Good Thursday morning bloggers,
The Storm Prediction Center has just placed Kansas City in a HIGH RISK!
This is our first and only high risk we will likely have this year. A major outbreak of severe thunderstorms and tornadoes is likely today, but we are still on the edge of this, with our best chance coming in after sunset, more likely closer to midnight. Nothing has changed from our thinking of the past day or so. We are still going to have to wait and see how this evolves today. I would have placed the high risk a bit farther west, but there is a chance that an overnight raging line could make it to our local region. So, the area from Wichita to Salina, north into Nebraska is still the most likely area for the evening outbreak of severe weather.
It is going to be a very windy, warm, and muggy day. A powerful storm, for this time of the year, is spinning over the western part of the nation. The energy from this storm will be ejecting out into the plains later this afternoon and into tonight. Severe thunderstorms will likely break out. There is a very strong cap being produced by the storm. This is warm air aloft that will prevent the air below the cap from breaking through until the cap weakens. This is forecast to happen late this afternoon or evening. It could take a while as the cap is strong. How can you see the cap? There are different ways. You can look at soundings of the atmosphere from around the region, but a good way for me to show you the cap is on the two maps below:
The first map, above, shows how warm aloft it is. These two maps are forecasts valid at 1 PM and 4 PM this afternoon. The 15 degree C isotherm in the darkest orange color is a layer of very warm air aloft and it will be almost impossible for thunderstorms to form, unless it were to warm up to over 100 degrees this afternoon, which won't happen here. But, look at the map below. As the storm approaches, cooler air will spread in from the west and southwest at this level. Eastern Kansas is still heavily capped, but the cap is breaking over central Kansas later this afternoon. Thunderstorms should explode, once the cap breaks. This warm air aloft could still pose some problems for the thunderstorms as they approach our area, but once they form we will have a better idea of how they will track.
Once the cap breaks, thunderstorms will become extremely strong, with supercells likely producing tornadoes, and very large hail. The most likely spot is near the Nebraska border northward, initially, but then the line could build down to the Oklahoma border and make a move towards us later this evening.
We will update the blog later today. Meteorologist Brett Anthony will be tracking these developments with new data on our Midday newscast at 11 AM.
Gary