NBC Action Communities

You know, I hate to say this, but at least it looks to miss central and southern Kansas. Those folks have had enough for a lifetime...

Even though this doesn't effect me I'm going to be watching for the poor people in the hugh risk area. I don't think I've ever seen a "high risk" at SPC. I hope that it's all very minor.

What a tease..a high risk easily in driving distance.  Darn Mother Nature!  Can't go, but would love to chase it!

My whole family lives in Sioux City...I hope somehow it stays away...it looks like Sioux City is in the Bullseye! Its an hour and a half to the southern area of High Risk.  4 Hours to Sioux City. When Gary could this area expect to see the bad weather?

KCGladstone-

I have a good friend who works with Hy-Vee up in Sioux City also.  If you hear anything, please blog it to keep my updated, and I'll do the same!

Thanks,
Brian

Also here is the radar for them.  It will at least keep us up to date with warnings.

http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=oax&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

I am not sure I have ever seen the CravenBrooks parameters for sig/severe so high as it is over KC tomorrow at 0Z.

SREF
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref_matrix_hover.php?fhr=f045&startdate=2008052903&field=SREF_CB_MEDIAN_MXMN__

NAM
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CENTRAL_MESO-ETA212_ATMOS_SIGSVR_42HR.gif

WRF
http://grib2.com/wrf/NW1_WRF_ATMOS_SIGSVR_48HR.gif

GFS
http://wxcaster4.com/gfs/CENTRAL_GFS_ATMOS_SIGSVR_48HR.gif


Normally anything over 50K and you should expect heavy to severe thunderstorms, and normally anything over 70K, I start to see significant discussions on it...

Perhaps I am on an island and will be shown to be foolish, but based on the parameters I am seeing, tomorrow evening storms in the area should be rather intense should they form.

I don't see much tornado threat [but always possible], but sheesh..the wind and hail threat is there.  

Effective sheer is at about 70kts at 0Z

CAPE - http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+cape+am+36

Plenty of CAPE...here is the NWS thoughts on the cap...

"ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE SOUTHWARD PUSHING COLD FRONT.
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BISECT THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING.
PROFILES CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE HIGH CAPE AND AT LEAST MODERATE
SHEAR...LENDING TO THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH POSSIBLE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
THE LIMITING FACTOR COULD BE THE CAP THAT WILL NEED TO BE
OVERCOME..."

I don't know.  Based on the RUC, it clears it out.  Also, based on forecast soundings...it clears it out.  Forecast soundings for the GFS give us a light cap at best at 21.43 j/kg.

The only thing really lacking is strong lift..it is not really that impressive.  

All in all...if it does form, it will be something to behold..

Thanks for the info Scott.  I don't look at the Craven index, but hear chasers/spotters talk about on other message boards.  Wow that sure does look like an amazing setup for tomorrow IF that is indeed close to reality.

As for today, I don't remember even seeing a High risk on the SPC so far this storm season, even for the multi-day outbreak last weekend.  Considering even the Moderate areas have almost always seen significant severe weather I don't want to imagine what could happen to some unlucky people in the High risk area.

One thing that I notice with this stuff is that now we are in the time of year where the thunderstorms themselves to some degree become just as important as how the synoptic stuff tries to set up in figuring out what will happen, example, earlier this week the computer models NAILED US with at least one or two big complexes of thunderstorms, well when the first thunderstorms formed they did so differently then what the models thought which in turn caused the next storm complexes to form and track quite differently then thought by the models and we nearly got missed by almost all of it.  I still remember Monday morning, the NAM was progging a complex of storms to be right over us, when clearly the main action was hundreds of miles to the south.  So I believe that tomorrow's set up is still WAY too up in the air.  For another example lets say that somehow the storms to the north do find a way to gather and push down here early tomorrow morning, that would throw everything out of whack and could push all the instability to the south. Either way it will be interesting to watch, always have to pay attention when you are this close to a high risk, very interesting K.C. on this map is just on the edge of the slight risk, St. Joe is on the edge of the Mod. risk, and the northwest tip of Missouri is on the edge of the High risk.  Well I would say that I should be seeing lightning flashes to my north after I get off of work tonight, unless low clouds get in the way somehow.

Gary,

This reminds me alot of the May 2004 setup locationwise and setup wise when Hallam Nebraska was hit.. Just food for thought.. Unfortunately I dont think I will be chasing this event, but would really like to.. I hope this doesn't get in your viewing area, but would be nervous about areas north of Hiawatha to St.Joseph getting a discreet supercell or two.

Jon

Nick...good point.  The synoptic/large scale vs. the mesoscale analysis is very important.

For events within 24 hrs, I largely rely on mesoscale type of indicies.  Models are great for leading up to the event, but nothing replaces radar, satellite and looking out the window/obs for day of events.

To your point specifically above, I have learned quite a bit this year about the smaller scale features that can signficantly affect location, duration and intensity of progged storms.  Outflow boundaries and smaller scale anomolies certainly can and do foul things up sometimes.  These smaller features are very difficult for models to pick up on and really needs to be spotted in the other tools I mention above...

Just my thoughts...

Nasty, I have seen a few High risks in the last few years, but I am not sure I have seen one this year...maybe one or two if I really strain in thinking about it.

Large tornadoes do happen outside of mod/high risk areas, but normally the SPC does a pretty good job at nailing this.  

;-)

KCGladstone - I'm from Sioux City myself and still have family there and just to the southeast in Mapleton.  Many of them are farmers and have already had a rough go at it this spring with the rain and very cool soil temps.  I'm in touch with them today and as lifelong farmers always do, they are paying attention to the sky and on their CB's with friends.  I've never seen a 'High' risk either, so it's very unsettling!  They are lifelong weather reporters as well and have earned awards including the Thomas Jefferson Award for their weather reporting...I guess that's where I get my natural attraction to weather!

I have seen a coule of High risks being used in the KC Metro as well as Outside of it. I remember back in 2003 when a Highrisk was right over KC and ended up that all the Tornadoes were up by KCK and gladstone.

If The Cap weakens for Friday. with our Temps being in the high 80s-low 90s plus dew points being in the upper 60s lower 70s. Then expect a big storm to happen.

He got the shear and the Instability. we just need a weaker cap and we will have our shot.

Scott. I also havent ever seen the Tornado risk that high with those models and apparntly we are the bullseye for it. But the SPC does get it right most of the time and we should just wait for the next outlook.

if we get these storms tomorrow night, what is the timeframe for them

********************

There's a chance of t-storms tonight and on Friday.  Chances are less Friday Night with the best chance to the south of KC.

Jeremy

"Scott. I also havent ever seen the Tornado risk that high with those models and apparntly we are the bullseye for it"

The CravenBrooks sig/svr parameter is not tornado specific.  Based on the other tornado specific parameters, risk tomorrow for our area is not very high.  Not that it can't be ruled out, but not a large focus...

C in Raymore - The links I posted were largely focused around the 0Z timeframe which would put it late afternoon.  0Z specifically is 7PM CDT.

For specific analysis and the most accurate forecasts in town, stay tuned to this blog and KSHB for up to date information regarding the storm potential...

;-)

********************

Thanks for the plug:)  Just a slight risk of severe weather for us on Friday at the moment.

Jeremy

Jeremy - things must have changed based on your comments...last night, Powercast showed the vort slower and bringing the rain chances for the metro later in the evening...

Could Powercast have been wrong?  LOL...j/k

********************

I didn't see powercast last night...so you may want to ask Gary.  I'm off until next Thursday after today.  Heading back to WI to visit family.

Jeremy

Sorry Scott. I must have misread the model.

Ok, maybe I'm getting confused, but I thought a Friday night MCS was KC's best chance for rain in the next few days...or has everthing changed that quickly?

*****************

Basically tonight thru Friday/Fri. Night is the best rain chance in the near future.  MCS's are tough to forecast or at least where they will track...just look at the Memorial Day weekend.  I think I pulled out some hair trying to figure out the rain this past weekend.

Jeremy

Please tell me any chance of rain will hold off til after midnight! I am going to a concert and don't want it to get rained out!

The thing that unsettles me is that the Sioux City media does not do a good job up there during severe weather events. One chief I have not seen so I will give him the benefit of the doubt...but another chief just died from a heart attack and hasnt been replaced and the other went to a local college and then took correspondence courses to become a met.  Not that its a bad thing, but sometimes I wonder just how much he knows. There MIGHT be radio from a single AM station up there...but that all depends on timing...the later in the day the lesser the chance.  

Jeremy...

Looking just at this, it has to be very intriguing does it not?

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+cape+sc+30

Big CAPE no cap?

As far as frontal passage, looks like the RUC has it right at 0Z based on the surface convergence...would you agree?

http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa1_temp+sc+36

Big cape, no cape, frontal forcing..um...?

There have been three other days with high risk areas from the SPC.

Feb. 5: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080205_2000.html

March 15: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080315_2000.html

May 22: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2008/day1otlk_20080522_2000.html

KCGladstone - sad but likely true.  When Sioux City is the 276th sized market, even behind Billings MT, it probably is hard to attract talent..

;-)

*******************

Sioux City is market 143 I believe.

Jeremy

At this point in my life, I've been following weather long enough to know that model outputs, even 24 hours in advance, are just model outputs...lol....

Someone within 100 miles of KC tomorrow will have severe weather, but aside from that I'm not confident in making a prediction. :)

********************

Let's see if the SPC does any upgrades for Friday.  With the complex of storms to our north today/tonight we will need to see how the cloud situation is on Friday and also on the outflow boundaries that will be moving around the region.

Jeremy

I agree KCGladstone - the NBC station up there doesn't have much other than this:  http://www.ktiv.com/Weather/index.php  , but growing up there I remember we relied on neighbors and weather radios or ham radios.  I still remember a tornado that hit outside of where I lived in Morningside and it hit a farm and "rained" straw all over our neighborhood.  As a kid we thought it was funny, but the adults were not as amused!  Now we understand the danger of the storms...  

Check out the NWS link for their weather discussion out of Sioux Falls - the highlighted words are hyper and you can click on them for clarification and definition.  Very cool for us amateurs!  

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=MPX&product=AFD&issuedby=FSD&glossary=1

i guess i am more confused on the weather now, haha. I thought that the rain chances were just late tomorrow night. we were going to go up to the legends tonight for dinner not sure if i want to make the trip if it is going to rain.

scott- thanks for the timing. we have softball games tomorrow night and probably wont go watch but hate having hubby away when we have severe weather threats. hopefully if it does rain it will come before or after.

The NWS in Des Moines has scheduled a conference call for EM/Media about the sevre potential.....I wonder of Siux City would be included


SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE
NEEDED FROM TIME TO TIME AFTER TONIGHT FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

AN EMERGENCY MANAGER CONFERENCE CALL HAS BEEN SCHEDULED FOR 200 PM
THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

The Sioux City TV Market is a HUGE area....its probably 250 miles from west to east. Mostly Rural area with the exception of Sioux City and also Norfolk, NE.  We'll see what happens.

One thing that is rather humorous and yet unfortunate about the Sioux City's airport is their official name is SUX.  Needless to say when I spent a few weeks there for work some time ago the locals didn't find it as amusing as my co-workers and I did.

wow the last time i remembered a high risk anywhere close to area was march 12, 2006. and i remember that day very clearly because a tornado went south of my house  less than 5 miles.

heres a website that the SPC has and a I found just open it and click on index of events and it take you to all major severe weather events and data from the days for them
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/

Jeremy..my bad..but same difference..LOL.

The SPC has updated their outlook for tomorrow..

Now there is a moderate to our NE and the slight has been extend quite a bit to the south and west of here....

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

any chance that the moderate area moves westward any?

Wouldnt be surprised Bellgolf. It depends if we have a weaker cap or not.

Of course you shouldnt take my word for it.

As Long as sirens dont randomly go off like the last big event.

FYI let the storm chasing begin, I believe these are the same chasers (i.e. Reed Timmer's groups), but the Discovery Channel is blocked for me, so I included TornadoVideos.net too.  I will admit it's exciting to get these e-mail messages.  Of course I don't have the time to sit and watch the live streaming video constantly.

Dear Storm Chase Alert Subscriber,

The TornadoVideos.net are currently in the field chasing severe weather.  You can visit the live tracker via the link below to view the each chaser's real-time position and live stream.

http://www.tornadovideos.net/index.cfm/do/s.LiveTracker

Dear Storm Chase Alert Subscriber,

The Discovery Storm Chasers are currently in the field chasing severe weather.  You can visit the Discovery live tracker via the link below to view the each chaser's real-time position.

http://dsc.discovery.com/tv/storm-chasers/live-tracker/live-tracker.html

Thanks for the Links. Ill use them later. It will give me something to do while I drink Dr.pepper and play poker tonight

sadly, i will not be chasing today. nebraska is just too far for me to drive right now. on the other hand, that moderate risk area just to my east tomorrow might be worth chasing when i get off work at 4 tomorrow. lol i will definitely be keeping my eyes on that setup.

I guess I didn't mind seeing the TIV when chasing last week.  Perhaps it was the 14 cars following it that seemed a bit much...

;-)

In other weather news it looks like we already have the makings of our first hurricane with Tropical Storm Alma down in Central America.  I'm curious what happens IF this storm shows up in the Gulf of Mexico in a few days.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/EP01/refresh/EP0108W5+gif/142812W_sm.gif

Ok.. my 10 year old has a question for you all.  We were talking about the lake water temperatures around here.  If I remember right it was under 70 degrees..  well he asked me what about the Great Lakes??  I told him, I'm sure that water is a lot colder.. which leads to my question..Does anyone know what the water temps at the Great Lakes are?

Thanks all..

Stacy N Nick

Lake Michigan


OTHER MARINE REPORTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MICHIGAN
1030 AM EDT THU MAY 29 2008

LAKE MICHIGAN BEACH REPORTS
                              WATER      WAVE        FLAG
LOCATION                       TEMP       HEIGHT      COLOR
DUCK LAKE STATE PARK           50 F       1 FT        GREEN
MUSKEGON STATE PARK            54 F       1 FT        GREEN
P.J. HOFFMASTER STATE PARK     48 F       1 FT        GREEN
GRAND HAVEN STATE PARK         47 F       0 FT        GREEN
SAUGATUCK OVAL BEACH           50 F       0 FT        YELLOW

DISCLAIMER
THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTED DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE
OF CONDITIONS LATER IN THE DAY.

FLAG DEFINITIONS
GREEN:  OK TO SWIM
YELLOW: CAUTION IS URGED
RED:    HAZARDOUS TO SWIM

SAFETY INFORMATION
RIP CURRENTS ARE A POTENTIAL HAZARD ON GREAT LAKES BEACHES.
PROTECT YOURSELF AND YOUR FAMILY BY REVIEWING THE RIP
CURRENT SAFETY INFORMATION AVAILABLE ON NOAA`S RIP CURRENT
SAFETY WEBSITE.
HTTP://WWW.RIPCURRENTS.NOAA.GOV

$$

Nastyweather,
If it shows up in the gulf, gas will go above 4$.

Wow, theres a high risk of severe weather right now, literally! Pink!http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

I wasn't trying to be a smart alec because I lived in Louisiana for 6 yrs and went through Katrina.  It will probably make gas go up though.

Thank you very much JHAWK23

Alma won't show up in the Gulf...crossing over Central America will weaken it too much. And on the very slight chance it does...it's so early in the season that it would not threaten the Northern Gulf coast...

I agree bewild. Any excuse to raise to price of gas.

yea...and they are worried about nothing else when it comes to hurricanes in the gulf except their oil...I guess they don't think people are important just the oil...

Bewild,
Thanks for the email!  I haven't been at my own pc too much.  I use my parents's pc since it is in the family room.  You can check out my journal at http://www.caringbridge.org/visit/branstetter/  I update it when I can (at least once a week).  In fact, if anyone wants to visit it and sign up for email alerts, please feel free to do so.  (I find the private messaging system here too cumbersome to use.  It's the only complaint I have about this site :) )

On to the weather.....  It is warm and humid today.  Yesterday was too cool for late May.  Today is just a little bit above normal.  

Looks like eastern NE and western IA could be in for some rough weather.  I see storms are possibly tornadic in SW NE not too far from Lexington and Kearney.

Kristi

SPC has issued a PDS for central NE and north-central KS...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0386.html

Forgot...  Definitely a rarity to see a High Risk in place.

Kristi

I wonder how much will actually make it to central Iowa with the current/sustaining convection already there...I would wonder about the outflow inhibition.

I think the PDS is dead on based on the cloud cover and proximity to the surface low and warm front.

Those cells have everything to work with...plenty.

Rdub - agreed...too early for much to happen in the Gulf, and crossing land/mountains is a deathblow to tropical storms.

I am watching the storm chasers over on SevereStudios.com

Kristi

correction - not outflow inhibition - convective inhibition...got in a hurry in typing.  LOL

You can also view on Tornadovideos.net

Kristi

The NWS has an updated 1PM HWO and 3PM Forecast Discussion...pretty much what I thought...

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=KSZ104&warncounty=KSC209&firewxzone=KSZ104&local_place1=2+Miles+W+North+Kansas+City+MO&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=EAX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1


"SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE TO KANSAS CITY."

Yup.

I guess we will get a blog later today or tomorrow that goes into more discussion about the threats tomorrow.  I just wonder as I have thought in the past if the discussion isn't too late when the data has been indicating the potential for the last two days.

I am sure I will get hit for that comment...

Kristi, do you have a favorite chaser you like to follow?  Just wondering as I just discovered the live chases not too long ago and am now addicted to them... hubby says I can watch the online chases all I want but he's not so sure about letting me go chase with Sean-bummer!  Dea

Go watch Brian Thalken's cam right now at SevereStudios.com  Looks like a wall cloud with the storm in southern NE!

Kristi

Thanks Kristi!!  If I get started, dinner may just have to wait tonight...! LOL  Dea

Right now his cam is down. :)  Go over to TornadoVideos.net..  There's a cam on the tornadic storm in NE.

Kristi

im watching the videos too. lol have been for like the last 3 hours.