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Jeremy,
Are we capped today, and why hasn't a CU field developed over are area like it has everywhere else. thanks.

Jonathan

This watch map is a perfect example of what I find so frustrating, being a severe weather lover.  There are so many times when there truly is severe weather all around us and somehow, some way, we manage to miss everything but the dying storms and their clouds.  Hopefully tonight will be different.  ~ Dave

***********************

Personally I'd rather not have severe weather occur at night when people are sleeping.  I know weather lovers want something exciting to happen, but hopefully we just see something like yesterday morning when there were really no severe weather reports.

Jeremy

Jeremy,
I agree with you 110%, no severe weather at night when we are sleeping, one people are caught off gaurd and two you cant see anything coming, heaven forbid.
As much I dont want severe weather anytime of the day, keep it away at night.

Also, do you think we will have a high potential for tornadoes being that we have not been included in any of the watches? I live in Warrensburg, two miles from Whiteman AFB and we seem to be on the tip of the watch to our south and a ways from the ones to our north and west.
thank you :>)

 I went to the pool, it opened today and if was warm w/out a heater: 80* in it! It is sticky, I've opened my window for 1hr and now all my close is sticking to me so mauch that it hurts! So Jeremy, when do you expect a whatch to be issued? Byan in Shawnee!

P.S. About when do you think t-storms will start forming?

alright I'm going to take a nap. My allergies are beginning to kill me now and I feel like Cow Dung.. rotting in the heat.. Good night for now all.

Boy Matt I totally agree with your last people.

Well duh and then I post that! LOL I meant Matt, I agree with your last post!!!!

Keep those watches and warnings coming!!!

For what it is worth, it is bad netiquette to point out people's grammar and spelling.  

Kristi

"I highly recommend having your weather radio on before heading to bed tonight"

THAT kind of statement is what is so helpful about this blog. Thanks, Jeremy!

Got a call from my mother up in Iowa.  There was a tornado just outside of our town up in Northeast Iowa.  The town eight miles away, Parkersburg got hit pretty hard.  

******************

Hopefully everyone is okay!  The velocity on the radar looked impressive in Iowa!

Jeremy

Latest NAM shows Kansas City areas N of I-70 getting 1" of rain with areas south in a 2" band.

Jeremy, why is the forecast in the star so different than what's posted here? Hope my spellin' and grammer was good nuff for ya all! :>)

*******************

Gary usually does the Star forecast.  I think the 59 temp was to highlight that fact of how cool it may get during the day on Tuesday.  And that does look very realistic.

Jeremy

Accually the latest info shows KCarea getting a combined total of 3-5 inches of rain.

*******************

Someone will get a lot of rain very close to KC...where is the big question.

Jeremy

Hey Guys,

What model(s) are ingested into your "powercast"?  It seems to have some striking similarities to the 4km WRF...is it simply a smoothed version of the WRF output?

*******************

Powercast can be altered depending on what model we think is performing best.  Right now powercast is initialized off the GFS.  I think Powercast also uses the UW-NMS.  The person that created the NMS (Greg Tripoli) was my Mesoscale Meteorology professor.  Below is the link to check it out.   

http://mocha.aos.wisc.edu/

Jeremy

I'm having difficulty reading the banner currently (6:15 pm, Sunday) running on the top of the TV screen!  I can clearly read the counties affected, but the warning or watch is in a dark blue color which literally sinks into the black background of the banner, rendering it almost invisible, at least on TVs that work off an antennae rather than cable.  Help!  Thanks!

******************

On NBC?  I'm looking at it right now and it seems fine.  Or are you talking about WxPlus?

Jeremy

Wow, Jeremy.  I don't think I've ever heard any of you use such strong language regarding a storm in a post.  I have to admit that I'm a little worried.  However, my weather radio is set and ready to go if we need it!

BTW, it's been a great day!  I haven't been able to pull the kids out of the pool all day!  They even refused to come inside for dinner and I decided to let them eat poolside.  LOL!

******************

I just wanted to make the point clear that an MCS is possible tonight and if it occurs strong winds may accompany it.  Wasn't trying to scare anyone...

Today has been perfect if you like warm and humid weather!

Jeremy

I should clarify.  I do want severe weather, but I don't want severe weather at night, although that seems to be quite the common occurence around here.  Far more common than afternoon severe storms.  I was simply pointing out how it's so infrequent that we are in the area where storms are developing, instead of the location where they go after developing.  I haven't checked statistics to prove this point, but after living in the area for over three decades it's my perception.

Jeremy,   just the mention of severe weather has me sprouting feathers and laying eggs

I agree with Betty, it is hard to see what kind of watch that it is--it really does blend into the background.  I have Directv if that makes a difference.

****************

NBC or WxPlus?

Jeremy

I don't think Jeremy should have to mention to us to keep our weather radios on.  They should be on 24/7.  I admit I sometimes turn mine off during the day since I can keep in tune with what's going on.  But I do keep it on at night.

********************

A large tornado has produced a lot of damage in northeast Iowa.  It hit around Waterloo, IA.  You can watch coverage here...

http://www.kcrg.com/news/streaming/10476432.html?video=pop&t=a

It is NBC.

Ok, I am having a problem with the banner at the top of tv and I have DirectTV. It's the NBC station.

Update from my mother.  The tornado that hit Parkersburg Iowa was supposedly and F5 from early indications.  It stayed on the ground from Parkersburg to my hometown of New Hartford (8 miles) caught the north edge of town but somewhat went back up in the sky.  

My mother said power is out in New Hartford, and trees down everywhere.  She said it was just like they say, very loud like a train (and we have train tracks behind our house).  There are lots of rescue squads in Parkersburg and in some areas around New Hartford.  Some home are just gone.

New Hartford is 20 miles west of Waterloo Cedar Falls which Jeremy mentioned.

Ok, my problem is that it's cut in half. It's like it's too far to the top on top of the problem the type of watch is impossible to read. I didn't even know there was a watch out for the viewing area.

Ok, sorry to keep posting, but I'm guessing the watch out is the "flash flood watch". Still, it's impossible to read-need's to be a different color!

So since you are thinking we may get a bow echo out of this, would we be looking at more of a straightline wind issues than a tornado threat?  Just curious...if anyone has heard me say it before I want nothing more than to AVOID spending the night with my in-laws...lol.  

Ther issuing mesoscale discutions like crazy, here is the latest one. . . . . http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1033.html    As the storms ar drawing closer, the metro will probably get one, when do you think Jeremy? Byan.

I'm on basic cable and can barely make out what the warning is.  Bad color choice.

Looks like those storms out west are heading this way now.

******************

They are moving towards Kansas City.  I would expect a new watch by the SPC within an hour.

Jeremy

Jeremy,
   Everyone is talking about the "Flash Flood Watch" text in royal blue on your weather banner on NBC, not WxPlus. I was able to read it, (Barely!). Maybe a white color would be better!? There are still tornado warnings out west. The Hazardous weather outlook says NW of 1-35 for Severe wx tnight. Do you think it will includ areas south and east of the I-35 corridor. Thanks!

********************

I think severe weather is possible around the metro tonight.  It will depend on how the line of storms to the west evolves.

Jeremy

I think that heavy rain is the big threat.  We may have some hail and wind.  It's hard to say how bad the hail and wind will be.  I don't think that tornadoes will be an issue here in the immediate metro area.

Kristi  

I popped in to see the weather for tomorrow since we had some plans to work on the outside of the house.  When I saw your post Jeremy about the potential for severe weather tonight and your note to turn on your weather radios I ran out to Price Chopper and got my Midland weather radio!  After the tornados in our area last month I do not want to take any chances!  I am guessing we won't be able to work on the house tomorrow...
~Lisa

Looks like I need to make some phone calls to some old neighbors in Iowa tonight.  They're under a tornado warning right now.

New MD: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1034.html

Their taking some nasty damage up there.
Video Coming in
http://www.kcrg.com/news/streaming/10476432.html?video=pop&t=a

Thanks for the link, MrSteve.  I'm scared for my friends in Dubuque County

Just saw video from Iowa. The whole wall cloud seem to be on the ground in the town of Parkersburg. The town has damaged just like Greensburg Kansas. Nothing left.

Dave

Even though it may just be wind and rain, let's not totally downplay it. People tend to brush things off sometimes and the potential, as we saw May 2nd , is always there for something more. SO it pays to be rpepared and be aware just in case.

"MCS will develop from the supercell thunderstorms over Kansas/Nebraska areas.

What is an MCS?

Here is a link to the Waterloo station closest to the Parkersburg area.  It shows some pictures of some new homes that are gone.  I hear the High School is gone, a grocery store and Quick Trip.

http://www.kwwl.com/

wat do people think about tomrrow and our severe weather chancees??

dave616:

It is very bad out there.  I don't know if it is as bad as Greenburg.  Parkersburg has about 1200 people, It didn't sound like the whole town got obliterated but definitely sections.  The tornado cut a path on the ground for many miles hitting my hometown that is 8 miles west, then heading a little farther north skirting the Waterloo Cedar Falls area.

How many miles-per-hour do the storms approaching us seem to be moving?

My weather radio just went off-new Tornado Watch in effect!

Tornado watch till 4 am

Tornado Watch Now In Effect.

Now reports at least 2 people have died in Parkersburg tornado.  Also New Hartford getting hit with 60+ MPH winds as a second storm system has popped up right over them

TORNADO WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WT 369
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
845 PM CDT SUN MAY 25 2008

TORNADO WATCH 369 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CDT FOR THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

MOC001-003-005-013-021-025-033-037-041-047-049-053-061-063-075-
079-081-083-087-089-095-101-107-115-117-121-129-147-159-165-171-
175-177-195-197-211-227-260900-
/O.NEW.KWNS.TO.A.0369.080526T0145Z-080526T0900Z/

MO
.    MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ADAIR                ANDREW              ATCHISON
BATES                BUCHANAN            CALDWELL
CARROLL              CASS                CHARITON
CLAY                 CLINTON             COOPER
DAVIESS              DEKALB              GENTRY
GRUNDY               HARRISON            HENRY
HOLT                 HOWARD              JACKSON
JOHNSON              LAFAYETTE           LINN
LIVINGSTON           MACON               MERCER
NODAWAY              PETTIS              PLATTE
PUTNAM               RANDOLPH            RAY
SALINE               SCHUYLER            SULLIVAN
WORTH

Expires 4 AM, entire metro area and NBC Action Weather Plus viewing area!

KS
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON             ATCHISON            BROWN
BUTLER               CHASE               CHAUTAUQUA
COFFEY               COWLEY              DICKINSON
DONIPHAN             DOUGLAS             ELK
FRANKLIN             GEARY               GREENWOOD
HARPER               HARVEY              JACKSON
JEFFERSON            JOHNSON             KINGMAN
LEAVENWORTH          LINN                LYON
MARION               MCPHERSON           MIAMI
MORRIS               OSAGE               RENO
RICE                 SEDGWICK            SHAWNEE
SUMNER               WABAUNSEE           WILSON
WOODSON              WYANDOTTE

Anyone know what a MCS is?

My feeling hasnt passed. This Squall line will do some damage. My backyard has 4 trees. I expect one to have damage to it.

In the Words of Al Michaels. And We are under away in Kansas city

If we have any tornadoes, it will be quick spin ups like the early morning of May 2nd.  I think that heavy rain followed by wind and hail will be the main threats.

I would definitely leave the weather radio on even if it goes off multiple times.

Kristi

MCS = Mesoscale Convective System

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mesoscale_convective_system

MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) - a complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more. MCSs may be round or linear in shape, and include systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, and MCCs (among others). MCS often is used to describe a cluster of thunderstorms that does not satisfy the size, shape, or duration criteria of an MCC.

Im Getting my Weather Radio and Plugging it in. I have a old 1996 Weather radio so I get all the counties in the metro.

Im Getting my Weather Radio and Plugging it in. I have a old 1996 Weather radio so I get all the counties in the metro.

Thank You bookemdano!

MCS = Mesoscale Convective system, basically a cluster of storms.

These storms out west seem weak as of now but I do expect some intensification to occur as they continue our way.

More storms tomorrow, these may be more super cellular for our area.

The Storms tomorrow will probabily be the same situation that we had May 1st I believe was the date. Most of the Tornado activity expected to be west of the KC metro area.

I got a New Laptop today thats why I wasnt on alot but now I am.

*YaWn* Good Morning Everyone...wait...oh..well whatever. I woke up now. I see they finally put us under one of those tornado watch thingies...that's pretty exciting. Looks like the strongest storms that just went through salina are turning SE. I hope I don't get missed again.

do all of the price choppers have weather radios or only specific ones? Thinking I might want to go out and get one tonight. What time do we think these storms are going to hit the metro?

also how much do they cost?

So how bad do you think it will get?  LV, what is your opinion?  I know we are under a tornado watch...kinda a duh thing huh?  I am one of the scaredy cats.  I almost wanna go stay at my parent cuz I dont have a basement.

I don't know - these storms out west moving towards KC are pretty week right now. Unless they organize soon - I think our severe weather threat is pretty much 0%

30 bucks mark

ok.. my eyes may be playing games on me again... on wunderground..I'm seeing a real small line developing ahead of that massive line.  what is that?

bewild...I am in no way frightened in one way....

Hail, go back to bed

Bewild I am in the same boat as you.  I guess for right now I'll just wait and see... I'm annoyed that we have a tornado watch, I was hoping for just a severe thunderstorm watch instead if anything....

Jeri...I thought you liked my presence...I am insulted.

FairwayMed, according to this station's web site, the radios are $29.99.
http://www.nbcactionnews.com/content/weatherradio/default.aspx
They are available at all Price Choppers in the area.

I just looked at the radar and the strongest storms were turning SE away from the metro...that's what it looks like at the moment..now worry is a useless emotion so if you just look at the radar and see what I just told you you'll see that there is nothing to worry about. Yes there is a possibility another storm could form but you can't do anything about it so just take it as it comes.

Jeri do you see what I see?  If you see it I'll know I haven't lost all my marbles YET!!

Hail, you know what they call people who ignore the watches and warnings?  Victims.  Besides, the probabilities refer to the severe weather hitting within 25 miles of a point, and a watch means conditions are favorable.  

We're still waiting for our roof to be repaired from those "hit-or-miss things".

FairwayMed, I have the Price Chopper weather radio and it works great.  I bought it last year.  They are well worth the money.  If you don't have one, go get one now!

Hail, you say when you are asleep nothing happens

That was weatherwise, of course..no insult dear

Hail, I agree, go back to bed

5KCKmartian.

I believe that is called an Outflow which is where the strongest winds of the Squllline thats heading our way.

Storms about 1-2 hours away from hitting metro.

5kckmartins,
Forgot what that line is called, caused by, but if I am not mistaken it will be the gust front and I plan to step outside if it is still on radar to feel that line before it pours.  Have done it before.

also those of you who are scared of tornadoes tonight. I just looked at the probabilites for our Watch

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 40%
Probability of 1 or more strong EF 2-EF5 Tornadoes 20%

it's pretty low risk guys. the main risk is hail and wind.

ohhh.... gotcha jeri

when I'm awake nothing happens either...so either way we're safe Jeri=)

Everyone, just ignore hailjonathan.  He's trying to get you all worked up.  We've got some potentially serious stuff going on and the last thing we need (again) is to have the comments shut off.  

Im not sure what you are seeing Stace

where is scott?

wha??? no I'm not I'm trying to calm everyone down...I dont think there is anything bad at all thats gonna happen?

I knew it.. I have lost em all.. lol..

Alls good tho.. the blog,radar  and 41 team will keep us safe..

Jeremy, it looks like the gust front is well a head of the line of T-storms moving toward KC.  I assume this will undercut the inflow to these storms and continue to decrease their intensity.  What are your thoughts?

Dan.

5kcmartins, I think that is a gust front, outflow from the storms.  

Barbara I assure you I'm trying to do the opposite..I don't see anything really dangerous tonight. and I'm sorry if you took it as I did but I don't I was trying to calm people down I'm sorry.

40%??  Where does it say that?  Ohh that is too much for me. :(

I'm looking at the radar and have a question... is it safe to assume that the main threat tonight is from the storm directly west of us, and not from the one south of that one? They look to be connected by a very teeny tiny little storm band. Could they merge? (I know... rookie questions :-)  

Tomorrow we will see a High risk used in the central Parts of Kansas where Supercells will develope due to strong wind shear and Moderate to Strong Instability.

For us we will see a Moderate risk of severe weather and we will have some tornados around the western part of the viewing area that will march through KC. 3 Tornados will touchdown in the KC Metro area. Thats the bottom line because Chfs327 said so.

I still feel, and this is just me, that while we should not panic or pump this up unnecessarily  , it is also just as bad to play it down to a 0%. There are lurkers who check here to see what everyone's thoughts are, and like the lady who wrote the OpEd piece blaming forecasters for saying there were no tornadoes possible and then she was hit by one, they see everyone downplaying things and figure they can not bother.

While she misinterpreted what was really being said, I think it would be best to hope for nothing but make sure everyone stays alert and prepared for the wrost case scenario. Even staright line winds can cause alot of damage and scare the bejeebers out of someone.

Not good news from the Tornado's in Parkersburg/New Hartford.  Besides the two confirmed dead in Parkersburg, three are confirmed dead outside of New Hartford.  A number of brand new homes wiped out, and appear to be some missing.  The good news from Parkersburg, the grocery store that got hit, everyone had gotten in the coolers and the store collapsed.  They were trapped inside but everyone got out safe, including my mothers next door neighbor.

I apologize for giving so many updates from Iowa, but it boggles my mind that this is where I grew up being devastated.

**************

Sorry to hear the news.  Please keep us updated!

Jeremy

Yes, Hail, you have to realize how scared people can get.  Just the thought of a chance of tornados is going to happen I freak out.  I come here to find out what is going on and hopefully calm me so I would greatly appreciate it if you did refrain from that.  I am glad you apologized to someone for it...I am just trying to get you to understand from my view.  :)

Jeremy can you post a blog about the Tornado watch and statistics of it? Thanks, Juba.

Whew.. then maybe not.  I was wondering that too.  I knew it was something, but my terminology is soo inaccurate at times, I was afraid to call it something ..

Oh for gosh sakes, CHf, give it a dang rest

so you don't want me to calm you down?

**************

Let's all get along tonight...please.

Jeremy

Shoedog...I appreciate the updates from Iowa.  We lived in Peosta (about 12 miles west of Dubuque) for a few years and I still have some friends there.  

If it makes ANYONE feel better we are in the lowest risk tornado watch issued all day long.

I don't get worried until we get a PDS

Ok heres the deal with your tornado watch. Theres nothing to do with Stats about it. It tells you whats going to happen but doesnt get you that. + Hail says Gotcha.

Heres what it says.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
  GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
  AREAS.

DISCUSSION...N CNTRL KS MCS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE E INTO VERY
  UNSTABLE AIR OVER ERN KS/NRN MO.  DEEP SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR
  ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH A THREAT FOR ISOLD TORNADOES
  GIVEN RICH MOISTURE INFLOW.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SQLN
  WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND LATER TONIGHT.  FARTHER S...OTHER
  STORMS/POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG INTERSECTION OF
  OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OF NRN KS MCS WITH EWD-MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW
  EXITING SW KS.  THESE STORMS WILL BE IN SLIGHTLY WEAKER DEEP SHEAR
  RELATIVE TO POINTS FARTHER N.  HOWEVER...GIVEN RICH MOISTURE
  FEED/NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF LLJ...THESE ALSO COULD POSE A THREAT
  FOR ISOLD TORNADOES BEFORE BECOMING UNDERCUT BY COLD POOL.

Wait... Chfs posted again?

Well ill pay that guy 25 dollars if all that is correct. I highly doubt it.

I think that they do need to turn off the posts on this blog, everyone trashes everyone who has an opinion. No wonder new people are afraid of coming on this blog.

NVM My First Post Heres the Stats

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)



Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)



Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (60%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%

there is a nice outflow boundary/gust front headed our way. for those of you who don't know that helps stablize the air and weaken the thunderstorms that move into that air

People don't let this thing get out of control again. Let's just talk about the weather. The band of storms prompting the watch seems to be very weak. The only larger storms in this band are south of Salina.

Here in SW Topeka we had a gust front move through in the last 20 minutes or so and it has dropped the temperature to 70.7 degrees at my house. I think it was still above 80 right beforehand.  You can see the gust front on this Topeka radar image:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=N0R&rid=TWX&loop=no

The rain has still not made it here. It looks to me like we are only going to get rain tonight with not much, if anything, severe.  Mike

new blog.

new blog is up

I hate this weather

Jonathon actually the 2nd lowest risk tornado watch. #358 was a %30 percent risk of 2 or more tornadoes. It was kindof pointless issuing a tornado watch if there was such a low probability. This tornado watch for us looks to be somewhat pointless-maybe a severe storm watch would be better. Just some thoughts.

Outgoing, it's not a matter of these people trashing everybody's opinion.  There are a few people in here who try to predict the gloom and doom and scare the people who are legitimately concerned.  Those are the people who are getting bashed. If we had an ice storm every time one blogger posted we would, Kansas City would have set a record for ice storms this year.
   If you look at Scott's comments towards Gary, they're well thought out and not in a bashing manner.  That's the way we should all agree/disagree.  However, we have people on here who also say while there is a tornado watch, we can ignore it.  That's just ludicrous.  The people who issue the watches have years of experience, more than any of the bloggers here.  They also have data, in addition to the radar, to make their predictions. They may be wrong some times, but I'd rather err on the side of caution.  
   When my parents were kids, my hometown and the whole northeast was told that a hurricane was going out to sea once it reached Virginia.  It didn't.  The result was somewhere between 600 and 1,200 deaths.  Two-hundred people were swept from the beach near our house and into the sea.  The estimated death toll from our town was around 300.  They were told there was not going to be a storm.
  While we most likely won't get a tornado, people should be aware that conditions are right.  We live a couple of miles from where those homes were hit on May 2 in the Kansas City North area.  We're still waiting to have our roof replaced as our many of the people in our neighborhood.
 

Thank you for the advice everyone! My wife and I are the proud new owners of a midland weather radio. Straight from the nearest price chopper from a set up with Gary's face on it.

I think to keep the peace on here we need to not comment on others comments. If you don't like what someone has said than just ignore them. They have a right to comment just as much as the next guy even if it is false as long as it is not bashing anyone.  The most important thing is to not put someone else down.  Even implying someone is not good because lets face it they still know who you mean.  If they are full of BS people will find out soon enough on there own and if they are right more power to them. If there is someone on here trying to get under peoples skins if you just ignore them they will go away if they don't get the rise they are looking for. It takes two to fight so putting the blame on one person when these things get out of hand is not right. I am new to posting on here, been lurking for awhile and these blogs are an excellent source for weather info and I would hate for it to be shut down especially tonight.  So please people leave other commenter's alone.