NBC Action Communities

I am out of town down in Lebanon...We want to come home today but when would be the best driving time between here and there?

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Hard to pin down an exact time since the storms will be scattered around.  Maybe late this afternoon into the early evening?

Jeremy

Sorry Jeremy.  Do you mean that the storms will be worse late this evening?  ( not necessarily severe )

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Hard to pinpoint a time...but late this afternoon or evening the disturbance should move away and allow for some sun and dry time.  Tonight we need to watch and see if an MCS forms to our northwest and what direction that moves.  Lots to think about:)

Jeremy

Thank you for your help! :)

Jeremy,

What do you think the rainfall amounts will be in the KC metro area on Monday & Tuesday?? Mainly the PV, Fairway, RP, & Plaza area?? ************* Anywhere from 1-4"+. A wide range...but some areas are going to see a lot of rain. Jeremy

Am I seeing thsi right? We are in a moderate risk??? ********** That moderate risk is somewhat surprising. But we are analyzing the new data and will add some thoughts in about an hour or two. Jeremy

Ok, let me know what you think as we have alerted some people at the hospital (I am at work) just to be aware.

Ok. Apparntly we are under a Moderate risk. Which is fine because Olathe doesnt seem to be under the Moderate risk at this point. A 12 mile shift SSW would be fine but ohh well.

Also the Flash flood Watch holds everyone North of 1-70. so expect them to get pounded the most.

Like you Jeremy I think it is too early to call a Moderate Risk for today when the storms wont develope till later and that well were under a Moderate risk.

Overall today looks Busy. In the Last Blog Post I told everyone that if it shifts toward us then it would be a busy day and apparntly its going to be.

Here is what the SPC Said.

...KS/NEB/MO/IA...
  A LARGE COMPLEX OF HIGH-BASED CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED HEAT BURSTS
  HAVE BEEN AFFECTING PARTS OF OK/KS OVERNIGHT.  THIS ACTIVITY HAS
  DISRUPTED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN INTO KS.  NEVERTHELESS...PRESENT
  INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BECOME
  ESTABLISHED OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
  DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG.
  SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
  SURFACE DRY/TROUGH LINE AND PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO THE MOIST AXIS
  THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.  VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /SUCH
  AS SEEN ON 12Z AMA SOUNDING/ AND INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW/DEEP
  LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AFTER 21Z WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE
  OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW TORNADOES.  STORMS
  ARE EXPECTED TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A LINEAR MCS DURING THE EVENING
  AND ACCELERATE EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN KS AND SOUTHEAST
  NEB...EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST MO AND SOUTHWEST IA AFTER
  MIDNIGHT.  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
  THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

The New Outlook from the SPC will come at 11:30. Lets see if the Moderate risk has shifted.

Hail and wind looks to be the big threat with the moderate risk area near us.  I think that is why it was put there, looking at the probability graphics.

Right now it looks quiet.  The thunderstorms aren't that impressive right now.  Who knows what today will bring?  It is humid outside tho.

Kristi

I think we could hit 90 today. The sun has been out at my house almost all morning it seems like(woke up@ 9:40). It is already 80 degrees and very,very,humid. We've got at least 5 hours of heating left(depending on clouds) and should get into the upper 80's in my opinion.

It is ridiculously humid today! I don't remember the last time dew points were in the 70s, let alone 75!! Our dew point has been creeping up all morning, it started out at 70 and is now up to 75. It is almost uncomfortable to go outside, especially now that the temperature is into the 80s. It almost feels like it has to rain today. I hope that if it does rain, it will hold off until this evening becuase I have my graduation party this afternoon!

David

There is a nice cluster of thunderstorms North and East of St. Louis...They better watch out for flash flooding there.

Yesterday turned out to be a very nice day across the region, it warmed up enough to make me decide to go fishing...I caught a 4 pounder, a 3.5 pounder, and 2 other good sized bass. I am hoping to go out today, and with the warm front pushing through, should keep the bass biting. I think tomorrow will be a very good fishing day until high pressure sets in after the cold front moves through, making them go lockjaw.

I cant wait for the storms, and heavy rain.


Alex from Marceline

No offense, but since I have patients and WyCo is in the mod risk area it appears, I am going by the SPC and Jeremy, and no one else's opinion. Again no offense to otehrs .

there's not much of a CU field developing over our area. there's one starting to develop up near st Joseph but right now i'd say until that CU field starts to develop we're in no immediate threat of any kind