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Gary,
       Did the cold front totaly miss us? Today might be a nice day to hit the pool for the afternoon! I am so glad the rain missed us!
                                        Thanks Gary

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For the pool, it is about to be completely overcast.  But, it is staying dry.

Gary

Gary,

The last week has definitely been interesting...but I guess I wasn't really suprised.

I know you are on 50 days, so I suppose it was a bit more of a suprise, but based on the 54 day cycle for this part of the pattern...it fits.

This is the same part of the pattern yielding the deep ULL over the SW.  Same as early Feb, same as late March, same as mid Dec, same as mid October.

So, for that..not that big of a suprise.

As far as the MCS missing last night..again, not that big of a suprise.  Watching the setup all day as I was out chasing, the outflow boundaries were a huge player in the movement of yesterday's storms and the movements.

While somewhat suprised the warm front didn't yield more activity, the outflow in the southern part of the state really put a stop on much more northward movement.  It seemed that the MCS followed the path around the outflow and headed SE as it peaked in the central part of the state.

Driving through it late last night, let me tell you...the rain was intense.  Looking at the radar estimates, and from what I observed, I can verify that places further down the turnpike did indeed get 4-6+ inches of rain in spots.

In chasing yesterday, not bad...got in position twice in two tornado warned paths and caught a wall cloud on the Pratt cell shortly after the tornado retreated.  

As Bill in Lawrence says about Maxwell Smart - "missed it by THAT much".  

Still, quite eventful.  Saw for myself the circus that ensues in a tornadic cell...it is insane.  One small piece of satisfaction I got yesterday was seeing the TIV in person fly past us after we had position on a cell.  Nice to know that the analysis paid off and verified.  

Also, the analysis the night before got us to a position that was within half an hour drive of where the cell went tornadic...pretty cool.

Two cells and alot of learning yesterday.  Not quite as cool as the footage you are likely going to show, but I know for sure one thing was better than anything you can show  - there was no damage in what I observed.

;-)

Thanks Gary. I'm looking forward to seeing the videos tomorrow.

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Lorie,

You are supposed to say, "looking forward to seeing the videos tonight on NBC Action News".

 

Gary

When is this humidity going to go away?

Further interest -

10/14/2007
And
5/27/2008

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=071014&Time1=12&MyDate2=080523&Time2=12&Align=H&Levels=500

222 days apart, picked as an example due to similar jet locations from a climate perspective to get the most similar type of environment to show.

222 days, or almost exactly 4 cycles of 54 days.  But...if you do the math with 50 days, it doesn't quite work out  ;-(.

I think 4caster and I are in agreement, but probably differ from others tracking this cycle.

;-)

Funnel Cloud reported over St. Louis.

Even behind the front, the relative humidity is quite high.  Looking through the Plains, I don't see many obs below 70% RH.

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Yes, but Scott, this is why it is called Relative Humidity.  45 degree dewpoints with 48 degree air temperatures equate to 90% humidity, but take that same air and make the air temperature 75 and the RH goes way down to around 35%.

Gary

Tornado Trends graph:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/wcm/torgraph.png

Gary, I doubt Lori can get NBC Action News in SW Mo...

Scott and Justin, obviously the humidity (dewpoint) has to go down considerably if we're going to get down to near 50 tonight...

Regarding the tornado stats…things brings up a couple things to think about.

First, if you look at the tabular results that populate the graph –

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html

there is something to think about.  Look at the difference between the prelim and actual numbers for both this year and last year.

On average, there is about a 60% ish difference in what becomes final in the first two months in the year for both 2007 and 2008.   This variation is probably caused by two things.

1. Spotters making reports on the same tornado
2. More untrained spotters in the field submitting “unconfirmed” data.

Later months in 2007, you notice the percentage increase between prelim to actual to around the 80% range.  So, based on the graph shown, I would expect the reports to become closer to what is determined to be actual.  Likely the difference is due to more trained spotters being prepared in what is normally the tornado season.  Jan and Feb, likely much fewer spotters were deployed for “confirmed” reports.

I have made mention previously that I thought the excessive trend shown may have some help from the increase of reports being made.  From the Discovery Channel documentaries, to media blitzes, to efforts to increase general awareness of tornadoes, more and more folks are getting involved in spotting/chasing [plus/delta discussion on this for another day] – and providing more feedback to the NWS.

Just thought this to be interesting…

Gary said:  "Yes, but Scott, this is why it is called Relative Humidity.  45 degree dewpoints with 48 degree air temperatures equate to 90% humidity, but take that same air and make the air temperature 75 and the RH goes way down to around 35%."

Exactly.

I sure wish "relative humidity" hadn't gotten the top place in the public reporting / digestion of the moisture content of the air, as it is an incredibly deceiving value.  

If one really wants to measure moisture, dew point is the only way to go - regardless of air temp.  Relative humidity is dependent on air temperature, while dew point is not.

Ahead of the front (yesterday) dew points were hovering around 70...behind the front they're in the 40s and 50s throughout Nebraska (even 30s just over the river in SD).  

Regardless of the ambient temp, I'll take Td's of 40s and 50s over 70s any day!

Yes, Gary..i am aware...LOL.  

When someone asks when the humidity is going away, I percieve that to be asking about the RH.  Even when the temps are much lower with simlar dewpoint, it is still humid, just not as uncomfortable.

Gary,
Glad your computer is well again.  I have to work tonight, so unless you put the video on weather plus or online I'll miss it darn it  :(

Also, on the last post I was asking about rain barrels, and Troe got me back on the right research track.  If anyone here is interested in making one, check out the new post on my blog for information.  

Notes and Gary, right on! Relative humidity is a terrible measure of how humid the air is in most cases. I love it when people try to tell me it was 90 degrees with 90% humidity...that does not happen in the US. What happens is, the humidity is 90% at 7 am, when it's 80 degrees outside, but then it drops to 50% in the afternoon.

I've got full sun out here in La Cygne. Just cleaned out the barn and goat houses.... really need some sun and dry weather. Way tooooo muddy out there!

So is all this sunshine going to allow for strong storms later in the afternoon of overnight hours?

Scott is that TIV really that crazy looking and does anyone know if those guys are going to put out an IMAX movie?

Just wanted to share a weather disappointment...Hubby and I spent last week in Las Vegas celebrating our anniversary.  We were very much looking forward to 90-100 degree weather and going swimming.  Our luck would have it that the day we arrived a cold front came thru and the entire time we were there the temp stayed in the 60 or 70s...not normal for this time of year in Las Vegas.  We even had to buy sweatshirts because we didn't even think to pack jackets.  We felt like we drug our KC weather with us!

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So sad!  Well, the next time you go it will have to be nicer.

Gary

Forgot to say we were in Oklahoma before and after our trip (leaving the kids with the grandparents).  We saw the tornado damage in Picher.  The house I lived in as a kid is no longer there and my grandfathers house is now without a roof.  Things are mess there.  They are not allowing rebuilding because of the government buy out.

We drove thru some powerful stoms on the way home yesterday.  Incredible lightening show.  Lots of places up I44 and I 71 without power.  Freeman hospital in Joplin was running by generator when we were there visiting my grandmother.    That whole area just keeps getting hammered by mother nature.

50 days ago we had thunderstorms and precip that lasted for the remaining 4 days.
100 days ago most of us had 1" of snow today.

54 days ago we had a thunder shower followed by a break and then 5 days of rain.
108 days ago, we had nothing for a week

Throw the LRC out the window, we're obviously in a new pattern where the bulk of the precip for the next month will be to our north.

^^^GaryB^^^^

That longrange website is too much.  Everyone knows that beyond 3 days out and it is a pure guessing game.  I wish it would get that hot though.

Gary you might want to also mention that Kansas is 3rd on the list of Top 20 states: http://vortek.home.mindspring.com/JUNstates01.htm

4 cities from the state of Kansas on that list, not exactly a good thing.

I live in KCK and now I know that we are number 9 for tornadoes in June. I always felt like KCK was somewhere with other cities for toradoes. Now I know. But how is it that KCMO is number 15 even though the city is only about 15 miles from KCK?

While I appreciate the difference between dewpoint and RH, perhaps I am in the minority for which index to use to express humidity.

From a forecasting standpoint, I rarely care about RH unless determining forecasted cloudcover.

From a "how does it feel outside" perspective, while I know the dewpoint is the key factor to determining moisture, the relationship to temperature is very important to me personally.

Knowing the ratio of moisture to heat seems like a better indicator to "how it feels" than the dewpoint alone..for example...if we are having a 40/35 day, it will have a feel of a cool damp day.  Certainly not unbearable, but you do note the humidity/dampness in the air.

Compare that to a 95/35 day - it would not be terribly uncomfortable as the heat would feel dry, and likely I would not even notice the humidity.

While the dewpoints in these examples are the same, the temp ratio difference likely would make it feel different outside, but I agree with most...RH from a pure weather forecasting standpoint is generally not very useful.

I stand alone on this, I know...but thought it worthy of a followup.

GaryB, I know what you are trying to depict, but understand...the theory and the subsequent patterns are a bit more complex than making one surface based comparison.

I know you prefer the analog method to forecasting...you think we are on 1993 per your analysis.  It would be the same as me comparing this day to the same day in 1993 and expecting the same results.  I think we would both agree it is not that simple.

Also, if we are currently in a new pattern where the precip would be to the north, explain to me how the MCS yesterday dove south and why the precip has been over abundant for the last 5 months to the south?  What is different in the new pattern?

When did the new pattern start?  When is it projected to end?  What is the pattern?

I know its all theory, but can you give us some feel for what you are looking at?

;-)

While we're on the topic of historical tornadoes, this is an excellent site to find information about tornadoes from 1950-2006: http://www.tornadohistoryproject.com/

The above data for representing ranking of cities is somewhat misleading as is the data as it pertains for states...

I understand the premise of frequency/square miles, but the size of the area can somewhat distort the view...

Delaware has a higher ratio/rating than Missouri and Texas COMBINED.

While I am sure their data is valid based on this formula, I am not really sure what it tells us.

I think we're seeing more people getting interested in ham radio and becoming storm spotters because of statistics like these.

Pittsburgh, PA at #7?  What do they call "disturbed land" -- a leaf moves?  I think they need to adjust those stats for severity.

I am confused over the recent forcasts. I don't expect you guys to be correct all the time. I know that is impossible. It just seems we have had some huge misses. Last night at 10pm Gary said 90% chance for rain (did anyone have any?) I kept waiting for the lightening and thunder that they talked about. Today was supposed to be cool???? It is 80 degrees and VERY hot and sticky. High was to be 66 (which is still warm)

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Yes, it did rain overnight. But, if you watched closely at 10 PM last night, I was strongly hinting that we may not have any rain during the day.  It was just a miss, and I am surprised at the lack of rain in our local area the past two days.  I didn't see it coming, or not coming.

Gary

we had rain and thunder last night not sure what time it ended but this morning the concrete was still wet.

Gary,

That California tornado you showed on the 5pm broadcast appeared to me to look much more like a landspout (a type of circulation not associated with a traditional mesocyclone) than a classic tornado.  It had that nice laminar structure, you know what I mean?  

It is certainly still a tornado by definition, but a different dynamic that I figured some readers may be interested in.  

A primer:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landspout

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Notes,

I agree, although not a classic landspout. There was hail with mature thunderstorms around, but I haven't analyzed the radar echoes.  It did look rather strong and I saw some debris in the air.  Very impressive and almost unheard of on the coastal side of the mountains in May.

Gary

Has anyone looked at the current temp. map in the midwest? Its pretty wild to see these kinds of differences, especially after looking at the surface map, there's really not a classic strong cold front, is there?

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Not really, it is sort of backing in from the northeast.

Gary

Gary, I found this rather interesting on MSNBC and wanted your reaction or comments:

La Nina, the cooling of parts of the Central Pacific that is the flip side El Nino, was a factor in the increased activity earlier this year — especially in February, a record month for tornado activity
A short-term answer is that the nation's heartland is stuck in a tornado rut with usually temporary weather conditions that can lead to tornadoes parked over the Plains.
And tornadoes form most often in late afternoon, between 5 and 9 p.m., so if a thunderstorm starts up early in the morning, it's far less likely to throw off a tornado
Cited: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/24845723/

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He actually said that "in a La Nina period, it does tend to cause increased activity over the southern third of the United States".  He made a huge mistake.  In El Nino years, the opposite of La Nina, the southern third of the United States tends to see increased activity.  So, his entire statement meant almost nothing to me, except for the mention of last weeks big storm, sort of.

Gary

Eek! So how does this fit in with the LRC, are you predicting more tornadoes in the month of June for this area than past years?

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Not necessarily!  The jet stream will continue its retreat northward and weaken as we move in close to the first day of summer.  But, there will be some more severe moments, just perhaps a bit farther north.

Gary

One interesting fact...

Subtract one day from February, and you have a nearly average month for tornadoes in Feb.  Feb 5th.

I guess I can't see past the coincidence of the breakouts as it pertains to the LRC cycle.  

Incredible!

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This entire pattern has been incredible.  Incredibly sad for our forecast for a lot of rain this week, unless you live in Garnett.  They have had 3 1/2 inches of rain.  I think Pleasanton, KS has also had a lot of rain this week.

Gary 

Gary, these are very interesting stats you provide.  I used to live in Worcester, just three houses from Burncoat St., which took a very significant hit in 1953.  Worcester and several other towns in central Mass. were hit in June, 1953 by a tornado which killed over 90 people.  The previous day the same storm produced a killer tornado in Flint, MI.  I actually experienced my second tornado while living in Worcester ... and no, I was not alive for the one in 1953 ... LOL!

Gary, two other comments about the chart.  1)  Pittsburgh really surprised me.  I thought of most of PA's tornadoes in the middle or northern part of the state.  2) Pittsburgh (PA) has the "h" at the end ....

Gary,

I was born and raised in KCK but have lived here in Topeka since 1980.  Some of the other Topeka folks may need to help me here but I believe the last tornado to touch down here within the city limits was in November 1988. And as bad as it has been elsewhere this year I hope I haven't jinxed us by saying that!

Over the years it does seems we have had quite a few tornadoes touch down just outside of town in various directions so I assume that accounts for the high June rating.

Of course, the most famous Topeka tornado - which was a June tornado - was the F5 tornado in June 1966. I actually remember that one as a kid even though I was living in KCK. I believe at that time that had been the most costly tornado in U.S. history.

When I first moved to Topeka I lived in an apartment complex that had been built in an area that had been totally destroyed in that tornado. The area was just below a hill in SW Topeka called Burnett's Mound which according to legend protected Topeka from tornadoes (you probably know this already).  This devastating tornado actually came directly over this hill (obviously no protection) and cut a devastating path through the heart of the city.  I used to look out at the hill from my apartment and imagine what that looked like coming over the hill.

Also, in the early 1980s, Dr. Fujita (the creator of the original "F" scale) spoke here in Topeka and I was able to attend. Dr. Fujita had a chart which according to him proved that Burnett's Mound "actually attracts tornadoes." He had quite a sense of humor and it was quite exciting to hear him speak.

Mike

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Mike,

I am sure Topeka will get hit by another tornado, let's just hope it is 100s of years from now.

Gary

For as much rain as I thought we were going to get this weekend we really didnt get very much here in KCK. Yesterday we recieved .35 and today we recieved a whoping .4. Temperatures sure do feel nice now though with 63.5 being recorded here. Dewpoint has also lowered to 57. Looking forward to another warm up late this week and maybe some more rainfall.

Gary, keep things in perspective...

For the month of May,  just over half of the recorded rainfall happened May 22-26th.

I am not sure I would call that a blown forecast, short of you were expecting more.

Now, as far as today's high temps...well..it happens.  The "frontal" boundary was a bit slow today.  If it makes you feel better, I think the NWS missed it too...

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Scott,

It wasn't the slow front, it was the lack of rain.  Last night Jeff and I were thinking 74 for today at the last second, but we didn't do it.  Oh well.

Did you see Friday's set up?  Very interesting.  If the cap breaks it will be an explosion of thunderstorm activity. 

Gary

Gosh love the SPC...they validate my point above about the increase in tornadoes...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/

"The United States today averages 1200 tornadoes a year. The number of tornadoes increased dramatically in the 1990s as the modernized National Weather Service installed the Doppler Radar network. The National Weather Service modernization also began the Warning Coordination Meteorologist program increasing partnerships with media and Emergency Management across the United States. This program also initiated the training of storm spotters across the County Warning Area of each Weather Forecast Office. With more people trained to relay information on storm activity to the Weather Forecast Office and improved communication and digital technology, more tornadoes could be reported."

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There is no doubt that most of the tornadoes that happen are now reported.  In the past, many tornadoes were not spotted or reported.

Gary

It's a tad bit cool out tonight.  Too cool for the end of May.

Kristi

I'm getting excited for Friday!

Here is a random question for you guys. And Hi by the way, just been busy, hopefully I an blog a little bit more, I make not promises though, anyway, where to the numbers come from for Weather Watches ex on march 12th 2006 we were put under a PDS 73, I know what the PDS means I just dont know if the number has any importance. Do you know what the numbers for the watches mean if anything?  What is Friday looking like?

John, the number is just a unique ID so that it can be referenced or updated.

The number is important.  Let me try to explain:
Like the watch that was issued on March 12, 2006....  The 73 represents the watch number so it would have been the 73rd watch of the year posted.  The Tornado Watch that was issued just SE of here in January was Tornado Watch 1 since it was the first watch of the year.  We are up to 382 watches for the year so far.

Kristi

Gary:

Good chilly beautifull morning to you sir!!! Man is it nice out this morning!! Currently sitting at 56 degrees with a decent NE wind-is there any way we can bottle this up and unleash it in the middle of August??!!! Just fantatic out this morning!!

Just checking in this morning as we have been out at Lone Star Lake and are about to embark on another camping/fishing adventure this week. All told, we picked up about 3 1/2 inches since last Wednesday here at the humble abode in SW Lawrence with the bulk comming from Wednesday and Friday night's storms. We collected about 3/4 of an inch from Sunday and Monday night. In reality, Lawrence was lucky the heavey rain did not develop Sunday and Monday night-if we had recieved 2 inches or more of hard rain on either Sunday or Monday there would have been some flooding issues around here for sure. While not out of the ordinary, I am always interested/amazed when a front affects us for long stretches and we are now going on 7 days of this front affecting our sensible weather. Furthermore, when one considers there were highs in the lower 40's and even some upper 30's in Nebraska and South Dakota yesterday, well, this front had some punch to it and some energizer bunny characteristics!!!LOL

I'll be watching this skies later this week for storms as I will not have access to a computer-will have to watch cloud development, winds and of course my favorite: the birds!!!!! LOL Looks like Friday night into Saturday there could be another MCS forming some where in the region. If it does develop, my bass fishing will become channel cat fishing-few fishing times are as fun as catching channel cat when the water is running into a lake or pond-man-just amazing stuff!!!!

Have a great day and week-I really thought your forecast was great for this weekend-I went out to the lake knowing what to expect and thus made sure are NOAA radio we have out there was charged and ready-thanks to you, Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff, we were ready for the weekend!!!! As always, thanks for reading!!!!

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Bill,

Just when I was thinking the weather may calm down a bit, maybe hoping for a break, it doesn't look like it will cooperate.  Friday's set-up could make for a stormy Friday evening?

Gary

Bill in full fishing/camping mode in Lawrence

Every city on this list is a relatively medium sized city with a lot of land and a lot of people.  There are no small towns like Greensburg or Hugo.  Statistically speaking, if tornadoes were darts and the landscape were the board, you'd be more likely to hit Overland Park than Garnett in a blind throw.  Multiply that over 50 years worth of random throws, and only medium sized cities stand a decent chance of making the list.  

While the ACF appears to equalize city size, it does not.  Towns like Garnett are so small in geography that they might only sustain a direct hit once or twice every fifty years, while Overland Park might get hit five or six times - which would make it appear that a greater percentage of Overland Park has been hit than the percentage of Garnett.  

If you took another event that is much more common, like large hail, and ran it through the same statistical process, you'd see no consistency between city size and population.  

Plus, tornadoes are so random that a 5 mile swath might only cut through 1 mile of Garnett plus six other small towns, while the same tornado in OP might all be recorded within OP limits.

So by the time I post this, a new blog will have been posted.  Oh well.