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Heu Gary, nice little thunderstorm moving thru Johnson county right now. Looks like the showers are weakening to the south and developing to a line, (cute)! Do you think this could be the last severe weather outbreak? Thanks, Byan.

Good morning Gary----Have you heard anything about how bad Kearney (Spelling), Neb. was hit with their tornado?   There is a great museum there with old cars and tractors.  We received a brief shower this morning but I looked on Wichita's NWS page and they are over 7 inches ahead for the year. Amazing!  We are now only a little over an inch ahead for the year.  Again (thank goodness) here in a pocket in Norhteast Kansas, we have not had much severe weather.  Western Kansas and North Central Kansas has sure had their share.  Again I suppose it is how the troughs and ridges have set up with this year's LRC.  Do you see more severe weather next week?  Take care, Michael/Berryton/Topeka

homerun:

Click on this link.  The first couple of stories pertain to the storms that hit that area last night.

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/gid/

  juba said:
Heu Gary, nice little thunderstorm moving thru Johnson county right now. Looks like the showers are weakening to the south and developing to a line, (cute)! Do you think this could be the last severe weather outbreak? Thanks, Byan.
May 30, 2008 7:10 AM  

It was a beautiful night last night.  Went to Dirks Bently free concert in P&L Dist.  Great breeze but the best was no rain.  Anyone else go?

we r now in a moderate risk here in Moberly.

COOL AIR FROM CLOUDS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING WILL REINFORCE A
  FRONT ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGIONS.
  ALONG AND NEAR THAT FRONT...THE SPC EXPECTS MORE THUNDERSTORMS TO
  FORM DURING THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON...WHEN THE AIR MASS WILL BE
  THE MOST UNSTABLE AND INCREASINGLY MOIST.  WIND SHEAR WILL BE
  FAVORABLE FOR AFTERNOON STORMS TO ROTATE...WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES
  ALONG WITH SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.  THESE STORMS
  MAY GEL INTO A LARGE CLUSTER THIS EVENING AS THEY MOVE
  EASTWARD...AND ALSO MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SOUTHWEST ACROSS PARTS OF
  CENTRAL/WESTERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS.

Well, they moved the MOD risk back to the west matter of fact its now just to the west of kc. *** I think you mean east and it is really central Missouri-eastward.  Brett

I wouldn't mind seeing severe storms as long as no tornados are accompanied with them.

juba said:
 juba said:
Heu Gary, nice little thunderstorm moving thru Johnson county right now. Looks like the showers are weakening to the south and developing to a line, (cute)! Do you think this could be the last severe weather outbreak? Thanks, Byan.
May 30, 2008 7:10 AM  **** Byan, Not the last severe threat.  Let's see what happens late next week. 

Juba, you really want an answer huh?

Yea I do mean east.  That was my bad.

So how much of a chance do you think we have for having severe storms today?  Is there a time frame for it?

If there is anything it will be this afternoon/evening.  Must wait to see where the outflow boundry sets up. **** Firedog, I agree and I'm not seeing any clear boundaries this morning, though on the visible satellite it appears one is over northeast Kansas into NW Missouri.  Brett

;-)

Hi Scott!

So if we get in that clearing boundry then storms will fire?

I hope we get some more storms.

Its one thing to watch and analyze moisture convergence for severe potential..and its another to watch chaser convergences...LOL

More and more folks in the last few hours seem to be showing up in the viewing area.

LOL

----------

It really is amazing, and becoming more dangerous on the road because of it.  Way too many cars out there.

Anyway, the convergence on the front is weak, the front is weak, and the low level winds are not favorable for tornado formation near us today, except for well off to the east over Illinois.  For us, we have to keep monitoring this and Nowcasting.  There is no indication at all of any thunderstorm development until at least mid afternoon.  We could be near that far western cell, which is often rather severe. 

Gary

Where did everyone go?

I can't tell if the Mod Risk includes me or not. Hard to tell on the map. Should I be worried about going home this afternoon? We have no storm shelter at home, yet. Its temporarily a mobile home, for another year anyway.  Up in the city, I don't worry about it during the week, but weekends at home are different...

It looks light moderate has moved west. I wonder what our chances are now! The sun is trying to come through. Starting to feel like a sauna out there. 78 degrees at 10:30. That seems more like it should be this time of year. Would this storm be more of a wind and hail and not tornado? 
Thanks! *** More of a hail and high wind threat, yes but anytime you get big thunderstorms blowing up right over you, some can quickly go tornadic!  Brett

 kcwxguy said:
Its one thing to watch and analyze moisture convergence for severe potential..and its another to watch chaser convergences...LOL

More and more folks in the last few hours seem to be showing up in the viewing area *********************
Just asking.... Do you mean storm chasers? Shouldn't they be moving over to Mo.?  Not here in the metro.

I see folks appearing in KC, Chilicothe, Booneville [appear to be heading west], and our blogger bellgolf appearing on the spotternetwork in Sedalia.

Its still early, and this area is not the prime area for tornado chasing, still may experience severe weather... **** If chasers want to see them from their genesis then this may be the place to be.  Brett

So, if there are thunderstorms around here, what does the timeline look to be?

-------------

3 to 7 PM.  The weak convergence near the weak front may inhibit thunderstorm formation and keep it widely scattered.  But, this is something we will have to watch closely.

Gary

kcwxguy-i got sedalia covered. lol i know the tornado chance is slim but i dont have the means to actually chase yet. so i do it from home.

I am in eastern Missouri, so I may get some action later this evening.

Brett - still going with your 20% from Tuesday?  j/k..lol  **************** Depends which side of the metro you live. 

Thanks brett! Good thing I went golfing yesterday! I will keep everyone updated throughout the day on the conditions in drexel.

The front hasn't moved much today based on surface obs...

Went out n checked rain guage, thinking that there wouldn't be anything there.  i never heard anything anyhow..   I found .07 inches..

OK, thanks Gary! Just when I type in thanks brett you change the response! ;)

I will be heading down to the St. Louis area in an hour or two. What is the outlook along I-70 for early afternoon-evening?

New 11:30 AM HWO...

Exerpt -

"THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE
FROM ABILENE TO MANHATTAN TO HOLTON. THE MAIN THREAT TIME FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS AFTER 4 PM...AND THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS."

Go figure..slower and further west.

;-)

I should clarify..that HWO was out of Topeka.

The 18-19Z soundings look pretty good...

--------------

They do, and thunderstorms that form may become supercells. But, conditions are still much more favorable for large hail.  Each cell will have to be watched closely.  Hey bloggers, let us know what you see!

Gary

I am late to the game this AM.  Had to take Mom to an appt.  (I will be updating my CaringBridge journal in the next few mins.)  I have always felt that we would have more of the hail and wind rather than tornadoes.  I will actually have time to keep an eye to the sky and the blog this afternoon and evening.

Kristi

It is, for practical purposes, mostly cloudy here in Lee's Summit. The sun pops out every few minutes...will the cloud cover allow for the thunderstorms to build??

I was just gonna bring that up.

Are we going to be put into a watch of any kind?? What are the chances of just having rain. Softball games tonight. I wonder if they will be cancelled?

What a crazy morning.  It was thundering and lightning here in NW Olathe then the heavy rains came down around 6:55 a.m.  I had to decide whether or not to drop my daughter off at swim practice by 151st and Black Bob.  I decided to do so since it looked better in that general direction.  And of course it was.  One lightning bolt dashed across the sky w/ some light rain.  So by 7:30 all the swimmers were in the pool.

The whether also did not stop the MS walk that was taking place around Olathe.  Did anyone participate?

kristi-its ok to be late. just thought i would let you know that i am still thinking and praying for your family.

looks to me like the clearing line is getting closer....

clouds keep developing, will be tough for the sun to break out for a decent amount of time.

oddly, looking at many of the parameters, the high flying chasers are under both areas..LOL

Manhattan shows some great potential for explosive development with big CAPE and sheer, and Chillicothe shows great supercell composite values...

Both at 16Z.

Will be interesting to watch...

The seven day forecast for today shows 90 for a high.

Pretty sunny here in Blue Springs - and VERY humid - my car temp said 71 but it feels way hotter than that.

Hi Kristi - how are you folks doing?  I've been in KY for the last two weeks - talk about out of touch!  They do continue to be in my prayers as are you and your family for strength.

Has anybody noticed the lack of hatching on the spc probabilities. for instance hail in the moderate risk is 45 percent but isn't hatched and tornadoes is 15 percent but isn't hatched I've never seen this before. is this an error or do they really only expect weak severe thunderstorms out of this?

Thanks for the good thoughts and prayers!  I have a journal that I update at http://www.caringbridge.org/visit/branstetter/  You can sign up for email alerts.  I update the journal when I can.  

It is humid outside!  It's like a sauna out there.  

We didn't get anything measurable from the rain this AM.

Kristi

wow! my thermometer, which  has never been off and is in the shade has a reading of 89.7 degrees here in Leavenworth.

dewpoint is 71 and humidity at 69%
thats insane, lets get some forcing!!!

Hi, I'm just curious; what is the best way to locate an outflow boundary on satelite imagery?  Do you use Visible, Infared, or Water Vapor, and what specifically do you look for?

How would one forecast what the outflow boundary will do?  Is that somehow included in the models or is it pure speculation?

Any comments appreciated!

Ok my prediction for the afternoon and evening...

About 2:30 or 3 the SPC will put eastern kansas and western missouri in a Severe Thunderstorm Watch.  The front will begin to light up about 4 with some scattered cells in a rough line...one of which will produce a weak tornado (EF-0) about 5 pm and numerous funnel clouds on the Kansas side. There will be lots of reports of small hail and wind but overall it won't be bad and the tornado won't hurt anything.

I have a feeling that we are all hoping for somthing that is not going to happen. Atleast anywhere close. Best chance is central mo and eastern mo.

Quite a prediction....

i have 86.2 here at fort leavenworth, with a 72.9 degree dewpoint.  that comes out to a RH of 64% ....its going to be close, but i think we may be a little far north lvstormspotter...knowing our luck they will fire around bonner or tongy and move away...

This place sure is quiet on a day like this.

yea kane that was my thought too!

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ICT&isingle=mult_big&itype=vis

you can see a couple boundry lines here...especially the one around manhattan up towards falls city.

...although i find that sometimes wunderground's radar picks up boundry lines nicely.

Just nothing going on right now.  Once things get going, there will be a lot of bloggers commenting.

Kristi

pvt, u may be right but after looking at that satellite u can clearly see some cumulus building on that boundary in Nebraska.

May actually develop to the north as well.

we will have to keep an eye up north on that boundary

Bewild79-I was there last night too-in the front row. If it wasn't for the breeze-it may have been a little too warm.

Anyway, should I worry about putting up the lawn furniture for tonight-I'm going to Springfield and if there's nasty weather heading our way I'd like to prepare!

Braysmama,
I was right at the gate for VIP.  Had lots of fun.  

John/pvt, I am with you all..I am giving up on central MO.  I don't like the parameters...

I am very interested in what the NWS put out in their HWO for Fall City NE - SWward...

As we all have mentioned, Manhattan looks good...and the SE direction of the parameters on a loop make this very interesting.

;-)

For Kearney news, go here:  http://www.kearneyhub.com/site/news.cfm?brd=268&nr=1&nostat=1

It's the news website for Kearney, Nebraska.  Lots of coverage on the tornadoes that hit there late yesterday afternoon and early evening.

Kristi

Scott,
You going to chase today?

Kristi

Beautiful forecast sounding for KMCI at 21Z.  I spy a "handgun".

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/

kcwxguy-do you give up on sedalia also?

very impressive cumulus forming directly south and east of me!!!

Storms fireing right in Kansas City metro right now

Kristi

No...not chasing today.  I prefer discrete supercells...line/MCS chasing is beyond my current skill level, and not fun trying to dodge hail.

New blog

Forecast sounding is picking up on a 800mb windshift at 21Z..from the WSW to NW and the cap builds a bit...wonder if the sounding are picking up on a outflow boundary from what is building to our NW?

Surface winds still out of the WSW then..so something is going on...

Thoughts?

I don't blame you, Scott. :)  It's no fun to chase when there are no tornadoes to chase.  I am hooked on watching the live feeds from storm chasers. :)

Kristi