Good evening bloggers,
UPDATE:
Sean Wilson, our NBC Action News storm chase crew #1, just experienced a tornado first hand. They had to take cover near a building that was hit. And, they are O.K. I will try to get more information later. A tornado just hit Kearney, NE.
A severe weather outbreak may be about to develop across Nebraska and Iowa. Look below at the 3 PM surface map:
Can you see the dry line bulging into northwestern Kansas. This has enhanced moisture convergence and triggered thunderstorms that we will have to watch closely. The models think all of the thunderstorms will be staying across southern Nebraska and Iowa and are not modeling the Kansas thunderstorms well at all. We have to watch these closely to see if an MCS forms and heads our way tonight.
Then, looking ahead to next week, the GFS and ECMWF have finally realized there is an LRC. The models are pointing towards the next strong energy coming in from the Pacific next week, will by heading towards the longwave trough in the middle of the nation. This would lead to more signficant severe weather in our region. Look below at the 168 hour forecast from the morning run of the GFS. The ECMWF has a similar look to it and neither model was even close to this solution the past few days. But, confidence is high, if you look at this years pattern. If the trend continues, look for the day 4-8 severe outlook to start showing this soon.
Have a great day! We will be tracking these developments tonight on NBC Action News.
Gary