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just a little bit more westward.

Ahhh...fresh blog.

I wont comment much on today's set up as it is a nowcasting deal as usual with as many MCS outflow boundaries wondering around...

Thurs night will be active into the overnight for this area...I blogged on that in a bit more detail on my site.

But here is something of interest.  We are to be expecting a cooler wet summer per the LRC forecast...

May ended up less than 1 degree cooler than normal in May and much drier than normal..over an inch drier.  That is alot to make up, but not impossible.

I would not count on July to help with rainfall or cooler temps, so to really make the forecast pan out, June must end up VERY wet and moderately cooler.

Something to watch.

1.5"  overnight   323rd and hwy 7   between Garden City and Creighton

There was barely anything in my rain gauge this morning.  It sure is sticky outside.  I will be back later...  Dad has an appt. and I have a feeling we are going to be there a little bit longer than planned.

Have a great rest of the morning!

Kristi

I think more important than the quasi threat of tornados nearby today is the hail threat which the area is much more in the middle of the 30% risk.

Good Luck Kristi!

I was surprised to see the SPC extend the Moderate Risk out our way, but nonetheless its there. I guess we will see when the cap breaks later this afternoon.

But for now, I'm going to monitor 41.2 on TV, about 8 different websites, crank up the Radio Margaritaville and watch the fun! (oh and pray for a slow day at work)

:)

I remember back in January / February there was alot of talk about how the way we were in an extremely active winter weather pattern that the LRC would maintain this through Spring and it would be really active during the Severe Weather Season....

So far Kansas City has only had 1 good round of severe weather in early May...... and we are loosing the Jet over the next week or so.

What went wrong?

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I don't know where you have been?  Kansas and Missouri are setting records for the number of tornadoes and severe weather this season.  We are very lucky that our local viewing area has been spared so far.  Let's hope it continues.  But, the active severe weather season did happen. 

Gary

That's pretty significant Gary od Brett; is there any chance this could change, so that we get a bigger hail and wind threat and a 0% chance of tornados? Thanks, Byan!

I dont understand how Illinois/Indiana are going to destabilize with all of the cloud cover and the MCS in their region.

It sounds like the threat will be far east of us. Any thoughts if that is going to change?

Bye

Scott, this could be another summer where KCI skews the statistics...Olathe got over an inch more precip in May than KCI did.

Is the threat for tornados with the storms that come through tonight?

f00dl3- i agree with you. I  guess when I think of forecasting i think of the KC Metro Area. Not the extended viewing area but of course you make a forecast you make it work as long as it is in the two states we are working in. that is frustrating to me. Other than the May storm KC has not been active at all but yes the two states the viewing areas are in did so I guess it works for them.

THe new outlook came out: Tornado risk:15% (within 25 miles of a point) right of to the KS/MO border. Same with 30% Wind threat. KC is in the 30% hail threat. We'll have to wait and see what happens, as Scott said with it being a nowcasting situation. We are in the outlook for Thursday as well as Friday. It's looking like a late night event for Thursday.

Validation is a bear [for the sake of another prefered adjective]

The Metro has generally been spared as it relates to the activity that has occured in the region.  I am not so sure I buy into the hype of the inflated tornado numbers thus far, as many of them are still preliminary and liklely inflated to the increase of folks chasing/spotting.  This thought is even confirmed by the SPC.

"The United States today averages 1200 tornadoes a year. The number of tornadoes increased dramatically in the 1990s as the modernized National Weather Service installed the Doppler Radar network. The National Weather Service modernization also began the Warning Coordination Meteorologist program increasing partnerships with media and Emergency Management across the United States. This program also initiated the training of storm spotters across the County Warning Area of each Weather Forecast Office. With more people trained to relay information on storm activity to the Weather Forecast Office and improved communication and digital technology, more tornadoes could be reported."

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/efscale/

That said, how does anyone measure or validate the impacts around us.  From the perspective of conversation on this blog, it is ALL over the map.

Are we validating based on readings at KMCI?  This is what is most generally accepted.  Are we validating based on this DMA?  As this is a media blog, and the forecasts are geared to the viewing area, is this the validation?  

If so, how do you validate temps/precip/events over such a broad area?

As it relates to the LRC, are we validating the Midwest [Central/Southern Plains or whatever you want to call this area]?  So, if it is really active in Western KS, does that validate an active Spring?

Where is the point of verification here?  At times we are asked to look regionally when asked "can't you see it?", and at other times we are asked to look at the data at one point to verify.  For the temperature guarantees, KMCI is used..but not for all other events.

Why is this?  Well probably because not all of us live at the airport...so, I am not sure there is an easy answer, but without a common agreed upon point or points, then verification of anything is a crap shoot.

Rdub - could be?  But why?  How many times has KMCI gotten more rain than the southern parts of the city?  Seems it all evens out over time...  I agree, it seems sometimes KMCI is in a hole of some sort, but it is a place with the most consistent long term historical data that should over time even out.

Within a large area that is this DMA, I could find a point almost every day that will make almost any type of forecast or long term outlook fit.

[Pause - I am feeling like Notes here - LOL]

Anyway, so long as it is understood that without a definitive claim as to how things are measured and verified, many of the claims are subject to scrutiny - as they have been many times before.

;-)

Well my outlook is....Last time I made sloppy joes, we had tornados...the kids want them tonight.  Maybe I should say no..lol

bewild79 - It is late Spring, nearly every storm has potential to be severe.

Even with moderate risks, chances of a tornado within 25 miles of a point are only 15% on average.  

[Keep in mind, most folks are dismissive when rain chances are doubled at 30%]

Most every other day of the year is <2%.

I know it can be worrisome..but keep those numbers in mind and keep alert to the situation and updated information, and things should work out...

I agree kcwxguy, even with the "higher numbers" in the enhanced risk area, it just means its a better chance than any other day.  Say...if everyone in the US bought lottery tickets and in this case we have a few "extras" in our area.  But, like the lottery, just because you have a few extra tickets than others, doesn't mean you will "win" (or in this case, "lose").

No reason to panic, but just be more alert - have the TV on or NOAA radio on and available.  Check your flashlights and have make sure your first aid kit is stocked and have a few ready to eat snacks around.  Never hurts to be prepared on days like today.  Or weeks in this case - it has been a busy season overall, even if KC has escaped the majority of it (we were real close yesterday with that hail storm though).

And as stated above, don't let the "overinflated" numbers of tornadoes scare you - we have had more than normal, but they've also received tons more press coverage as well - thus making it seem like they are poping up everywhere.

gettin excited here. I went on an incredible storm chase, or I guess I should say lightning chase in the middle of the night last night. I drove through Johnson Miami, Bates Cass than back home to Johnson county all around and through the storms last night it was fun and I saw these frogs all over the road it was so cool!

Great article with further analysis regarding tornado numbers and reporting...

http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/papers/verboutetal2006.pdf

Also consider, subtract one day this year in early Feb, and the numbers are much more closer to "average" - whatever that is.

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Scott,

That would be like saying, we had 8 inches of rain in July, but really we didn't because 4 inches fell in one day!  It all counts.  :)

Gary

Hey... guess what happened last night here... storms went all around us... AGAIN, one thing that is as bad or worse than having a dry pattern is having a "wet" pattern, and with MCS activity running all around us it is a wet pattern, but all or most of the activity misses you, time after time after time!!!   So I think you guys need to talk to the SPC and have them put a donut hole in the slight risk area right around St. Joe please.
Did get to see some nice lightning off to my south late last night.

Scott,
I know to be prepared...I was just being silly with that last comment.  I know the chance is always there with weather like this and to always be ready for anything.  I guess I was just trying to make fun so I don't worry.  I just have to keep a closer eye cuz I don't have a basement so if need be, I will pack up the kids and dinner again if I have to and go to my parents.  Better safe than sorry. :)  I really appreciate all the help and tips I get from everyone in here.  It makes a worrywort like me feel better. :):)

Well heres the deal. I dont think that we will have to deal with anything big today. Just a few showers that develope to the east and then travel eastward.  Rain Chances are real low.

Thursday looks like its starting to trend eastward. If that continues then it will be right on top of us.

Gary,

Yes, it all counts..but really was commenting more on the perseption of "how wild" this year has been.

I think we all have been guilty of making note of abnormal events to better focus on the norm of the rest of the events.

I can kinda think of a few times in LRC discussions....

;-)

Looks like Thursday might be a wind storm non the less, if you believe the NAM it has 50 knot winds at 5000 feet even at 7 in the evening, with 60+ knot winds at that same level at 7 in the morning, rather impressive.

Nick--I gather you have run out of patience, huh?

If you recall the winter, you guys got socked with EVERYTHING and KC was skirted just like St. Joe is right now--so you guys got your share. :)

Just remember, its all cyclical! It will come around again...

Gary, do you see the metro area being placed in a watch later on?  Thanks!

If anyone wants my honest feeling about Thursday..... I have always felt that it was not going to be the big deal that some people have made it out to be.  It might be a big deal out over Kansas....  I just don't think that it will be a big deal in the metro area.  We might get some wind and hail out of it and probably heavy rain.  

Just like last night, I never really thought that the storms last night would be a big deal.  I only changed my thinking after I saw the MD to our west...  I should have stuck with my gut originally. :)    

Kristi

Gary, do you see the metro area being placed in a watch later on?  Thanks!

Becky,
Listen and watch the team, listen to NOAA weather radio, and participate in the blog...  All the resources will get you thru the storms. :)  Just be prepared. :)

Kristi

Let's not pepper the team with the same question...  It's pretty redundant.

Kristi

So where do I go to find discussions about possible watches being issued?  I see the discussions from time to time and I have not been able to find it on the SPC site.  

Looks like I'll be camping out at my mom's longer then anticipated.  Getting ready to take the kids to the park in Northtown that has the little swimming pool in it.  We're going to do a picnic then swimming!  Hopefully everything stays away for awhile!

Not looking at statistics, preliminary or otherwise, but paying attention to the weather on a daily basis, I agree that it's certainly been an average to above average severe season.  With that said, with the exception of May 1st/2nd the Kansas City metro area has missed every severe weather event.  I completely agree with Scott in that you can validate or invalidate an opinion based on what geographic point or area you take as the record.

Personally, I use KMCI because it's the official location, and the second location is what happens at my house 15 miles to ENE and, this year, what has happened there has been nearly nothing of interest, excluding the Brook Ridge tornado passing over my house, less than a half mile to the northeast of where the NWS says it dissipated.  Have you ever been under a tornado and felt the pressure drop?  It's quite the interesting experience and one you shouldn't be riding out from your shaking living room above the walk out basement!

Anyway, when dealing with media meteorologists I think it's fair to say that in all cases they are going to give themselves the benefit of the doubt.  When you're fighting for market share and hence, money, it only makes sense to spin events in your favor.  There's no corporation or its representatives that wouldn't do so.  Now, lets get back out on the field and get us some interesting weather!  ~ Dave

We are still strongly capped.  Forecast progs keep us capped, though eroding a bit as we go..but still enough cap at 20Z for little concerns.

Hodographs are basically a straight line...so no worries there.  Aside from that...just got to watch the outflows....

I think I would be lost without this blog! :)

Kristi..sigh..you broke out with your feeling about Thurs, two days early..shame on you...LOL

Scott what time is 20z?

I visit the Nation Weather Sevice website for Pleasont Hill, Mo a lot.

Here is a forcast map from the website:
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/eax/wx/File.png

If nothing big happens on thursday or friday I'm gonna be so pissed and I'm blaming you for it Kristi!

I know, Scott. LOL  I have been following the outlooks and I was never convinced anyway.

Kristi

20z is 3PM local time

Jonathan,
It is nothing to be upset about if we don't get bad weather. :)  There is a lot more things to be upset about than not getting bad weather.  Let's worry about the big stuff...  don't sweat the small stuff.  That is why I try to have a level head here. :)  Don't blame me....  Blame Mother Nature. :)

Kristi

based on the SPC convective outlooks if we got anything the main threat looks like hail.

i have to be honest-i do not wish severe storms on anyone especially in populated areas. i just wish we would see some action around this area. all the bad stuff (tornadoes and high winds) can stay rural just wish we could see storms.

here you go weatherornot!  Look at the top of the page.  It has the newest watches and newest meso-discussions!

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/

I know I was just kiddddding with you Kristi. I am just so sick of getting missed. I went storm chasing last night at 2:30 Am I chased through JOhnson, KS down to Miami then over to bates and cass than back up to Jackson where I live and I saw the coolest lightning I've ever seen in my life. and there were frogs everywhere..I love frogs by the way... and It was just the greatest experience.

so 00z is 7pm? (zulu time is so confusing)

Why doesn't just everyone use 6 Pm or 6 Am..it's so much freakin easier. sheesh

I agree Hail!! lol

Very amateur question coming your way--I saw someone say we are still "capped", how can you tell that?  What exactly has to come into play for a cap to break?

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You can look at an atmospheric sounding to see if we are capped.  The latest Ruc model, when looking at 700 mb shows a weak cap where temperatures are 10 degrees C or higher.  To break it, you would need strong surface heating, which we are getting, and a convergence boundary (a front), which we have sagging our way from the north.  It is only a matter of time.

Gary

Jonathan,
You chased the storms last night?  I missed the show.  I had to sleep. :)

Kristi

It means that there is something (like a dome of warm air) blocking the atmosphere to keep storms from forming.

Kristi

so what do forsee wise one Gary??? LOL Are storms going to form over us and move on down the road

yeah I chased. I don't care if storms are severe or not. I'll chase especially if they have  a lot of lightning and these had a LOT of lightning. I went over like 4 or 5 counties.

auroramama,

Here's a link to explain CAPE:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Convective_available_potential_energy

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