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3 miles north of Pleasant Hill:

0.56" from Saturday morning's event

0.41" from Sunday night's storms

0.09" last night

1.06" TOTAL since Thursday (5/22)  **** Much appreciated, Brett

Well, i'll be happy when this storm system leaves, it didnt make any sense! It made me feel unsure things because it wasnt cooperating. LOL

Brett, thats pretty funny you had pointed it out, quite interesting.  Thanks!

oops! forgot rain total.... 0.29 inches here in south leawood *** Thanks for the total.  Seems like a paltry amount, huh?

Hello Brett!! My total since Thursday is 4.45 inches.
Thursday .20
Friday .35
Saturday 1.80
Sunday 1.50
Monday .60

Weird thing is LaCygne is just 12 miles north of me and I bet their total is about 2-3 inches more than mine. WOW!!!! Thanks and have a good day.

Monica
Pleasanton, KS **** Monica, thanks for the note about LaCygne.  Brett

Only around 1.5 inches in Grain Valley, most happened on the first night. **** Thanks for checking in, Brett

NW Lawrence has received 3.12" since last Thursday.  We are now a little over the average for May. **** Thanks Larry.

Gary,
 You should get a Mac!  

Morning,
Wow, I can't believe the rain fell apart at KC's doorstep again.  I know we're supposed to have above average rain this summer, but it brings back memories of the past 2 years.   Gary or Bret or anyone, how do the rain chances look for the next couple weeks?
And, does anyone know where I can get those huge white plastic 55 gal. barrels (for making rain barrels) cheap?  I'd rather be storing water up this spring than hauling the hoses to my garden in August.  Save on the water bill & storm run off as well.

Well Brett I know someone who is leaving from Miami on a cruise ship next weekend  for a one week cruise in the Caribbean.  I just ran the latest GFS model you're talking about and not only do I see that potential hurricane, but it looks like there will be heavy rain throughout the area they're traveling almost everyday.  This is one time I hope the model is totally wrong, but unfortunately it's probably not the case this time of year.  Sure fire way to ruin your vacation, because it's not like you can just pack up your stuff and leave the ship.  *** Nasty, I was in the Bahamas in early June a few years ago when a tropical depression dumped heavy rain on us for an entire night and part of the next day.  So it certainly can happen this early.  Brett

Yay, it is already 71 in Lenexa. That's what I like.

1.75" in Smithville since Thursday.

Great job predicting that high of 66 today!  It's 72 already and it's only 9:35am *** Thanks for pointing that out, I changed it to 75 a minute ago, It should turn cooler this afternoon. Gary's forecast for today was 70 last night. Looking at the other obs anything from upper 60s to mid 70s would work for today. So overall the forecast is fine.  Brett

Wow it looks like Parkersburg, IA is this years version of Greensburg.  Complete and utter devastation up there.  Also, Hugo, MN sustained massive damage too.  If anyone's curious this site has a link to a lot of different videos and photos: http://www.stormreports.org/

Thankfully the western Kansas storms were in the western part of the state, not eastern Kansas were it's more densely populated.

Not suprising that the MCS headed S/SE of KC.  In driving through it last night from Wichita, even then...I didn't think it would make it much to KC.  It was falling apart on the north edge as the CAPE and supporting winds evaporated late last night.

As far as the tropical scene..having done that for many years before focusing on the inland, what you see in the GFS is most likely a fantasy.  I would not expect to see a disturbance beyond a slight possiblity of a tropical wave in that location this early in the season.

If you are to see something early in the season, I would be looking to around central America or possibly on the Pac side of the same area.  Too much sheer still for much of anything to fire up.

As far as the predictions, this early in the season..its really a dice throw.  When they redo them later in the season, we might get a better view.  Even with the advances of technology, hurricane prediction is still very difficult.

I have seen projecttions of it being a bit over normal this year, but that is really largely due to the La Nina conditions being factored in.  In the tropics, this weighs a bit more than our weather as the trade winds are directly related to the ability to spawn and are directly in the path of where most tropical storms form, unlike in the US where we are more indirectly affected.

The SSTs in the Atlantic are favorable, but not hugely above normal like in 2005.  There are spots a bit warmer, but not necessarly in the ideal tropical genesis areas.

All said, mentioning the tropical season is important, not because the GFS shows a fantasy, but it should serve as a reminder that this years LRC is fading quickly and really fades once the tropical season becomes active.  

Toward the end of the tropical season is when we can begin to get signs of the new pattern...

Just my thoughts... *** And some good ones at that, Brett

Nastyweather:

It seems even the weather pattern in the Carribbean has been changing slightly over the years.  In 2003 I was in Aruba where they hardly ever get rain and they got enough when I was there to cause flooding.  Of course it all happened at once so the skies did clear up.  However, this past Fall my friend was there and everyone on the beach that particular day got to see a what I think was called a "water funnel".  Which is a 'tornado on the water'.  She said the locals were very surprised since they've never seen such a thing especially since Aruba is considered out of the 'hurricane belt'.

3 Day Total Olathe North HS- 2.84"

Morrell,

I think there are some issues with the forecast temperature graphics.  One says 66 while the other says 67.

As temps are verified by KMCI, the temp at the airport is currently 70.  I would say being within 3 degrees with the current synoptic setup is fair.

Looking at the latest obs, and the location of the surface low...I don't think we will climb any warmer today.  We are in the flow on the top side of the low which will bring in cooler air.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20080527&endTime=-1&duration=0

***************** The web graphics are still a work in progress. Gary's forecast for today was 70. That looks to be just fine with the very cool air to our north. Jeremy

Here is a link with pictures of the destruction of the tornado's that killed 7 in Parkersburg and New Hartford Iowa.  I grew up in New Hartford and my mom still lives there.  The only slide from New Hartford is the one where it says "Cemetary I think".  It was surrounded by big old pine trees that you can now see are just matchsticks.  about a half mile from the cemetary was a county shed for snow removal.  A very large grader from that shed was found over two miles away in the cornfield of friends of ours.  Debris from this tornado was found in Prairie Du Chien Wisconsin 150 miles away.

http://picasaweb.google.com/generaldcmills/ParkersburgTornado/photo#s5204893272879008178

Just thought I would throw that out.  I have a tendancy to be critical when you forcast temps that are cooler than what I like.  You guys do a great job overall!

I was at Perry Lake this weekend as we drove past the camp office the lady inside was watching none other than Gary.  Just thought I'd let you know that you are being watched from Perry, KS

how are the chances for rain at the k for the royals game tonight? *************** I'll make sure to keep the rain away since I'll be there too:) Jeremy

Jeremy, What does Fri/Sat look like for Severe Weather, and chances for Rain? My sister is getting married outside on Sat Night in South Johnson County and I was wondering if we would have to deal with anything as we would have to set up the chairs/decorations/etc on Friday Night... PS: it looks like we are in a slight risk on FRI, and looks like the slight risk on SAT is to our East per the SPC.  I know its hard to predict 4 days out, but a general idea would be helpful... thanks in advance

  *** I'll take a stab at this one, just saw the AM GFS and would have to say, rain could miss us entirely Friday.  In other words, 20% chance of less we get wet!  Brett

Scott, you can take a stab at that too by the way... thanks!

Nothing new in my rain gauge.

Kristi

Well what looked to be a really wet situation just did not really pan out, lots of MCS activity and most of them just bounced around us... hope that is not the trend for the summer, if so will be VERY IRRITATING.   Now it is mostly cloudy and cool back to easterly winds.   As for Hurricanes, they better stay OUT of the Gulf!!
A slightly depressed Nick in St. Joe.

My house southwest of Kingsville I ended up with 2.50 inches since Thursday.  Now, just to keep it dry the first weekend of June-got a camping trip planned!! ****Thanks for the report, I'm rooting for a dry weekend as the "Hospital Hill" run is Saturday June 7th.  Brett

Is anyone else getting outdoor temp readings of 78 or 79 in Olathe?  That's what I've been getting for the past hour.

.09 inches of rain last night at 65th & State Ave.

Cloudy n kinda humid out there right now.

Andvic I am getting 78 in Lenexa.

Carlos,

How could I argue with the most accurate weather team in town?  Yet, somehow I always find a way!  LOL.

I don't disagree in general with Brett.  We will be near a frontal passage on Friday, and per the models, it looks like the moisture will miss us.  But - it is late Spring and anytime there is a frontal boundary nearby, isolated thunderstorms are possible.

The SREF provides ample moisture return ahead of the front, but will there be enough focus for storms to form in this area?

I believe this will be more of a mesoscale analysis as large scale features are largely absent with this setup for widespread rain.  This means it will be a few more days to know for sure.


With the ample moisture now more available with dewpoints in the 50's-70's, it doesn't take much to get storms to give up their rain.

I won't give a PoP since in Springtime, you could argue 20% every day...

Saturday night, which is your main concern looks much less likely for rain than Friday.

Or- I could have just told you 20% and left it at that.  LOL

Thanks brett, thanks scott! I appreciate it... Im kinda worried as I feel that if anything, (isolated t-storms were to pop up) it would be in the afternoon-evening hours... plus with the moisture available it could rain on any given day...

Ok Scott I have a good one for you..
Conditions in state of MO next week.. we're gonna do a camping vacation and I dont' want to worry bout a twister sending us on an ariel vacation lol

Dates of concern June 3rd to June 13th

nastyweather,

Thanks for the link

Jeri...hey, Paison!  I believe you made reference to your "Italian Heritage" the other day?  Thanks for your weather confirmation.  I was expecting upper 60's today...not warm and muggy.

Since last Thursday...2.33 in SW Grain Valley.

Jeff

StormWyndd - try rainkc.com or habitat restore had them- I would call habitat restore, the website shows out of stock, but then it shows updated last was April 08- rainkc.com should have tons of info as well as classes on rain gardens. hope that helps
tooti

5kck, can you be more specific on an area?  Also, that is a large window of time...without knowing any more, expect several days with scattered thunderstorms as it is Spring...

LOL

Not to be controversial but I am curious about what was written above. The initial forecast was 70 for today and  say it goes up to , say, 76 at KCI today. When do you decide to upgrade the web graphics? This morning it said 68 I believe but as it warmed up you changed it to 75. Do you count the 3 degree warranty from the original 68 or 70 to the higher temp you upgraded to after the sun came out after all?

Hey, he never answered me on the weather for this week and for my move on Tuesday. No fair Scott LOL

Hi Troe,
Thanks, I'll look up the habitat restore - I hadn't heard of them.  I've been to the rainkc site (and I even have 2 rain gardens planted).  

I have 3 rain barrels already, and they work great - used them last year on the tomatoes - until it quit raining.   This year I've planted such a big veggie garden out back this year I want to add 5 or 6 barrels for the veggies - those long hot July and August days will take a lot of water.
Thanks again :)

Does anyone out there have stats on how on this tornado season is stacking up against prior years, because I've heard this is the worst since '99 and could surpass that.  Anyone, have any information on that?

I didn't break down the individual days, but overall we had 1.85" Thur through this morning in Eastern Shawnee close to 69th & Neiman