NBC Action Communities

You hit this forecast right on schedule.   We really needed the rain too!!!

Thanks for being the most reliable station in town
Joe

Small hail and torrential rain in La Cygne/ Lots of lightening too! Glad I brought the horses in at 3:00 am!!

Will more rain develop behind this band of showers?

Started with loud thunder but slitley weekening.

Gary:

Good thundery/rainy morning to you sir!!! Been a while-school has been just nuts the past couple of weeks and add to that that it is now camping/fishing season, I have been spending lots of time with the boys at Lone Star Lake so my weather obsession has well, I have been getting some withdrawl LOL!!! For sure, I have only had a chance to look at things in a very cursory manor and my LRC score card is well buried somewhere in my stacks of finals!!! That being said, as usuall, a few random thoughts this morning that I hope make a little sense!!!!

1. The Omega Block: When I first saw that on the modles I thought I was back in my Ancient Greek Class in Graduate School LOL!!

2. The one thing that has amazed me about this LRC is how the cold fronts have always made it through this area. Even in the bland late October and early November we had a few very strong albeit dry cold fronts come through with some lows in the mid 20's. Lawrence benefitted from that as the fronts just made it through here in time for some snow but I think a great example was Tuesday of this week. As late as Saturday, the models were showing some decent heat building in here on Tuesday (mid 80's) with the front well to our North/North East-however, as the pattern has shown, the front did blow through here Tuesday morning. That has just fascinated me all winter and spring. It is the little things that amuse me!!!! LOL

3. With two in mind, this will be an interesting weekend to follow-where will that front really go this weekend. I think the models are showing it lifting well North of here over the next 24 hours and really not comming back through until Monday/Tuesday-but will that really be the case? Climotology would say it should head North and maybe not even come back through but with this pattern...it will be interesting to watch. The GFS I think has the bulk of the rain this weekend to our North along the front-but what if the front sets up about 100 miles further South? I think the models will have a tough tiime figuring out exactly where the front lines up this weekend. Will be fun to watch!!!!

Well, prob. enough rambeling this morning and most likely too much as I have not had the time to really look at the models and surface observations!! Prob. sound more foolish than normal eh!!!! LOL

As always thanks for reading-I really do hate to see this LRC go by the way side as it has been really fun to follow!! Have a great day and a fantastic Holiday weekend-this BLOG is just fantastic beyond words and I really can never say enough how great it is that you, Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff take the time to discuss weather-just awesome!!!

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Bill,

I am ready for next year's LRC.  This spring is strange.  It is so untraditional with very unusual set-ups and today is no exception. 

Thanks for the comments this morning.

Gary

Bill in Lawrence

Just got back a little while ago from picking my daughter up from Project Grad and the lightning display was awesome!  I need to get out more in the dark with thunderstorms.   Bad part is that we haven't gotten much in the way of rain here in LS.   Lots of lightning, some thunder but very little in the way of precip.  My deck isn't even all wet.  We could use some rain as I am seeing cracks in my lawn.  I hope some of this lovely rain will fall here.  Is this the only line of storms and rain this morning?

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There are a few more showers and thunderstorms forming to the southwest.  Let's see if they organize or fall apart.

Gary

Powercast nailed it this morning! Great tool...

Have a great holiday weekend everyone..

JP

It was nice to wake up to a little thunder this morning.  The lawn was starting to dry out.  

Love the new HD graphics.  Makes the radar almost pop off the television screen.

Quick question - we are headed out on vacation starting tomorrow and will be headed to the Upper Penisula of Michigan next Tuesday after visiting some of my husbands family in S. Indiana and S. Ohio.  Any idea on what the weather will be like?  I'm trying to figure out what to pack for us and the kids.  I don't want to overpack but want to be prepared.  

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As of now it looks great in the U.P.!  Highs in the 60s will be likely and as of now dry.

Make sure to watch Karl Bohnak on the NBC station when you are in the U.P.  He is a legend in the U.P.!  That is where I use to work.

Jeremy

WOOHOO!!! More thunderstorms...Is there or will there possibly be some small hail with these storms, or is it just a heavy rain event?

Thank you for all you do...Powercast nailed the forecast!!!...Id already give you an A+ for this forecast!!!!


Keep up the excellent work!!!,

Alex from Marceline

Looking at some automated weather stations, most have the wind out of the SE.

Areas south and east of this line of thunderstorms are in the mid to upper 60s already..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20080522&endTime=-1&duration=0

Good call on this line of thunderstorms in the forecast.  The RUC had it rather nicely as well....

;-)

Temp forecasts look good for you Gary through 18z..hope the warm air holds off for you.  We will see...

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_bu/.//+sa1_temp+sc+12

Good morning!  ;-)

WOW!  What a storm!  A solid 1.5 hour rampage of lightning and thunder!  Been a very LONG time since a storm like this moved in!  So far, 1.16" of rain has fallen since this morning.  The whole family was up enjoying the show this morning from the skies.  Take care all, Jim in Clinton.

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Jim,

Thanks for the report!  We'll make sure to use it on the shows sometime today!

Jeremy

The KC area are in the hatched areas for the next 8 days for convective discussions per the SPC.

Should be an interesting go.  Gary, we both knew after this dry period we just had we would expect this unsettled time per the LRC...

Isn't it wierd it just keeps working, even when modelitis creeps in?

lol

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Scott,

I have taken the right medication and not had any modelitis.  It is always a battle.   The next 15 days will be quite fascinating.  This weather pattern is weakening, but the LRC continues.  Looking ahead even 5 days is a nightmare on the models.  It changes every time I look at it.

Gary

Quite a storm here in norhern kck. When i left my house for work i had already had 1.15 here at 68th and leavenworth rd. Will see how much more by the time i get home. The nice thing is we really needed the rain. Glad to see it.

-Rodney

Jeremy - Thanks for the information.  We will definitely watch the NBC station when we are in the UP.  My husband's grandmother family is from the UP so we thought we would take the kids up there.  Glad to hear it will be in the 60's and dry.  I had heard it has been very cool up there this spring.  We want to do some small hiking trips to see the waterfalls so I didn't want it to rain on us.  

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You kind of have to watch the NBC station while in the U.P., it's the only station there:)

Jeremy

Gary..quick observation..let me know what you think...

Looking at the surface obs..

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20080522&endTime=-1&duration=0

Look in eastern CO.  Do you see a weak surface low forming?  I am looking at the wind shifts  just east of Denver...

Looking eastward of that I see a developing warm front?  Straight across through KS...a line splitting SLN and HUT..

By wind shifts and temp/dew differences, I think I see this.  Am I crazy?  This would put the surface low quite a bit further south than the surface maps have it and the warm front quite a bit further north?

What do you think?

By Olathe North HS: As of 9:12am .28" of Rain has fallen. (please read it like it was the automated voice on the NOAA Weather Radio)

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Thanks for the report Andrew!

Jeremy

Good morning!

The storm this morning made my 10 week old puppy, Tucker, not want to go out and do his business! I didn't mind, other than having to walk out with him while it was raining and lightning.

Before I left my house at 7:30 near 87th & Antioch in northern Overland Park, I had about .25 in the rain gauge. Hope to see some more when I get home tonight--my ground was getting quite dry, and I was starting to contemplate getting out the hose!

Also got cable yesterday, and found Ch. 41's weather station on the Everest station. Whoo-hoo, I can't wait to go home today and see what it's got on there--I only got a brief look last night as I was exploring all the new channels!

--- Liberty from OP

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Liberty,

Thanks for the post.  Make sure to check out NBC Action WxPlus and let us know what you think.

Jeremy

Anyone noticing radar is showing some slight rotation and a good structure to the storm near the stadium complex right now?

Really heavy rain just came through.  We've got .5" at 151st and Pflumm as of right now.

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Good to hear from you!  Thanks for the total.

Jeremy

Rain has come to a stop here in Clinton.  I have a total of 1.61" since this morning.  The second part of the cell came through about 7:45 and dumped another close to .50" in about a half of an hour.....WHEW!.  Jim in Clinton

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Jim,

Thanks for the update.  We'll pass along the total.

Jeremy

And just as soon as I noticed it that storm is weakening once again. Pulse storms - love them :-)

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Looks like around KC most of the storms are nearing or moving north of I-70.  As the front lifts north this afternoon we'll have to see if a few more storms develop.

Jeremy

Would you believe a brand new 150 gallon stock tank filled up to the brim with just run-off from the barn roof???? We got 1.75" in La Cygne and it came down in buckets.

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Sounds like some very heavy downpours!  Now you have enough moisture to stay dry thru the holiday weekend:)

Jeremy

Rain quit a little while ago.  There was sideways rain, and rain coming up from the ground it looked like! :)   Here just north of Basehor we picked up a quick 1.25".  Lots of lightning and thunder--enough to blow our cable modem I think.
Have a great day!
--Anna

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Anna,

Thanks for sharing your total!  I unhooked the computer when I woke up this morning...just in case.

Jeremy

ahhh A nice LOUD MORNING here in SKCMO...Just what I needed.

I've received an inch and two tenths here at 169 and 108th...  it was wonderful waking to rolling thunder this morning!!

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These were nice storms...no severe hail, wind, or tornadoes!  Although some spots saw a little too much rain.

Jeremy

Only got .40 in the rain gauge at my house southwest of Kingsville, but I will take it.

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A nice total for you.  Maybe some more on the way in the next 3 days.

Jeremy

Sitting out here in Hays,KS this morning. Parameters look to becoming together for a good tornado day out here in W KS for us chasers, and let me tell you, there are tons of them out here.

This is just Day 1 of a string of chaseable severe weather days. No if only those danged storm speeds werent so fast today, wed really have a good day.

I am just PRAYING that we have no more destruction today. I hate seeing that. Keeping them out over the wheat fields would be fantastic! But, IMO, this could be another violent tornado day for western Kansas.

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Keep us posted.  Looks like there will be some action where you are at by this afternoon.  Hopefully the tornadoes stay over open fields so the chasers and property owners are happy.

Jeremy

Good Morning Jeremy, What a storm.  I love Storms, I'm about as bad as Gary! lol
Here in Farley, MO we got 2.1 inches of rain.  My husband and I argued all day yesterday about if he should water the garden.  So this morning I asked him if his garden died due to lack of water......lol.  Anyways have a great day, and keep giving those great forecasts...Action 41 is the best.....

Vickie

Good morning, Jeremy...

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Why couldn't I be off work today?  I would have gone chasing with Sean!

Jeremy

In the 6 am radar image, there is a little hook or cove, just to the right of the "E" in Olathe. What is that? To an untrained eye it looks like a hook echo. What's the difference?

Good work on the forecast, gents.

Mike

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Just seeing a hook doesn't equal a tornado(as you know).  That is why when we see radar signatures that look odd or ominous we use the other capabilities of the radars.  For a hook we look for the velocity in relation to the radar.  A green and red pixel next to each along with a hook in the reflectivity gives us a very good idea that there is rotation with the storm.  This is generally the thought process when a hook is indicated on the radar.  Generally we try to track cells before the hook appears.

Jeremy

Adam,

I would have bet a bit further south for you, but you are in the right neck of the woods...

What's the word for tomorrow in KC?  We have field day at school **** A chance for rain & thunder after 2pm.   Brett

Scott,

I would love yours(or Jeremy's)input on today's target spot. Have you spent anytime looking at it at all?

I am considering moving down towards Garden City, as the dryline seems to be parked a little farther west than the models were progging. However, I dont want to get caught to far south and then have to literally FLY after them. Id rather stay farther north and reacct as the come my way.

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What about being in Scott City:)  Actually that looks like a good place in my opinion.  Gives you a lot of options once development takes place.

Jeremy

I got about .1" out here in Greenwood.

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Looks like you had one of the lower totals for areas that saw rain.

Jeremy

Adam, I'm jealous of you right now.  Today is just another day I have missed out on this year.  I've chased what were supposed to be good days that busted and have missed the others.  Those darn responsibilities (work) always seem to get in the way.  I know there aren't a lot of severe storm fans out there but there has to be others out there that are as frustrated as I am.  Time is running out on our chase season.  It would be nice to see more than the run of the mill storms near the metro area sometime soon.  (as long as it stays out in the fields some where)

1.72 inches @ 65th & State Ave.... not too shabby

I'm off to pick up the hubby. yaaaaaay  he's free from the hospital.. cya all soon

Stacy N the gang

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Stacy,

Thanks for the report!  Glad to hear all is well!

Jeremy

Thanks Jeremy me too.. its been a long week.

Where I live in Leavenworth, near 4th & Limit Streets, I found 3.50" of rain in my gauge this morning! Since we haven't had any rain to speak of in the past 9 or 10 days, I know every drop of water in there was from this morning's storm. It seems high to me, especially compared with some of the other regional totals, but it was definitely a ton of rain.

Leavenworth - 3.50" of Rain

-Ryan in LV