NBC Action Communities

some stuff carried over

Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Mod (40%)


Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
Low (20%)



Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
High (70%)


Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Mod (30%)



Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (60%)


Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Mod (30%)


Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (>95%


A Gust Front is moving into the metro. 40-60 MPH expected in the next half hour.
Rain falls 1-1:30 hrs.

Sitting here chewing fingers and watching radar, so I can let the teenager still be a teenager and hang with friends, yet buzz him, and get hom home before anything ugly starts.

Here in SW Topeka we had a gust front move through in the last 30 minutes or so and it has dropped the temperature to 70.7 degrees at my house. I think it was still above 80 right beforehand.  You can see the gust front on this Topeka radar image:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?product=N0R&rid=TWX&loop=no

The storms have not made it here yet. It looks to me like we are only going to get mainly heavy rain tonight with not much, if anything, severe.  Mike

thanks for posting that turd..
that should keep people at ease if they keep track of tornado watches. it's a very low risk for tornadoes tornado watch.

him home...not hom home.....see I'm nervous.

Jeremy, can you comment on the NWS statement that the winds associated with this storm complex has the potential for hurricane force winds? Is this with a squall line or wide spread severe weather tonight? I'm terrified of high winds.... causes much damage to home, barns, livestock etc.

Jonathon actually the 2nd lowest risk tornado watch. #358 was a %30 percent risk of 2 or more tornadoes. It was kindof pointless issuing a tornado watch if there was such a low probability. This tornado watch for us looks to be somewhat pointless-maybe a severe storm watch would be better. Just some thoughts.

Suej..it's okay to be nervous but there's only one T-Storm warning on one of the storms that has a chance of holding together when it gets here and I think the tornado threat is low.

Oh so the 40% is actually LOW for a tornado watch?  I did not know that...see I learn something new everytime I come here.  

farm girl. The line has broken up into line segments so I don't think you have to worry about high winds as much as you did before....we'll see in the upcoming hours if it evolves into another solid line but it sorta looks like its falling apart a  little bit.

Low is 40? Oh ok, because it was only 30% when we chased in the hatched area in central KS last Thursday.

Here in Maryville...line of thundershowers passed through around 9.  I was surprised to see the tornado watch hoisted...I would have thought the first round would have stabilized the atmosphere...

Outgoing, it's not a matter of these people trashing everybody's opinion.  There are a few people in here who try to predict the gloom and doom and scare the people who are legitimately concerned.  Those are the people who are getting bashed. If we had an ice storm every time one blogger posted we would, Kansas City would have set a record for ice storms this year.
  If you look at Scott's comments towards Gary, they're well thought out and not in a bashing manner.  That's the way we should all agree/disagree.  However, we have people on here who also say while there is a tornado watch, we can ignore it.  That's just ludicrous.  The people who issue the watches have years of experience, more than any of the bloggers here.  They also have data, in addition to the radar, to make their predictions. They may be wrong some times, but I'd rather err on the side of caution.  
  When my parents were kids, my hometown and the whole northeast was told that a hurricane was going out to sea once it reached Virginia.  It didn't.  The result was somewhere between 600 and 1,200 deaths.  Two-hundred people were swept from the beach near our house and into the sea.  The estimated death toll from our town was around 300.  They were told there was not going to be a storm.
 While we most likely won't get a tornado, people should be aware that conditions are right.  We live a couple of miles from where those homes were hit on May 2 in the Kansas City North area.  We're still waiting to have our roof replaced as our many of the people in our neighborhood.

yeah...40 percent for 2 or more tornadoes is low
what would be high would be 60 or even 70 or more
and then 50 or higher would be high for 1 or more strong EF2-EF5s

I remember on March 12 our probabilities were 95 percent and 70 percent. so trust me we are in good shape.

Auroramama, I believe 40 percent is a high rating.  I have not seen 50 percent unless we're talking about a different percentage.  

i believe tonight will be just good ole summer heave thunderstorms the real fun may come tomrrw

Auroramama, never mind.  Those ratings are the overall area that he's talking about, not the percentage chance of one hitting within 25 miles of an area.  For the latter, 40 percent is kind of high.

Jeri I'm talking about on the tornado watch not on severe convective probabilities.

Matt we're talking about something different.

When we chased last week there was a 30% chance and there were several tornaodes out of that 30% so I don't buy that it is that low.

Iowa was in 80% probability for 2+ tornadoes today. 40% is relatively low-to moderately-low.

On the SPC outlooks 30 percent of tornadoes within 25 miles of a point is HIGH but on a tornado watch probabiliity they are just saying 2 or more tornadoes within the watch not within 25 miles of a point.

oh ok

Jeri that's 30 percent on the SPC Tornado outlook....this is probability of 2 or more tornadoes within our watch box is 40 percent and I'm saying THAT is low.

Lots of people on, posting is slow

please settle down and get back to weather. if you track statistics 40 is actually low that is all they are trying to say.
a blog us meant to be people giving opinions. no one is stating ignore the warning just saying to do over hyped up about something at this moment. Also giving reassurance is okay so if you dont want to hear it ignore it. dont we tell our children that?

Jeri 30% was in the storm outlook, Jonathon and I are talking about he probabilities inside the tornado watch for 2 or more tornadoes. That risk is 40%. There is a 5% risk of a tornado with in 25 miles of a point in the convective outlook.

see this is what I am talking about...very informative and calming.  I have been noticing how the storms are weakening.  Are there supposed to be more forming after that though?  

right now our overall chance of a tornado within 25 miles of a point is 5 percent which is low. and our chance of 2 or more tornadoes within our watch box is 40 percent which  also is fairly low.

I caught that but it takes forever to load posts, thanks

HailJonathan, the storm will do what it's going to do.  That doesn't bother me - it's Mother Nature and we can't control her.  When it comes to being a mom however, when a storm is brewing, only having your teenager under your own roof where you can see him will suffice.  It's a mom thing.  A mom can't be sure her baby chicks are safe unless they're within arm's reach.

YES PROGRESS! I LOVE YOU ALL!. okay okay I'm over it. but yeah I think the line is weakening a little bit

40% I just laid enough eggs for breakfast, not to mention sproutin' a few new feathers

hey all,

Just thought I'd say that the NWS latest discussion says it is very possible for re generation along the squall line later tonight.

I understand Suej :)

Thank you for the advice everyone! My wife and I are the proud new owners of a midland weather radio. Straight from the nearest price chopper from a set up with Gary's face on it.

I think to keep the peace on here we need to not comment on others comments. If you don't like what someone has said than just ignore them. They have a right to comment just as much as the next guy even if it is false as long as it is not bashing anyone.  The most important thing is to not put someone else down.  Even implying someone is not good because lets face it they still know who you mean.  If they are full of BS people will find out soon enough on there own and if they are right more power to them. If there is someone on here trying to get under peoples skins if you just ignore them they will go away if they don't get the rise they are looking for. It takes two to fight so putting the blame on one person when these things get out of hand is not right. I am new to posting on here, been lurking for awhile and these blogs are an excellent source for weather info and I would hate for it to be shut down especially tonight.  So please people leave other commenter's alone.  

Folks, a "storm" is moving into western Shawnee county now - about 10 miles west of me - and I'm not even seeing any lightning. The temp at my house is now 69.3F.  

Radar returns do not look severe to me to the west - looks like mainly an area of moderate to heavy rain.

Looks like the same cooling gust front is about to move through Kansas City...I think this is hurting the warm air inflow ahead of the storms.

I don't believe there is any real tornado threat in the area tonight.  Now tomorrow could be different.  ;)

Mike in SW Topeka

Congratulations FAIRWAY MED or should I call you MARK! HAHAHAHA

AMEN Twisted Sisters

Hail, you do have a sense of humor!  JK  LOL.  But really, is there supposed to be redeveloping after this first set of storms?

Sue I definitely hear you.  That is why I get scared is because I want to make sure my little guy is safe.  He is not a teenager yet but I get the "mama fear" just the same.  :)  Before he came along I thought storms were really neat but now I get scared.  

if anybody lives in Miami or Linn County or along that parallel that storm heading that way out west looks like it's holding together but anywhere north of there looks in pretty good shape.

bewild...so you do or do not think I'm funny;)

I agree, Mike.  The biggest threat is heavy rain followed by wind and hail.  I just don't see a high probability of tornadoes at all.  However, i would have the weather radio on in case of severe weather.

Kristi    

Funny thing about statistics is they don't mean a dang if your house gets destroyed by a Tornado. Stats crack me up... either you have no severe weather or you do. Severe weather makes me nervous it always has. Now I have a 2 year old child and that makes it worse for me. I never know if I should move her down to the basement or not.

Everyone is talking about severe weather tomorrow??? Why are you thinking tomorrow will be worse?

Funny thing about statistics is they don't mean a dang if your house gets destroyed by a Tornado. Stats crack me up... either you have no severe weather or you do. Severe weather makes me nervous it always has. Now I have a 2 year old child and that makes it worse for me. I never know if I should move her down to the basement or not.

Everyone is talking about severe weather tomorrow??? Why are you thinking tomorrow will be worse?

Hail, I thought you were married but you're eiteher sleeping or on the blog. Where is Mrs Hail ? :)

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR CLAY...CLINTON...EASTERN BUCHANAN...
NORTHERN LEAVENWORTH...PLATTE AND SOUTHERN DEKALB COUNTIES UNTIL 1015
PM CDT...

AT 933 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG GUST FRONT ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ST. JOSEPH TO
DEARBORN TO EASTON...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

A SUDDEN AND RAPID INCREASE IN WINDS...GUSTING TO 40 TO 55 MPH ARE
EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THIS GUST FRONT...LASTING NO MORE THAN
A MINUTE OR TWO. THERE ARE NO THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE...SO NO LIGHTNING OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE OBSERVED WITH ITS passage.

.........................can anyone explain this to me as to why there is no storm with this and it only lasting a few min?

hail, I was not being sarcastic.  You actually said things that made me feel better then you made me laugh.  I am such a wussy when it comes to this weather.  My hubby told me that I need to go on a chase to calm my fears about this.

I'll take you chasing some time!

Jeri Mrs hail is right next to me on her laptop.

Nikieis it's called a gust front...cold air that rushed out of the old thunderstorms and it's producing winds from the dying of the old thunderstorms.

on the weather radio, I have already programmed it to my county. When I press the weather button it is constantly talking... then when I press the button again it stops. if I have it on the non talking at the moment will it still beep at me and alert me when something new is coming in? I just dont want to have to listen to the talking while i am sleeping unless there is a new alert. Thanks for any help.

From radar trends, it appears we will probably see about a half inch to an inch of rain tonight. Good news as it is no where near the dire 3" predicted by our GFS model.

Auroramama, just wait until your little guy gets wheels.  Every day is a heart stopper, let alone every snow, every rain, every threat like tonight.  My dad's a ham radio operator and I spent my formative years in the car out watching for bad weather.  Back in the 50's and 60's there was no doppler - only a series of lone hams and their families, sitting on hills looking for rotation against the lightning, radio mic in hand, ready to press the button the civil defense so they could sound the siren.  I've seen too many, narrowly escaped too many, and seen too much destruction.  I have a very healthy fear as well as a fascination with storms.

Mark you just have to put it on alert mode.

Fairway, as long as you have it set on voice and turned on it will alert you.  You can adjust the volume too.

HailJonathan,

thank you.

Fairway...Yes, it will still alert you even if it's not talking.

I feel so crappy. my allergies are KILLING me... i hope this rain will bring me relief

Sure looks based on the latest radar image that the storms are begining to weaken and fall apart as the move into the KC Metro area. Gust Front moved through here about 20 minutes ago and has switched the winds around to the West, and temp has lowered to 76.1.

anytime! i am a weather dictionary. for most things.

storms are actually intensifying to our west by Topeka.

Sue I agree with you again.  I have seen a lot and been caught outside during a tornado and I have the same fear/fascination as you.  Well my little guy has pretty severe autism so I don't know if he will drive some day but knowing him he probably will, he loves to accomplish things quickly and amaze us all. :)  

So what do we think is in store for Cass here?  I am nervous about that cell around Emporia.  

LV I just noticed that...Surprised by that being that it's behind a gust front/outflow boundary.

It is 62.4F here in SW Topeka at my house.  Just light rain falling at the moment.

I see no severe threat from I-70 to the north and very little even to the south except for maybe some hail and straight line winds. Otherwise, should be a good night for sleeping especially if you like the sound of rain.

Sounds like a tornado threat possible tomorrow especially for my area and to the west. Yuck!

I may down in KC tomorrow so I'll wave if I see any of you! ;)

Mike

autism? I have aspergers syndrome...I know it's not exactly the same but I wish you and the little guy the best!

Thanks Hail!  He is only 2, diagnosed at 18 months and he has already made some leaps and bounds.  He has learned about 10 sign language signs to communicate with us now and pays a lot more attention to us.  I'm sorry I had to brag but I am getting way off topic here so I will shush I promise. :)

i dont know...that cell over emporia looks like its holding together nicely...long track, heading due east.

it also looks like something may be trying to converge around lawrence.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=EAX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=39.30688477&lon=-94.92682648&label=Leavenworth,%20KS&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000&centerx=400&centery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999

no prob aurora. I thought it was an amazing feeling when I was first diagnosed...it kinda "explained" a lotta things

There is nothing wrong with bragging about your children!  Keep on bragging :)

sorry if i ruined the margin with that last post...

Ok. Time for bed for me. Now that I have the weather radio I am hoping it doesnt go off so that I get some good sleep tonight. I will be sleeping better knowing that it is there if I do end up needing it. Thanks for all of your help tonight. I really appreciate it. HailJon, say hi to mrs. Hailjon for me. goodnight everyone.

Is Kristi still here?  If so, how are your parents doing and how have you been doing?

g'night Mark

The gust front has fizzled (or appears to have done so) around DeSoto.  I'm wondering if this means the air will be more unstable to the east of that area. Do you guys think this will allow the storms to intensify just before they reach Olathe/Overland Park?

It isn't over yet, the storms out west have the possibility of intensifying and becoming severe as they head our way. The air is just unstable enough to allow thunderstorms to intensify, some of which may become severe.

They are quickly intensifying!

two ouflow boundaries have collided to our south this is the trigger.
KC and south especially the Olathe area, keep a close eye!

Either the blog became liner or I messed up my settings.

No Turd, (may I call you Turd :-) ... long web link caused it. Pvt noted it.

okay guys I feel really sick I'm gonna go to bed, if I show back up don't be surprised butI think i'm going to bed. g'night all.

Turd, it's something with the blog settings.  There should be a wrap on the text, but it's not occurring.

Ok, I got the weather radio from Price Chopper and programmed it like I was instructed to, and there's a tornado watch out, but no lights are showing up on my WR.  Do you think its defective?

Salina, Manhattan,Topeka to Leavenworth and north and west have been cleared from the watch.  Things are beginning to wind down for the night...

Mike

thunder, lightning and a few big, fat drops at 151st and Pflumm.

I take that back...now really raining.

its raining steadily at 65th & State Ave

The best cell right now is between Neosho Rapids and Lebo in NW Coffey county heading for Waverly and Williamsburg with some hail. cdirksen: no, it's not defective. Since you set it up AFTER the watch was issued, nothing will light up.

yeah, i should have shortened the link

those two previously mentioned cells are going to both track right over KC.  the third impulse west between wichita and emporia could possibly clip southern KC area

I thought that it was going to cool off...I'm still at 79 degrees.

Oh great!! Looks like a strong cell heading for La Cygne. I don't need anymore rain.... got standing puddles everywhere. Poor goat pasture has some standing water along the edge. Just had the counry install a new culvert to drain the water away faster so their pasture doesn't flood as bad, but go figure part of the gravel washed away with Thursday's down pour.

Ugh the radar is messing up on me, looking like it's going backward.  Anything heading towards Belton?  Does NWS have a place where you can view radar?  Rephrase where I can view radar and understand it easily because I don't know a whole lot of what I'm looking at?

Aurora, I use weather underground site. It has very cool tracking features and you can even listen to the NWS statements.
****************

Keep in mind the long links are very friendly to the blog...it does weird things.

Jeremy

np Pvt.
So do you think this is going to train more northeasterly? So far it looks almost like it's been going due east. Hard for me to tell. thoughts?

auroramama


http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=eax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=no

The wind has really picked up here in Olathe

auroramama, this is a great radar.

press animate if desired.

and yes, you are going to get a nice storm in a few minutes.

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EAX&region=b3&lat=38.78279877&lon=-94.54931641&label=Belton%2c%20MO

I use http://weatherplus.premiumweather.com/.  It is a pay site ($12 every 90 days).  While I can easily get all the information for free on a variety of other sites, none of them packages all the information into one single site like this one.

Plus, the radar is very clean and easy to use.

Oh my!  Something hit very close!!!!  It's been a long time since I've jumped that high.

Thank you guys so much!  Nice as in severe...or nice as in nice?  LOL

haha, nice as in nice, lightning thunder, heavy rain, winds maybe up to 40mph,

nonsevere

T-Storm watch

severe tstorm watch

bewild79,
Please PM or email me at simplykristi@simplykristi.com for an update.  I will be happy to give you an update.

Thanks,
Kristi

Small hail now.  Lots of lightning

AccuWeather RadarPlus is good, but its expensive and uses lots of computer memory.

tornado watch cancelled and severe thunderstorm watch in its place....Jim in Clinton....hooray!!!

The severe weather will be to our south.  The tornado watch has been replaced by a Severe T-storm Watch to our south.  Just be on the look out for some heavy rain.

Kristi

Now we have a severe thunderstorm watch AND a tornado watch?  Isn't that a bit redundant?  LOL

Ooops I didn't get it...sorry.  I'm still learning. :)

The severe t-storm watch is for the metro's southern counties and replaces the sexisting tornado watch which has been cancelled. Linn/Miami/Johnson MO/LafayetteMO

Oh, All right everybody can go to bed! Hopefully tomorrow will be better!

Oh so Cass is still in it.  Got excited over nothing.  Poo.  

Jeremy just said watches cancelled for KC.  YAY!

Sorry but I knew it would amount to very li8ttle.  You all should listen to me more often. :)

Kristi

*****************

At least for the metro it hasn't amounted to much.  Let's see if the line forms into a bow to the southeast.

Jeremy

Just to make sure, is the severe weather threat over for the Clay County area? I know the watch has been canceled but I just wanted to check before I go to bed.

Thanks

****************

The watches are cancelled for Clay...looks like the severe threat for you is now very small tonight.  You can rest a little better.

Jeremy

Anyone?  I am having a hard time w/ watching the radar!  Which way are the storms moving?  Kristy

**************

Moving east at 30mph

Jeremy

oops little  Excuse my typing!

Kristi

Weird weather here...I just looked outside a bit ago and the rain was swirling outside.  Wind kept changing the direction of the rain...Raining heftily, light show, and thunder here near the triangle.

*******************

I have a time lapse going on our tower cam by the Triangle.  Wonder how it will turn out...

Jeremy

I can't go to bed, I'm on the Linn/Miami count line. Been sitting here frettin!

***************

You can expect a strong storm in the next 15 minutes or so.  Gusty winds, heavy rain, and maybe some hail.

Jeremy

Oh I'm so happy that there's no more tornado watch.  Hopefully nothing else will be too bad.  I'm so glad I found this forum and you smart people to chat with about weather, if not I probably would have rushed off to my in-laws at the first mention of a tornado watch and now I would be sitting there regretting it like no tomorrow.

Why was a tornado watch put up until 4am and then cancelled?  What changed?  Could we go back under a tornado watch tonight?

*******************

I don't see us going back under a tornado watch tonight.  The t-storm watch replaced the watch that was in effect until 4 a.m. for some areas.

Jeremy

Thanks jeremy.  once it starts raining here in lee's Summit how long do you think it will rain?  Wow, just had some strong wind.  i know it's gonna start any minute.  Kristy

Thanks Jeremy.... nice to know your out there watching out for us. Sorry about the long link earlier, didn't know it messed up the page width.

****************

That's ok...please keep us updated when the storm moves over your house.  I'm going to do another cut in soon!

Jeremy

Thanks Jeremy!   I am now going to bed then.  :-)  Got my weather radio though, just in case.

What's up with that cell down by Witchita with the tornado warning on it?  That thing seems like it has had a tornado warning on it FOREVER!

I hope you are able to see what I am talking about Jeremy.  Thanks for keeping us informed!

That towercam that you have is west of me.  I live about two or so miles east of that right off Blue Ridge and 470.  

 
auroramama I saw that one too even after they
canceled the tornado watch.

Just a bunch of lightning off in the distance
so far here in Cass county in Strasburg,
near Pleasant Hill Missouri.

There is a new Blog by the way.

Thank you very much Jeremy. Much like Farmgirl, it make me feel much better knowing that you guys are up watching out for us and here to answer questions.

*******************

My pleasure.  If I'm here and going to cut in to the overnight shows and keep those that are still awake updated.

Jeremy