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What a great way to start the weekend! High temperatures in Kansas City were the warmest of 2008! KCI reached 85 this afternoon and Downtown KC 86. The record for this date is 90 set in 1939 & tied in 1966...so we were at least within shouting distance of the record. The 85 at KCI was the warmest day in over 7 months...dating back to October 6 when it was 86.
A surface cold front is about to switch our winds from the west to the northwest this evening. Behind the front temperatures will be cooler on Sunday, but still in the upper 70s to around 80 in most spots. Sunday will be another dry day to enjoy the numerous activities going on around the region.
Here is the forecast GFS forecast temperature map for 1 p.m. on Sunday.
Notice the temperatures over the Great Lakes on Sunday...some areas will not make it out of the 40s and 50s. One of the reasons for this is an on shore flow with surface winds out of the north-northeast blowing off waters that are still around 36-38 degrees in Lake Superior and Lake Michigan! I clearly remember living in Marquette, MI and how numerous nice Spring days would quickly turn cold with 20+ degree temperature drops just by the wind shifting off the water. It is very nice to live away from the Great Lakes!
Once we complete this weekend the forecast is going to get pretty tricky. A large ULL will form in the western/southwestern U.S. and linger for part/most of this week.
Here is the 18Z GFS 500mb forecast for late Wednesday. Notice the little ridge over Kansas City.
Little disturbances will enter the picture and try to give us a chance of showers and thunderstorms, but as of now the forecast is dry thru Wednesday. I think that as a warm front lifts north into Monday morning a band of showers and thunderstorms will form somewhere over the Midwest. So I wouldn't be shocked to see rain enter the picture in places...but I'll keep it dry for now. These would be elevated thunderstorms as moisture flows up and over the front...while dew points stay fairly low at the surface.
Temperatures will be tricky this week due to the timing of disturbances and associated cloud cover, the position/movement of the ULL, and possible backdoor cold front. Right now I have sort of a middle ground forecast with mainly 80s. I think at least one of these days will probably end up in the 70s and maybe one day makes a run at 87+ before the end of the week. Either way...when the ULL decides to make some progress east it should give us a chance of thunderstorms and that is why there is a chance Thursday-Saturday right now. Another thing you'll notice next week is the increased amount of humidity at times...especially later in the week. If you have outdoor plans this week or for the Memorial Day weekend keep it tuned to our newscasts and WxPlus for the latest weather information and Kansas City's most accurate forecast. Have a great weekend!
Jeremy