Good Sunday evening bloggers,
Jeremy Nelson is off this weekend, and Jeremy Goodwin is filling in from WIBW in Topeka (he is the Chief Meteorologist in Topeka). Jeff Penner is moving into his new house this weekend with his wife and my godson Skyler. And, Brett and I are getting some rest so we will be ready for this crazy week of weather. I just got back from the Cancer Survivor Day Ralley at the Bloch Cancer Survivors Park on the Plaza. I posted a picture below of all of the survivors celebrating today.
Now, onto our VERY complex weather forecast and set-up. Look below at the forecast map from this mornings GFS model. This is valid Monday evening at 7 PM, and so different than it looked even yesterday:
MCS (Mesoscale Convective Systems) have been tracking across southern Kansas into Oklahoma the past 24 hours. And, the surface weather pattern has just been messed up by all of this activity. An MCS is an organized complex of thunderstorms that lasts for a few hours to over a day at times. The big question tonight is where will the next MCS form and track? Strong thunderstorms are developing over northern Nebraska and if we are going to have a complex of thunderstorms in the morning this area must be watched closely to see if it organizes into an MCS and then turns south into our region. By morning, some lifting north of the warm front will likely generate a new complex in Kansas. We will be monitoring this as well. Monday's forecast is a very tough one as some of the models have thunderstorms and cool temperatures on Monday, which would limit our severe weather risk.
But, suddenly, Tuesday is looking more likely for severe thunderstorms in our region. Look at the map forecast for Tuesday evening, below:
A stronger surface low is forecast to develop over southwestern Kansas with the warm front closer to us. Once again, MCS activity will be playing around with the surface features, so we will go into this set-up later. Right now, the best we can do to the forecast is say there is a chance of thunderstorms on Monday and Tuesday with the best chance of severe thunderstorms now looking like it will be Tuesday. This is a "nowcasting" situations, so right now we know it is a beautiful evening and we will start with this.
The rest of the week has severe weather potential too. It is still evolving, and we will keep you updated through the blog, and of course on NBC Action News this week. Here is the picture from today's rally of the cancer survivors:
Gary