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Our next chance of severe weather

Good morning bloggers,

It is cloudy & cool with a weak area of rain moving across areas just north of KC!  It may be cloudy most of the day and we will track this on NBC Action News this morning.  This has been a tough week for weather forecasters.  Will the sun come out today?  Certainly not this morning, but maybe sometime this afternoon.

The picture, above, was taken by a fireman, in Great Bend, KS on May 15th.  It has been a wild week, and a wild year!

1191 tornadoes have been reported to the Storm Prediction Center, across the United States, this year, with Kansas and Missouri leading the way.  The confirmed number of tornadoes will end up lower, but we are on a record pace.  The next week is showing the potential for some many more severe weather set ups and we will go into the details soon.  Texas almost always ends up with the most tornadoes each year, just as a result of its size and location. 

  • Missouri is #1 with 112 tornado reports this year
  • Kansas is the #2 state with 110 tornado reports in 2008

I showed some videotape of two of the more fascinating tornadoes from this past week.  The first one is an extremely rare tornado in Riverside, CA.  California has tornadoes almost every year, but usually during the winter months.  The unseasonably strong storm, last week, produced snow in the mountains and some unusual late May weather.  There appears to be a well formed wall cloud with this tornado.  And, the second tornado is from Hennessey, OK where the rising motion in the middle of the tornado is powerful.  The air must have been rising straight up at speeds of 100 mph or more as you can see the trees being sucked up.  Here is the link:

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/mediacenter/local.aspx?videoId=360216@kshb.dayport.com

The weather pattern continues to cycle, and weaken as summer approaches.  This next week is now showing more chances for severe weather set-ups through the plains.  High pressure is in control today, keeping us in this cooler air mass, but as the high moves off to the east warm moist air will move back in by Thursday afternoon.  A weakening cold front will slide in on Friday evening, and it appears we will have a slight risk of severe thunderstorms.  And, then late Sunday through much of next week has some potential for severe weather through the plains.  How it sets up each day is undetermined at this time.  We will make some special graphics to describe this developing weather pattern for the next week.  And, we will be tracking this mornings area of rain, with embedded thunderstorms, as it drifts very closely to Kansas City.

We have a new viewer.  This is Miss Molly.  Her best friend Linda Lawson sent this in, "Miss Molly is our Golden Retriever and she watches television all of the time – her favorite movie is Air Buddies and we just purchased Snow Buddies for her – she literally watches the entire movie.  She also enjoys the weather – thought you would get a kick out of the attached pictures".  Linda, thank you so much.  We will try to show these at 6 PM, and maybe 10 PM tonight.

Have a great day everyone!  This active weather pattern continues.  Our forecast had been within 3 degrees for 14 days in a row, and just when I was about to talk about our hot streak, this week hit us hard.  We haven't been within three degrees since Saturday.  Last night we went 67 for today's high and I am now thinking around 65 (which would make it to within 3 degrees).  Let's see what happens.

Gary

Published Wednesday, May 28, 2008 6:20 AM by glezak

Comments

 

juba said:

Maybe a little warmer, for me it got to 73* yesterday. Much Much warmer than I thought I'd be.

--------------

Yes, this weeks weather has not been cooperating.  Since yesterday's rain didn't materialize it messed with our forecast high.  And, now today, here comes the rain, and there is no sign that it will clear today.  Ouch!  Not our best week of forecasting the weather. 

Gary

May 28, 2008 7:33 AM
 

twister11 said:

gary i can recall that that night before we gotr that large mcs recently, the nws didnt even give us a rain chance. so it wasnt just you all, i guess that is what you mean when u say, "tough week for forecasters."  lol
May 28, 2008 7:50 AM
 

boootz said:

Maybe Mother Nature is as mad about fuel prices as most of us are and has decided to keep it cool so we don't have to run the A/C in our cars...lol

I have about given up on gardening this year, unless I decided to plant rice, ground is just absolutely to wet, all of my tomato plants have just rotted off at ground level

Well, we cann always lay claim to Kansas the TO State...TO Windy, TO Wet, TO Hot ,TO Cold, TO Dry
May 28, 2008 7:53 AM
 

zeusthegreat said:

twister11,

Huh?  I think everyone had a chance of rain that night, just not a very high chance of it.  That is actually a pretty common occurrence given the uncertainty of where those systems are actually going to track.
May 28, 2008 9:47 AM
 

shellmeister said:

Hey Gary,

GREAT footage and pics of the tornadoes!  I love the pictures of Molly watching you on t.v.  So cute!  Speaking of cute, did you see the email I sent you with the picture I took of you, Stormy, and Grant at Price Chopper in Parkville?  That was so much fun for all of us!  Thank you for taking the time with us and letting Grant help you get Stormy to do some tricks.  He was pretty proud of himself!

Have a great day!
Shelly G.

---------------

Shelly,

Yes, and thank you so much!  Tell Grant hi!

Gary

May 28, 2008 10:10 AM
 

kcwxguy said:

May 28, 2008 10:33 AM
 

kristy said:

I loved the pictures!!!!  My son is always saying "Is nbc actionnews on yet?"  I guess i watch the news too much.  He even goes in his room and plays the news!!! lol Kristy

---------------

Kristy,

Does he play the part of the Anchorman, sportscaster, or meteorologist?  Have a great day.

Gary

May 28, 2008 10:50 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Looks nice and toasty again on the 7- day...Bring on more storms!!

That dog is hilarious....my lab cody watches duck hunting on tv...She watches no other bir on tv except ducks...I turned it to geese hunting one day and she didnt even pay attention to it...Then duck hunting came on and she just stared at the tv screen...CRAZY dog...Oh well, it is funny watching her eyes while she watches the ducks on tv, b/c they get all big, and her tail starts wagging...OK never mind that...

It was close to 70 yesterday here in the morning then it dropped into the mid 60's.

It is 55 degrees now.


Alex from Marceline, MO

-----------------------

It's just a nice spring day.  The heat is coming, so I am loving this.

Gary

May 28, 2008 10:59 AM
 

HailJonathan said:

Gary,
Great pics and footage, as usual. Hoping to see more rumblers back in here soon! Keep up the great work!
-----------------------

Maybe some thunderstorms Friday evening or next week.

Gary

May 28, 2008 11:03 AM
 

Brocksmama said:

Loved the picture from Great Bend!!  It almost looks surreal!!  Am also loving this cool day and the chance to open up the house and shut off the AC- hubby has already started running it- likes to keeps things cold!  My dog loves to watch the Dog Whisperer!  He goes insane when it comes on- tries attacking the TV to get at the dogs on there!  He definitely  needs Cesar's help!

--------------

Breezy and Stormy watch the Dog Whisperer too!  Of course I have Breezy learning from it, and she is doing great.  Stormy too!

Gary

May 28, 2008 11:50 AM
 

stormlover said:

I loved the dog watching tv.  My cat loves to watch nature shows about birds.  She even has gone up & attacked the tv to get to the birds.  Animals can be so funny.

That Great Bend picture was incredible.

May 28, 2008 12:01 PM
 

Lillyanya said:

>>Yes, this weeks weather has not been cooperating.  Since yesterday's rain didn't materialize it messed with our forecast high.  And, now today, here comes the rain, and there is no sign that it will clear today.  Ouch!  Not our best week of forecasting the weather.<<

Thank you Gary for saying it.  It's not really totally your fault.  It's been an extremely tricky forecasting week.

Hopefully the trend keeps up and we don't get any severe weather on Friday. :P

----------------

Yes, but here comes the sun.  Today will have a great afternoon and evening.

Gary

May 28, 2008 12:29 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

just curious do more people on here use firefox or internet explorer???
May 28, 2008 12:29 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

I use firefox bell

May 28, 2008 1:01 PM
 

FairWeather007 said:

Bell,

I use Firefox at home and IE at work.


As for the weather, I was just outside and it was really pretty. I wish I'd opened up the house before I left this morning, but didn't want to risk rain getting in, though I don't think it ended up raining. :( Although I'm not that disappointed since my yard is still soggy and Tucker (my own little NBCActionNews watcher puppy!) keeps coming in muddy.

At least it looks good for this weekend... my cousin's getting married Saturday, and we girls may have to traipse outside to get from one part of the church to the other...

And, oh, a few days ago I mentioned we got Everest cable and the WeatherPlus channel. I LOVE IT!!!! It's so great to have a mostly local station that's just weather so if I don't have my computer spooled up (or am just feeling lazy), I can check out the radar and forecast virtually anytime I want. It was interesting watching the coverage given on the Minnesota tornadoes over the weekend. My husband's job is based there, though he works here, so we know some folks in the Minneapolis area. Sounds like everyone is okay, though.
May 28, 2008 1:13 PM
 

rmemdv said:

FireFox Home and work
May 28, 2008 1:25 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I use FireFox.

Kristi
May 28, 2008 1:57 PM
 

Lizbaugh said:

Miss Molly is adorable!!


**I am a Mac user Bellgolf...I use Safari and Firefox....
May 28, 2008 2:06 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

looks like i should start using firefox more because it seems to be the popular one. i have been using internet explorer and it has so many errors when i try to do too many things at once. thanks for your input.

waiting for to see how friday sets up
May 28, 2008 2:22 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Do you know that on WxPlus it's not showing Live:ESP? It's showing the national radar,etc.

---------------

Andrew,

Thanks for pointing it out.  I looked over my shoulder, and sure enough, it was off.  It is back on.

Gary

May 28, 2008 2:56 PM
 

DaveC said:

I have made the full switch back to Internet Explorer 7 and even uninstalled Firefox. I have been a user of firefox for a few years, but firefox is becoming more bloated.

This quote from Paul Thurrott somes up my feelings on firefox

"Firefox is no longer fast or small, and it's certainly not lightweight. If you leave this browser running on your system, it will eat up RAM faster than any application I've ever seen. Leave it on overnight at your own risk. IE 7 does not do this. In fact, IE 7 starts up instantaneously and runs quick nimbly"

Currently there is no advantage with Firefox over IE7.
May 28, 2008 3:31 PM
 

Kimberly said:

We use Firefox
May 28, 2008 3:51 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

A bit off topic...not browser related...lol

Friday is looking more interesting.  Some very nice convergence in the 850mb along the frontal boundary.  In addition, the GFS and NAM paint different pictures on the 500 mb vorticity.

Looking at the SREF and the RUC, the NAM is more alligned than the GFS for the 500.  Seems the GFS is a bit of the outlier.  It seems we may have a bit more upper air to work with than first thought.

Also, the question has been if we could bust the cap and if we have enough CAPE to do it.

If you buy into the RUC...

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+cape+sc+60

We will break the cap.  And yes..those are some VERY big CAPE numbers.

In following out the whole view, we will be on the tip of the convection along the front from the NE conus to our area with a dangling low on the end near SW Kansas.  The SRH values are marginal at best.  Sheer is good.

Temps will be in the mid to upper 80s with the dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s, with some 70 degree dewpoints near by.

Looks like a wind/hail event to me.

Gary/Team, I have a question..hope you can answer.  In looking at this...

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+cape+sc+60

Looking into S. Central KS...notice the bulge shown...is this what is commonly said to be a bulging dryline?  It doesn't seem like it is in a classical sense based on the synoptic setup, as I would expect it to be dropping more N/S off of a surface low.

While there is a surface low in the vicinity, not sure what I think of that bulge.  Can you explain what this is?

In looking at some of the composite parameters, some are very interested in the location of that bulge, so it seems it would be signficant in some way...

Just curious.
May 28, 2008 3:55 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

kcwxguy-sorry i started the browser topic i was just wondering what others used because i was tired of IE messing up on me. anyways back to the weather.
i think Friday may be fun day with supercells and tornadoes are possible based on the way this year has been setting up but right now its a wait and see.
May 28, 2008 4:40 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Great video and amazing picture from Great Bend. Thanks for posting Gary.

I sure hope everybody is wrong about Friday. I'm so sick of severe weather.  It seems to me that we are having more severe weather this year than in years past.  I'm so ready to move.
May 28, 2008 4:58 PM
 

kcwxguy said:

I think Powercast is late on the shortwave coming across KS.  Will know more tomorrow, but not buying it yet.

I just love in house models...LOL

----------------------

Scott,

Powercast has had an amazing track record within 24 hours, but this is more than 48 hours out.  It is possible. I only showed it because I think it has an interesting idea.  I am running a new powercast right now.

Gary

May 28, 2008 5:23 PM
 

BrianJayhawk said:

Gary-

Amazing picture from Great Bend.  Is that a funnel coming out of it, or just interesting clouds?

Thanks
Brian
May 28, 2008 6:34 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Whew, my folks are skipping ahead of severe weather. They stayed in Albuquerque last night and made it to Liberal tonight. Eastern NM is under a tornado watch, and Tucumcari, which they drive through today is under a tornado warning.
May 28, 2008 8:46 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I have yet to get anyone to answer me this week but here goes again.... will they be ok to drive from Liberal to Wichita Thursday? I see there is a slight risk again for that area.
May 28, 2008 9:02 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

That's great to hear Jeri.. hope they beat it here.

Stacy
May 28, 2008 9:03 PM
 

kristy said:

gary, the weatherman of course.  Hope you had a great day too!!!  Kristy
May 28, 2008 10:26 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Jeri,
They should be OK on the drive from Liberal to KC.  They come into KC tomorrow, correct?

Kristi
May 28, 2008 10:39 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Wow got up a 9 am to find out I JUST missed the pop up rain showers that hit the area, trees were still dripping, although a few hours later it did mist for a while.
EXCELLENT Pictures and footage of the tornadoes and storm clouds, what a year is an understatement.  On another interesting note... Now I am NOT putting ANY stock into this, just thought it was an interesting thing, remember the year 59'-60' that seems to have had a similar LRC to this one? well on the "Weatherunderground" web site that has all of the supposed historical tornadoes mapped out it has one that supposedly touched down in St. Joe in late June of 1960 and it said it was an "F2", now for the record I have yet to find anybody in St. Joe that has memories or information on this "tornado" so I am not convinced it even occurred. But if there is any truth to it It would be an interesting irony since this LRC hit St. Joe with a small tornado in April!!
May 28, 2008 10:50 PM
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