(We are having serious problems with the weather on our web page. The 7 day forecast is very old, and we will try to get the problem fixed ASAP. Please watch NBC Action News for the latest forecast)
Good morning bloggers,
It's FRIDAY! And, we announce the winner or the Jr. Meteorologist Contest at 5 PM tonight, on NBC Action News. Our special summer forecast will be on Monday night at 10 PM and we are using the LRC to help us make this summer forecast.
The LRC (Lezak's Recurring Cycle) sets up in October and early November and then begins cycling. We believe this year is in a 50 to 54 day cycle. Every year's weather pattern is unique. And, the pattern continues through the fall, winter, and through August, according to my theory, before setting up into a brand new pattern next October. This year has been relatively easy to show one of the two main aspects of my theory, which is the position of "long term" longwave troughs and ridges. One "long term" longwave trough" exists and extends from southern Missouri north to near International Falls, MN and into Canada. This mean trough returns at regular times during the 50-54 day cycle. It is not visible on the map below, as the pattern is in transition back to the more energetic part of the pattern which will return soon.
This map, below, shows a huge upper level ridge centered over California by tonight. This is going to create some heat out west and some of that warmth will be spreading our way because the jet stream is now north of us:
There has been less debate than in any other year, when discussing this part of the LRC, the position of the "long term" longwaves. The severe weather has consistantly been happening in the same spots all season long as a result of the "long term" longwave trough just east of Kansas City. I will be talking about this and showing it during our special segment on Monday night. Look below at the forecast from last nights GFS valid Tuesday night:
A very strong jet stream is forecast to develop, right on schedule (more on this schedule in just a second), by early next week over the eastern Pacific Ocean. This energy is going to blast into the west coast and gradually fall into the "long term" longwave trough position just east of Kansas City once again. As it moves in, there will likely be a series of fronts and storm systems that have enough energy to produce the return of severe weather to our part of the nation later next week.
I said "right on schedule" because this happens regularly through the 50-54 day cycle at predictable times. This is the part of the LRC that has been the most scrutinized, the cycle. Sometime this summer I will work on a presentation to show you the cycles that began in October, and continue today. As summer approached the weather pattern will continue to weaken, but a very weakened LRC will highly likely continue through August. It becomes much tougher to see the weather pattern during the summer, but we are not there yet, and it is so amazingly easy to see that the pattern we are in now is directly related to the winter we all experienced. Which means, there are some more strong cold fronts (late May and June versions) in our near future. But, being this time of the year it almost has to mean severe weather threats and potentially a rather wet weather pattern.
But, for now, it is drying out for at least 5 more days. After Tuesday, we will have to watch and see how each storm and cold front set up. It does appear that it will get very active again soon, and it fits the LRC perfectly. A major split flow will likely develop, late in May and the first part of June, resulting in a wilder weather pattern as we move through the next three weeks. High heights will be forming over the western half of Canada, which has happened in each cycle since the pattern began. So confidence is high. We will be going over all of this tonight on NBC Action News.
Here is something fun to watch. Belinder Elementary 6th graders, in Shawnee, sent this video to me yesterday. The beginning is nice to watch, but you must stay tuned for the "monster" weather auditions during the last part of the video. Here is the link, and thank you kids for sending this in. Next year you have to get it in earlier so you can enter the Jr. Meteorologist contest: http://www.smsd.org/custom/belinder/ShannonWeatherVideo.wmv
Have a great day! I am enjoying this break in the weather. Check out Brett Anthony's blog and some cool satellite images. http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/brett_anthonys_blog/default.aspx
Gary