Good afternoon bloggers,
The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region in a moderate risk. I will explain what is happening below:
It has been a wild few days through the plains. We will be showing more of the tornado footage this week on NBC Action News, so be sure to watch us for some of the more dramatic videos that have been shot. Yesterday, alone, was fascinating watching that hog farm get blown away by the slow moving tornado in northern Oklahoma. So look for this later this week.
All of the tornadoes has everyones attention. So, the moderate risk will make you take a double take today. A weak disturbance is moving by this afternoon. A twisting area of thunderstorms approached us from the southwest and then fell apart as it moved into the Kansas City metro area a couple of hours ago. We will likely be on the back side of this disturbance, which should supress any thunderstorm threat today. So, where will the thunderstorms form then? Look below at the forecast map for 7 PM this evening.
The warm front that was south of us for days, is finally gone. It dissipated and is no longer on the map. Thunderstorms will form where the moisture is converging. This moisture convergence occurs along wind shift lines, or fronts. By 7 PM tonight, there is a sagging cold front moving very slowly our way, and there is a new surface low developing over Colorado. Thunderstorms will likely form near these boundaries this evening. And, then conditions are very favorable for forming MCS activity (Mesoscale Convective System). And, not just one. The front is forecast to be sagging into our local area and then will hang around through Tuesday. North of the front it could be in the 40s. That's right 40s, most likely in Nebraska and northern Kansas by Tuesday. Two to four of these MCS's will be likely with each having the capability of producing up to 3 to 4 inches of rain. So, some spots may get way too much rain with flooding becoming a serious problem early this week.
The severe threat is there, but at this moment it seems most likely for severe thunderstorms way out west this evening, and then our threat would be sometime overnight as the MCS evolves and heads our way. We will continue monitoring the situation closely, but right now with all of the surface convergence out of our local area, the threat of severe thunderstorms is quite low until much later on.
Jeremy Nelson will keep you updated all day and night as this threat moves our way. We will answer your questions as time allows. Have a great holiday, and stay tuned to NBC Action News, and we'll keep you advised on this developing stormy pattern.
Gary