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Saturday morning thoughts

Good morning bloggers,

Jeremy Nelson is on vacation, so don't be surprised when you see a new meteorologist this weekend on NBC Action News.  Jeremy Goodwin is the Chief Meteorologist at WIBW in Topeka.  He is filling in to help us out at times this summer, and already doing a fantastic job on his first day.  So, root him on as he covers our crazy weather this weeeknd.  So, Jeremy is filling in for Jeremy!

Severe weather season continues to rage on.  Kansas and Missouri lead the nation in the number of tornadoes reported this year.  It is really going to become a phenomenal statistic if it continues to add up.  And, this week is showing strong potential for more severe thunderstorm activity.  The surface set-up for Monday is looking impressive this morning.  But, we won't go into Monday yet as it is still two days away and I want to look at the other models before jumping on the NAM model solution.  Look below at the surface forecast for Sunday:

A strong surface low is once again developing near the Colorado/Oklahoma/New Mexico border, with a warm front trailing southeast across Oklahoma and into Arkansas.  Severe thunderstorms will be likely north and northeast of these features Sunday, with the threat moving closer to us on Monday.  It is looking to me as if some very violent weather will be near by this week at times.  We will keep you updated as we move into late Sunday and Monday. 

If you missed the video with Sean Wilson being caught inside the tornado, here it is.  And, a picture I enhanced so you can see the tornado later on.  This was in the dark, illuminated by lightning.  Quite impressive!

http://www.nbcactionnews.com/mediacenter/local.aspx

Gary

Published Saturday, May 31, 2008 6:32 AM by glezak

Comments

 

MikeandJenn said:

Morning!  We were certainly trying to figure out who was on the air this morning when we turned the tv on!

Welcome to KC, Jeremy.
May 31, 2008 7:16 AM
 

Roberto said:

Gary,
   Jeremy Goodwin has talked a lot about a severe weather risk on Monday, and the SPC has us in the slight risk for Monday, and the 4-8 day we are in the middle of for tuesday. How high (in your opinion) is the risk going to be early next week.
                Roberto
May 31, 2008 8:48 AM
 

KCGladstone said:

You picked an excellent fill-in!  Deep down I was hoping for a 4th member (Whoops, 5th....forgot Jeff Penner) to your team...but this works in fill in roles.....but I assume hes only gonna work on weekends as he has another job Monday through Friday!
May 31, 2008 8:56 AM
 

Adam Penney said:

I think we should all be much more concerned about Thursday. Run to Run consistency has continued to show a possible significant severe weather outbreak across the KC metro area.

Its still several days out, but these model runs paired with the LRC, I would say its highly likely that severe weather season has yet to say its final word for the KC area for the year.
May 31, 2008 9:11 AM
 

John Sickels said:

Gary, I was about to make a comment very similar to Adam Penney's....the models are coming in line to show a large-scale severe weather outbreak in E KS and W MO on Thursday. I'm not normally one to put a lot of stock in models this far out, but this one kind of has an "icky" feel to it if you know what I mean....I'd appreciate your reading of the situation.

My sister's ex-husband lives about 5 miles north of the Parkersburg tornado. When I was 8 years old, I personally witnessed the Jordan, Iowa, F-5 tornado of June 13, 1976 (from a safe distance thankfully) so any time SPC starts highlighting major severe risks this far out I get nervous.
May 31, 2008 9:19 AM
 

lezakEF5 said:

I hoping Monday, and Thursday both play out to be very active days around the viewing area!
May 31, 2008 9:26 AM
 

bgmike said:

Wow, next Thursday is looking to be a dangerous set up.  Lets hope that it does not pan out as advertised.  Climatologically speaking this would be a freak of nature set up for June.  Just not sure that a 990'ish mb low will actually materialize this late in the spring.  Definitely will be watching all week on Thursday's set up.

Later,
Mike in Ottawa

----------------

Mike,

We will have a 990'ish surface low tomorrow.  This week could get wild.

Gary

May 31, 2008 9:32 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Welcome Jeremy Goodwin to KSHB- was it difficult to adjust this morning?- did you want to say WIBW- excellent job!

Gary or Jeremy- I would like to get your thoughts on this upcoming week-I know its a ways out-I did hear you mention a couple of times yesterday about next week--what are your thoughts?? Could this be our chance for an "outbreak" within the KSHB viewing area- I am not good at reading the models-just want your thoughts..

Have a great day!

---------------

I will pass it along to Jeremy Goodwin.  And, yes, this could be the week for our viewing area to have an outbreak.  I hope not, so let's just track this as it develops.

Gary

May 31, 2008 9:37 AM
 

homerun said:

Good morning Gary--Jeremy G.----Jeremy is a great meteorologist and I have brought up Gary's theory with him here in Topeka---- KC folks--Enjoy Jeremy but we need him here in Topeka!  :)   These clouds sure are hanging around---I also can't believe the humidity over the past couple of days feels more like August :(-----Take care---Michael/Berryton/Topeka

----------------

Michael,

Jeremy did a great job this morning and I am glad to have him as a part of our team.  But, he will be heading back out to Topeka to keep you guys informed!

Gary

May 31, 2008 9:45 AM
 

Alden said:

Dang, I feel bad I missed the morning show, but I'll watch him at 5! Welcome Jeremy to KSHB and the most accurate team in the city! You'll like the team.
May 31, 2008 9:48 AM
 

marlina10 said:

I was born and raised in Topeka so Jeremy Goodwin is a familiar face!
May 31, 2008 9:51 AM
 

twister11 said:

Gary, that vid isnt a really good example of what you should do if you see a tornado. lol
May 31, 2008 9:53 AM
 

JPnKC said:

Seans video is incredible!- I could tell by his voice that he was a little more than freaked out..thanks for adding it- I saw it last night on the show - that is a once in a lifetime experience....
May 31, 2008 10:13 AM
 

bgmike said:

--------------------
Mike,

We will have a 990'ish surface low tomorrow.  This week could get wild.

Gary
-------------------

I don't see one tomorrow, but Monday evening we have this.....
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a331/weathernut07/untitled.jpg

Which is a far cry from this, imo......
http://i14.photobucket.com/albums/a331/weathernut07/991.jpg

I am not saying that the Monday set up isn't exciting, I was just kinda in awe of a 991mb low in Kansas on June 5th.  I doubt seriously it will occur like that but if Monday spins off a 997 then I guess a 991 might actually be possible.  Only time will tell.  

Once again, I enjoy the blog and thanks for participating like you do.

Later,
Mike in Ottawa
May 31, 2008 10:27 AM
 

chellianne said:

For us meterological slowpokes:

could someone explain all the excitement over a "990ish" low? I want to be excited too. Thanks.

-----------

If you just look at the surface map, the one posted on this blog entry today, you can see a surface low to our southwest late on Sunday.  The number in red, 995, indicates 995 milibars.  This is a strong low pressure area.  So, the 990'ish surface low is just that.  Something in this range.  As we move into summer and the flow aloft weakens the surface pressures will likely be much higher in these lows.  But, not yet.

Gary

May 31, 2008 10:44 AM
 

WEATHERdude said:

Well, i can't really read the models or really know wat to look for, but judging by everyone's comments today... im beginning to get excited/worried! lol

BTW, that video was awesomely scary! and yeah you could even hear Sean's voice trembling, i would be scared out of mind (the last part reminded me of that one scene in the movie Twister, LOL)

so Gary, it seems we are transitioning out of "below average" temps, is this heat going to continue?

May 31, 2008 10:45 AM
 

Matt P said:

I've been tied up a lot this spring so I haven't been able to go with Sean.  Now I know to bring a change of clothes when I do go with him, if you know what I mean. LOL!!! Incredible footage and a very heads-up routine to seek shelter.
May 31, 2008 11:04 AM
 

simplykristi said:

For Jeremy Goodwin,
I watched you on WIBW.com the other night as you covered the storms in north-central Kansas.  You are a great multi-tasker trying to do live updates and respond to people on your live blog!  

Kristi
May 31, 2008 11:07 AM
 

bgmike said:

Chelliane,

I guess the easiest way for me to explain it is if you can imagine the atmosphere as the top of your bed.  If you have a bowling ball in the middle of your bed then you can see the "dimple" it makes on top of you bed.  If you set a tennis ball on your bed it would then be inclined to roll toward that dimple.  That would represent low pressure.  The same holds true for high pressure in the same analogy.  If you put a pillow under the covers you would see a "mound" and if you put a tennis ball on your bed it would then be inclined to roll off the bed.  

The lower the mb is relative to the strength of the low (or for our analogy the heavier the bowling ball).  Winds flow into low pressure and away for high pressure.  So, a "990'ish" low is deep low pressure (really heavy bowling ball) and that in turn will really charge the dynamics of the atmosphere as it moves.  There are a lot more things that excite us about Thursdays set up but the strength of the low is a big determining factor for the strength of the system.

Hope that was not too confusing.  I also hope my analogy was correct (lol).  Gary may tell me I am completely wrong and to never post again!!;)

Later,
Mike in Ottawa
May 31, 2008 11:17 AM
 

LibertyB said:

Nobody get all excited about severe weather, it will miss us like always.
May 31, 2008 11:27 AM
 

JPnKC said:

If that 991 Low was a hurricane- what strength would it be?

--------------

It would be a weak category 1 hurricane. We have had much stronger surface lows earlier this season, but the problem now is that we have heat and an abundance of moisture available.

The latest GFS model has a major outbreak potential for Thursday.

Gary

May 31, 2008 11:28 AM
 

Fire Dog said:

I know.  Over at the stormtrack forums there going crazy at the possibilites.  Oh, and the NWS is allready taking intrest in it.  Here is the dis.

"LATTER HALF OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST LOOKING INTERESTING - AND
POTENTIALLY OMINOUS. CURRENT MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS INDICATE LARGE-
SCALE TROFING INTO THE W OR CENTRAL STATES BY MIDWEEK. GFS AND
ECMWF DEPICT UNSEASONABLY STRONG AMPLIFICATION OF A TROF OVER THE ROCKIES... FOLLOWED BY PROGRESSION INTO THE PLAINS AROUND THU. THIS SOLUTION HAS SUPPORT FROM THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN BUT WOULD BE ATYPICAL FOR EARLY JUNE - ALTHOUGH NOT UNHEARD OF. JUNE 8 1974
COMES TO MIND. THERE CURRENTLY ARE ENOUGH DIFFERENCES IN MODEL
DETAILS... AND QUESTIONS REGARDING MODEL RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE DEPARTURE FROM SYNOPTIC CLIMATOLOGY... TO HOLD OFF ON BUYING INTO THE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS OFFERED BY THE GFS/ECMWF. ON THIS BASIS WE WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE GFS-MOS ON THIS FORECAST. BUT SHOULD THE HIGH-AMPLITUDE SOLUTIONS PLAY OUT... THIS ALREADY-
ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER SEASON WILL BE FAR FROM BEING OVER. IN
FACT... THE WORST MAY BE YET TO COME MID-LATE NEXT WEEK."

----------------

Unfortunately, I agree!  This could be the wildest week of the entire severe weather season.

Gary

May 31, 2008 11:32 AM
 

simplykristi said:

Fire Dog,
I was reading that thread over at STORMTRACK.org yesterday.  We will just see how it pans out.  We all know that things can change.  That's one reason I don't pay attention to the model runs. :)

For those who say we don't get enough exciting weather, ask the people who get hit with severe storms or flooding.  I have seen enough stuff in my own backyard to not want to see it again.  Be happy to show you some pics from storm damage in my area from June 2005 (that was just form straight line winds). :)

Kristi
May 31, 2008 11:41 AM
 

spotter said:

gary have not been able to chase this year but between the blogs the nws outlooks other storm chasers thoughts this week could be the wildest yet. one chaser site said this could be a historic week weather wise.i am on vacation this next two weeks i am getting ready to chase like i have said if i can save one life out chasing getting reports out to the weather service its worth the time.also i ask you a week ago any thoughts on weather the week starting june 7th for south mo branson mo area last year we went thru a tornadic storm north of springfield mo .
May 31, 2008 11:41 AM
 

simplykristi said:

I am not trying to downplay but we all know that things can change.  We all need to listen to Gary and his team and NOAA for possible watches and warnings.  I will be at my computer virtual chasing as usual when severe weather is around. :)

Kristi
May 31, 2008 11:45 AM
 

WycoSpotter said:

Good Afternoon weather blog!

Just had a brief little shower here in western KCK. Currently I am sitting at 85.3 and a dew point of 66.9. Sure feels like a mid July day rather then a early June day for sure. Looking at Stormlab and those storms down in Southern Kansas and Missiouri are beginning to intensify. Looks like a little severe weather event might unfold down in south central Kansas and Northern parts of Oklahoma. Nothing compared to what is lurking down the tunnel..
May 31, 2008 11:49 AM
 

jbtornado said:

Gary,

I emailed you this and a few other items, but will just ask you here because I know it will get read... What happend to the NBC -Action Weatherplus station online? I used to have a link and just watched your forecasts online and anytime on that and now it says that link no longer works! If we get a huge outbreak later this week over the KC area, I would love to watch your station if I have a choice.

And yes I agree Thursday has potential to be a very active day with a large high risk and violent storms, but its still 5 days out and things can change tons. Sometimes in the meteorology world, these are what are known as fantasy storms, if this keeps being consistent and still looks like this Monday evening and Tuesday, thats when you get really concerned in my opinion only.
May 31, 2008 11:55 AM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

Thursday looks pretty good for severe weather. Since its Consistant and that It goes with the LRC I think we should start getting ready. Even thou Thursday id 5 days away.
May 31, 2008 11:57 AM
 

5kckmartins said:

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO it jus can't get nasty later this week.  We're heading out on vacation...  in tents no less...
Please NOOOO..  
May 31, 2008 12:09 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Stacy, it will be fine. I am moving Tuesday and surely you don't think I am allowing severe weather to happen during THAT! Now that I am moving off the blessed 87th St Pkwy and going to western Shawnee without a flippin' basement..well... I will not permit it there either. You know the nuns kept it away from the hospital in 2003, I may have to have them come to Shawnee :) You are welcome there anytime.
Jeri
May 31, 2008 12:20 PM
 

kurt said:

I don't want severe weather, but could use a good rain that lasts more than a few minutes.  I had to water all the pots and some of the beds this morning and have put the water on the garden.  We have not only escaped all the severe weather but dodged all the heavy rains that have hit the area since the middle of the month.  Things are really starting to dry out here.
May 31, 2008 12:25 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Thanks Jeri
Hope that weather stays away too.. but I have worst run of luck ya know :)  Oh wellz good thing I'm borrowing a hand held weather radio, and Mr LappyTop is going with me too.. i've already got all the sites I need bookmarked.

The ol man wants to know if you heard anything on that "helper" dog?  His friend still has it, and she said it needs to GO.

Stacy
May 31, 2008 12:29 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

We are getting a few rain drops here with some sun as we seem to be under a very weird and thin "band" of precip., very neat, so May 31st has lived up to its climatalogical billing!    As for this coming week, so many things can still change but it looks like "somebody" is in big trouble:0

--------------

Nick,

Yes, it rained in the area on May 31st, which is climatologically the wettest day of the year, or close to it.  And, next week is scary looking.

Gary

May 31, 2008 12:31 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

My neighbor has a habit of letting his dog sit in the front yard with him and it runs after bunnies. His last retriever hopped the fence so many times it finally didn't come back. I will ask him but I was concerned about the dog running off.
May 31, 2008 12:35 PM
 

Roberto said:

May 31, 2008 12:37 PM
 

DaveC said:

Saturday morning thoughts? ...HOT..wow.. that sun is warm today.. woo wee!
May 31, 2008 12:46 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

If these severe weather outbreaks (Monday, Thursday) indeed do occur, do you think supercells might be a big threat or is it too far out to tell?



Alex from Marceline, MO

----------

Alex,

Supercells will be likely a few times this week, but how close to us?

Gary

May 31, 2008 1:08 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Awesome video of Sean. Thanks for posting Gary. I'll be tuned here on Monday and Thursday. ::rolleyes:: Here we go again.
May 31, 2008 1:34 PM
 

macnkc said:

Kristi, you make good points about storm damage. Just my observation, some on this blog sound too young or immature to have experienced storm damage personally or to someone close to them. Could be they don't own a home to worry about. It's gotten to where I will probably avoid reading the comments except those from the qualified weather team. This cheerleading for the bad weather is not funny to me at all.  
May 31, 2008 1:38 PM
 

Stilwell said:

It seems like severe weather always hits on Thursday! :) Gary and the entire weather team thank you so much for this blog. It really is cool that you do this and participate. I have a healthy appreciation (fear) of severe weather. In a tornado where is the best place in your basement to go? Is it true that if an F5 (or are they now EF5) hits even if you are in your basement you are pretty much screwed (dead)? Gary do you have a secure shelter in your home (dig out under garage)? Have you read the book on the Ruskin tornado? That book facinated me and it was so cool to go drive through Ruskin and know where things happened. I will be watching the blog, thanks for keeping us informed.

I do have one suggestion for severe weather coverage. Maybe this is not feasible, but when there is a tornado say in Overland Park could you be more specific (street level) Cities are so big and even where I live (Stilwell) is big. I just never notice street specific warnings and it seems that we have that capability. Even landmarks would be helpful.

Thanks,
May 31, 2008 2:10 PM
 

weatherwunder said:

Just wanted to share what a UK storm chaser has to say about Tornado Alley.  Go to news.bbc.co.uk, then at the bottom is a picture of the sun.  Click there for the interesting article and other weather articles.
May 31, 2008 2:15 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Apparently TS Arthur has formed in the Atlantic Basin but is already moving inland into Belize, hopefully this is not a sign of things to come or it could be a LONG summer and fall.
May 31, 2008 2:43 PM
 

f00dl3 said:

What is up with that Thursday thing anyhow? I want to go storm chasing but I work on Thursdays. We have yet to have a severe weather setup on a SUN/MON/TUE...
May 31, 2008 2:43 PM
 

Nick Rau said:

Looks like a thunderstorm has popped up on the east side of the K.C. area.
May 31, 2008 2:53 PM
 

juba said:

The sky is amazing; it looks like there is a massive andville thunderhead right up to the north but nothing is coming out. Is it a pop up showers that looks bug cuz its close? Thanks, Byan!
May 31, 2008 2:56 PM
 

JPnKC said:

Just was bored and checking observations- in Salina DP is 48- Manhattan it is 50 and Topeka is 69 as well as Emporia is 65 and DP around here are mid to upper 60's-- must be some type of front in the area...
May 31, 2008 3:11 PM
 

JustinG said:

I live in Grain Valley and it sounded like an M-80 just exploded.  Now I hear some light thunder and it has already rained here a little.
May 31, 2008 3:23 PM
 

Zazel said:

I'm sure somewhere, someone will have severe, exciting weather on Thursday, and perhaps Monday as well.  Personally, I've given up on it being in the immediate metro area this year.  Over the last two months I've watched as moderate and the occasional high risk areas of severe weather have been hoisted all around us, but almost never on us.  With the exception of the night of May 1st/2nd, the immediate metro has had no exciting weather.  Oh sure, there's been a lot of severe weather in Kansas and Missouri, but interestingly, almost none of it in the metro.  Take for instance the last three days.  Thursday there was a huge high and moderate risk to our north and west in Nebraska, with a large outbreak of severe weather.  On Friday the moderate risk moves directly east of us, with at least some severe weather reported.  Now today, the moderate risk is south of us in south central Kansas.  I ask you, how does it always manage to miss the metro area?  Perhaps tomorrow we can get a moderate risk to our west, making the perfect circle of predicted risk all around us!  Now that would be exciting!  /sarcasm off.

I'll be following along this week because, as much as the weather and it's constant ability to miss us with anything interesting annoys me, I still love it.  And Macnkc, I'm 39, own a house, had missing shingles after the Brook Ridge tornado the early morning of May 2nd, and several years ago I drove through Hallam, Nebraska and was stunned at the tremendous damage a violent and large tornado can do.  Despite that, I still always cheer for the worst in weather.  I can't explain my love for that type of weather, but you see it from a lot of people on here, including Kristi, whether they are direct about it, or it comes across more subtlely.  I do, however, agree that we have some immature posters who enjoy saying things just to aggravate people. ~ Dave
May 31, 2008 3:38 PM
 

DaveC said:

I live in Grain Valley also and HOLY SCHMOLLY! we are getting dumped on and some nasty cloud to ground lightning.. Dog is freaking out..
May 31, 2008 3:41 PM
 

JustinG said:

It's raining buckets here.
May 31, 2008 3:41 PM
 

tcorcoran said:

Same here in Blue Springs.  I walked outside to empty my rain gauge from the last storm and got drenched!
May 31, 2008 3:43 PM
 

weatherfreak01 said:

I am by the 7 and Colburn (by Lee's Summit) and we have been having lightning and thunder for about 20-25 minutes here. Some nice bolts have been spotted. We have some light rain too. It is still talking outside.
May 31, 2008 3:47 PM
 

TheresaO said:

It's loud in Grain Valley! I heard on the scanner that there are reports of posisble lighting strikes in Blue Springs.
May 31, 2008 3:47 PM
 

Chris said:

We just had dime size hail here in Grain Valley, biggest all year.
May 31, 2008 3:49 PM
 

DaveC said:

Is this thing basically stalled out on us?
May 31, 2008 3:50 PM
 

tcorcoran said:

We picked up a quick .27 inch in Blue Springs.  It's still thundering but the sun is trying to pop out now.
May 31, 2008 3:57 PM
 

DaveC said:

THis is crazy, I can see blue sky toward the north of the city (grain valley) yet, we have some heavy rain still coming down near aa & buckner tarsney
May 31, 2008 4:02 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Thanks Jeri..
Would have replied earlier, but ran out to hit a few garage sales for last minute camping gear..  Supposedly this dog is trained so I don't think running away would be a problem

Very nervous bout next week tho.. gonna be checking out motels for just in case's..  I'll  be keeping a very close eye to the sky and the blog..
May 31, 2008 4:03 PM
 

GaryB said:

I agree with Zazel that our next best chance for severe weather comes late Thurs.
We're in the same pattern as 1993.  Heavy rains will move north and dump more rain.  Expect the MO River to remain full or at or above flood stage through July.
May 31, 2008 4:26 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

May 31, 2008 4:37 PM
 

Chris said:

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
  HOUR.  A WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN AN HOUR.
 
  2115Z REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
  OVER W CENTRAL MO.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESIDUAL
  STATIONARY BOUNDARY FROM NEAR MKC EXTENDING EWD N OF STL.  WITH
  SURFACE TEMPS IN THE MID 80S WITH TD/S IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR
  70...THE AIRMASS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 1000-2500
  J/KG/.  AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY /I-70 CORRIDOR/ WILL
  SUPPORT ROBUST THUNDERSTORM UPDRAFTS.  BACKGROUND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
  ON THE ORDER OF 45-55 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
  ROTATING STORMS.  RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR /PER LTH PROFILER
  AND EAX VAD/ WILL LIKELY CONFINE THE MAIN THREATS ASSOCIATED WITH
  THESE STORMS TO BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
 
May 31, 2008 4:40 PM
 

Andrew_Stafford said:

Watching the outflow boundary it seems to have stalled by Lees Summit??
May 31, 2008 4:47 PM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

Why does every big storm happen on Thursdays here.

Basically The Ice storm, The Major snow storm that got hyped but only put down like 2.5 inches, and now Thursdays storm

Many people are crazing over Thursday on other blogs I have seen and in here I can feel excitment. I think we will be getting our share since we have been spared mostly this year.

I will be on Thursday and Monday since severe weather is likely those days here. Lets hope this doesnt turn into something big.
May 31, 2008 4:52 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I enjoy watching storms but never wish for damaging storms on anyone.  All's it takes is one damaging storm in your area to think twice about damaging storms.  I have been fascinated with weather for over 30 years.  Would I love to go out on a chase?  You bet!  I love a thrill. :)  But a part of me would not want to see the destruction left behind..  It would bother me.  It bothers me when I hear about towns and cities getting hit with severe weather.  In fact, I cried when Hurricane Katrina was going to hit New Orleans.  Yes, I actually sat in front of my computer and cried when I read the advisory at 3 PM the day before she made ladnfall.

Kristi
May 31, 2008 5:16 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Stacy,
I hope that I spelled your name correctly...  Where are you going camping?

Jeri,
Are you getting moved?

One more thing...  I know that some people have noticed...  I am pretty level-headed when it comes to the weather.

Kristi
May 31, 2008 5:21 PM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

There talking about a "Loaded Gun" Like senario with very strong Cap and Intense Wind shear. There also talking about this being slowed down and happening over night Thursday which would have less of a major effect.

Heres the bad thing tho


A FASTER SOLUTION (IE. 00Z ECMWF) WOULD SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASE THE RISK FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER INTO ERN
KANSAS/WRN MISSOURI THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHILE A MUCH SLOWER
SOLUTION (IE. SEVERAL OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) MAY ALLOW A MORE
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE RISK TO BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY FOR MUCH OF THE
IMMEDIATE AREA. CONTINUED CLOSE INTERROGATION OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
NECESSARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

May 31, 2008 5:28 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

I did my walk thru Kristi. I close tomorrow morning and at 3pm the house is mine and we start hauling stuff over. Tuesday is the official move day, which is why I refuse to allow any severe weather in western JoCo.
May 31, 2008 5:29 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

LOL Jeri   Congrats on the new house.. bet you can't wait..   I refuse to let the weather get us either.  But whether mother nature agrees with me we shall see.. I'm HOPING to stay ahead of it.. or behind it.  whichever works :)

Kristi.
you spelled it right.. and if you hadn't oh wellz..   We're going to columbia/jeff city area then south thru the ozarks towards lebanon on too the bootheal and back up thru st. louis and back.

Stacy
May 31, 2008 5:35 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Ohhh I totally forgot.. My ol man had a question.  Has there ever been a tornado through the mountains?  I had no clue, so thought I'd ask the experts
May 31, 2008 5:39 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Hi Jeri,
Good Luck with the closing tomorrow, Jeri! :)  WOO-HOO!  You are moving to 75th and  area?  That is really a nice location.  I remember when that used to be fields and pasureland out there.

We will keep the severe weather away on Tuesday so you can get moved in. :)

Kristi
May 31, 2008 5:47 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Which mountains, Stacy?  I had some relatives visiting last week from near Mountain View AR.  My cousin had a pic of the spot on the mountain where the tornado came over it and into Mountain View.

You are going to be in MO, eh?  Take your weather radio with you so you can keep out of harm's way. :)  My weather radio takes batteries.

Kristi
May 31, 2008 5:50 PM
 

5kckmartins said:

Unfort we're not going to the mountains.. well I guess near southern mo would be mountains.  I think he meant the rocky or appalacian mountains..  I don't know, but thanks for that info.  

We're borrowing a portable weather radio tonight.  I plan to squirm n wriggle my way around them all.. lets see if it works.  If it don't, we may have some video of our oooops

Stacy
May 31, 2008 5:55 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

Well that's it then. No severe weather. Satcy says no, I say no, Kristi says no...it's done then...sorry severe lovers LOL
May 31, 2008 6:04 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Stacy,
In the Rocky Mountains, there have not been tornadoes in the high country.  There can be tornadoes in the lower elevations like Denver.

Kristi
May 31, 2008 6:44 PM
 

simplykristi said:

You will have good weather for your move, Jeri. :)

Kristi
May 31, 2008 6:44 PM
 

auroramama said:

Stilwell you made me laugh.  It IS always Thursdays!  My son's occupational therapist comes every Thursday and we always joke "Stop bringing that crummy weather with you!"

Well I will try not to get scared about Thursday yet but I will be hear watching and listening to what you all have to say.  
May 31, 2008 7:17 PM
 

auroramama said:

Stilwell you made me laugh, it DOES always seem like Thursdays.  Our son's Occupational Therapist comes every Thursday and we keep telling her "Would you stop bringing this nasty weather with you!" :)

Well I'm going to try not to get scared yet, I will definitely be here listening to what you all are saying about Thursday.  
May 31, 2008 7:27 PM
 

auroramama said:

Sorry for double post..I thought my first comment didn't post.  I've been having trouble with my computer viewing this site and don't know why.
May 31, 2008 7:27 PM
 

JeriCorrell said:

It's not just you auroramama, I have had that problem as well.
May 31, 2008 7:35 PM
 

MCIRamp said:

Has there ever been a tornado through the mountains?

********************
That was an interesting question.  I was bored and stumbled upon some research on the highest elevation tornado ever observed. It happened at Rockwell Pass in the Sequoia National Park at an elevation of 12,000 feet. Check out this link on it, there are two awesome pictures of this tornado taken by a mountain hiker at the time, and if you're really bored, a great research article that accompanies it.

http://tornado.sfsu.edu/RockwellPassTornado/index.html

May 31, 2008 8:20 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Tornado watch here and warnings near here. I'm so sick of this!!
May 31, 2008 9:05 PM
 

Matt P said:

MCIRamp, the "tornado alley" of New England is central and western Mass up through Vermont and New Hampshire, right in the White, Green, and Berkshire Mountain ranges.  Worcester, MA, which was listed as the second-highest tornado-prone city in June, is just south of the White Mountains.  It has seven hills over 1,000 feet high in the city.  The devastating tornado of June, 1953 which killed 96 people actually began northwest of Worcester, near some elevations over 1,000 feet high.  
May 31, 2008 9:40 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

Alright I have a question. Please do answer, My uncle is here from Germany and I plan on taking him storm chasing. I do consider myself an experienced chaser.

I am trying to to determine whether I chase tomorrow or on Monday.

What are your thoughts?
May 31, 2008 10:34 PM
 

Matt P said:

LVStormSpotter, my suggestion is you tie in with somebody who is chasing.  Look at what nearly happened to Sean, who has been many, many chases.
May 31, 2008 10:50 PM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

Go on Monday.
May 31, 2008 10:52 PM
 

chellianne said:

Thanks, Gary and Mike, for the explanation about the 990ish low. The bowling ball analogy works for me. I imagine if you have a lot of tennis balls on the bed moving toward the bowling ball from different directions (air masses moving around the low) it would make the atmosphere pretty busy. Then add warm air rising/cold air falling and this would make the atmosphere even more unstable. Do I have that right?
May 31, 2008 11:02 PM
 

Matt P said:

SimpliKristi, since when is Denver considered "low country"?  That's 5,280 feet up.  That's pretty high.
May 31, 2008 11:13 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Matt P,
Denver is a lot lower than Breckenridge CO which sits at 9500 to 9600 feet in elevation.  Denver sits at the edge of the foothills of the Rockies.  I was using Denver as a point of reference because I know that there have been tornadoes in and around Denver.  I have never heard of a tornado hitting Breckenridge or any place in Summit County CO.  I have actually been to Denver and Summit County a few times in my life.  Denver is known more for hailstorms than tornadoes.  If you get right outside of Denver into the eastern plains of CO, there can be numerous tornadoes.  It's the uplifting that causes the heavy snowstorms and severe storms for Denver and the surrounding areas.  

MCI,
Did your research yield any tornadoes in the Rockies?  I have never heard of a tornado at 12,000 feet so I found that interesting as I thought it would be too cold.  

Kristi
May 31, 2008 11:44 PM
 

jonnylockbox said:

In 1995, my son and I witnessed a tornado at 7200 feet east of Colorado Springs.  My son is enrolled in college & planning on majoring in Meteorolgy because of an event that took place when he was 6. Click the link for video.  Jon
June 1, 2008 12:34 AM
 

LRCfan said:

Well I just want to think the nice weather we had at Kauffman Stadium tonite beautiful evening for a win for the first time in 13 games the twelve game losing streak is gone.
June 1, 2008 12:36 AM
 

Dwxtracker said:

Actually, I was 5, but ya, we saw a tornado out in Colorado, pretty close to the mountains. Not really in them, but still a higher elevation than Denver. It was a really neat/scary to watch.

David
June 1, 2008 1:43 AM
 

simplykristi said:

They are rare in the mountains such as the Rockies.  There have been tornadoes around Pocatello ID.  I am not sure what that elevation is.  

Jon,
I know Colorado Springs sits at 5900 feet.  Was that tornado in the Palmer Divide area by chance?

Kristi
June 1, 2008 12:46 PM
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