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Which direction will those storms move? To the north and east? or south and east?

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They should move to the east and northeast.  So, most of our viewing area appears safe today.

Gary

Kimberly,
         I just posted an answer to you on the last blog, and that is that you should keep the radio on weather/snooze (as in no constant weather), but turn the alrm on/off switch to on. If you tell me which radio you have, I can help you much, much more!

Still no new convective outlook for today. It looks like tomorrow nights threat will primarily be hail and winds. I wonder if it will be another bow echo event like may 1st.

i am sure glad we look to be in the clear tonight, i really want a solids night sleep!

You and me both C!  I was up till after 2 AM worrying about my hubby in Rolla under a tornado warning and I couldn't get him to wake up at first.
Becky

I don't know Gary, the 1630UTC convective outlook is out now and it is still showing a 45% risk of 2" hail for most of north central and NE Kansas.  I don't think this should be discounted.  The front has lifted and is lifting but not very much and moving extremely slow.  Instead of Lawrence to Lees Summit todays action might be Hiawatha to Atchison/St. Joseph.

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It may be, but I still think it is just north of there.  Let's see how it looks in a few hours.

Gary

Roberto, I have the Midland WR-100.  My problem is if I have the weather/snooze on I am getting constant weather report, but when I hit it agin, to snooze, then I get no alerts. I got no alerts at all last night because I had it on snooze, but if I had weather on, I got constant weather reports. I don't know what happened differently, because last week I got all my alerts but didn't have to hear constant weather reports.

Interesting enough, if Gary's forecast holds the northland will once again be missed entirely.  Yesterday the storms formed in the south metro then tracked east/southeast.  Now today, when storms are forecast to form north of the metro they're forecast to move east/northeast?  Shocker.  Stunner.  

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You will get your shot at heavy rain tomorrow night, and then some chances next week.  I hope I am right to, but it is close.

Gary

I would also think that any storms forming over Central kansas may clip the viewing are as well tonight. Outflow from the storms may create storms further south as well, similar to last night. Im just looking ahead to tomorrow, it looks interesting and potentially very significant although the surface low is a bit further north. The low level jet looks to be 40-50+ knots going into the overnight hours with plenty of shear. I guess the 00z models will tell us if this thing speeds up or slows down. Also curious to see if we get enough of a dry punch behind the dryline in Kansas to cause it to bulge east a bit more before the front overtakes it.

Gary,
It was so amazing to watch the thunderstorms last night. I watched them move over and over the same area just south of me. I here at 68th and leavenworth rd in kck only had .15. It seems so hard to believe. The wind would come up it lightning and thundered the whole time. But this is all the rain we could squeeze out for us farther north. With that beeing said. What are the chances tonight that maybe the storms will track across our areas from here to leavenworth, Kci to liberty. Since the front will be closer to us? By the way you guys always to the best on bringing us up to the minute weather coverage. this is why you are rated # 1. I appreciate you hard work always.

-Rodney

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Rodney,

Thanks, and I have been there before where they are just south of my house.  It is tough to watch, but still exciting.  You will get in one of your own soon.

Gary

Is Thursday's threat afternoon or evening? Thanks! Deb

csitzman - left you a thought in the prior blog..but won't bring it over...

pvt - I expect your current spring to become the norm more regionally soon.

Looking off the current RAP obs, the warm/stationary front is quite washed out from the convective activity last night across central/southern KS, our area and points east.

Both windshift and temps are somewhat hard to find a definite boundary in my opinion.  Sat images help a bit, but it is hard to tell movement at this point.

If I had to really decide, I wouldn't say that it has moved much at all from yesterday.

Not real eager to get back in the warm sector leading up to tomorrow.  When the SPC gives this to you two days out, something is up...

"--SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
  PORTIONS OF KS/NEB/SD/MN/IA...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
  STRONG...LONG-TRACKED TORNADOES--
"

Our friends in Pleasant Hill have quite the forecast discussion today.  Interesting to think about.

speaking of weather radios, i need a new one, i am giving the old one to my sister (PC one) does anyone recommend one or should i just get another PC one?

Weather Radio?  I have a Radio Shack handheld that is waterproof and shows ambient temperature around it.  Has SAME codes and different alarms.  It can run off battery, AC adapter or a car accessory adapter.  This radio works great.  When the alarm sounds you can't miss its distinct warning alarm and even on the lowest setting is very loud.  It was produced primarily for storm spotters and sold to the public.  It is rubber armored and very rugged.

Is this a trend for the North land, getting missed once again.. Should I water the lawn????????

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It is not a trend, I promise, but it will seem like it until you get a good thunderstorm.  Maybe tomorrow night.

Gary

Gary, Jeremy, Brett, and Jeff your the producer so I'm sure you were there last night too. You guys did an awesome job and I was so excited watching you and the storms coming so close to me last night. then you guys would say you were going back to regular programming and I was like "no dont!" lol It was a very exciting night for me last night and I thank you guys and sky tracker for it. SEE YA!

Jonathan **************** Jonathan, Thank you for watching last night! It was interesting to say the least. If there is severe weather we will be there for you and everyone! Jeremy

Kimberly,
 I have the same one. There is a switch on the side that should say alert on/off. When you switch that to on, you can have it on weather/snooze, and it will come on with the alerts. Someone probably accidentaly flipped that switch. On the right side toward the back, it should say "Weather radio" and then have  switch (black) underneath it that says "On/Off". Turn it to the on position and it should work fine.

CB Sig Severe is over 100 in parts of NE KS

I am not sure which of these images is more impressive for tomorrow...

Is it the 984mb surface low in June?
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa5_ppt+nc+36

Is it the 500mb vorticity pattern with negative tilt?
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+sa5_p500mb+nc+36

Or...could it be the obsene SRH values of >700?
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+helic+nc+36

All with >3000 j/kg of CAPE
http://ruc.noaa.gov/disp2.cgi?/w3/rapb/plots_13km_dev/.//+cape+nc+36

Joy.

foodl3...now its just a matter of cap...

;-)

I am responding to the post about the miroburst in Lee's Summit...  It was in May 1996 not 1997.  It was Memorial Day weekend.  It happened at Raintree Lake.  If that microburst had continued on for four miles to the NE, it would have hit my oldest brother's subdivision.

I will worry about tomorrow tomorrow.  No predictions from me.

Last night was scary seeing the wall clouds.  But I guess that the dynamics were not  there to actually produce tornadoes.  But it was scary nonetheless.

I just spent the morning at St. Lukes.  I need to take care of things today so I can participate in the blog tomorrow to track any storms we may have.

Have a great day, everyone! :)

Kristi

Greetings from Fulton Missouri...

Hoping all is calm there..

Any tips for what it will be like around here this evening?  Not sure where exactly we'll be, but we're aiming for somewhere between here and Lake Ozark State Park.

Thanks and see you all again
Stacy N the Gang

CB Sig Severe is over 100 in parts of NE KS

Does it look like the severe storms for tomorrow are KC and points north?

I'm woried about my barn roof coming completly off if we have another 60+ MPH winds. Waiting on the insurance adjuster to come out. And have only been able to get 1 repair person to come out and give an estimate. Guess there is lots of Damage around the La Cygne - Osawotomie area.

There's a Cu field beginning to devolop over the area guys. that's what eroded the cap yesterday. any thoughts from anyone?

0.06" liquid precipitation over in East Lawrence last night. This is from the phalanx of storms that drifted East/Northeastward.

will be back to check out replies next wifi spot I find.

Nope Roberto, that switch has always been on. That is the first thing I checked when it wouldn't work.  That is why I am confused. Maybe it is malfunctioning and I need to get it replaced.

Tomorrow's setup looks to be a particulary violent setup. Anyone in the Kansas City area should pay very close attention to the storms out west in the afternoon - if the storms remain discreet the tornado threat could continue well into the evening. If the storms congeal into a squall line, an isolated tornado threat and VERY damaging wind threat (90MPH+) could easily develop. Large hail and very heavy rainfall over already saturated areas are another possibility as well.

We are not in the Moderate risk at this time, but the K.C. area is now in the hatched area with most of the metro in 15%+ severe risk (Platte county in 30%+) by the SPC.

no thoughts about the cu field? okay no thoughts about the cu field.

I know this is off-topic, but I had to write in.  A "cooler than average summer", huh?  Where is it?  I don't remember seeing 90-degree heat and humidity this early on in the summer.  Usually it's July before we see stuff like this.  What's the deal?  

KCWXGUY - where did you find the Pleasant Hill discussion?  Can you please send me a link?  Thanks!

Hey Scully it's me...The Truth is out There.

oh dear, this is when its gets confusing and technical... LOL

Hail and foodle, what is a CU field?

and kcwkguy.... wow! great posts

Yeah, the system seems to be speeding up a bit too which would put the threat here earlier in the evening as opposed to 1-3am. Looks like the SPC is trying to figure out if it is going to be a full blown Tornado outbreak or a derecho(squall Line) event or a combination of both.  Either way, it looks like we are going to see some major activity here. By looking at the 0300Z parameters that Kcwxguy put up, I think it could be Tornadic all the way into the mid morning hours Friday because all the wind speeds and shear at all levels are forecast to increase dramatically. This could be the big one for 08' but things do change so we shall see.

You are not invisible HAIL,  If I knew enough I would chat with you over it!!!

High risk area is very possible if the current trends continue.

lol thanks rm! seriously though Gary, Jeremy whoever is out there at the moment. the Cumulus Field is getting subsantial any thoughts on this eroding the cap and maybe have a repeat of last night? Right now there are no Mesoscale discussions up but I wouldn't be surprised if we got one soon.

Weatherdude. Cu field= Cumulus field. it's a large field of Cumulus clouds that develops in a warm and unstable air mass. and right now we are capped which is going to prevent thunderstorms from forming but if the cumulus persists it will erode that cap. so that's why I'm wanting to talk to people about it.

if you can find a visable satellite to look at it's clearly there.

lol thx hail... im still young have a lot to learn, lol :D

and im worrried, im done with rain for a while hopefully... but i doubt it... im just worried about my garden that i have!

but yeah, the clouds out there look like they are building/darkening

no problem. but yeah if these cumulus continue to build the cap will erode away and we may have more thunderstorms break out. I would like someone who is smarter than I to confirm this for me.

References to 1974 is a STOUT claim, but based on what I see...possible.

I pray not.

High risk area?? Isn't that rare for the SPC?

Scully,

W/all due respect how long have you lived around here?  Summer often starts in early May - i can recall several Memorial Day weekends being just miserable w/heat and humidity.

I don't quite understand why bloggers are hyping the outbreak for tomorrow in our area. It looks serious in in Kansas, but the KC metro looks like we could avoid the brunt. The models indicate the precipitation practically shuts off once it gets to the state line. If you look at the outlook you can see how the moderate risk/slight risk are a very sharp cut off. It goes from 45% risk to 15% risk in just a few miles. Just doesn't look impressive for the KC area. Maybe if it holds together overnight, but I doubt it will make it here.

Deadly storms such as the 1974 super outbreak can and will happen again," said Ken Haydu, meteorologist in charge of the National Weather Service's forecast office in Wilmington, Ohio. "The people who experienced the super outbreak have an important story about tornado awareness and preparedness to pass on to later generations."

There is the reference      you just never know

Twister there is no hype- the precip and threat continue through the entire State of MO and on East from there- the action will start in KS tomorrow afternoon- this system deserves attention- the models you are looking at are probably for a specific time period..we will get storms- how severe just depends on the set up in KS tomorrow- again- this sysem deserves attention..

JPnKC, I know it deserves attention, but more so in Kansas. I am looking at the GFS, and NAM models. It is very clear the precip is either less concentrated, or less intense once it gets to the state line. This is why I am saying it looks like the storms wont make it here, storms tend to weaken overnight, but not all the time.

On the Cu field here are my thoughts.  I have just concluded my outdoor work for the day.  After watching the Cu field start up around here in Jefferson County around 9AM, it is continuing to grow, size and height. I am not sure what my instruments were reading earlier, but right now I have a temp of 93.7, dewpoint is 73.4, humidity of 52% and the barometer is 29.51 falling, winds are 6.7 WSW and gusting to 9.2.  I tell you, it feels very sticky and much worse than yesterday.  The front has definitely lifted north.  Some of these clouds have got to be pushing 20K, a cap busting event in the making.

I'm waiting til tomorrow to worry about tomorrow....Right now. I'm focusing on what's happening right now. everybody is turning their back on the potential right now.

Storms will still be to the north of KC metro though right???

David I agree with you...and there is a disturbance pushing out of colorado JUST like yesterday. Everyone is turning there back on the potential for today. but I think people should still be cautious today.

One more thing, according to the radios from KHP and KDOT their is an entire fleet of weather spotters along and on I-70 between Topeka and Goodland KS.  All those folks with their mobile doppler and such wouldn't be there without cause.

Tomorrow's forecast: a super-outbreak followed by a hypercain due to a massive solar coronal eruption that will push the Moon closer to the Earth causing a negative tilt in the magnetic axis which will shatter the Mid-Atlantic rift in two releasing tons of magma, CO2 and sulphur dioxide prompting immediate glacial conditions in the Northern Hemisphere that will produce a disproportionate amount of ice to form leading to a wobble in the orbital trajectory which will propel the planet - less the Moon - into interstellar space where we will drift for millions of years.

Friday's forecast: sunny with a light breeze.

Sheesh!  Tomorrow will be what it will be.  Let's not start frothing at the mouth and predicting the end of times.  Keep an eye out, stay sharp and don't lose your cool.  

As for anyone wishing for a violent outbreak, take another look at that bank footage from Parkersburg and imagine that being the living room of a loved-one's home, a senior's center or day-care.  

Don't wish that on anybody!

I really can't believe we don't have a mesoscale discussion right now.

lol wasp.

I understand what you to are saying, but I am sure that the SPC and Gary's team aren't just ignoring it. I don't know much about this stuff. However, there must be a factor that you are taking into account. The stroms tonight will be over eastern and northern Kansas from what I am understanding.

as long as they stay away from me!  Although I dont wish that weather on anyone.

Kane...I'm sure they aren't either. but we are under nearly Identical circumstances as yesterday....there was a disturbance coming out of colorado yesterday. there is today. we are in the warm sector today. we were yesterday. we are capped today. we were yesterday. The cumulus clouds that formed yesterday eroded the cap. and now the same thing is happening RIGHT now.. see what I'm saying?

Meso for Neb.

I think we are capped more than yesterday though. cuz the cumulus aren't getting as tall. but that may change and maybe then a meso discussion will be issued.

Thursday... You Guys are Underestimating it around KC.

Look for a High risk to be put out in Central KS and in Nebraska.

The Cap Will Erode Quicker than you will think. Storms will hit them metro about 8PM.

The Clock is Ticking. Get Prepared

That sounds like the ned of the world. :(

My Brother Finally Got off his game. Last Night was exciting. Over 4 inches of rain fell at my location in Olathe.

I see that we are now in the Slashed area for significant weather and that we in JOCO is on the edge of 30%.

I do think that this will be something to watch for. There talking about a Squall Line forming from Kansas into Missouri. The Potential is there for some quick spin ups.

Some of my lawn is flooded. MY Gazebo Has Metal that is now Bent because of the rain/hail/wind from last night.

Overall Tonight I will keep a close eye on things. Tomorrow Is Film day that I will be Filming Weather in Olathe on my Camcorder. If anything is caught I will get you the video.

chfs you can make people like you if you want. it's your choice..

Okay. I need some help. A little while ago I saw there was a meso discusion for Eastern colorado. It is gone now and there is one in Nebraska. My question is why did the one in Colorado go away?

Come on people. I wouldn't say this event tomorrow is overhyped. Sure, things can change but this one is not like every other severe weather episode. Being a Storm spotter and having decent knowledge of how to read weather maps/ upper air charts etc... Tomorrow is going to have to be watched. Its true that you really shouldn't worry about something that hasn't happened yet but the reason the 1974 outbreak is referenced is because this will probably be the strongest, most dynamic system we have had in some time. Look at the outlook tomorrow morning @ 1630Z(11:30am for the layman) Look at spc.noaa.gov, look at the 1 day convective outlook and I am willing to bet we will be on the eastern edge of a High risk area. Not trying to scare anyone but there are plenty of facts out there that point to this. Just pay attention to the weather tomorrow and be safe. Dry air coming north towards us right now so chance of convection in the immediate K.C area is a about 20%

cumulus busting a little taller now.

I swear, by next year I'm going to have a safe room/storm shelter.

Hail,
Thank you. My thoughts exactly
Becky

The last two years we have gotten above 90 degrees in APRIL. So no, the heat is not starting out early. And the "cooler than normal" temperatures this year may not seem that cool, because the humidity will be high. So we will get less of the intense, dry 105 degree heat, which could mean lower than average temps...but it could still be in the upper 80s/low 90s and humid a lot.

because the replaced the meso with a tornado watch in colorado kane. =)

Okay. I need some help. A little while ago I saw there was a meso discusion for Eastern colorado. It is gone now and there is one in Nebraska. My question is why did the one in Colorado go away?

Kane. During Mesoscale Discussions. It is only up for a certain Ammount of time. (Usually 2 hrs.) I think...  Anyway they get rid of it once there discussion is over with after the 2 hr time peroid is up.

Kane, once they issue an actual tornado watch, the meso discussion goes away.

There is some green on the radar right over kc. very small though

the MD was canceled, because the watch was issued in its place.

chfs327... welcome back!

LOL

okay thanks all. I didn't see the watch. Yes I am proud to be a moron.
I always say its better to be mor-on than mor-off

Becky I don't know what I did but your welcome.=)

oh shut up kane. this stuff is tuff to learn!=)

Tommorow is travel day to fort scott by 2 and pittsburg towrds evening, what should I expect

Does anyone know where Sean Wilson might be today?

chfs i am surprised you were not on yesterday, it seemed like a good time to post for you. sure missed your smiley face!

wasp-LOL

mammatus- will be watching tomorrow but hoping that it isnt a major outbreak.

Gary-
I know it is aways out but with the situation tomorrow do you think that St Joesph will be at risk?  We live in St Joe and we were in Lees Summit visiting friends last night while the sirens were going off....I did not enjoy the experience. I was driving and pulled over to a local buisness to gain shelter. Long story short my husband is going out of town tommorow and I will be home with the three kids...trying to decided if I should make him stay!!!:)

J/K Hail.

Hail. You comment on Chfs is what she was talking about.

Welcome back Chfs327. Glad you can Join Us. <.<

no idea where sean is. i assume he's up in Neb. storms just fired up there.

I've been trying to teach myself to read soundings/Skew-Ts (I'm not sure yet if there's a difference).  It's truly a daunting task with no guidance!  I'm speculating the difference between today and yesterday is that we don't have the warm and/or stationary front near enough to us and we don't have the outflow boundary approaching from dying storms thus, there isn't anything to force ascent, in turn there's nothing except surface heating to break the cap.

oh gotcha! yeah he doesn't learn very well.

Another tornado watch issued north central Kansas and most of Nebraska

that's true zazel.

i hear you Zazel Skew Ts are hard to understand. any one got any pointer or tips on them

I know kane i was kiddin too.

Thursday presents the strong potential for dangerous storms; that much is obvious.  SPC still has us in a slight risk (for now), yet some of the comments on this blog seem to treat the system as though KC is in the bullseye.

So here is my question.  Given the setup that we see now, is the KC metro area more, less, or equally likely to see the MOST severe weather (compared to Topeka, for example)?  Also, are some of you predicting or seeing evidence that they system will shift to the East and therefore center itself on top of KC?

Does any one else the rain on the radar? It is small and very light but it is there.

We plan on spending the whole day chasing for Thu's expected outbreak.  For those on SWIFT WX our call sign is PLA414.  We don't have a chase cam yet, but you can watch us on the SWIFT map to see where we'll be.  We'll be running both SWIFT and Baron on the laptop.  last night Baron was showing alot of sustained false TV warnings for counties N and S of KC, that's why we have both in the rig.

If the chase ends up in KC, we'll pass on reports here in the blog from the field as well as through the espotter network and by cell to the KSHB WX center if need be.  We'll be shooting video in HD also.

let's hope we have a great day tomm....above all...a safe one for everybody.

Jeff ***************** Jeff, Please leave your phone number with Gary so we can reach you on Thursday if needed. Also, make sure to check in tomorrow. Jeremy

MrMojo. A lot of people on this blog don't know what they are talking about. it's better just to take it as it is right now and wait until to tomorrow to see if KC is in the threat but if there are any precautions you can take go ahead and do them.

that's false echos kane

Off to work all be safe.

kane a lot of what your seeing on the radar is up in the clouds. and not at the surface.

Sure?

lol

Good luck Jeff!

Skew-T interpretations

http://www.theweatherprediction.com/thermo/interpret/

yeah I'm sure. it's like birds and insects also. your safe!

I am still wondering about the tornado threat, becasue it looks like the storms are going to be coming inn after midnight and before 3, which would make me feel the tornado threat would be lower, even though the low is supposed to be VERY strong and we will have severe weather, I still think the main threat will be large hail and especially damaging winds. Kimberly: Your weather radio must be defective! I would get a new one before the storms tomorrow.

Thank you HailJohnathan! for that wait and see comment.  my daughter has been very worried about the storms that have been going through this past week and what will happen today and thursday. I have been trying to tell her the same thing but she still worries. she reads this bolg as well as watches weather reports. she have loved weather since she was little.

CU field really growing here north of the river!

your welcome Autumns!

i'm becoming less worried about widespread storms today because of what one of the other bloggers said. all we have really is day time heating and the cumulus clouds out there are not growing very tall at all and I think we have a strong cap for them to break through.

I am a little but confused. Is the outbreak being forecasted for the viewing area or out in central Kansas?

Jeremy,

I just sent an email to your individual addy's from my hotmail.  Let me know here if you don't get it or your spam filter eats it and I'll just phone you guys direct.

Thanks.

Ok now I am confused...I thought that someone said earlier that the cap was about to break..

Lizbaugh: Today, the main severe weather threat, and the outbreak, will be to our northwest. Later on today, there is a chance of some isolated severe storms with marginally severe hail and winds. The greatest threat is tomorrow when there could be an outbreak overnight in the viewing area.

Becky,
   From what I can tell, the cap is soon to break to the NW of hear. The cap is very strong here, and may take into the late evening hours to break, and that is when there is an extremely slight chance of storms in the metro area. (tonight)

Zezel - a skew-T is just one method to read a sounding.  For many purposes, the terms are interchangable.

Not sure I fully agree with your analysis..but you are on the right track.  Today this area has nice mid level lapse rates..so lift is not a problem...

Focus of some type is the issue.  If you look at the SPC hourly mesoanalysis, the cap over the region is eroding nicely along the front and slowly south.  

This is why areas to the north and west have the convection at this time and the watch.  The tool I use for soundings in the rucsounding page.  Based on this page, it looks like closer to 23z and beyond a steady trend of erosion..

I would expect to see more development after 0z should it happen.  I am not thinking the metro will be impacted this evening as the winds are progged to remain southernly without any surface convergence until near the Nebraska border.

Also the warm front is moving along with the height falls from the deveoping surface low.  This will continue to move north as the low continues to deepen and slowly move NE for the staging tomorrow.

Roberto, your hunch is very good..but tomorrow is a bit different.  Normally, for most thunderstorms, there is a decrease in strength as the instability drops with the heating of the sun..however, and what some folks forget...instability isn't the only game in town for storm development or to sustain them.

When you have a deep level of upper and lower air support, that alone with minor or moderate instability can keep them going..

For tomorrow, we will have plenty of that...and some, and will have what is progged to be 3K+ CAPE values.

What is coming out of this storm would look about right in March...not for June with so much more moisture and temperature.

thanks roberto!
becky

Really nice line of well defined storms now from just west and north of Grand Island back to the sw to McCook.  The Cu is looking much less impressionable here in Jefferson County KS.  Still there but we have about 70% as compared to 90% at 1:30PM

For Thursday's storms, when do you think the rain will start?  My roof is supposed to be repaired before noon tomorrow, assuming its not raining.  I'd just really like to get it repaired before more rains moves in. ************ Thursday is more of a evening/night event. Jeremy

I would say no rain till evening

Some of those cells in Nebraska have a 4500j CAPE value.  Nice big clouds up there.

Scott,
 Thanks for jogging my memory- I had a little mental lapse there! I know that instability isn't the only factor, and tormorrow, with all the other factors being very supportive of tornadoes, the threat could be there, but I am still thinking that the greatet threat will be very damaging winds.

Jeremy/Gary team - get your rest...

;-)

is there a prediction for tornadoes for thursday's storm? any %s or significant chance? for the one that hit kck in 2004 there was a high probability for tornadoes that day.
c

Thanks Jonathan....sorry I missed your post.

Scott, I'm surprised you can't see the front is actually a stationary front that will continue to meander up and down as a cold or warm front.  Otherwise, it's just a stationary front that willl continue for a while.  It's the same pattern as 93.  Again, I'm just surprised you can't see the classic set up.......as far as MO River flooding...

Currently sitting in Belleville,KS and am unimpressed by what I have seen so far. Convection ongoing north of I-80 in Nebraska seems a little disorganized, however, a T-Box is now issued east of there to near OMA.

I dont really like the idea of shooting up to I-80 in Nebraska as I have already spent way too much money chasing this insane season and Gas ISNT getting any cheaper. Plus the fact, I already have a room booked in Salina this evening to chase tomorrow's very enticing event.

I wont spend too much time joining the circus here about tomorrow until tomorrow gets here, but will chime in on a few thoughts while I sit here.

I completely understand the hesitancy shown by many of you about "hyping" tomorrow's event. However, I do feel this could impact the KC area significantly. Yes, the SPC's cut-off from 45% to 15% is sharp, but you have to remember this is only the Day 2 outlook. They issue severel outlooks on the "day of" and that area will likely shift eastward as the day progresses. By late evening, the KC area could feel some impacts(potentially significant). Some people will intrepret the discussion of a potentially dangerous event as "hype", I see it as preparing the public for the worst.

Again, this is just my opinion. I do feel tomorrow has "big tornado day" written all over, but I do see the SPC's concerns about storm mode. If it remains supercellular, a HIGH risk is very likely for parts or the plains tomorrow. I will be out chasing tomrrow, hoping to add to my torando count for the year. Its been a crazy season.

Lets hope damage to life and property are non-existent. However, chances of that, dont appear pretty slim ATTM.

Some of those Nebraska storms are really getting their act together now.  One cell nw of Grand Island is pushing 3.25" hail.  Slow movers like the KS and MO storms yesterday.  Most of these cells are moving around 15 knots.  Gonna be a long night up there.

Wow, this really fascinating today, although the last few entries made my eyes glaze over since I'm still learning the terminology...

I'm just hoping right now that my husband gets his work done down in SE Kansas EARLY in the day so he has a chance to get back home before all this develops... I know he's concerned about his boat, which is sitting in our driveway, getting hailed on... and I'm not allowed to attempt to cover the durn thing with a tarp due to my inability to get on a ladder at 23 weeks pregnant! Harrumph! (People seem to think that I can't have ANY fun when I'm pregnant if it involves me and ladders!)



Have to share a funny from last nights storms... I have that handheld weather radio ya'll were talking about earlier in this blog, and took it downstairs with me last night in case I had to run to the basement--I'd know when the all clear was called. Well, at one point, I had it on the floor, and the alarm went off. Despite the fact it'll go for 2 minutes sometimes, I ignored it, but my puppy didn't. He had to get up, go over to it, stare at it while cocking his head, nose it a few times, growl and jump at it, too. When it was still going off, I guess he decided if I wasn't that concerned about it, he'd go check out what was going on out the patio door (just looking through the glass.) But, it was still going off, and he eventually went back to the radio and did the same routine, until the thing finally went silent! :) I had one ear listening to Gary, but I was laughing pretty hard by the time my puppy came back to me... :)

NWS EAX does not sound real concerned about the situation in their forecast discussion:

Quoted from NWS:

FOR THURSDAY...THE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE OUT INTO THE PLAINS. AS THIS OCCURS ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO IGNITE ACROSS THE DRYLINE THAT WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LENDS WEIGHT TO THE IDEA THAT STORMS WILL
START AS SUPER CELLS ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
EVOLVE INTO A QUASI-LINEAR LINE OF STORMS AS IT MOVES EAST INTO FAR
EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI. PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED STORMS CURRENTLY PEG THE ACTIVITY MOVING INTO THE EAST
KANSAS LATE IN THE EVENING HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE A POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY. FRIDAY MORNING WILL SEE OUR FORECAST REGION JUST BEHIND
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THAT
MIGHT BE LEFT SHIFTING EAST QUICKLY.

Agreed Adam. If everyone on this blog could read forecast maps, I think they would understand the seriousness of the situation but that is best left to the Chasers and meteorologists. 1630Z and 2000Z outlooks tomorrow will tell all. This will be significant and I really dont see any low level cloud cover forming due to the very strong surface winds so instability will be over the top. Its amazing to look at the forecasted wind speeds tomorrow. There is no doubt in my mind there will be a high risk somewhere nearby and hopefully life and property will be spared to its fullest.

What areas are predicted to get these storms, if they happen?  North of the Metro, South, both?  I travel from Lenexa to Lee's Summit during evening rush hour, is there an ETA yet?  I know we will know more tomorrow, but I like to plan ahead since I have 2 small children that ride with me.

Thanks!  I am learning a lot.

In thinking…I pondered about the LRC and this storm tomorrow.

Here is what the 500mb will look like tomorrow…

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/images/gfs_500_036l.gif

54 days back…
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/cgi-bin-spc/getuadata.spc?MyDate1=080411&Time1=12&MyDate2=&Time2=12&Align=V&Levels=500

Here was what happened that day….
http://w1.spc.woc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/events/080411/index.html

Dunno..probably nothing..but interesting all the same.


GaryB, its not that I don't see some similarities but I really haven't focused on it yet.

Its nice to see the NWS remaining calm and consistent..here are some other model outputs that might be of interest to some...

http://wxcaster2.com/CENTRAL_ETA212_TORNADO-MASK_39HR.gif
http://grib2.com/wrf/NW1_WRF_ATMOS_STP_39HR.gif
http://wxcaster4.com/nam/CENTRAL_MESO-ETA212_ATMOS_ESRH_33HR.gif

Dunno..guess we will see when they get here, but seems to be a bit clearer to storm mode...

wow it is so hot and humid outside. but i don't see any sign of the cap breaking and the visible shows the cumulus field weakening.

Scott-

Interesting links you have there. I am too puzzled about the storm mode question tomorrow. 500 and 850 winds look very impressive. I would like to see the 850 winds a little more out of the SE to create a little more convergences along the N/S oriented Dryline boundary, but nevertheless, I think supercells are a solid bet.

f00dl3,

I will take your EAX forecast discussion and raise you two...LOL

TOP - http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=TOP&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

"BY 18Z THURSDAY...110KT UPPER JET MOVES INTO WESTERN KS.  700MB
WINDS ARE GENERALLY 60KTS OVER CTRL KS WITH 850MB WINDS BECOMING
50KTS BY 0Z.  THIS NOT ONLY LEAVES 55KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN
PLACE...IT ALSO SETS UP AN ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM MOTIONS TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST ON THE ORDER OF 40-60KTS...  ...  EXPECT A LINE
OF STORMS TO FORM ACROSS CTRL KS AND TRAIN NORTH THROUGH THE LINE AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM SLOWLY PUSHES EAST. CAPES IN THE 3000J/KG RANGE
COUPLED WITH SHEAR WILL MAKE PRIME ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS.  THIS
WILL ALSO BRING POTENTIAL PROBLEMS WITH FLOODING AS STORMS
REPEATEDLY DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE LINE AND MAY BRING ROUND
AFTER ROUND OF RAINFALL...
"
ICT -  http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ICT&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

" A FEW LONG TRACK TORNADIC SUPERCELLS SHOULD ALSO STILL BE ABLE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE SHEAR PROFILES ARE THE STRONGEST I HAVE SEEN THIS YEAR OVER OUR FORECAST AREA WITH 0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 70KTS WITH 0-1KM HELICITY VALUES RANGING FROM 200-400 M^2/S^2. MIXED
LAYER CAPES WILL ALSO BE QUITE FAVORABLE WITH MIXED LAYER CAPES
RANGING FROM 2500-3000J/KG. THE BAD THING ABOUT THESE TORNADIC
STORMS IS THAT THEY WILL BE FAST MOVERS (RIGHT MOVERS AROUND
50KTS)...."

Well Mammatus its too bad you believe so many of us are idiots.  You know inside each one of us is thousands of years of evolution and exposure to these events.  We all have basic instincts.  I don't know how long you have had any interest in weather, for me it has been almost 40 years of which 29 have been as an adult.  I have been caught in tornadoes and exremely violent severe thunderstorms many times and I am still here.  Technology is a great tool but not our only tool.  I have lived here on the great plains long enough to know ny gut feeling has kept me safe and alive a long time.  I have chased and been chased many tornadoes.  Most of us are taking the threat tomorrow very real.  Many of us live in rural areas where we are for the most part on our own.  Many of us have witnessed rotation when so called professional and well seasoned spotters see nothing.  Why they can't see the rotation and debris cloud is beyond me.  What I am saying is we are not idiots and all of us have several GOD given instincts and talents.  How we use them is our choice and decision.  Mockery and off hand comments do not help any of us on this blog.  Forecast maps are great, but mean relatively little in the real world.  Any farmer with even half a brain will tell you on the plains the weather does what it wants when it wants and all the meteorological tools mean nothing.
Every hill, flat land, lake and pond change the weather suddenly.  NWS and every weather forecaster have been spending years and countless dollars figure it out over the years.  And still today one mans best guess is one mans worst forecast.

Well, I am just in shock to see that someone had sent this around to people at work... I hope that everyone pays attention to what goes on tomorrow-

****** Note this was in an email*****

Outbreak
Forecasters Warn Of Possible Tornadoes Thursday
POSTED: 11:20 am CDT June 4, 2008
UPDATED: 12:59 pm CDT June 4, 2008

KANSAS CITY, Mo. -- The National Weather Service warns of a possible tornado outbreak in the Great Plains Thursday with conditions similar to a deadly day in 1974 when 39 tornadoes touched down.
Computer forecasting models resemble those on June 8, 1974, when more than three dozen tornadoes touched down in the southern Plains and killed 22 people, including six in Emporia.
NWS meteorologist Robb Lawson said, "This event warrants more advance warning."
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Storm Prediction Center has been warning for days of the outbreak

****** Note this was in an email*****


I did some digging- and AMAZINGLY... part of the article was left off (not sure if it was intentional) but- still  It goes on to say that parts of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska might be placed in a High Risk area tomorrow...

that again is tomorrow... we will have 4 new outlooks tommorow- it's only a day away...

O wow. Ok. I have changed my thinking for Thursday. It is starting to look like KC is right in the bullseye, (storm is speeding up), according to the 18 latest model. Scott, what do you think of the latest run?

-----------------

We aren't even close to the bullseye.

Gary

Ok, my folks are still here. Last night was nerve wreaking for them. So if I go to work Thursday 7a til 7p will this be a safe time to leave them alone?

agreed David....But I still think we should just take the situation as it is right now because even today's forecast is still very inaccurate compared to tomorrows. it appears it's going to be a central KS event right now and maybe a squall line event for the KC metro tomorrow night but it's always more accurate to wait til the new Day 1 outlook comes out and more data is gathered I think we can all agree on that.

I'm sure the whole team is sleeping by now, resting up for tomorrow - if not, you should be!  But in tomorrow's blog, can someone who really KNOWS the weather and isn't just trying to scare everyone half to death, give even just an estimate of where the tornadic activity will be?  Like should we bed up in the basement with our dogs and not even try to sleep upstairs?  Thank you!  I'm a nervous ninny.  My friend got an email from somewhere comparing these to the tornados in 1974 - I remember I was living in KY then, and seems to me it's the same outbreak that just moved there, but we spent almost a whole day in the basement and were only allowed to go upstairs to get a toy or go to the bathroom.

I do thank all of you who know how to read the maps and the skies and who take the time to do it - for putting your opinions in.  Iknow you don't try to scare people on purpose - just I scare easily!

Davidmcg  Sorry to offend you, I don't remember calling anyone an idiot. Sorry if I implied that. Technology has come a long way but some still go by gut feeling or instinct or if cows are huddled together or whatever. Anyways, its about the weather tomorrow, not about pointing fingers. Technology is there for us to use, if we want to use it.

my older brother Dave is going to Junction City tomorrow so I'm worried for his safety. so it's not that I'm "thanking god" or anything that it looks right now to be a central KS event but right now it appears that way right now. I'm not going to do any analyzing until Gary comes out with a new blog and he says something for himself because really, he is the expert, I'm not saying we all aren't smart and know a lot but really he probly knows things we don't so lets just all calm down and just wait and see okay?

DAVIDMCG - thanks for the comment about those of us iin rural areas being on our own!  You got that right!  No sirens by me.  No TV when the wind blows!

Twister,

What are you seeing that is leading you to believe this? I dont see it....

Twister - you are within 24 hrs of the storm..throw out the standard mid-long range models.

Go to RUC and soundings.  In addition, keep an eye on the trends of the composites.

Last but most importantly - check the sats, WV, and radar trends..and last but most important..look out the window.

This approach will help you a bit with the precision.  Remember, the resolution of the NAM and GFS can leave much untold in a mesoscale analysis.

I love the SPC mesoscale products...coupled with a few other tools, this helps the most.

From Topeka NWS Hazadous Weather Outlook this afternoon:

STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE STATE THURSDAY. BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS...AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY UNSTABLE...MAKING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND TORNADOES ALL A THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. THIS HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. STAY TUNED TO
LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR UPDATES.

That is VERY strong wording for Topeka NWS....they are usually quite conservative in their outlooks.

Interesting all the same...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/18/fp1_030.shtml

As for tomorrow, I think the worst of it will be in central Kansas to start off, gradually working eastward towards us. The thing that is of concern to me, with my limited knowledge, is that conditions could possibly favor long-lived tornadic supercells that keep going even when the heating of the day is lost, due to the atmospheric dynamics that might set up. Tornadoes at dark are even more dangerous than normal.

It's still 24 hours out. Things can change. There is no need to panic...just be alert tomorrow.

WHOOps! sorry about that, that model was from a long time ago, it appeared my computer was not updating today. sorry about that! Yes I can see we are not in the bullseye.

When you watch the live streaming from severstudios.com and tornadovideos.net am I suppose to get audio?  I am watching the chase now and watched last night and was wondering if I have a setting wrong or if it is just streaming video with no sound.

Guys, the most important thing to do RIGHT NOW. is to know where the safest place is inside your home. I don't have a safest place in my home because I'm in a 1 bedroom apartment on the outside of the main building and it's on the south side but whatever. if you need to get supplies do it now. but lets not try and make our own forecasts that might scare people because tomorrow could be very dangerous for a lot of people but we don't know exaclty where yet. we know it's too close for comfort but we need to wait to see what Gary thinks. He's on in like 10 minutes okay?

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/ict/hwo/hwo.php?day=2

I havent seen much if any very significant outlooks this year.

This is the Hazard rating ICT is placing in part of there CWA including Wichita, Salina, Hutchinson

"VERY SIGNIFICANT RISK OR IMPACT. Could potentially injure and/or kill the most people and/or result in catastrophic property and economic damage."

Twister11- There have been NO Very Significant Outlooks from ICT this year.

Gary's On!

OKay...."People in the blog right now think we are going to get blasted tomorrow, WE ARE NOT!" Gary Lezak. YOU HEARD IT FROM THE MAN HIMSELF!

Gary,
You just made me feel like a big weight was lifted off of me.  I will keep paying attention to see if anything changes.  Thanks for all you and the team do.
Becky

PANIC IS A USELESS EMOTION PEOPLE!

Jonathan:  "we" as in KC...right?  Someone somewhere (central KS) might still....right?

yeah salina. Manhattan

What is blasted?

I just find it odd that both TOP and ICT are already sticking there heads between there legs, and yet KC has little chance of being significantly impacted? Is that correct?

Here's the facts if you missed Gary. Central KS. Dodge City to Manhattan and north and south will get Blasted by a major tornado outbreak tomorrow the way it looks right now. It will then evolve into a squall line past then and Gary's computer shows it weakening and completely dying before it gets to us.

I LOVE YOU GARY LEZAK YOU ARE THE COOLEST DUDE IN THE WORLD!

------------------

Wow, well, I don't know about being cool, but thanks.  Anyway, there is just so much hype for tomorrow's outbreak, and there will likely be one, but to our west. We still have to watch and see how it sets up.

Gary

well wichita has a right to stick their heads between their legs Topeka...maaybe not we'll see.

I didn't see Gary since I'm still at working, but I'd like to see Gary state here that whatever evolves over central Kansas will "weaken and completely die" before it gets here.  I don't buy that, although it would hold the line on KC missing everything.

---------------

It may turn our way and hit us, but not until very late.  And, the Powercast did have a new line that came in around 7 AM Friday.

Gary

zazel. I just watched him...i'm rewinding it and watching it again. I am not lying to you. and if you don't believe me watch him at six.

Keep in mind, not all of us live in KC!!!!

Anybody have any thoughts on what the weather might be like for the weekend down at Truman lake? I am going camping in a tent and not sure if we should go down Friday night or Saturday?

My feeling is that the Kansas City metro will stay out of the threat of severe weather tomorrow.  Like Gary said on the 5PM news, we are NOT going to get hit by this severe weather event.  It will all stay west of us.  I do think that a high risk will be issued for northern Kansas and Southern Nebraska tomorrow.  What everybody need to know is that we are not going to get hit by anything significant.  We may have an isolated severe storm or two tomorrow night, but not an outbreak here in Kansas City.  These are my thoughts right now.  

Have a great evening.

Jacob

Bewild, I felt the same way.  I didn't realize I'd been subconsciously holding my breath until Gary said the target zone is going to be farther out west.

Wow, Gary, thank you SO MUCH.  Be so nice to go to sleep tonight and not have the weather radio tucked under my pillow.

Jonathan,
Am I starting to rub off on you? :)  

I was asleep when Gary was on. :)  I have never felt that tomorrow was a big deal here as of now or a few days ago.  If you live in Topeka or westward, you better be on the look out tomorrow.  I will be helping to track storms from my place behind the monitor for our friends and neighbors in places like Salina, Manhattan, Wichita, and Topeka in Kansas.  I don't see the big deal for the metro area tomorrow as far as a big tornado threat goes as of right now.  Our big threat will be wind and hail as the storms will go linear by the time they reach us, IMO.  I am going to see how things evolve thru the night and tomorrow morning to see if I need to change my thinking.  

Tomorrow has been overhyped for the KC area by a lot of people, IMO.

Kristi... trying to be levelheaded as she wakes up from a three-hour nap

Grumpyred, I saw earlier you mentioned you had to drive out in to KS tomorrow... is there any way you can delay that trip?  Things could possibly be pretty stormy out there.

Does anybody know when the update for tomorrows severe weather is from the SPC?

k I'm rewinding again. he say's "here it comes right, MAAAAYBE NOT. There is some hope that the thunderstorms will do what our computer model show (which is weaken and die before they get here) it may clip nw missouri and redevelop late thursday night and friday morning but not as severe"

yes I had rewind that a BUNCH of TIMES!

the new day one comes out at 1 AM CDT

Grumpy...your very grumpy where do you live I'll tell you whether you have to worry or not.

Kristi...you are starting to rub off on me and these people are starting to rub me the wrong way cuz they don't freakin believe me.

I'm not grumpy, just hubby thinks so and let's face it he's delusional (sp).  I live west of Ottawa and going to fort scott by 2 and then on to pittsburg around supper time then back to ottawa.  

Please...lets not start...

It seems that the greatest tornado threat will be just west of here tomorrow. I do plan on keeping close track of things tomorrow.  Sounds like Kristi will be watching out for us also! :)

Mike in SW Topeka

you'll be fine Grumpy red you won't be affected hardly at all=)

Laura,
What time is your husband travelling to and from Pittsburg?

Kristi

Jacob calm down I was only kidding.

Mike,
I always watch out for everyone whether they know it or not. :)

Kristi

Mike don't you dare think that she's the only one watching...I'm gonna be here ALLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL day tomorrow!

Guys remember this is the way it looks right now...it could change but don't panic about the fact that weather is everchanging I said up there before. Panic is a useless emotion.

LOL - good to know that HJ!

Of course this set up will change a little, but I strongly believe that even if it does change, Kansas City will not be a major target.

thanks for your input

Mike you are in good hands buddy.

jonathan, i dont think people think you are lying. I think they don't believe the storms will die down, even though you watched gary say it 100 times. we still have plenty of time to see what is going on, so we all need to be calm. you seem to be getting a little emotional causing your own hype. settle down, lets watch the weather and see what really happens.

alright I concede...but you should trust Gary Lezak

say, is anyone watching the chase cams?

Jacob,
If you read what Jonathan is saying, you will see that he is saying that the threat for KC is not major but that the threat is greatest to our west.  Folks in Topeka and to the west of Topeka particularly need to be aware.  Not all the bloggers are from the metro area.  I have come to know Jonathan and I appreciate his enthusiasm...  He is just trying to alleviate the fears of some of the bloggers here in the KC area.  

I spend way too much time here at the blog. :)  Weather is one of my passions. :)

Kristi

Jonathon,
   I am with you, too. Looking at some rcent model runs, the storms do appear to weaken over the Kansas City area, and the bullsey is definately far, far, to our east. I still think there's a chance (because there is) that the storms hold together, but Iconsistently have though and still think the tornado threat will be quite low, and the main threat if we did get storms would be very high winds. It appears that the triple-point will move north tomorrow, and while the dry line will be strong, the threat of storms may have shifted elsewhere. As you, Gary said it himself on the 5PM, that the greatest threat is out west, and that we may not get any storms.

No Renee  I haven't gotten that far yet. :)

Kristi

did you all see the picture of the fire and lightening in the side view. amazing pic, whoever took that, it was awesome. (not the fire just the photo!)

storm -- i am watching chris on severestudios.  he is stopped right now at what looks like the edge of a town.  watching some lowering of the clouds.

I HAVE A FAN! Thanks Roberto!! lol Gary was on at 6 so I did just see him AGAIN! there is possible redevelopment in the wee hours of Friday morning but according to Gary not Nearly and strong.

Okay guys...I'm going to chuckee cheese where a kid can be a kid! PEACE LOVE AND WEATHER...I really like all you guys so don't hate me...

Gary's segment at six:
We may get some storms Friday AM real early but it looks like the storms that initiate in central KS as supercells in central Kansas will not make it here.  Nothing will happen before 9 PM around here.  But seeing futurecast, nothing will hit KC until 5 AM Friday morning.  That line of storms looks nothing to be like what will come across central Kansas.

Yes, things can change overnight but they won't change that much.

Thanks, Gary, for keeping a levelhead. :)

Kristi

I wonder where Chris is.  I assume he is in Nebraska.

Kristi

Kristi, I think you gave that link out first for the chase cams, and i'm addicted to them now, lol... thanks :0)  It's alot more fun to watch when there's out in the fields than in our back yard.
Kctchr, too bad we don't know where he is.  All I get is a question mark as to his location.

it looks like the sign said I-80 and highway 36?

yes, thank you kristi!  I grew up on a farm in nw iowa and my dad would go out and look at the clouds to see if we needed to "worry".  I never knew what to look for.  I have learned a lot by watching Gary on the news, watching the helicopter video, and now I can watch the live cam feeds.  .........Looks like they are going on I-80 again.  Craig is trying to intercept something also.  He is on a gravel road now.

I am addicted to, Renee. LOL  I usually stop watching when it gets dark because after dark there is not that much to see.

I wish Chris had a GPS location like a lot of the other chasers do.

Kristi

Hail,  you sound like my hubby...why fret over something you can't control.  My theory is I can control whether I am smack dab in the middle of it.  I just wish I knew more about weather (reading maps etc), just now crawling out from under the bed I've been hiding for years and peaking around getting curious.  Maybe if I educate myself I won't grow feathers and lay eggs at the mention of severe.      

Kristi, your such a guardian angel looking out for everyone.  Actually going to Arma, figured people would recognize pittsburg easier.  Probably about 4-4:30.  Maybe be there 2-3 hours.    Cell reception is hit and miss, I do have sidekick and can access blog, but takes forever with the little roller ball to get to the bottom of the blogs.  My biggest fear is getting caught in the middle of nowhere.    Thanks all Laura

I will listen to the moderator whenever he comes on at SevereStudios.com  A lot of times they will give the chasers locations.

Kristi

Laura,
He should be OK on the drive down.  He should be OK coming back too.  The major threat is off to your west and certainly off to the west of Pittsburg-Arma.  Yes, I know where Arma is. :)

Kristi

simplykristi,

I was not aiming what I said at anybody particular...it was just a general comment.  :)

Jacob

Jacob,
Jonathan had commented quite a bit so I didn't know if your comment was directed at him when he was trying to alleviate fears.  He just gets excited. :)

Kristi

For anybody who as not seen tomorrow's severe weather outlook, here it is.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Jacob

Thanks Kristi,
Do most people chase for the thrill of the hunt or do they carry instruments to measure things?

I just want rain!  Please bring St. Joseph rain!

Laura,
Many do it to relay info to law enforcement and the National Weather Service (NWS).  Some of them do it for the thrill of it.  Storm chasing is not for amateurs!

Kristi

kristi- i love the storm chasers video you got us all hooked on. i am too big of a wuss to go and actually do it. tomorrow should be interesting to watch. daytime chasing is pretty good and if things stay they same I am sure we will see something.

Jacob,

I think that's the one that was issued earlier today, looking at the UTC time.

kurt if i could scoop some of ours up from last night i would share, sure hope you get some plain old rain in the morning friday!

I'm sure most of you know this site, takes map a little bit to load.  But it shows all the spotters and below what they've seen  
http://www.spotternetwork.org/google.php

Gary we are deserate for a new blog update, 219 comments now.

I watched Gary at the 6pm news but forgot the timing for the possible storms in central Kansas tomorrow.  Can anyone help me with that?  I have a dear friend who will be traveling to Wichita tomorrow, leaving around noon.  She believes she'll arrive there around 3pm.  Should she be watchful of storms (well, obviously we should all be watchful of storms this time of year in Kansas :) ) or will they likely fire up to the west and north of her?  Thanks!  

C,
I wanted to go on a chase this year with Sean Wilson but due to circumstances beyond my control I can't this year. :(  I am hoping to go on a chase next year.

Kriti

Erin,

I wouldn't cancel the trip, but given that she'll be in the outlook area, and general area of T-Storms, I'd keep a careful 'eye' on the situation as I was driving.

Erin,
According to Gary, the storms should start forming around 3 PM in central Kansas.

Kristi

Great!  I will relay that information to her.  She is traveling for a wedding so postponing the trip really isn't an option :)  Just hope she makes it there before/if any storms pop up.  

Just tell her to keep her radio on as she travels.  But I feel that she should be OK as long as she leaves around noon.

Kristi

Well, I'm out of here for tonight everybody!

Have a great evening, and watch the skies tomorrow!

Jacob

Kristi  
I just want to thank you for keeping everyone updated.   I am a weather junkie like you, but dont take the time to help so many others out.   As this blog has grown, your interaction is refreshing and helpful.   I am sure Gary and the team agree as you answer many questions they would not have time for or have gone over before.

I wish you and your parents the best of luck
Joe

Joe,
I really enjoy helping people out here when I can.  The team doesn't always have time to answer questions especially with all the crazy weather we had last night.  I answer what I know..  I leave the analysis up to people like Scott.  That's not my forte. :)  I am fortunate that I have time to do it for now.  I know the time is going to come when I have to go back to work.  Right now there's so much going on on the homefront.  

Thanks for thinking of my parents and I..  I am going to update my journal on Friday for the entire week. :)

Kristi

Say, Gary? or anyone who's fairly savy with google maps?  

I had an idea, how does it sound if we had a blogger google map?  Where we could each pinpoint our approximate location for the rainfall totals.  That way when we give rain/precip totals it would be more exact.  Especially since we're spread out all over the place?

Of course, don't pinpoint on there exactly where you live, that's not a good idea I know, but perhaps the closest big intersection or through street?  

Whatcha think?  

Hey guys. I'm back hows it hangin everybody?!

I don't chase for a profession, I chase for thrill and I love it. It is so much fun.

Do you think we are gonna see a new blog soon?

I am watching a chase cam.  The storm on that cam looks plain nasty!

Kristi

Jonathan,
Please be careful when you chase!  

Kristi

Becky,
I am assuming there is no new blog because there is nothing to update.  I suspect a new blog will be posted either right before or after the 10 PM newscast.

Kristi

what chase cam Kristi?

OK Gary NHL Stanley Cup is on, severe weather not far away, wanna guess what time we will get to see you tonight or when you will finally get to go home?

I am Kristi, I chased two nights ago down south into Miami, KS then Bates and Cass and then home to Jackson counties in MO and it was amazing. the lightning was incredible, this was at 2:30 in the morning. I drive a subaru with all wheel drive so a rarely get into trouble. thanks for your concern Kristi!

OH, it was so cool also that night because I was down in rural areas so there were all these frogs and toads all over the roads when I got out of the rain and I LOVE frogs and toads!

Becky,
Here:  http://www.severestudios.com/livechase  I have been watching Craig Fisher's cam.

Kristi

Jonathan,
Just use common sense. :)

Kristi

thanks

Craig Fisher's feed has been spotty tonight but he has had some nasty looking storms on his cam.

Kristi

Kristi, did his cam go down?  I can't get that feed.

Yes, Renee, his feed is down right now.  I don't know if it will be back up due to impending darkness :(

Kristi

I do I know the structure of the thunderstorms very well. and If I know they aren't THAT severe or aren't severe I core punch it's fun and a thrill like no other!!!!!

check out craig's camera..nasty wall cloud

My 12yo daughter is at camp all week in Salina. They barely missed the baseball sized hail Monday on their way out.  They don't come home until Friday, so here's hoping they don't experience severe weather tomorrow!

Jonathan,
Just be careful, OK?

Elaine,
I would hope that the camp keeps a very close eye on the weather.

Kristi

Jonathon,
   It sounds thrilling and fun and all, but definately stay safe (just as Kristi said!)Have you ever corepunched an actually seen a tornado, by accident?

Also, Jonathon, I have noticed you haven't answered Kristi's plead to be careful! :) I also think you should be careful? :)

OKAY Kristi=)

Woops when I said I also think you should be careful I meant a period, not a question mark! Big storms up north near Omaha, some damage reported to the SW. I have an uncle very close to these storms! :-(

There's a possible tornado on the ground near Corning IA.  Serious threat there.

Kristi

I've seen rotation/developing wall clouds and things and one time I chased a super cell up I 35 to Bethany Missouri and saw a tornado cross I 35 but I was smart and didn't core punch that one. it was later rated an F 4

Thanks, Kristi! I am watching a live strem from KETV there. Jonathon, I'm glad you've got common sense! :-)

Jonathan,
Good thinking not to core punch a tornadic storm.  You would be asking for byg time trouble there.  Even the pro storm chasers watch from a safe distance.

Kristi

What's going on up in Omaha?

Kristi

New blog