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Memorial Day Severe Weather Risk

Happy Memorial Day bloggers,

There are a lot of questions concerning our severe weather potential today.  A large area of rain, with some embedded thunderstorms, is moving across our region this morning.  It is going to rain for a few hours to start out Memorial Day.  The main front is very disorganized with its wind fields as you can see below:

Here are the first two questions:

  • #1:  Will this mornings rain and clouds prevent the lower levels of the atmosphere from destablizing?  In other words, will it heat up this afternoon after this band of rain moves by? 
  • #2:  Where will the front be this evening when thunderstorms redevelop?

The latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center is displayed below:

We will know more later this morning, so look for an update around noon. Brett Anthony will keep you updated between now and then as we track this large area of rain on ESP radar on NBC Action News all morning.  Remember, our Mid-day newscast is on at 11 AM for one hour. 

Rain is moving in, and it could be a major factor in our severe weather threat!  I am going to relax, and watch it move through. We will analyze the new data and provide you with updates later today.   And, sometime this week we will look back at what just happened with the past four days of tornadoes.  Jeff Penner and I are going to get some of the tornado videos to show on the air either later today, or beginning Tuesday.  So, watch NBC Action News for some of the past week's terrible weather.

Gary

Published Monday, May 26, 2008 8:03 AM by glezak

Comments

 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Come on Sun, There is only a 5% chance of tornadoes!! I hope it goes up, for at least just west of here.

--------------

Andrew,

It isn't going up, and with all of this rain it is only going down, thank goodness.  After watching all of the tornado destruction over the weekend I hope tornado season ends soon.  I understand the excitement over the extremely severe thunderstorm with tornadoes, but I prefer a nice thunderstorm active with lightning and heavy rain.   I have seen one tornado, and that was enough for me.

Gary

May 26, 2008 8:25 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

As of 8:30am Olathe North HS- 0.71"
May 26, 2008 8:28 AM
 

StormWyndd said:

Good morning,
Here by the stadiums so far - I have .45" of rain, and I just came in from putting some weed & feed down.  Now looking at the radar and the way this is falling apart, I wonder if I'm going to get enough water to soak it in, lol.... that would be my luck!  Dandylions win again.
May 26, 2008 8:46 AM
 

kcroyals05 said:

Good morning Gary and team.

We had another round last night and it dropped .82 inches here in Grandview.   Gary, I agree with you 100%, I want tornado season to end.   It's going to be a record season!!!

Hopefully it will be nice enough this afternoon and early evening that I'll be able to grill.  The family is really looking forward to it..

Have a great day!!

Bill and Melissa
May 26, 2008 9:01 AM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Well, It looks like Wichita and westward have the best chance of the skies are not as cloudy.
May 26, 2008 9:13 AM
 

kurt said:

Hi, I thought we were going to get several rounds of heavy rain.  Not that it is dry, but this sure hasn't been the wet May I thought we would be having.  I hope I don't have to start draggin around hoses already, but I know the pots will need water if we don't get at least an inch of rain out of this.  Somehow everything split around us and I have had less than .2 inches from all this.

May 26, 2008 9:23 AM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I have to get this off my chest. It has bothered me all night long. I'm Italian so I don't get over things easily LOL

I have noticed some newer posters  (Welcome all) making comments about the bloggers "fighting" and that new people don't want to come here. First of all, there are obviously new bloggers coming in all the time. Secondly, I challenge you to find any public forum where people always agree and personalities don't shine through. Hasn't anyone ever been in an AOL chat room years ago or is that just me?

I think it is rare when things go over the top here. I think people can disagree and post their opinions and the majority can deal with it. I have been frustrated a few times and eventually just gone and done something else to calm down. But I always end up coming back.

I have met some of the bloggers in person, and others on here I feel like I kind of "know."  I can still fit my weather knowledge on a fly's eye but I know more than I did in 2005 when I started here and more than I did a few months ago. While this is a weather forum it still is a group of PEOPLE. I know who lost their job, who has family in ill health, who is having problems in other areas, and I have seen people rise to the occasion to help and comfort people in here and not just in a weather sense.

If you are that new then you need to spend some time here to understand the dynamics of this or any other public forum before you criticize the rest of us.  I have disagreed with people here before and I still "speak" to them . Sure, there's a couple of folks whose posts create problems and we get upset because we know things can scare others that come looking for reassurance here.

Scott, Notes and others do challenge Gary but I don't take it as mean but rather a push to strengthen something he wholeheartedly believes in and may end up in met books because of. Remember it is difficult to read a post without the facial expressions and vocal tones that  gives us clues in person what someone is trying to convey.

Honestly, this is one of the best forums I have come across in years. If people could not express themselves then it would not be a blog, but rather a daily weather lesson that you read and then leave as opposed to a true interaction among weather fanatics.
May 26, 2008 9:25 AM
 

BigJG said:

Well said Jeri.  I know all about the AOL chat rooms.  Those rooms can have some very disturbing individuals.  I used to frequent them all the time, but got tired of those certain people.  I can tell this room has a small handful of people that like to come in here and try to get people worked up, but I do my best to ignore them.  In the end, the only opinion that really matters to me is that of the NBC weather team, although I do enjoy reading posts from the "usual suspects" and get their take.  This is a nice place where weather enthusiasts from all walks of life can come and share their views.
May 26, 2008 9:33 AM
 

goodlife said:

.80"  323rd and 7 hwy  between Garden City and Creighton
May 26, 2008 9:34 AM
 

momof3 said:

AMEN!!!!!  I could not have said it better myself Jeri!  Great job!
May 26, 2008 9:38 AM
 

Roberto said:

It's great that the tornado risk is so low for us, but I feel bad for all the people in that moderate risk that have gotten the brunt of the weather the last few days. Yesterday, it looked ike it would be central KS today, but know its Panhandle of OK, TX, and SW Kansas.
May 26, 2008 9:42 AM
 

Roberto said:

Great, Jeri! Yeah, the blog rarely (I think only twice in its existance!) has gone over the top. If I said anything last night, I was just being overly cautious! I agree that people should express themselves, but also talk about the weather.
May 26, 2008 9:45 AM
 

StormWyndd said:

The radar is just goofy this morning.  

Showers keep firing out west of Topeka, blow up, move east, then as soon as they hit the western edge of the 435 loop they start falling apart and by the time it gets the eastern edge of 435 there's almost nothing left?  Who turned the poof on?  lol  :o)
May 26, 2008 9:55 AM
 

CO dreaming said:

As of 7:30AM, S. Lee's Summit 150 & 291 received 1.05". Beginning to sprinkle at 10:00AM.
May 26, 2008 10:07 AM
 

5kckmartins said:

Great way to put that Jeri.   I've been in many different types of chat rooms, blogs and they're NOTHING like this.. this is a wonderful place to learn about weather, and visit with some really really cool people..

Someday I hope to meet more of you all.
May 26, 2008 10:07 AM
 

WEATHERdude said:

jeez, yesterday was a doozy! there were 513 storm reports, and all the towns that were deavastated by the tornnados, they will be in my prayers today.

I think that we have had enough severe weather around us for a long time, lol

and Gary, it seems that they have cancelled our Flash Flood Watch. Is the heavy rain threat over?
May 26, 2008 10:10 AM
 

Roberto said:

A 2 year old was killed in Minnesota by the storms yesterday. We are so lucky that we have not had to deal with this this year. It has been all around us this year! We have had some severe weather, but nothing of this magnitude~
May 26, 2008 10:24 AM
 

Darkwolfe said:

Gary,
If you ever have the chance to take a run with some of the chasers, you should.  It'll probably scare you silly the first time out, but you'll get some amazing pictures.  

With the death toll from tornadoes already reaching 100 this year, I'd encourage people to take spotter classes even if you don't want to actually do any chasing.  You might be in the right place and the right time and make the report that saves a life.  Do that once and all of your effort is worthwhile.

20+ years of chasing at random.. 17 tornadoes and I don't know how many other amazing things later.. Where's my camera?
May 26, 2008 10:38 AM
 

Matt P said:

Great news from Iowa.  Officials there lowered the death toll by one.
May 26, 2008 10:45 AM
 

grumpyred said:

Hi all (waving),  I am coverting to the other side  so I thought I would drop  a note.  I have been lurking while and have found a great deal of comfort with this blog.  It's not very often you can find a place where you can learn without all the grade school antics.  The links are very helpful and I find it hard to pull away from the computer.  While I have learned a few things that have put me at ease, other things have me scratching my head and saying "huh".  FYI I am a located alittle west of ottawa.  
May 26, 2008 11:00 AM
 

KellyHightower said:

Gary, was the tornado that you saw about 1995 in Shawnee?  in early June?    

--------------

Great memory, but that was just a wall cloud very close to the ground in western Shawnee.  The one I saw was in 1999, on May 31st.  It was a strong tornado that crossed the road right behind us.  I wish I would have gotten out of the car, but I was  so afraid, I just kept driving and driving until there was no danger.  My brother Scott, who was with me on the chase, was trying to get me to stop and you can here it on the tape.  We got some great video of the classic tornado, near Sitka, KS.

Gary

May 26, 2008 11:02 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

WOW...There were too many LARGE tornadoes yesterday!!

0.2 inches of rain


Alex from Marceline, MO
May 26, 2008 11:03 AM
 

kristy said:

hi Brett, it is currently raining here in Lee's Summit, but as of now in se Lee's summit i have received .71in.  I will update later when this stops.  I really hope this diminishes our severe threat.  thx, kristy
May 26, 2008 11:08 AM
 

kristy said:

hi Brett, it is currently raining here in Lee's Summit, but as of now in se Lee's summit i have received .71in.  I will update later when this stops.  I really hope this diminishes our severe threat.  thx, kristy
May 26, 2008 11:10 AM
 

C in Raymore said:

i need to get a new rain gauge I am missing out on tracking how much we are getting here.

jeri well said, i think the issue on the internet in most blogs, chat rooms you get people who don't have discretion, this one seems to be good to me. I have only seen things that were out of line maybe twice here. we all have opinions and some like severe weather and others dont but we are all well informed on what is going on.
May 26, 2008 11:10 AM
 

kurt said:

hmm cleared off here, was hoping for a good old fashioned thunderstorm, nothing severe, but thunder, lightning, heavy rain.  Seems to be splitting again like years past.  Very fickle weather pattern and the heavy flooding rains circle all around as usual.  I don't want the flooding, but sure could use an inch of rain every 4 or 5 days.
May 26, 2008 11:12 AM
 

KellyHightower said:

Wow!  I hope you will show the video or link to it sometime when all this dies down, Gary!  
May 26, 2008 11:12 AM
 

WycoSpotter said:

Not as sticky today as it was yesterday. Temperature is sitting at 66 this morning with the dewpoint at 65. So far I have recieved .28 in the rain guage since midnight last night. Will be intersting to see if we get some clearing in here this afternoon before the front blows through. I noticed the National Weather Service cancelled the Flash flood watch for areas north of I70, but had mentioned the next shift would probably hoist another one for the expected rainfall again later today into tonight. Hopefully we will get a little more rain then what we got last night.
May 26, 2008 11:20 AM
 

Alden said:

Good job Jeri. Couldn't have said better.
May 26, 2008 11:20 AM
 

Stilwell said:

I lived in Western Shawnee in 1995 and that was the scariest night of my life! I was newly married and we had large daylight windows in our basement. We were crouched down and holding our cats and I could see the neighbors fence about blown over. There was no tornado, but the winds/sounds were as close to a tornado as I ever want to be!

Gary, that cracks me up that you were scared to get out of the car. :) I would think that you would be out looking for tornadoes all the time! My Brothers are crazy and think they are cool and go chasing all the time. I would love to see your video!

May 26, 2008 11:24 AM
 

KellyHightower said:

Stilwell, that night I got so tired and bored of hiding in the bathtub with the mattress and the scanner that even I went out to look.  (Plus I didn't know much about tornadoes then.)  The supercell was lightning so much it was more like an electrical substation was blowing up and sounded like it too.  It was just day-glow orange.  
May 26, 2008 11:31 AM
 

simplykristi said:

Great post, Jeri!  I have not visited an AOL chat room in years.  I don't ever go on IRC (Internet Relay Chat) unless I know what specific channel (like a chat room) that I am going to.

Each of us comes from a different walk of life.  Some are more knowledgeable about the scientific end of things (models and such).  I prefer to track storms.  

I just knew yesterday was not a great severe weather setup.  Today we won't have any.  We have cloudy skies with rain showers around so that would certainly limit any thunderstorm potential.

It looks like the heavy rain is setting up where it has since the beginning of the mew LRC back in the fall... to our south and east.

Kristi

May 26, 2008 11:32 AM
 

MrMojoJosh said:

Gary, I genuinely appreciate the healthy respect that you and several others have for tornadoes and significantly severe weather.  Like many on here,  I used to be the one standing in the street (and even driving around) hoping to spot a tornado. I'd even laugh at the out-of-towners who worried when the sirens went off.

And then I was in a tornado.  Trapped in my home without a basement and nowhere safe to go.  No power, no radio, and no control over what might happen to me.  It was dark and I had no line of sight to the sky.  The roof sustained lots of damage and I lost my fence.  I was physically ok, but not mentally.  I now have a strong fear of tornadoes and rely heavily on websites like this one to keep things in check for me.

Gary, I wholeheartedly appreciate what you do and how you do it.  You have a genuine passion for your job and for the weather.  Thanks for all you do and thank you for being one of the best things about Kansas City!
May 26, 2008 11:37 AM
 

Tony Baker said:

Another .41" at Rancho De Baker (2 miles south of Reno) I'm smoking my ribs and brisket in a poncho if I have to.
May 26, 2008 11:48 AM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

as of now the amount of rain was definitely hyped up for this event.
Not to call a bust or anything, because it isnt over yet,  but still, I dont think we will receive half as much as original thought.

Everyone messed up the forecast, that includes NOAA
May 26, 2008 11:56 AM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I don't know where Reno is (except the one in Nevada) but I suppose some of us could brave the rain and drive on down to Rancho de Baker for dinner.
May 26, 2008 11:58 AM
 

twistedsisters said:

JeriCorrell I agree, You should be able to come here and voice your opinion as long as you are not putting people down.  Some of us like the severe stuff and some don't so there are bound to be some differ of opinions, but as long as no one is bashing on people personally and there views, you should be able to speak your peace!
May 26, 2008 12:08 PM
 

Barbara said:

I got 1.2" at 151st and Pflumm.  That seems to be my magic number lately!  
May 26, 2008 12:09 PM
 

NE LS said:

Thank you, Jeri, for what you posted. I would like to add that if you have a prediction, please say that it is your prediction. Someone saying that "the sky will fall tomorrow at noon" without stating that it is their prediction, well....a person gets kinda nervous.
May 26, 2008 12:14 PM
 

kristy said:

I finally stopped here in lee's summit.  as of now my total is .73.  kristy
May 26, 2008 12:43 PM
 

juniorfan32 said:

Jeri- Reno is between Tonganoxie and Lawrence on hwy 24.  Its small, blink and you will miss it.  
May 26, 2008 1:26 PM
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