off every time I read in some paper on the aftermath of a storm "We never got any warning."  
Yeah, right.
People have satellite, cable, internet and cell phones, all broadcasting warnings.  What they don't want to admit is that they might actually have to take some personal responsibility and actually be on guard at all times and prepared.  I live in the middle of nowhere.  No sirens, no city police, just me and my eyes and ears to tell me if something is happening.  If I want to live another day, I'm going to be the one to make sure of it.  
In conclusion, I am not making light of the past devastating weeks in the country.  My heart goes out to those who have been impacted.  There was a fellow volunteer firefighter in So. Missouri that passed away from injuries while storm spotting for his community.  Tornadoes are a powerful force, and one that must be respected.  One cannot depend on everyone else telling you if one is near.  After all, TV radar is really a "new" addition to the science.  Think about the 50's and 60's?  
Hope this didn't come across as way over the line, but it is a little pet peeve of mine, and I will completely understand if some take offense to my remarks.  But, there is a lot of truth to what I have said, and I will stand behind those remarks.
Have a Great Day, everyone.

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You made good points.  And, you are correct. Our Live:ESP radar software is only getting better and better. 

Gary

I think Scott or Bill in Lawrence should respond in a letter to the editor (especially since they are weather-savvy).  Anyhow, if you wash your car today, it will rain.  It is a true scientific-meteorologic fact.  lol

Gary,

Do not worry about this. As adults, we are all responsible for our own lives and our safety. Paying attention to weather forecasts during a stormy event is one of those responsibilities. We cannot abdicate this responsbility to anyone else although some people obviously try to do so. On the evening in question, there was ample discussion regarding the "possibilities" of the 2:00am line of storms. Every media outlet [TV, radio] made this threat very clear. Unfortunately, weather forecasting science cannot predict the "exact" location of severe weather. Some people feel it should. We even see this expectation on the blog. Remember the flack you took regarding the January 31 snow storm that missed us?

I welcome the warm weather. It is time...

Best,

Bob

Apparently this lady does not watch you all or she would not of said that!!! I agree with 4Caster....you do need to take some personal responsbility for you and your families safety. Why did the KC Star even print this is my question?? Yesterday's weather was awesome...LOVED IT!! I have a few sprinkles down here now, nothing that will ruin the day though. Have a good one!!
Monica

****************

Monica,

What is your email address?  I have a Pleasanton question:)  Just send me an email at jnelson@nbcactionnews.com  (I will get it to him Monica, Gary)

Jeremy

Good morning team.   Gary - don't fret over it..   Your team did an excellant job of keeping us informed.  You pointed out very well that there would be another threat of severe weather early in the morning...  

Also, the last time I looked, it's not the local "TV meteorologist" that activates the tornado sirens.  That's the county's EOC..

Anyways, you and your team do a graet job say in and day out.  

Bill

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Bill,

The sirens could only have sounded if the tornado warning were issued.  The thunderstorms that produced the tornado developed quickly and got absorbed into the bow echo.  Most bow echoes do not produce tornadoes.

Gary

OK, the rant is off for this post!!

Let's look into the future about 10 days.  It's our favorite weekend, Memorial Day weekend, the time when the storm season really starts to take off.  Granted, for some of us north of I-70, it has been a little quiet lately, but let's just have a little fun and expound a little.

LRC at 52-56 days lines up a reoccuring storm over the midwest during the weekend.  For reference, the end of March/1st of April storm and the Feb. 5th storm.  Both had decent inflows/moisture to feed, plus above normal temps at the time.  Looking at the latest forecasts into the middle of next week, what do we see?  Why, it's mid 80s with a southerly component.  Just in time!!  The GFS has never been a great tool to use after 5-7 days, but it does show some disturbances trying to materialize in this timeframe.  Notice I said "trying" to.  Really nothing that jumps out and says outbreak.  There is one wave for next Thursday, but we know how models can sometimes slow down as the moment of truth is at hand.  
Just some fun forward thinking to wake you up in the morning.
That is all.
Later

You echoed my very thoughts 4caster.  Knowing that the 2nd wave of storms was not to be taken lightly, when my weather radio went off around 11:55 that night (I think it extended the watch period), I got myself out of bed and turned on the computer.  When I saw the approaching bow echo on radar, then turned on TV and heard the wind speeds associated with it (it was still a ways away from town), I monitored both TV and radar and got my family up and into the closet under the stairs in the basement before it hit.  We only received very high winds and no damge at all, but had we been in one of the tornado affected areas, we would have been safe.  Why?  Because we knew from channel 41's warnings and from all we've learned here that bow echoes are particularly dangerous.

Keep it up, Gary and the Weather Team.  You give us the information and education we need to know, WITHOUT telling us the sky is falling.

gary all that matters to us is your team gives plenty of information out on what to expect on weather and you give at least a two day window or more when you can on what to expect.also on the weather radio i have mention maybe sometime on your weather cast show the weather radio explain how it works so people know how valuble  these radios are in severe weather.

Oh...and to quote Ron White..."it's not THAT the wind blows....it's WHAT the wind blows."

Gary,

I will say that there is a disparity between the local stations regarding weather.  Each station says something different.  But after a severe weather outbreak two years ago that only you forecast, I changed my alliances.  So I can understand the writer's dispair with the "local weather".  

However, I too, awoke at 2am and turned on your forecast and remained in bed because there was no mention of tornadic activity, "just strong winds."  I suppose if my home had sustained damage from the tornado I would also be frustrated.  

On a lighter note, where do you snag your on-air wardrobe?  Always fashionable.

*******************

I'll respond to this since I was here and clearly remember what was said.  The emphasis was on strong straight line winds with the bow echo but we kept mentioning that a Tornado Watch was in effect and that thunderstorms can and do produce tornadoes with little to no warning.  The setup was not classic for tornadoes with the bow echo, but the threat was there and the Tornado Watch and severe thunderstorm warnings covered the threat.  I mentioned that this needed to be taken seriously...tornadoes or not...since winds were clocked at 70mph in Lawrence.

Jeremy

Regarding the little mini-forecast competition for the week of July 4th:
There were some questions about it, so in the interest of making the rules and verification format clear, I've decided to spell out some guidelines - and the dealine isn't here yet (tonight at midnight) so if others want to enter or if any contenstants have any disputes to these guidelines:  speak now, or forever hold your peace.

Contest for calendar days June 29th through July 5th
-Forecast 4 components for each calendar day:
---High Temp, Low Temp, Probability of Precip, and Precip Amount
-All values will be for the calendar (midnight through midnight) date
-All values will be verified against official KMCI readings

Scoring:

For scoring, we have two options:  Score only against verification, or by seeing who is closest to verification versus "consensus".  "Consensus" is defined as the average of all forecasts submitted.  

Option #1:  Scoring only against verification:
-Temps:  Each temp will be compared to the actual value.  For every degree the forecasted value is "off", an error degree will be assessed.  For instance, if you forecast a high of 85, but the actual high is 80, you'll gain 5 error points.  The lower the error points, the better the forecast.  Your score is based only on you compared to verification, the average of other's forecasts has no bearing on the scoring.

For consensus scoring, the average value for each of the four components (high/low/PoP/amt) would be calculated and you would gain points if you were closer to the actual (verification) value than consensus...and you'd loose points if you were on the "wrong" side of consensus.   Highest points in this case win.  Scores would range from negative values through positive values.  This would scoring system yeilds a value that gives a clearer indication of how people did compared to one-another.

Both scoring systems have their pros and cons.  Which scoring system would people here prefer?  Would the scoring system have an impact on the forecast you've already submitted?  Let's decide on a score system soon so if in fact it would impact your forecast at all, you'd have until midnight tonight to revise it...

Just some thoughts...and a little more time later today to let them evolve...but post your ideas and we'll get this thing rolling.

I think I've already put more time and energy into this than I intended too.  But I think it could serve as a solid foundation for a more significant foreasting competition down the line...could be pretty cool.  This is really going to be more of a trial run, as it seems like a crap shoot to pin down such specifics 45+ days out, in my book.

I haven't even begun looking at any numbers for my actual forecast...guess I better get the ball rolling on that.

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Notes,

Let's use option #1 above.  Get your forecast in by tomorrow.   I thought that was the deadline, but Scott jumped onto the forecast, so I put mine out there.  I am not going to change it.  I didn't add pops.  I think you should just put down the amount of rain that will fall on that day, and then use the verification.  What do you think?  And, I spent 15 minutes on it.  So, I don't feel like you are feeling that you are spending much more time on it than you thought.  A forecast that specific so far out is tough, obviously.  This is why when we look at that week, we will have a clear winner with the accuracy check, but I will look at that week as a whole and determine how well we did.

Gary

Gary and team, you guys are always on top of severe weather situations and never discredit any real threat of Severe weather. I remember that evening and hearing you all say that there was going to be an intense line of storms around 1:30-2am. I have a habit of trying to catch a little of everyones forecasts when there is Severe weather and it seems that some of the other stations really downplay Severe weather so people don't panick. I never understood that, that is why we have people that say, oh a tornado will never hit kansas city or, there is never a tornado when the sirens go off. You guys forewarned everyone that watched your evening newscast that the second round of storms was going to be intense and it would have to be watched. I think I would speak for the majority when I say that you guys do an incredible job of forecasting and we appreciate you.

Gary wrote: "And, it is drying out.   If you just look at the weather pattern we have been in since October, this northwest flow and ridge in the west is right on schedule and will keep us dry for about 7 to 10 days. Before the end of the month, though, some very good chances for thunderstorms will return."

Woo-HOO!

It just so happens that I have an outdoor camping trip planned for a festival in rural Leavenworth County for the 22nd through the 26th.  If the dry spell can encompass those days, then I can get through the camping and be home, safe and dry, for the month-ending thunderboomers.  Here's hoping!

Thanks, Gary, Jeremy, Brett and Jeff, for the great job your team does.

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Good luck on the 22-26th time frame.  We will know more soon about those days, but at least at the beginning it looks dry.

Gary

Without reading the other posts, I want to revert back to an e-mail I sent to Mr. Lezak several weeks ago. I had stated that Mr. Lezak and the weather team IS the most accurate team I have encountered. I am retired military (within the last year). I have been ALL over our great Nation AND the world. When I first arrived here, like I do everywhere I go, I compared forecasts for about a year. When it was all said and done, the disparities forecasts were unbelievable. When Lezaks team forecast 70 degrees, others would forecast 40. When Mr. Lezak forecast 25 degrees others      -20.  Some stretching BUT NOT MUCH. There were times when the forecasts were so far away from one another, I wanted to write  the other station ( I won't say the name, but it rhymes with Box) and ask where were they getting their info. It was astounding, rediculous and baffling. So in short, don't feel bad about one article. Evaluate what you are doing in reality, not what one person or even a handful of people are evaluating in "BOX" land.
Have a great day.

I don't even understand the point of why this fool wrote the article in the first place.  The NWS is responsible for notifying the public in the event of a weather emergency with watches and warnings (i.e. news stations don't issue their own watches and warnings).  Ok, so obviously that happened because their weather radio ALERTED them.  Furthermore, if they went to bed at 9:30pm they obviously weren't even watching Gary show live ESP around 10:20pm with the big line of storms moving towards KC.  I even remember watching that and telling my wife it's going to hit us pretty hard in a few hours.

Hey, cut me some slack Jeremy.  It was 2 in the morning after all.  I can't be held responsible for catching every word.  I do recall not having a more emergent reaction to the weather because there were no tornado "warnings", which is when shelter is typically sought.  You absolutely mentioned high straight line winds and "hurricane force" winds associated with the bow echo.

****************

I just want to keep things clear on what was said that night...that's all.  There were no tornado warnings issued, but I know the NWS was really trying to drive home the point of damaging winds possible.

What was in the paper was way out of line because I know that was nothing close to what we were forecasting or even saying when the storms moved in.

Jeremy 

It's the same story, different storm unfortunately. Every time a tornado rolls through the area, the very first "critical" thing you hear is "I didn't hear the siren" (no matter if they sounded or not). The citizen lobby for more sirens, and cities shell out money they don't have available for additional sirens that don't make much of a difference in the long run.

What can we do to change the mindset of people to get a weather radio? Programs like what KSHB and other stations have done with Midland Radio et alt. are certainly a step in the right direction. What else can we do? It is going to be a slow change no matter, but it's times like these when we need to be extra vigilant in stressing the importance of a weather radio.

What ideas do you have to spread the word about the need for weather radios?

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Ed,

It is nice hearing from you, first of all. Secondly, we are partnering with Price Chopper, and next week I will push the weather radio importance hard since I will be out in Parkville.  We have clear examples of how weather radio combined with the broadcasting warnings on television and radio can help inform everyone in our viewing area as to the dangers of the severe thunderstorms.  The night of the bow echo was a tough one to issue a tornado warning.  And, the people that were hit, most likely, would not get much advance warning in any warning system we have.  That was just one of those rare nights.  The next time we have a bow echo we should not sound the sirens, unless it is as strong as the one of May 1st/2nd.  Most bow ehcoes are not that strong.  The only thing we can do is wake up people with the weather radio, and then our television coverage would have wording like we said, "hurricane force winds will be moving through the metro area, you should stay away from windows and take cover during the 15 minutes that this blows through".  Something like this. So, it is a combined effort.  What do you think?

Gary

Jeremy, I live up north and was watching you that night, and I actually did go to the basement because the sound of the wind was freaking me out.  HOWEVER, that was just my choice because I'm a wimp, and I never thought there was danger of tornado.  I was just worried about the wind blowing my windows in.

I think most people are NOT going to go to the basement until they hear you say the word "TORNADO" either spotted or indicated on radar.  I don't think the fact that there was a tornado in Liberty or Gladstone was mentioned, but I could have missed it while gathering up the kids.  

I listed to you and understood the seriousness, but most people are NOT going to take it seriously until the meteorologist says "TORNADO - GO TO THE BASEMENT"

*********************

No one said right when it happened that a tornado is moving thru Gladstone or North KC.  However, like you said we were strongly emphasizing the threat of winds of hurricane force and damage possible/likely in areas.  I started to really think that more than straight line winds had occurred shortly after the bow moved by and we received reports of homes destroyed. 

Jeremy

TV meteorologists do not issue warnings...  Warnings only come from the NWS.  I remember Jeremy tracking those storms as they approached and came across the metro.  Brett eventually came on the air too.

Everyone needs a weather radio with an alert system and that radio needs to be in alert mode every time!

Kristi

How many times have we heard that severe thunderstorms can produce tornadoes with little or no warning?  The storms were moving at 60 MPH.

Kristi

Is that letter on the KC Star website?  If so, I would like to comment on it.

Kristi

Good morning Kristi!! Hang in their girl. I work for Saint Lukes South and I recommended to my mom to get her treatments through Saint Lukes...so if I told my own family then you know I believe in them. Take care and enjoy the nice weekend.
Monica

It is frustrating to hear people that refuse to take responsibility for the safety of themselves and family. I have heard people say that they have a weather radio but do not use it because it goes off all the time- wakes them up in the night........that is the point people. If you have it programmed correctly (yes, you will have to put a little effort into this part) you will be awakend in the night if the need arises. Wouldn't you want to be awakend to keep your family safe? Don't you want to have warning time to get your family gathered up and into the safe area you have established? Baffling. Every home should have at least 1 weather radio (and use it!). I think I will purchase one for our church as we go to a rural church with no cable tv, internet or the like.
It sure would be nice if all radios had the capability to pick up the weather frequency- so more people could access it.
Homeland security made a push after September 11 for folks to purchase a weather radio, because they are capable of receiving all sorts of alerts. I'm with you, EdRoberts, what can be done to make more people understand the need to have and use a weather radio?

Monica,
That is where Mom and Dad are going....  We go to the main hospital near the Plaza.  I would not go anywhere else. :)  I will let you know what happens.

Kristi

Gary you do a great job. Just remind yourself you have to be prepared to swallow the critical opinion of a whole lot of people who don't know what they are talking about or will try to justify their own lack of vigilance and common sense by blaming it on someone else.

Keep up the good work.

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Thanks for the advice.  It is fine, but when I first awakened this morning that was the first this I read.

Gary

Gary,

Sounds good about using Option #1 for the scoring - simply comparing against actual values.  Much simpler calculation too....

I just finished spending about 20 minutes on my forecast itself - I was spending more time just setting the parameters.

We'll just count H/L/Precip in the verification since you don't have pops.

I agree that getting this specific this far out is pretty much a guessing game.

I went with an overall average for the week of slightly below average temps and around average precip for the period - largely using climatology with the CPC July forecast weighing it toward the cold side.  I randomly chose time periods for two cold fronts to pass through (nights of the 30th, 4th) with a pre-frontal warm-up, frontal precip, and cool days following.

So...our forecasts of record:

-  -  -  -  -

Scott:
June 29th High Temp – 91  Low Temp – 69  PoP: 0% Precip – NONE  
June 30th High Temp – 88  Low Temp – 68  PoP: 0% Precip – NONE
July 1st High Temp – 86  Low Temp – 68  PoP: 0% Precip – NONE
July 2nd High Temp – 84  Low Temp – 67 PoP:  30% Precip – NONE
July 3rd High Temp – 83  Low Temp – 69  PoP:  60% Precip - .60 in.
July 4th High Temp -  82  Low Temp – 62  PoP:  40% Precip - .23 in.
July 5th High Temp -  89  Low Temp – 68  PoP:  0% Precip – NONE
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Gary:

June 29th:  Partly cloudy, scattered thunderstorms.  High:  87 Low: 67  Precip:  0.35"
June 30th:  Scattered heavy thunderstorms.  High:  79  Low:  64  Precip:  1.02"
July 1st:  A nice day.   High:  86  Low:  67  Precip:  None
July 2nd:  Partly cloudy.   High: 89  Low:  69  Precip:  None
July 3rd:  Hot & humid. Night T-Storms.   High:  91  Low:  70   Precip:  .33"
July 4th:  Warm.   High:  86  Low: 64  Precip:  None
July 5th:  Scattered T-Storms.                  High:  84  Low 63  Precip:  1.25"


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Notes:

06/29:   High:  85 Low:  65 PoP:  10% Precip:  0
06/30: High:  90 Low:  66 PoP:  30% Precip:  0.10”
07/01: High:  79 Low:  62 PoP:  50% Precip:  0.40”
07/02: High:  90 Low:  71 PoP:  0% Precip:  0.10
07/03: High:  84 Low:  71 PoP:  0% Precip:  0
07/04: High:  79 Low:  57 PoP:  50% Precip:  0.35”
07/05: High:  89 Low:  66 PoP:  10% Precip:  0
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Notes,

We will get everyone's forecast out there in one comment tomorrow.  I think Brett and Jeff Penner will be doing a forecast as well.  I will see if they have them by the end of the day.

Gary

Hi Gary:

I have two questions for you regarding the weather.

1) Do you think that the global warming has anything to do with recent devastating tornadoes "outbreak"? Can you explain the link between them?

2) What is the difference between tornado and waterspout? Is it tornado described on ground whereas waterspout over water?

Thanks and keep up with the good work.

Hey, don't forget mine. Sounds like I did my forecast like Notes did, mainly Climo with some adjustment towards the cooler and wetter side. Guess I gotta add some amounts...

Sun June 29  Cool, nice. High 82 Low 61 Precip: 0.00
Mon June 30  Warmer. High 85 Low 65 Precip: 0.00
Tue July 1  More humid. Widely scattered afternoon t'showers. High 86 Low 69. Chance of rain 20% Precip: 0.00
Wed July 2. Humid. Widely scattered afternoon t'showers. High 88 Chance of rain 20% Precip: 0.00
Wed night. Chance of organized overnight t'storms (MCS). Storms could produce heavy rain or brief high winds. Low 72. Chance of rain 40%. Rainfall potentially 1" or more. Precip forecast: 1.1"
Thursday July 3. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Warm and humid. High 85. Low 68.
Friday July 4. Partly cloudy and humid. High 89.
Friday night. Chance of shows and thunderstorms early, chance of MCS overnight. Storms could produce heavy rain or brief high winds. Low 72. Chance of rain 40%. Rainfall potentially 1" or more. Precip forecast: 0.6"
Saturday July 5. Mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy. Warm and humid. High 85. Low 68.

Oops - sorry about that RDub - but you're in now.  You may want to clarify your day versus night a bit...putting your highs and lows on certain calendar days since thats the way verification will be done.  

I guess I can assume that when you say something like "Wednesday night - low 72" you mean that would be your low of record for Thursday (early in the AM) but for the sake of clarity, calendar day values may help so there is no question.

This is going to make for a fun week.

I'm still hoping to get a regular, online, short-term (2-day) weather forecasting competition going sometime in the coming months - this summer should afford me more time to get that ball rolling.  Its about 50/50 as to whether or not it'll happen.

Is Jeremy going to get in on this thing?  Brett?  

Gary -
Yeah, I figured that I should join in the conversation over here after doing stuff like this for 3+ years :P

Great to hear that you'll be hitting the weather radio thing hard. It's certainly a start.  The May 2 bow echo was certainly unique and it's instances like that which show the unfortunate side effect to SAME in weather radios. If people only have their radios set to sound for tornado warnings they wouldn't have gotten the alert. To their credit, Pleasant Hill worded the severe thunderstorm warnings as hard as they could with that bow echo. If you got alerted for the SVR on the 2nd, it was very clear that action needed to be taken.

While outside of the scope of even Pleasant Hill, maybe there needs to be some policy within the weather service for firing the "tornado" alert tone for extreme wind events such as this. Doing so would essentially kill 2 birds with one stone; Fire off weather radios, and alert emergency managers to the severity of the situation.

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Ed,

I am not so sure of your idea of the new policy of firing off a tornado warning for this situation.  The only way I would agree, is if the policy allowed for an "only in this extreme situation" would the tornado sirens go off.  We just have to be careful not to issue a tornado warning for just a strong bow echo.  It would have to be the extreme case of May 2nd.  And, those don't happen very often, perhaps once every few years.  We get a lot of bow echoes, just not that violent and wide spread. 

More importantly, the emergency managers in the counties along and just north of the bow echo could have an option with this extreme case.

Gary

Just a quick thought on weather radios; (ok, I'm at work and can't type too much :o)

They need to be considered right up with with smoke alarms in importance.  
Every home should have one (and every car too.)  

Getting alerts on cell phones is fine, and I love the fact that I can even pull up radar on mine.  But several times over the past few years, during storms and power outages, the cell towers have gone out, leaving me in the dark, with nothing but my little old banged up weather radio, which just keep going  & going and kept me informed.

Thinking good thoughts for you & your folks Kristi!

Notes, yes, that is the way my low forecasts are...so the first low forecast is for Sunday night/Monday am, and the last is for Saturday night/Sunday am.

tornado sirens going off in maryville. just a test though. my girlfriend and i were sitting in her living room and we started hearing them, i thought it was too clear outside to have a tornado. we turned the tv on and the test message started going off. lol.

Gary--

So sorry this woman in the above article didn't take responsibility into her own hands and just buy a weather radio.  We had been putting it off until that very day and my DH did buy one which is what alerted us to the coming of the storm.  Then we of course turned on a couple of televisions and tuned into Jeremy and Brett that early a.m. for the updates.  I guess she's just trying to rationalize and put the blame on others.  

Looking forward to the beautiful weekend ahead of us!

Here's my stab at the forecast.....

6/29:  High 85  Low 67  PoP 10%  Amt .10"
6/30:  High 88  Low 69  PoP 0%    Amt 0
7/1:    High 87  Low 63  PoP 0%    Amt 0
7/2:    High 91  Low 67  PoP 10%  Amt 0
7/3:    High 87  Low 65  PoP 40%  Amt .25"
7/4:    High 83  Low 64  PoP 50%  Amt .50"
7/5:    High 86  Low 62  PoP 0%    Amt 0

StormWyndd...not to be too nitpicky, but smoke alarms are much more important than weather radios, because the odds of being in a fire are huge compared to being hit by a tornado. In 2006 there were 1.6 million housefires in the US, resulting in 3,200 deaths and 16,000 injuries. The numbers from severe weather pale in comparison. Plus, there are no secondary alerts for a fire; no TV station or cell phone alert can warn you of a fire in your own home.

I'm not saying a weather radio isn't a good idea...but smoke alarms are mandatory!

Well it is nice to have nice weather for people to enjoy and so the crops can catch up, yes some fair weather cumulus here in St. Joe with very light winds...
As Brett mentioned earlier it is probably building it up in its system for the Memorial Day time frame.

Gary - Agreed. Certainly only in extreme circumstances and defiantly still a severe thunderstorm warning. The NWS (most often by words in a special advisory) issues a "tornado emergency" in urban areas that are seeing a confirmed tornado, so they do make special circumstances. I'm unsure how a similar thing would degrade the public confidence of regular severe thunderstorm warnings, but I wonder if such a thing has been bounced around in the past. Increasing the threshold of SVR warnings would help too (as was the case a few years ago with the hail experiment) Just thinking off the top of my head I suppose.
Hope all is well.

------------

Ed,

Everything is great! 

Gary

Notes et al ... I posted this on Monday night. I guess it got lost in the emotional disturbances that followed. :)

Here is my July 4th week forecast. I'm basing it on a 56-day cycle, thinking that the overall pattern will remain the same but the weakening/relaxing of the jet stream will lengthen the cycle from the current 52-54 days. (After following this blog and reading Gary's and Scott's comments since October, I'm a believer in a cycle that flexes by a couple of days over time while maintaining the same overall "shape").

I also took into account that the high/low temperature volatility (distance from average to record) dampens by 82/75% from early May to early July. The rainfall also historically reduces by 82% over the same period of time.

Based on those assumptions, these are the numbers calculated in my Excel spreadsheet:

          high low precip
29-Jun 84   56    0.00
30-Jun 89   65    0.00
1-Jul    90   72    0.00
2-Jul    84   71    0.02
3-Jul    88   66    0.01
4-Jul    83   66    0.26
5-Jul    81   60    0.30

The forecast above is totally statistical (interpolations of May 4-10) and not meteorological in nature. If by chance it verifies, it would be wonderful weather for that time of year, IMO, as this is about 2.5 degrees below normal.

Finally, I didn't post any probability of precip as I'm not sure why it is of value in validation. Either it rains what you forecast or it doesn't.

Gary I was watching you guys all night that night. and either you or Jeremy said..while there were no tornado warnings in affect though we had a TORNADO WATCH. You said something along the lines of "if your watching this you might just take the family down to the basement while your watching this until the storm passes" again not word for word. you, or it might have been Jeremy at that point but you and the team emphasized the potency and dangerousness of the storm so don't listen to that lady who watched ahem the guy who's on channel 2 plus 6 minus 4.. just trying to abide by the rules now....;) YOU DID A WONDERFUL JOB BOTTOM LINE. every person I meet I tell...NOOO don't watch that guy watch gary lezak on NBC....so I am very word  of mouth. and I'm very mouthy so the the problem should be fixed soon! =)

JONATHAN!

********************

Looking back on that night I did mention it is always a good idea(if possible) to watch storm coverage in your basement and hang out when bad weather hits several times.  That way you don't have to worry about making it to the basement in time. Not everyone has a TV in the basement...but the weather radio should work in the basement too.

Jeremy

actually to be completely correct Jeremy and Brett were on at the same time.

Jonathan,
I am sorry about you losing your job yesterday. :(

I think that every household in this area needs a weather radio with an alert.

Kristi

Thanks Kristi,
I'm strugglin...But like I said I know it's nothing compared to what your going through.

Jeremy, Yeah I remember you saying that, You did say it and it was a good idea so that right there makes you better than anybody else.

I have found it intresting how people don't think that they need a weather radio or anything that is recomended that you have for your saftey until your life is on the line and disaster strikes. In the case of this woman, I agree with you Gary and you too 4caster.

Here's my part.

June 29th,  Partly cloudy.  Hi 92, Lo 68.  10% precip
June 30th,  Thunderstorms w/heavy rain in aft.  Hi 95, Lo 67, 60% precip
July 1st,    Thunderstorms continue.  1.69" possible, 3" over last 24 hrs.  Hi 94, Lo 67, 80% precip
July 2nd,  Partly cloudy with strong s winds, Hi 94, Lo 66, 10% precip
July 3rd, Thundershowers.  Hi 95, Lo 67.  Precip 80%
July 4th, Thundershowers.  Hi 92, Lo 66, Precip 80%
July 5th, Chance of thunderstorms as a cold front moves in, Hi 79  Lo 67. 30% precip

I have both a TV and weather radio in my basement.  In fact, my room is in the basement.

Kristi

Forgot the precip amounts  :(

29   0
30   .85
1    .85
2    0
3    .58
4    .54 (sorry)
5    .02

I don't have a basement...But I have a weather radio... and a tv

I don't use the weather radio though because I'm smarter than it...

Looks like about every point has been covered in response to the letter to the editor, but I will add my two cents' worth anyway.

Every meteorologist who is on TV I believe has one motivation which underlies all others: and that is to help save lives. While I believe that Gary's team is the best in the business, the other stations' mets have the same desire.

It is refreshing to know that they are there doing their best 24/7...but I will not once place the ultimate responsibility for my family's safety at their feet. My wife gets SO annoyed with me when bad weather is in the area...I am constantly hitting the web, channel-surfing (sorry Gary, but the more information the better), going outside to observe, you name it. When the weather is forecast to be bad, or if my instincts tell me so, I am sleeping with one eye open, if at all.

I feel bad for those whose property was damaged in the storm...thank God there was no loss of life up here. But even if there HAD been...it wouldn't be Gary's, Brett's, or Jeremy's fault...or the fault of any of the other guys.

Here's hoping the remainder of the season remains calm...however doubtful that may be.

I've been in the fireworks business for 27 years in Riverside, MO.  I spend 2 weeks of each summer, day and night there.  I can tell you without using maps or fancy stuff, it's always very windy during the day, to the point where when you take a shower, dust comes from places you didn't know you had.
I hardly ever remember a day when it was below 90', unless it rained, and averages 92 degrees with quite a few summers where the average was closer to 100.  
Thoughts would believe a wet and cool spring should bring the same for a summer and I totally disagree to a point.
It's obvious, if the GFS are correct, we'll be in a drier patter for the next 10 days, but we're jumping into the 80 degree range.  I do believe we'll have a break, but I don't trust the GFS much more than 7 maybe 10 days out.
Based on my 27 years experience at the fireworks stand, it either rains and storms every 3-4 days, or doesn't rain at all.  One things for sure, it's always windy.
My fireworks stand is Dishonest Don's Fireworks and I'm not trying to plug it, but I just did....sorry

Gary B, it was nice and cool, but not raining before the 4th just last year...the high on Sunday the 1st last year was only 79. It had rained for the last fews days before then.

We got the preliminary report on my mom...  She has cancer.  We know it is non small cell cancer.  We don't know the point of origin tho.  She has a spot in her left lung plus the enlarged lymph node.  The PET also showed a spot in her abdomen.  Mom has to have a colonoscopy and meet with the oncologist.  I am OK, everyone.  I have already shed enough tears in the past 17 days.  I told her that we are going to fight this.  All of us.  Our support system grows more and more every day.

Kristi

Here's my entry based on climatology, actual weather this winter and spring, LRC, and gut feelings:

6/29:  High 86  Low 64  PoP 00%  Amt .00
6/30:  High 85  Low 63  PoP 00%  Amt .00
7/1:    High 87  Low 66  PoP 20%  Amt .00
7/2:    High 86  Low 66  PoP 30%  Amt .33
7/3:    High 89  Low 69  PoP 40%  Amt .22 (before midnight of 7/4)
7/4:    High 78  Low 56  PoP 70%  Amt .75 (after midnight of 7/4 - over by noon)
7/5:    High 83  Low 62  PoP 00%  Amt .00

MikeL in Topeka

You have some more support here Kristi.. SOO very sorry to hear you have all of this to  deal with.  BIG HUGZ

Gary,
  This lady must not know that tornadoes can and do develop out of severe thunderstorms, and sometimes wihtout warning. Also, she must not have watched you, because you stressed that there would be more severe weather in the early moring AND that that there could be tornadoes, though the risk was low.
      ***Kristi: Very sorry to hear about your Mom. My parayrers are with your family, and I'm sure everyone elses will be too.***
            Roberto

Great blog and responses today.  Getting in late, I don't really have much to add that hasn't already been covered.  

Mark this day.  LOL

Apparntly Chfs327 wants out.

Good Ridences. No more predictions of ice storms from him.

it would have been funnier if he spelled suICIDE right...
Kristi I'm really sorry what your going through I'll say prayers for your family tonight.

Lol Hail

Anyway This weekend I might be finally go fishing. But with my bros. Graduation I might just have to stay and be bored. Oh well

Royals did good today sweeping the Tigers again.

Something is trying to develope during the 5-7 day time frame. I dont know if it will tho since the GFS hasnt really done jack diddly in the time frame.

Gary, don't let that letter bother you.  I just recall my wife saying something about the early thunderstorms.  I told her, based on info from you and your staffers, that the worst ones were still to come.  

By the way, my three- and four-year-old sons will see your dogs and ask which one is Stormy and which one is Breezy.  They love seeing your dogs on TV.  Keep up the great work!

--------------

Thanks, and the stormy part of the pattern is likely due back in late in the month into June.

Gary

Stormdog - been awhile, and may be again, perhaps.  My thoughts on a busy severe weather season bore out, unfortunately, but from OK-SW-Ern MO and into NC - terrible.  However, for the usual severe wx area - NADA, nothing, and this dry pattern doesn't augur well for Plains chasers.  As for the end of the month, I am not going to counter Gary.  However, one wonders if the severe/active weather will occur in SW MO again, or in NW MO as has happened this season.  If one accepts this theory, then KC should be mostly in the clear, altho one May 2nd episode is enough to wreck your life/day.  I would think for Blue Springs, the pattern would rather leave us dry than otherwise, but then again, I don't know anything!


Later, Dog

Gary,
       I wish HHE had our Feild Day today it was so nice!
        Thanks for coming to HHE once again! I hope it will be warm again tomomorow!
                    icofex

My two cents on Ann's comments in the KC Star:  Her use of overgeneralizations and superlatives indicates that her comments are not worth the paper they are printed on.  She does a great disservice to all TV meteorologists and the hard work they do to inform the public and keep them safe.  If she had watched Gary and his team she may not have written the piece because the points she makes are invalid with respect to NBC 41's storm predictions and coverage from that night.

Great forecast, Gary!  Finally the weather here is catching up to what I had the pleasure of experiencing in North Texas in late March and early April!

YES!!...Finally a break in the precipitation!!...Now I can get the garden tilled...I am still waiting for severe thunderstorms to move through Marceline yet...We have had some strong storms, but nothing close to severe limits, just heavy rain...I think we have had 1 line of severe thunderstorms move through the area a few weeks ago, with 1" hail, and extremely HEAVY rain!...Nothing severe since then. I no you guys are probably wondering why I am wishing for severe weather, but I am 17, and I love watching heavy wind and rain, and large hail. I have only seen 1 tornado, and I hope to see some more, hopefully they are in rural areas, I am not wishing anything on anyone.

About the tornado warning segment in the KC Star. I do not think that should have even been put in there.




Alex from Marceline

chfs should not of said that she brook like 12 rulez

I though Chfs327 Closed his account. I guess not.

His remark at Me is Uncalled for and I will not sink low to his level to start name calling.

obviously chfs327 is not mature enough to be included in an adult conversation

Im pretty sure he isnt either Weathermanjim.  but only time will tell

it is just ashame when peoples lives are that unhappy, but I digress and move on, is anybody elses forecast and 7 day is to big for the window?

Mine isnt. The 7 day looks great

I haven't blogged in a while but I read all the comments every day.  I just need to comment tonight
Kristie, my thoughts and prayers are with you.  I understand how hard this can be as I went through it many years ago (not as close together as your parents but close enough).  But you sound like you have great support around you.  Just make sure you take advantage of it and don't try to be "too" strong.  It only hurts you.  Voice of experience.
Weather Team, remember that for every one that complains there are hundreds that appreciate all you do.  People seem to forget that meteorologists aren't responsible for the weather-you can't change it... you just do your very best to let us know what you THINK will happen.  Someday, maybe you will be able to KNOW but the science isn't there yet.  Keep working on the LRC and I'll bet you'll get closer and closer.  But you know, I really think that knowing would take all the fun out of it!  

Mary

BTW while im here i might as well give my prediction. for the week of July 4th.

6/29  Sunny with a High of 87F
6/30 Cloudy with Rain showers. high of 83F .23 Inches of rain
7/1 Sunny with a high of 84F
7/2 cloudy with a high of 79F
7/3 Rain. High of 77F Rain fall .76
7/4 Cool and sunny High 79F
7/5 Cloudy with a high of 83F

Gary and bloggers:
    Im kinda behind probably a lot of people here but I am going to buy a home weather station, and I was wondering if anyone had any advie on what the best one was. I like the Oregon Scientific WMR-200. I'm looking to have temp/wind/humidity/pressure and any other features, preferably under $400.
Thanks!
           Roberto

What is with the 7 day forecast now showing lots of rain chances, I thought we were supposed to be dry for the next 7-10 days?

I don't think that's the right 7 day  forecast. It look's like an old one.

If the contest is open to anyone i would like to throw my two cents in please:
My order will be Date, High Low, POP, Amount

6/29 86 67 0%
6/30 90 70 40% 0.35
7/1  85 68 30% 0.10
7/2 80 63 30% 0.10
7/3 83 65 60% 0.45
7/4 88 69 40% 0.25
7/5 87 66 30% 0.10

How will be judging the POP since they are known to change a couple of times a day?
And we are using KCI?