Good afternoon NBC Action Weather Bloggers,
Today has become a mess for forecasting the weather. The rain has continued along and south of I-70 with thunderstorms redeveloping all morning west of Topeka. This developing area has just shown strong signs of falling apart. It may suddenly shut off and the rain and clouds would then break up. This is a major factor for redevelopment this evening. Where will the front be located this evening, and will the sky clear to allow the atmosphere to destablize?
This is a very unusual set up with the main energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere located well north of the surface boundaries. Below, you can see the surface forecast for Tuesday morning, and then on the second map the upper level flow.
A surface cyclone is forming now over western Kansas and will weaken and sag southward on Tuesday. Thunderstorms will once again be generated in the warmer air out west. An MCS will form and start moving our way. Will it move in tonight, or track south of our region? This is what we will try to figure out tonight.
An upper ridge over Canada has helped split the jet stream. The northern stream is going to drop south over the Great Lakes. This will help a cool air mass build into the plains tonight through Wednesday. So, it will be back to the cool weather Tuesday or Wednesday. Well, it is sort of a cooler day today as well.
I was at Price Chopper in Parkville Saturday. Below, you can see Wyatt Houston, 8 years old. He loves the weather and he came by to get a weather radio and say hello to Stormy.
Have a great Memorial Day. We will update the blog tonight as the severe weather potential can be better assessed. Watch NBC Action News tonight at 5, 6, and 10 PM for the latest details.
Gary