Watch NBC Action News HD Monday at 10pm for the long range summer forecast!
Good evening bloggers,
I hope you enjoyed the beautiful weather this weekend! If you were too busy enjoying the weather and missed out on the high temperatures this weekend here you go. Saturday was the warmest day in 2008 with a high of 85 degrees, and Sunday was also fantastic with a high of 77. Both temperatures occurred at KCI.
As I blogged about last night the forecast for the week ahead has several questions and challenges. The same holds true this evening and some of those questions may have a few answers.
Heading into Monday a low pressure area slides just south of Kansas City. With moisture flowing in above the surface a few showers and thunderstorms could develop Monday morning. Best chance within our viewing area of seeing a shower would be areas like Trenton & Chillicothe. Right now I'd put that chance at only about 20%. The best threat of rain lies in eastern Missouri on Monday. Around the metro we'll enjoy another nice day with highs in the 80s.
The same storm that pushes east on Monday will have a secondary low associated with it that will also dive southeast on the northwesterly flow aloft. This second low will help to drag a cold front into the region on Tuesday. Here is a forecast surface map to give you a visual idea of the the systems.
The front that drops south of the region on Tuesday will then stall, become stationary, and likely try to lift north as a warm front by Wednesday or Thursday. With warm/hot and moist air flowing over the front, the result will be a band of clouds and maybe some shower/t-storms. I don't often show this map, but this should give you and idea of the challenge that the front will present. This is the GFS 700mb forecast map for Wednesday. This shows moisture at 700mb...which would likely translate into cloud cover. The band isn't that wide, so if it shifts one way or another the forecast would change quite a bit!
So what does this mean? As of now we are thinking the clouds and possible showers keep temperatures in the low 70s...but if the front moves farther northeast...then highs would be in the 80s. This is the battle that we will face by mid week. The big ULL we talked about in yesterday's blog will likely hang back in the southwest into next weekend. Make sure to stop by the early this week as Gary will discuss the summer forecast and the upcoming weather pattern using the LRC.
Have a great night and make sure to tell your friends and family about our blog and NBC Action News HD.
Jeremy