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Very remarkable shot.  One wonders if the intense updraft created by that heat could have any effect on the storm above.  Bet no one will ever be able to research it though.

The folly of man to think that we can somehow overcome this sort of force. Only nature could produce such a beautiful yet tragic sight.

Nice looking view of what appears a downdraft on the right -- south side of the photo.  I have not been watching the spooter net or radar closely tonight, does anyone have an accurate count of the tornadoes today in Nebraska and Iowa?

WOW!!! Amazing photo

that is a really cool pic!

That's an incredible pic!  Great Job to whoever took that!

Gary, what a great photo.  Who took it?
Also, if it takes overtime for the Penguins to win, we'll have to have it.  Gary, just think.  If you were on the east coast, it would be even later.  I can't think of how many times I stayed up back east to watch Monday Night Football, which didn't start until 9:10, only to have to get up at 5 a.m. the next morning to -- what else -- play hockey at 5:45.

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Let's just hope it ends on time.

Gary

Thats just phenomanly eary, wow! Looks like a line will set up. I have this idea, it hast to do w/ the Greensburg Tornado and how they are rebuilding there town. If tornados destroy oother towns or at leat part, when they rebuild, do you think it should be madatory for them to rebuild a little bit greener? Tell me your thoughts on this idea please anybody! Thanks, Juba!

Amazing picture!!!

Hello, I have read the blog for a long time but this is my first comment. I am from Sedalia. Currently the SPC says that there have been 35 tornadoes today--11 in IA and 9 in NE. I think we're going to see that picture alot--might make national news.

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Welcome to the comments section of the blog, and we are glad that you have enjoyed the NBC Action Weather Blog.  Let us know if you have any questions.

Gary

That picture is just phenomenal.  My brother said he could see the smoke plume when he drove home from work between 9:15 and 9:30.

I have been tracking the storms across NE and IA.

Kristi

I have a camping trip planned this weekend at Truman lake-is there anybody that can tell me what the weather is supposed to be like Friday and Saturday. I'd hate to be caught in severe storms in a tent!!

My group of friends and I will be traveling down near Rolla (Richland, MO) Friday afternoon and spending the weekend floating the river.... My main concern is the high risk Friday afternoon - evening for our drive down. Weather team/bloggers, what are your thoughts on the weather outlook for our travels? Is it really going to depend on whether or not the storms can live through the evening in eastern MO or are there other things to look out for?

The amount of distance you can see that smoke plume is just amazing. On my drive to work, I was able to count at least 5 locations - pretty far from the plume - where I could see it.

I-435 Southbound right past the I-35 junction (Claycomo, MO)
I-435 over the Missouri River Bridge
MO-350 Eastbound just to the east of I-435 interchange
US-50 Eastbound just east of I-470 (Lee's Summit, MO)
Blue Parkway & Chipman Rd. (Lee's Summit, MO)

Also, it is visible from Maple Woods Community College, and the I-435 & MO-152 interchange (right on the cloverleaf from NB I-435 to WB MO-152), as well as North Oak & MO-152.

What part of Truman Lake you going to, Braysmama?  I am real familiar with the area down there.

Kristi

Great picture!
Since the SPC will more likely issue a high threat of severe weather over Kansas, does that mean the metro could (possibly) be under a moderate threat?

K,
Looks like a chance of storms down there Friday and Saturday.

Kristi

Gary, this picture reminds me of the fire in Edmonton in the 1990s which spun a tornado and, unfortunately, killed some firefighters.

Latest NAM shows the stuff holding together - though I have some doubts.

I think the main thing is the Kansas City Cap that seems to have formed since late May. Keeps the tornadoes out! (I'm all for that - the Northland had enough that first week of May).

Gary said at 5 (or so it is rumored on the blog) that the initial, strongest wave, was going to totally miss us. We'll see :-)

WOW!  What a finish.  I'm bummed that the Pens didn't score on the last play.  That was an exciting game.

That is the coolest pic I have seen all year.  I have been teaching preschoolers about clouds, we make a little book and make stratus, cumulus and cirrus with yarn and cotton.  They get a little freaked out during the day when the weather is crazy though.  I hope tomorrow is calm the storm Monday was really scary to them.

Kristy, we are going to Truman State Park. We have reservations for Friday and Saturday night and I really don't want to be down there if the storms are going to hit. I could put off going down until Saturday night if Friday night is stormy, and then just stay over Sunday night.

Braysmama, be sure you have a portable weather radio with you and a map is really handy too.

I am heading to Hutchinson Ks in the morning- my hometown- I will let you all know what goes on in S Central Ks-  I should be there around 1PM.

JP

Hey again guys. HI GARY! I know I professed my love for you earlier but I was just kiddin with you. but I do love you man your my hero and I'm dead serious that's why my wife and her mother went down to the studio and had you record a piece for our wedding video remember that? Yeah Your my hero man I love ya! that's a great photo also. as for the last photo yes I have common sense storm chasing guys! but I LOVE core punching when the hail is not large. It's a thrill! and yes I kept a safe distance from that cell that produced that F 4 in NW Missouri on May 29, 2004. at one time we accidentally got ahead of it and that was scary but we backed off it and it went ahead of us and we saw it cross the highway from probably 2 miles or so. it was backlit by lightning and just amazing the structure of the clouds on that cell was amazing!

I agree, Matt.  This was the best finals series in a long time.

Chance of storms thru Saturday morning down there, Braysmama.  That's the park a few miles outside of Warsaw.  Just as Renee suggested, take a weather radio with you.

Kristi

JP,
You might be in a good position to see some action.  Please let us know what you see.. :)

Kristi

That is a beautiful picture! Whoever took it should enter it in some photography contests.

I just saved that picture to my desktop it's awesome!

My brother is going to be in Junction City, KS tomorrow so I'm worried about him tomorrow but I told him of the risk tomorrow and I told him I'd call him if I saw something imminent.

Going storm chasing tomorrow!!! Taking my brother and Uncle, meeting with some of my mizzou storm chase buddies.

It should be great!
I'll send pictures!

Looks like I am going to miss the news at 10.  My dad is watching the Royals game. Could someone give me a brief synopsis of Gary's weathercast at 10:15 or so?

Thank you!

Kristi

Kristi I won't let you down!

LV be careful tomorrow! It sounds like F5's won't be ruled out tomorrow!
But have fun I ENVY YOU!

i will kristi

Kristy, thanks for the info. I may just wait and go down Saturday and stay until Monday. I love going down there. My grandparents had a lot down off of Z highway where we would go down every weekend and stay in a travel trailer so I know the area pretty well. :)

I definitely kn ow where Z is. :)  One of my friends has a place off of C highway in St. Clair County just three miles west of Iconium.

Kristi

JP,
Stay safe!

Kristi

I agree with Marlina. That photo should be entered in a contest. Amazing picture!

I'm really anxious for Gary to be on and for the new Day 1 outlook.

I wish that they issued the Day 2 outlook more than once a day. because on a day like tomorrow we want to know up to date information not info that's 24 hours old ya know?

Jonathan,
I think that the new outlook comes out at 1 AM.

Kristi

yeah I know WHEN it comes out I just am anxious FOR it to come out=) FYI to anyone who doesn't know the hockey game is over and the news is on and gary is on soon.

okay gary IS on RIGHT NOW!

CNN's web site has multiple photos of the same one above.  There are other outstanding photos.

Well Gary just listed to you on tv, sounds like you'll be busy most of tomorrow, better eat your Wheaties in the morning.  Red Wings must have felt sorry for you tonight and ended the thing thankfully.

Plus I was wrong.  I said this morning storms tonight Hiawatha to Atchison/St. Joe.  I was more than a little off.  Best predicition for tomorrow is that everybody is going to get to share the weather wealth in some form all across Kansas and eastern Missouri, lucky all of us.

Kristi...it's looking a little more ominous for our area around 10 PM to midnight and then storms develop looking more super cellular redevelop(on powercast) early Friday morning. IT DOES NOT show the line falling apart it shows them as super cells on power cast moving through the kc metro around 10 pm - 2 AM depending where you live in the KC Metro

Ok, I 'm staying up for you all to tell me what gary has to say then I'm off to bed. I have a feeling I won't be sleeping tomorrow night.

Chris Phillips took the photo, according to the CNN website.

Kristi

Hey Jonathan ~ what about the sw corner of Missouri. Are we in the game for tomorrow night?

My mom up in Lincoln was in the basement about two hours ago, while they were under a tornado warning.  My sister-in-law was out not far away with the three kids getting ice cream when the sirens went off.  I was talking to my mom when she got the call from my sis-in-law telling her she was on the way over.  Just sitting on the phone with her, hearing the sirens and waiting for the family to get there got ME scared.  I dont want to go through that tomorrow night, please.  I guess the tornado warning was mainly brought out because a funnel was spotting near Raymond, Nebraska.

Gary, do you have any thoughts on whether Lincoln will again be under the gun tomorrow night, affected by the storms?  

Gary changed his thinking from 6 PM.  I am taking a wait-and-see attitude about tomorrow.  I will visit SPC website when I get up.

Kristi

Kristi ~ I don't know if Gary changed his mind (i can't watch him) but the SPC keeps changing theirs. :-{

lorie It looks like on gary's powercast that they weaken a little bit more on the southern end but still keep a close eye but don't panic or anything cuz worry and panic are useless emotions Capish??

Kristi,is that false echoes to the east of kc or is that real echoes

Lorie,
Are you talking about the changes in Day 1?

Kristi

What time do you think the storms will start firing in central Kansas? I'm taking my sister to Wichita for a 10 a.m. appointment and I'm thinking we're getting out of town as quick as we can!

Let me look, LRCfan...  I am multi-tasking. LOL

Kristi

Dana,
Things shouldn't fire til after the noon hour. I would say things should start to fire between 1 and 3 but that's my own gut feeling and I'm not an expert like gary so I could be way off. but Gary's powercast showed nothing at noon.

So should I wait till tomorrow to see what Gary says about the storms that are going to move through to decide if I am going to camp out at my sisters house?  What are the chances of those storms being tornadic?
Becky

Are you talking about that area just to the west of St Louis, LRC?

Kristi

Capish, Jonathan. Ur starting to know me so well.

Kristi ~ I've watching the SPC Day 2 Categorical and Probablistic all day. It seems to be different all day.

Dana,
How long is the appt.?

Kristi

the only reason I think 1 and 3 is because it's going to be absolutley primed out there, it's going to be undisturbed from any overnight thunderstorms and it's going to be HOT and HUMID and just ready to pop early so 1 and 3 is my quasi expert opinioin =)

yes kristi it just seemed like it was popping up in central missouri.

Becky. I wouldn't cancel plans tonight no I would watch the newscast at 5 tomorrow and then make a decision. There is a slim chance storms coming through the area could be tornadic but they might be in a weakening phase but Gary said some storms will likely make it through the area.

I looked at a few radars...  Looks real to me, LRC.  I did notice that there was some cloud cover when I took my dog out about 30 mins or so ago.

Kristi

It's a doctor's appointment, so who knows! Last time I think we were there somewhere around 2-1/2 hours. Her appt. was initially scheduled for 2:30 and we had to change it. I'm thinking I am really glad we did that!!

Dana, My mom is spending the night in Wichita before heading home to Overland Park. I told her not to sleep in or linger over coffee. But I think the NOAA for Wichita says 4ish.

Lorie,
Outlook for Day 2 has not changed since I looked at it a few hours ago.  The update happens for that at 1 AM when it becomes day 1. :)

Kristi

Lorie,
no the Day 2 outlook has remained the same and it will be different when it comes out as a Day 1 outlook at 1 AM CDT

Becky,
Keep an eye to the sky and an ear to the weather radio.  If you need to go to your sister's house, it would not be until later in the evening.  Let's see what tomorrow morning brings first. :)  A lot of things can change overnight.

Kristi

Kristi you and I just said the same thing=)

Heres what Im putting together. I am telling what what gary said and show it against the compitation

Gary model indicates that things should start developing in mid kansas and form into supercells then they form into a line and exit toward Hiwatha and move north east. Then another line hits us by Friday Morning

Station #1 has Big Developement in Central kansas by 4 and race toward us and makes it to Kansas city by Midnight and the line stayes over us during the morning hours on Friday

Station #2 has the line forming around 1 tomorrow and head toward KC and hit the area inbetween 6-8PM and then another line forms and hits kc in the morning hours.

Station #3??  Didnt watch because i didnt feel like it,

There you go.


Also Station #2 had the Moderate risk basically Lawerence Westward when they had there telecast.

Dana,
I would be out of Wichita no later than 1:30 if it were me.  I suspect storms will start firing around 3.  

Kristi

So Becky, tell me about the Springfield chat. Were they all worrywarts like me or were there some knowledgable weather people? I might be watching **everything** tomorrow.

Jonathan,
You and I are on the same wavelength. :)

Kristi

By the way Gary, I'm going to your dog and Jog thing on sunday! I'm bringing my pekingese!

Kristi I said between 1 and 3 what do you think? ;)

thx Kristi I thought it looked real.

I think it's possible before three because It's absolutley primed out there, it's going to be undisturbed from any overnight thunderstorms and it's going to be HOT and HUMID and just ready to pop

Yeah, I checked the SPC at noon, 3, and just now. Don't they update several times a day ~ like it says updated at 17:00 (5 pm?) maybe I'm seeing things. I thought we were going to be in it, then we were out of it, and now we're on the edge. And sorry, WE meaning me down here in Joplin.

I say 3 that storms starting forming over central KS, Jonathan.

Kristi

Question for you all: I dont have an actual "weather radio" but I do have a Radio Shack PRO-89 Race Scanner that has Wx channels AND Alerts, or so it says.  I have never tried it before, so I can't guarantee it will work in the middle of the night.  Does anyone have ANY experience with the alert part of a scanner like this?  We are desperately trying to budget and even though actual weather radios are a great investment and not too much money, we really shouldn't be spending it if not necessary.  

Thoughts?

You are welcome, LRC.  I was surprised to see those echoes!

Kristi

that gut of yours is tough Kristi =)

Lorie,
You are on the edge of the slight risk, I think.  I would have to go and double check.  Sometimes they make adjustments to the SPC Outlook 1 in response to where the storms form.

Kristi

Emmysmom
if it has an alert mode on it. you should be fine as far as I can tell

Kristi. those Echoes over missouri look like winter warm air advection type echoes don't you think?

Lorie,
You are just outside of the slight risk area.  The action is going to be off to your north and west as it looks now.

Kristi

Kristi I would reserve that comment until the new day 1 comes out.

Emmysmom> I don't know anything about the scanner. I do have a weather radio. The bad side to the weather radio is it gives warnings for the whole counties thereby freaking me out unnecessarily.

Our local station (KOAM) has a new thing that I'm going to sign up for. It costs $6.95 a YEAR. It will call your house and/or your cell phone if there is a warning of any kind for where you live ONLY.  After signing up on the website, you put in your address and numbers where you want to be reached. It will call you ONLY if there's an alert for your address. I don't how far the service reaches, if it's a nation wide service, or if there's others around like. Check it out.

I was surprised to see them when LRCFan asked me about them.  

Must be because the front is well to our nborth.  I have been tracking a supercell in southern IA.

Kristi

What comment, Jonathan??

Kristi

I remember of march 12th 2006 the storms fired up early in the morning and then the main storm system 3 times that day, Thursday looks impressive, Friday looks like there is a good chance as well,That is a incredible photo. and funny comment Gary on the blog, no overtimes please LOL :P

Excuse my typing...  It is sloppy tonight.

Kristi

I know it will change and I'm not going to dwell on it tonight. My feeling is that it does't help to be just outside the risk area 'cause anything nasty in OK or KS usually comes our way. It's got to go somewhere, right?

Oh I know that supercell is MEAN isn't it? If you were to show someone a classic super cell for teaching I'd show that one.. that last time I looked at it the hook was dissappating but a few hours ago it was CLASSIC!

"Lorie,
You are just outside of the slight risk area.  The action is going to be off to your north and west as it looks now. "

I was just saying IN A POLITE way=) to maybe hold off on that until we see the new day one outlook. cuz that outlook is almost 24 hours old now

NBC's weather team should win an Emmy, Oscar or whatever they give weather teams. You guys rock! The coverage you guys had last night was awesome. Best in the city. I hate to say it because I do not want destruction or anyone getting hurt but the pictures that Capt Greg captures on these storm is incredible. Tomorrow will be wild and can not wait to see what see what you guys bring! Thanks for what you do! I will honestly say I would challenge this weather team against anyone in the country!

I just saw that the weather channel (I know I shouldn't mention them!) lists that same type of service. Our county purchased software to do that and offer it to county residents free of charge. I signed up just my cell phone since I have my weather radio at the house. I have to say my weather radio purchase is on the best purchases I have made. I LOVE that thing! It's not much to look at, but it sure works great.

John Moon I REMEMEBER THAT DAY! I Was in Lawrence, KS that morning. 3 different lines of supercells formed on the dry line that day it was insane!

Lorie,
That chat room was....how should I say it.....it seemed like it was full of young people ( no offence to any in here :) ) that just wanted to chat with others.  Some were giving info but it was NOTHING like this blog.  I asked a question like 4 times before I got an answer and it was a smart alec one.  It was like they were annoyed that I asked anything.  It didn't seem very controlled so I didnt stay in there long.  I just went to TWC web site and followed the storm and finally went to sleep after hubby answered the phone.  I wont go in there again.
Becky

OK I admit that I am tired. :)  That's why I used the words "as it looks now."  I know things can change with each outlook.

Kristi

Regarding supercell in IA:  I was watching a live feed from KCCI in Des Moines.  There has been tornadic damage with that storm.

Kristi

I just had to tell you Gary that that is possibly the best picture I have ever seen in my entire life. was this from one of your viewers or a photographer with the station. I really want a copy of this photo. any way to get ahold of it?

jonathan, if you are talking about the current day 2 outlook, it is only about 12 hours old.

So if I missed this in prior discussions, forgive me.  But where do all these storms, etc., fall in the LRC?  Or does it?  If so, does the LRC tell us when we may be able to relax a bit and not have to worry about storms on a daily or every-other-day basis?  I'm ready for plain, boring weather.

"Lorie in SW MO said:
I know it will change and I'm not going to dwell on it tonight. My feeling is that it does't help to be just outside the risk area 'cause anything nasty in OK or KS usually comes our way. It's got to go somewhere, right?"

Please do not dwell on it tonight...  You know that we will help you figure it all out tomorrow.  We will have a much better idea of what is going to happen tomorrow when some of us get up.  I am not staying up for the outlook update.  I am too tired. :)

Kristi

Fairway,
Go to that pic and right click on it and you can save it to your computer.
Becky

Okay fine twister SORRY! lol ITS STILL OLD! lol again

It was a photo that was submitted to CNN as well.  It was shot by someone named Chris Phillips. :)

Kristi

Mark, that picture is now my desktop picture.

That image is breathtaking. WOW!

Everyone should take a moment and review your storm preparedness plan for tomorrow night. All it takes is a little bit time now to make sure your loved ones are safe. Trust me, the worst happens in time so short - you wont believe it. Plan now, act now, secure now, you'll be glad you did should the worst happen. Do it now, dont wait.

Tomorrow night into Friday morning is going to be quite an event......

Becky,
That's why I did not stay long at all.  It was chaos in my eyes.

Kristi

Becky pretty much everyone in here is respectful and will answer questions except for one I wont mention names "COUGH" Chfs! lol

kristi I'm watching a possible cell merger in nebraska there is a storm tracking along I-80 about ready to run into them line of storms in eastern nebraska it looks like it will be fairly impressive.

Kristi,
I know it just seemed like a normal chat room with a little bit of weather thrown in.  If there was someone moderating it, it might not have been so bad.  I know that if this blog had one, we wouldnt let things like that happen in the chat room.  We are all too worried about looking out for each other. :)
Becky

You and me both Emmysmom. How about a nice steady drizzle during the night with no lightening, thunder, nothing windy. Just a simple slow and steady rain and be gone by 5am. Awwww, I can almost remember those.

Hail,
LOL.  Not too suttle now.  LOL.  I know we do run into a few that get that way in here but everyone else steps in and ends it. :)  I am telling you what though, last night I couldnt get connected to my sisters wireless internet and I went like 2 hours without being able to be on this blog.  I felt so lost...
Becky

That storm up by Kearney, NE, LRCfan?  I am tracking that on WeatherUnderground.  I love the radar there.

Kristi

Thanks Becky ~ I won't bother with it. I usually have 4 tabs open. This blog, wunderground or another really good radar, local noaa, spc, oh and maybe the live storm chasing videos.

I know that this is way off subject, but does anyone here ride motorcycles?

The picture also resides on my desktop--I just wish I had a higher resolution version of it--maybe Gary can post it sometime!

Sorry I've been a bystander tonight---Kristi I've been following that cell as well just south of DSM--its a classic supercell alright. I have a ton of family in DSM so I'm glad they were spared!

I'm anxious for the Day 1 update---but not near enough to stay up for it. :)

Wow south east Neb is getting pounded tonight

Yes,Kristt that is the storm I'm talking about,very interesting!!!

Lorie,
I am the same way anymore.  That just wasnt worth the time.
Becky

sorry Kristi I can't spell.

I'm off to bed. Going to dream nice drizzling rain. We've got the attic fan going and it's 76 degrees outside. Sleep well everyone. I'll yack with you in the morning before all H*LL breaks loose.

I do wish the radar on Wunderground was just a tad clearer when zoomed in, but hey, its so user friendly I can't complain!

kristi: please post the URL here - I would like to see what you are looking at - thx!!

Goodnight Lorie!

Becky. one thing you have to know about me....I am EVERYTHING EXCEPT...Subtle.. LOL

<-----powered by budlight

Becky,
Imagine if we had a chat room here,  oh man LOL  Even tho the blog can be slow, I am sooo used to posting to it.  I am following a chat of storm chasers, watching radar in NE and IA via WeatherUnderground, and monitoring warnings on NWS.

Kristi

That cell in Nebraska is transforming looks like it might be forming a bow echo.

Lorie,
Good night and see you in the AM!  Please do not dwell on tomorrow.

Kristi

I will take it, Mike.  Can't afford the fancy radar software.

Kristi

To those who are watching the storm in Nebraska, does it look to head to Lincoln?

NIGHT LORIE SLEEP TIGHT AND ALL THAT STUFF!

Kristi,
I think it might be a little crazy but since it posts faster it might be better in bad weather.  I dont know if I could follow along with all that LOL.

Hail,
You make me laugh! LOL

Well goodnight all.  I only got 2 hours of sleep last night...I need more than that.
Becky

I almost forgot to pay a bill..  It was due today.  Oh well  

Kristi

Which link, BoiseStateFan?

Kristi

This one you referenced here:

simplykristi said:
That storm up by Kearney, NE, LRCfan?  I am tracking that on WeatherUnderground.  I love the radar there.

G'night BECKY! SLEEP TIGHT AND ALL THAT BED BUG STUFF! STAY CALM AND DON'T PANIC. I'll be here tomorrow afternoon and evening to keep you calm!

the bills can wait the weather can't :)

It could, emmysmom, if it does not weaken.  But it is a ways from Lincoln.

Kristi

I'm confident that that line of storms will mess with that storm and keep it from being majorly tornadic before it gets to lincoln

I will mess up the blog if I give you the direct link. :(  Here's the main page for WeatherUnderground:  http://www.wunderground.com/  Just click on the state of NE for a list of cities in Nebraska.

Kristi

Very nice photo.  Maybe it will earn a spot in next year's calendar.

Thanks Kristi and Hail : )

It looks like it is merging with the cell to the east.  Let's hope it goes linear.

Kristi

during the merging process it good spin up a tornado on the leading edge like what happened with the bow echo here. that's what caused those ef 2 and ef 3 tornadoes near liberty a thunderstorm merged with the bow echo.

That activity that surprised us over central missouri has developed a nice thundershower just west of carrolton.

The storms to our east are starting to pop.

Kristi

I was looking at the radar on WeatherUnderground.

Kristi

I have been just reading and taking everything in but I have to pipe up and say I am so thankful that you guys shared Weather Underground with me!  It's the most user friendly and fastest updating radar I've ever seen, I love it. :)

Some intense weather just south of Kearney NE.

Kristi

LETS HERE IT FOR KRISTI!!!!!

wunderground.com good stuff THANK YOU KRISTI!! CLAP CLAP =)

I got the link from someone here I think.

Kristi

That storm by Kearney NE has gone linear...  Golf to baseball size hail with damaging winds.  It merged with that cell to its east.  I would still keep an eye on it for possible brief spin ups.

Kristi

I must go eat a snack and then head for bed.  I will be around tomorrow.  I should do some things around here thru the early afternoon before I start tracking storms. :)  If I know myself, I will be here on the blog.....  My therapy. LOL

Have a great night, everyone! :)

Kristi

I want rain, it is really dry here!

G'night Kristi!!! SEe you tomorrow!

where do you live Kurt?

Yes Kristi, your welcome for the wunderground link! lol :)

Now check this link, it is the superresolution data from the new radar upgrades they have made to the radar in Omaha.
http://weather.kskoellers.com/radar/stormtracker.php

David

If anyone wants, I can move that radar to where ever you want to look. Unfortunately, all the radars don't have the super res upgrade yet though.
http://weather.kskoellers.com/radar/stormtracker.php

Anyone who is watching, and knows what they are seeing, obviously Lincoln, NE will get hit with storms if they aren't already.  However, is it possible these storms can still be tornadic?

Hey ShawneeMike, on wunderground.com's radar, try turning the  smoothing feature on (at the bottom under radar controls). Sometimes that helps when you're totally zoomed in to take some of the choppiness out. On the other hand, it kinda makes it look too smeary (sp?) sometimes too.

that's a great page David!

wunderground.com is awesome. I have been using it for a few years. I like how it also shows rotation and storm tracks, chance of hail and severe hail, etc. A cell in NE right now has 4.0 + hail. WOW!!!

Emmysmom,

There is the slightest chance that one of the storms could still have rotation, but it is not very likely. With all the storms that have been training over that area, the storms are more likely to be linear in nature, with hail and high winds the main threat.

I centered my radar onto Lincoln for you to watch if you want.

David

!! Kansas City appears to be in the moderate risk now in the new update to the Day 1 severe weather outlook.

dang...that's big freakin hail! i've never seen hail that big. I'd like to at least once in my life.

the new day 1 is out? sweet!

KC Is in the new Moderate risk area.

that's not at ALL what I expected. I expected there to be a moderate or high all the way down through central KS but they've pulled it all north. INTERESTING to Say the least.

Apparntly the Best place to get tornadic supercells is Nebrraska, SD, Iowa, And Minnesota

wind threat is HIGH tomorrow.. 45 percent and hatched. Hail isn't even hatched. but Tornado threat is 15% and hatched. I expect they'll throw a high risk out tomorrow.

SPC thinks that the CAP will be an issue for KS tomorrow. that's why they maintained the moderate risk and didn't go high. at least yet anyway.

Guess its moving eastward

Hail it looks like its just us

I am still up....  I just had to post...  I am shocked that we are on the edge of the moderate risk.  I feel that the greatest threat for KC is wind.  We have all seen what straight line winds can do.  Hail would be the next threat.

D,
I have your radar as a link!  I used it to track the storms earlier in the week.  I really like it!

Kristi

TF,
Straight line winds are the biggest issue at 45%.  Hail is 30%.  Tornado is 15%.  Tomorrow is shaping up to be a lot more interesting than I thought but then again I am not totally sold yet.

Kristi

Kristi you and I are thinkin alike again!

Thats true Simply. The SPC said the best chance of tornadic supercells is in Nebraska and Iowa. Kansas just has the Annitional Bang and the supercells will race northward. KS will just have striaght line winds and hail.

Kristi...I don't think hail is the greatest threat tomorrow. Hail is not hatched so they are thinking hail won't be that big tomorrow.

HailJ,

You took the words out of my mouth.  Not sure anybody saw that coming.  However, it was easy to buy into the hype.  You wanted to see high risk.  It just goes to show me that you can have every parameter in place and be missing just one that makes or breaks it.  Like I said yesterday, I sided with Kristi somewhat in the overhype, but at the same time, the synoptic conditions are impressive.  I do think there will be a long tracked, violent tornado or two somewhere, but they may not be as numerous as we have been led to believe through various sources independent of this blog.  There is still a very real threat out there, and should the cap break at the right time, or show signs of the same, there will be an upgrade to the convective outlook.  It is still a very broad area of moderate risk, and that should tell us something!  

Straight line winds has everything beat and Tornadoes is next but hail might be a greater chance but not big hail according to SPC.

Bottom line...  Straight line winds are our main threat. I never thought that the tornado threat was that great to begin with.

What's up with the 30% for hail?  Please explain. :)

Kristi

Kristi if you'll notice both tornado and wind probabilities are hatched on the spc outlook meaning tornadoes are expected to be big and wind is expected to be greater then 70 mph but hail is not hatched so they are expecting hail to remain under 2 inches in diameter. Got it Kristi?=)

I got it. :)  No hail greater than 2 inches is expected today.  That is decent size hail tho.

Kristi

MCI
yeah your right. The reason the spc hasn't gone high risk (yet at least maybe) is because of the uncertainty of the strength of the cap. but even Gary thought they would go high. and I was certain that All of central KS would be in the bullseye but that was not the case they shifted everything north eastward which surprised me and they think that southern ks will see little if anything which is also very surprising but then again it's the cap.

Technically we could still have hail up to 2 inches with winds over 70 MPH.  But the highest threat is winds over 70 MPH.

The SPC talked about a derecho forming from storms that move from NE to MN.  

Kristi

yeah but it's not 4 5 or 6 inch hail you see normally with tornado outbreaks. I think they are expecting 1 to 1.5 up to 2 but 2 being the greatest. I would think that you would see hail being at 45 percent and Hatched but it's not that also threw me through a hoop.

Kristi-

In any area that has potential for strong updrafts, hail becomes a concern.  I would suppose that the relative motion of these storms (AOA 50 mph) may have something to do with such a high hail probability when superimposed with wind parameters, because a strom travelling that quickly will inherently have strong winds.  That's my assumption on that regard...    

hurray

although I think if supercells become prominant they will up the hail threat.

MCI,
Your comment is spot on!  Yes, we need to watch today very carefully but it is not the armageddon that people were thinking it was going to be.

Kristi

Oh, come on guys, 2 inch hail still hurts, lol!  I don't envy insurance companies this week!  

is prominant even a word? I'll just say dominant or prodominant.

I'm still in "wait and see" mode

no but spc is saying hail might not even that big maybe just quarter sized which is 1 inch hail.

Kristi-

That just depends on where you are.  There will be a strong tornado somewhere tomorrow, maybe even more than one.  There just won't be 50 of them...

After winning a 45 man poker tourny I can finally contribute to the blog rather than a Hurray.

okay i just read what it said on probabilities. Unhatched is hail 3/4 inch or larger and hatched is hail 2 inches or larger.

MCI,
Makes absolute sense to me now...  I heard that the forward motion of these storms will be very fast.  I can see where wind will be the major threat.

Jonathan,
Normal hail is not 5 to 6 inches.  I have seen Tornado Watches issued with hail up to 3 inches in diameter.

Kristi

Thank you for reading that, Jonathan...  I was gonna beat my head against my monitor. LOL

Kristi

Last year two out breaks in a row had 6 inch hail

I understand, MCI....  I expect the tornado threat more in NE and SD not here.  That's just my opinion. :)

Kristi

Yes, usually the high wind probabilities are in the area where the SPC thinks the big storms will collapse or become linear and/or bow out.  It may be unusual in this sense as they approach the metro...  

March 12, 2006 our tornado watch stated hail 4 inches in diameter or larger

Jonathan,
Please show me the reports of 6-inch hail. :)  

I used 3 because it is more common than 4.

Kristi

LOL at You Kristi!

I will find them right now.

I agree, Kristi, on the tornado threat.  I still think central KS could be grouped in there, maybe just more into N Central now.  If I believe the models.  I should know better than to do that, lol!  Tomorrow becomes a nowcasting day.    

COOL :)  But seriously 6-inch hail is rare.

Kristi

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/tor_faq/damaging_hail_NWS.png
6 inch hail hastings nebraska I'm finding more hold on

I agree, MCI.  We will have to see where the storms fire.  I had thought that they would fire in central KS around 3 PM.  But now I think that I have to change my thinking on that.

Kristi

6 inch hail is biblical...

http://www.thorntonweather.com/blog/wp-content/uploads/2008/04/ne-hail.jpg
this is like 6 or 7 inches

What's the date on that hailstone?

Kristi

Cool pic, but it would be easier to undersatnd the 6 inch hail if it were started at 0 instead of 1 inch, lol?  That is 6 inches alright!  Did they catch it with a glove?  I am amazed the thing didn't break apart upon impact with the surface!

Dangit kristi now I have to find it again!

its within the past 2 years. I know that hold on. coffeyville ks holds the record for 9 inch hail!

Neat pics!  I am not trying to be a pain but I would like to know the date and location of where those hailstones fell tho.  I know the hailstones are real but would like to know more about them. :)

Kristi

Kristi-

Don't let the SPC change your thinking totally.  Trust what you know.

I believe the record holder fell in Coffeyville KS in 1970.

Kristi

Yes HailJ,

I was trying to come up with that!  That hailstone truly brings out the meteor in meteorology, lol!  

June 22, 2003, I thought it was more recent than that. sorry

OK, MCI  I want to stick with my original thinking....  No tornado threat for KC...  Maybe wind and hail here in the metro area.  There. :)  The biggest threat will be to our north and west for tornadoes.  NE and SD should be on the lookout.

Kristi

The Coffeyville hailstone got passed up.  A hailstone, one of them that you showed me....  Fell in Aurora NE on June 22, 2003.... seven inches across and 18.75 inches in circumference.

Kristi

Kristi quit trying to steal my credit I already said that coffeyville holds the record a few posts earlier =P

I found the info with a quick Google search. :)

Kristi

oh yeah! it was 2 years ago that coffeyville got hit again with HUGE hail they got hit with 6 inch hail I remember it being on the news I'll see if I can find that one.

Wow, I did not know that.  I have learned something new now!  Thank you!

Jonathan,
I am pretty good with searching for stuff on the web. :)

Kristi

It's been nice chatting with you two but I really need to go to bed.  It's way late.  I will be back later today to track storms.

Kristi

Later on,

It should be an interesting day tomorrow, hands down...  Was fun talkin wx with you as well!

okay goodnight Kristi See you tomorrow!

Sounds like there are a lot of questions coming into play right now - SPC has a large Moderate risk area drawn out, which includes the NW portion of Kansas City.

Gary:

Good windy warm morning to you sir!!!!! Yes, I have crawled out from my summer hibernation rock LOL!!! No in reality, I have been doing my main spring/summer/fall hobby: fishing!!!

In fact, had an interesting weekend last weekend as I was fishing right on the border of Crawford and Bourbon Counties between Pittsburg and Fort Scott-had some awesome lightening down there on Saturday and Saturday night!!!!

As in The God Father, a few random observations for old times sake LOL-and as always, I hope they make sense!!!!

1. Looking at the 10Z surface charts, it appears the surface low is just east of Goodland as is the surface front. Goodland is currently in the upper 50’s right now with NW winds. That surface low is quite strong at 995 MB-especially for this time of year!!!



2. More amazing to me is the satellite pic of that upper level low sitting over the 4 corners this morning-man is there a spin or what!!! Again, for this time of year, pretty darned impressive. In fact, there are snow advisories posted for the San Juan and Wasach Mountains this morning!!! Hello LRC!!!!! How strong will it really remain and where will it track? Do the models really have a good handle on this aspect??


3. The modles-GFS and RUC look to bring this all into the Topeka/Kansas City Corridor later tonight I think-are they correct? That is the thing-how good of a handle on this do the models really have? This is a pretty vigorous system for this time of year and I wonder if they are calibrated well enough to fully handle this type of episode. For sure, the best bet now is to follow the satellite, radar, and soundings-how long will the cap stay in place today??


4. Along with number 3, there is quite a bit of cloud cover this morning in central Kansas and indeed you can see a cloud deck on the western horizion this morning-what role will that play??


Ok, I’ve babbled enough especially since I am way out of practice on blogging LOL!!! I am heading out to Lone Star Lake this morning with my oldest son to spend 3 days so we will have our eyes on the skies!!! That area, 10 miles SW of Lawrence always seems to get the storms no matter what happens in Lawrence-we do have a weather radio so I will for sure have it turned on tonight!!!

Have a great day-good luck to you, Brett, Jeremy, and Jeff-I can’t even begin to imagine how busy your day/night is going to be. That being said, there is no doubt that you will have the best analysis in the entire Topeka/Kansas City area!!!! This will be interesting/nerve racking to track for sure!! You do such a tremendous job-wish I had a T.V. out at the cabin so I could watch you tonight!!!! As always thanks for reading and have a great day!!!! Crawling back under my rock now!!!! LOL

Bill in Lawrence

-----------------

Bill,

The sat movie is amazing and that energy is rotating into the plains tonight.  Last night, while on the air at 10 PM, showing the pressure of 29.48" was amazing, considering the surface low is so far away.  Now we have to wait and see.

Have a great day.

Gary

At least 2 stations (this one and another) do not seem concerned about severe weather tonight for the metro area.  The storms will have weakened by the time they reach the metro with only isolated severe events possible.  I hope they are right.

gary you better get on this, kc is in a high risk now.

Ok I am very confused. 1.Wondering where the new blog is, usually one is up by now. 2.The weather team, like stated earlier, did not seem too concerned about us here having that bad of severe weather.  So please tell me why we have been put under a high risk through SPC?
Becky

Everyone be safe this afternoon and tonight. We are in a massive high risk area. I have never seen a area outlined that big by the spc ever!!!!!!

And Kansas City steps to the plate.  High Risk, and well inside the southeast side of it.

SPC has put us up in a High Risk area.

Glad I don't live downwind from that Toxic Cloud.