Good morning bloggers,
It has finally warmed up, but it is still spring for a little more than one more month. What will it be like this summer? We will go into the details in our special summer forecast tonight at 10 PM on NBC Action News. We will have the forecast for July and August based on this year's LRC.
The weather pattern continues to cycle. What is going on during the next 10 days may seem different to many as a blocking pattern is setting up. But, it isn't. I am strongly confident that we are still in the same pattern that set up last October into November. It is cycling every 50 days or so, and if you go back into the pattern you can see it. 100 days ago (two cycles back into the pattern) lines up amazingly with what is "going" to happen in the next 10 days. I say "going" because we already experienced this before in this pattern. The upper low dropping into the west, closing off, and then sitting out there waiting to get kicked out in about a week, already happened in February. This is a great example to show how we are still in the same pattern. I left the maps at work today, but I will try to show you the exact comparison later today or in tomorrow's blog after I scan them in.
This pattern is starting to create some nightmares for weather forecasters. Just look at the forecast for 11 AM this morning (it is amazing how it is dry with these kinds of surface features, but there is just no moisture available yet and we are capped):
Notice, above, the surface low on the KS/MO border south of Kansas City. And, then there is another surface low in northeastern South Dakota. This is a very strange set up, and it is being caused by the developing weather pattern as we will discuss below. But, today, this will allow us to warm up dramatically into the middle 80s.
Now, let's go into the developing and cycling weather pattern. First of all, the map below is the surface forecast for Thursday morning. This shows a stalled front located southwest of Kansas City. Rain & T-Storms are possible northeast of the front, and we seem to be in the right position to see some of these thunderstorms. If rain develops, then the temperature contrast may be from the 50s to lower 60s over northern Missouri, and near 100 over southwestern Kansas. Forecasting the high temperatures later this week will be, and is currently extremely difficult. The high temperature Thursday will be in the 60s if it rains, but it could also be near 80 depending on how the surface sets up.
This surface set up is being created by a developing blocking pattern. But, the block will not last long. And, if you just look back to the middle of February this part of the pattern is directly related to what happened 100 days ago. The upper low closed off over the southwestern Untited States and waited for the pattern to shift and eventually kick it out. The exact same thing is happening during the next 10 days. How it affects the surface weather pattern will decide weather we have any significant rain, or whether the dry spell continues.
The above map shows the block. An upper low is forecast to drop all the way down into Southern California. A ridge pokes up over us. And, a deepening trough develops over the eastern Great Lakes. This will force the front to line up just southwest of Kansas City. And, then the map below shows how the upper low is just sitting over the southwest over the Memorial Day weekend. Look at the dip in the blue line, just north of Minnesota. This will drag a cold front our way and could lead to a wet end of the month. In fact, this is what I expect before this month is over, for a very good chance of it getting wet and cool again. And, the weather pattern cycling according to the LRC, will pick up the upper low as the mean "long term" long wave trough re-establishes itself before the end of the month as well. This will lead to severe thunderstorm chances later in the month as well. What should happen, is a big upper ridge will likely form over Canada by June 1st. This should lead to lower heights over the United States and a wet/stormy pattern in the first half of June.
Have a great start to your week. We will get to your questions as time permits. In the meantime check out Brett Anthony's blog. It snowed somewhere last week and someone from the metro got stuck in it. Plus, this weekend Brett's sand sculpting team took first place in a first of its kind competition for Kansas City. Here's the link, http://community.nbcactionnews.com/blogs/brett_anthonys_blog/default.aspx
Gary