NBC Action Communities

Are the clouds still supposed to clear out today? I though it was supposed to be in the upper 80s, so far we are still at 78, which it has been since 5am this morning.

David

Am not looking forward to tonight, but thanks for your accurate and dependable weather coverage for such events.  May this be the end of our severe weather season.  Take care, everyone.

lol david, u took those words rite out of my mouth!

WOW a 60% area for damaging winds with in 25 miles of any point touching us, WOW.
right now it is cloudy and somewhat breezy but the real strong winds have not kicked in yet here in St. Joe.

I completely agree with Gary's entry, gang, totally agree with it.

Kristi

The surface low is still further south than most of the models had it.  Not sure about that.

Models are having a tough time initializing today in my opinion...

--------------

Scott,

The models have a decent handle on this, but now, it is onto Nowcasting!  Just watch the radar and surface maps, and let's see how this evolves. 

Gary

I just saw/read the latest from SPC.  How often it is updated?  When is the next time I should check in on it?  
Still a little nervous for my friend who just left for Wichita.  I told her to keep her cell phone handy and I would call if needed...she often laughs at my weather "nerdiness" and thinks I overreact.  I can't help it though, my dad studied meteorology in the Air Force back in the 60's-he is always glued to this stuff!  

Long time lurker first time poster...I am leaving for Wichita around 2 this afternoon.  I am NOT going to chase, but am actually going for a wedding this weekend.  Do you think most the activity will hold off until after we arrive?  

kristi what is the SWIFT you were talking bout in the previous blog?

i have not been doing this too long, but my analysis was the same as garys. glad i am figuring it out. not looking forward to the winds though.

I'm with gary. lets all get through this together and please no bashing me I just mean the best.

At the last observation reading, it was 81 in Lee's Summit.  I need to check my thermometer.

Kristi

Thank you - we'll look for your coverage this evening!  And enjoy the nice day so far!  :)

We still have three hours or more before we reach our maximum high.  It is still early in the game, folks.

Kristi

if you loop the sat images, it appears the clouds we have are from the outflow boundary from the earlier convection over Topekaish.  In watching the loop, I would anticipate them clearing the metro in about two hours.

Ample time for heating.

so does this mean now that our chance of tornados is pretty slim? i hope so because my middle daughter has autism and  just freaks out when the sirens go of.

Hi Gary!
 As I was driving to work this morning, I was listening to a local radio station.  They were talking about how the weather pattern that is occurring resembles the exact weather pattern of the outbreak of tornadoes on June 8, 1974.  Is this true?  What are the chances of having an outbreak like that again?

Jackie

nikieis: the tornado threat is slim in our area, yes... i would probably worry more about the wind

and thx scott, ive been wondering all about these clouds... it changes the feeling of everything...

That's what they were saying on a forum I go to Jackieo

Well, since we are only in a slight risk, I would guess the threat of tornados is low?

I also have 81 in Olathe

do a google on "swift weather" :) google is your friend

Jay,
\If you are planning to leave around 2, you will run into storms somewhere between here and Wichita.  The storms that are forming to the west of Wichita are linear not rotating.  They could possibly contain hail and wind.  I would listen to the weather for any severe weather statements.  Definitely keep an eye to the sky.  If you know you are headed into some severe weather... take the first exit and pull into shelter until it passes.

Kristi

jackieo

Assuming you mean the April 3-4 1974 Super Outbreak?  Its odd, I've heard that a few times now today.  It is a broad area of risk but that doesn't mean it will mirror that outbreak.

As everyone is saying and doing - just have to wait and see...

Pete

I sure do wish this site has live streaming video of the newscasts. I would really like to watch the 11 - noon broadcast over my lunch break.

i got 82 over by worlds of fun

Thanks Kristi!  I normally LOVE the weather, but I am also normally in my house where I can watch the weather team and check the blog...not in the car in the middle of nowhere.  Who knows...I may have some great pictures to send in! :)

just dont see it happening for kc this time

If you are interested in dowloading SWIFT for the free 14-day trial, here's the link:  http://www.swiftwx.com/

Kristi

Hey Simplykristi, in the last blog you said you could give people an idea of the timing for specific areas. How about the Liberty/Claycomo area by Worlds of Fun? It looks like I will be seeking shelter tonight (much like the night of the BOW ECHO) so any help on timing would be greatly appreciated.

Thanks

My post to Jay did not make sense....

Listen to the radio for any severe weather warnings headed your direction.  If you see severe weather off in the distance, pull off at the first exit you come to and seek shelter.  The number 1 rule on the highway during severe weather....  Do not seek shelter under an overpass if a tornado is coming.  It's OK to seek shelter for hail but not for tornadoes!

Kristi

Chieffan,
Gary says anywhere from 9 PM to 2 AM.  That's my thinking right now.  Let's see how the storms develop first and where they develop.

Kristi

retreating back to my own blog...good luck moderating, Kristi!

Kristi: From previous blog but didn't know if you saw it:
Kristi..you asked for it!  : )  My Nebraska family lives in Lincoln, and my mom works in Nebraska City and has to drive back to Lincoln (off at 3:30 usually in Lincoln at 4:30).

What is threat to Lincoln and Nebr. City, what is the ETA for both, and will she be home in time before the severe weather, or should she take off early?

Thanks for bailing on me, Scott. LOL

Kristi

I would also tell anyone who plans on attending Wakarusa in Lawrence to keep a close look at the sky.  Huge outdoor concert that last several days-not sure how many of them will be concerned with the weather with so many great bands playing.  But that wind/possible lightning and hail could certainly be a nuisance for those who plan on camping out and for the bands that are playing.

Emmysmom,
Nothing really going on in that area right now.   I will monitor it for you since it seems to have a very high risk for tronadoes.

Kristi

Erin- that is where my brother is today. And you are right, I am sure he won't pay any attention!

Lilly,
I really prefer to be anonymous in that chatroom....  No one knew I am a female until I spoke up. LOL  They don't even know my name.

Kristi

From the latest HWO in Pleasant Hill.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.


Huh?

From the latest HWO in Pleasant Hill.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.


Huh?

We are heading out tomorrow morning about 11 for Wichita...do you think the storms will be over by then...we will be leaving from Olathe.
Thanks!

Bands are scheduled to play from 11:30am until 4am Friday morning at Wakarusa-just pray people keep their wits about them and watch the sky.  

I'm confident that the storms will die before they get to Kansas City. I think our severe threat may go up for tomorrow afternoon since the system is fireing up farther west than anticipated.

noaa just updated this morning it was half to three quarters of an inch of rain. now its 1-2 inches possible

noaa just updated this morning it was half to three quarters of an inch of rain. now its 1-2 inches possible

Kristi - That's why I called you Simply until you said Kristi in there. >.<

Molly,
Could be some storms tomorrow.  There's a slight risk of severe weather just to the south and east of KC for tomorrow.  It looks like Wichita is just west of the sllight risk.  It looks like you could encounter some non-severe t-storms.

Kristi

Well I opted not to take the kids to Belleville today. I called my grandpa and told him to go to the VFW today and I will come get him tomorrow. I feel bad but everything in my gut is saying it will be too dangerous out that way today.  For those that dont know belleville Ks is near concordia.

The Discovery Channel has a vehicle on I-70 just west of Salina.  The TIV2 is in Nebraska north of Grand Island and west of Omaha...

how do i get the swift weather to be smooth the image out and go into motion

Obvious mistake Twister 11. it looks like they left that on from a previous outlook.

Probably a good idea to postpone your trip, ClayCtySpotter.  Tomorrow looks like a better day for your area.

Kristi

Hmm... I don't know. It doesn't look like the clearing line is going to make it here. More clouds keep developing to the west.

If anyone wants to watch, I have live Level II Super Resolution radar on my website at
http://weather.kskoellers.com/radar/stormtracker.php
It updates once a minute, and I can move it if it needs. Right now it is focused on the storms east of Dodge City.

David

ok now im confused... no spotter activation?? but we still have a risk for severe weather!

bellgolf,

Smothing out the image resolution at zoomed in levels is really possible. Version 3.0 will resolve this.

As far as putting things in motion, there is a way to turn on a record function. Basically it saves each radar update per screen and plays it through.

Hope this helps some, I'm not actually setting in front of it or I could be more help.

Bell,
I am still trying to figure it out.  Bones has been helping me thru email some.  

Kristi

In these types of events you either get hit or missed.

Looks like no spotter activation required is a mistake.

Kristi

So if we dont make it out of the clouds today and dont get quite as hot as they say, what exactly does that mean?  Does that just eliminate or slim the chances of tornados, or does that mean it knocks down our chances of severe storms all together (the real heavy rain, big hail, strong winds kind)?  

I would like it to mean all of the above, as just today my roof was finally fixed from the bow echo/tornado in May.  I dislike the words "bow echo" almost as much as the word "tornado" now.

Guys,

We are out and mobile at 1335 CDT ODO 1334.  Way--way late.  I'll keep everyone posted...hard to type while moving!

Hey Kristi, looks like your busy today.  I just ran home for lunch to check on my old pups, and noticed something -  all those high winds they put the advisory out for have yet to materialize (hoping I'm not jinxing that by mentioning it).  

Whether it means anything or not, don't know, I'm not that savy.  But speculation seems to lead that if we don't have the high winds down here, it will help limit rotation?

Argh, don't know.  Have to scoot back to work now.
Later yall.  :o)

this is not as good as i thought. sever storms will be gone


another bust

My car thermometer says 88 in Blue Springs - feels and looks like it could just pour any minute

Yes Emmy,

The thick cloud cover all the wy throught sunset should lower the severity of the storms, thats not to say they wont still come...!

thanks kristi and bones i am using the pro version 2.5. with the 14 day trial

86.4 degrees with a dewpoint of 71.  Rather juicy!  Jim in Clinton

Anyone know where Chris Strahan is at? I see his chase cam is active, but I don't know where he is. Where ever he is it is starting to get nasty looking!

Just waiting for storms to hit us. During the Last Tornados back on May 1st. I listened to Purple haze while it was green outside and the sirens were doing off.

Hey bell,

Something went wrong for you, you should have 2.7 I believe...

Nevermind....Just figured out he is near I-70 watching the line for just West of Salina.

Bell,
I have 2.7 too for my trial.  I really like it!

Kristi

Flash Flood watch in effect for Kansas.

There is a tornado warning out in way western kansas in whatever county Tribune is in.  They were under a slight risk today.   Something to think about.

i am sorry i do have 2.7.

I find it interesting the tornado watch in Nebraska has been up for a couple hours now and nothing has happened yet, the tornado watch in Kansas is now filled by a line of severe storms.  Might this be indicative of the energy moving out more south of what was originally expected, or is there a reason why this is so?

Wow look at the radar - serious line popping west of Wichita @ 2:00PM

twister11 i seen that too and was wondering the same

Renee,
I guess the cloud cover is holding down the wind speeds here.  I am not really sure.  Crazy weather!  It's 86 on Manhattan and 80 in Topeka.

Kristi

Watching David's radar, Chris's live webcam of chasing, this blog, and the chasers chat. I need to do some chores today but I'm glued to the computer.

ioh yeah and i am at 85 and 59% humidity

Wind is horrible, clouds are hauling booty.  In ft. Scott and have internet connection,
Woohoo to bad I am in roaming.

Lorie,
I have been up since 9:30 and have been glued to the computer.  

Kristi

I bet the high risk goes south and eastward. Absolutly Nothing is happening in Nebraska and severe storms are popping up in South Ks and into Oklahoma.

There is a Tornado warning were a Slight risk is.

Thats my Openion

Looks like are 1st wave is growing west of Wichita??

Anyone agree?? Question is timeing I suppose??

Kristi ~ I tried to sleep in bu was up at 1 (wrong number on cell), 2 (wrong number on cell), 7 (kiss hubby bye), 8 (mom called as they were leaving Wichita), 8:30 (wrong number on cell again). I've done little else.

I'm just lurking, you're moderating, calming people down, reading the nowcasts, etc.  

I have a soccer game to play at 6 pm in lees summit outdoors ..that line is approaching fast out of Kansas. Kristi think i wil be able to play before the lightning and rain come?

How do you get to watch Chris Strahans live video stream? Is there a website?

Thats exactly my concern Turd... The furhter SW this starts, means more threat for the Metro... Unless I am just a complete idiot?? Which is possible...LOL!!

I have been watching that line form west of Salina to west of Wichita.

Kristi

It's only 2:19 PM guys :-)

Where do I find Chris's live webcam? Thanks!
     Derek

wiggi: go to http://www.severestudios.com/livechase and click on Chris

I still think that Kansas City is in the clear until later tonight.It is going to be another Bow. Although I wonder if it will have some supercells mixed in with it?

What does that line indicate?  When is the next SPC update?  
I, too, should also be cleaning but I have the three little ones down for a nap and a sleeping baby on me-doesn't get much better than this!

For once I agree with two Bloggers.

Bones and TF. Seeing as this is starting more SE then expected The Northwest track looks good. I have the Same consern that This will play out like the Orginal High risk over Us. I'm looking at the Possibility of it moving South and eastern. This is posing the threat.

Today Im not gonna be a *** to people but accualy talk in a Human.

The storms are racing across Kansas!  Dryslot, the storms are to the west of Salina.  Right now they are moving northeast but I am not sure if the line itself is moving eastward.  I would say keep an eye to the sky during your practice.    

Kristi

Erin,
That line has a lot of warnings in it.  There's one Tornado Warning for one of the cells in it.

Kristi

Next SPC is due out out 1500 or 3pm

Next SPC is due out at 1500 or 3pm

It also Appears that this is a Faster Run which means a Better Severe weather Chance for us. At the Model Last night The Line didnt make it to Topeka untill 7 or 8PM. Its looking alot faster.

i think i figured this program out now. i was able to get the high res pics. thanks again to bones and kristi, who is all over this blog today!!!!

It looks like it will be in nebraska very soon.

I really don't anticipate the straight line winds and hail til around 9 PM at the earliest.  But man those storms are moving at more than 60 MPH.

Kristi

Kristi
I enjoy your postings and you seem very knowledgeable. I have a question for you. My youngest daughter (who's 12) is going to Lake of the Ozarks with a girlfriend and her family. They are leaving tomorrow afternoon and will be there through the weekend. Do I need to worry about them driving tomorrow and how will the weekend be for them?

The line is Central Ks is starting to go tornadic- open another window and go to KSNW.com for streaming coverage

Bell,
It has taken me some time to figure it out.  I need to figure out the GPS part of it for pilotkcx.  

Kristi

Looks like a slight risk of severe weather for them tomorrow.  Think that there is a chance of storms Sat. down there.  Sunday should be a great day down there for them. :)

Kristi

well if you ask me, I think the NWS and Gary both did well on the evolution of this storm. I remember Gary saying a couple days ago that a major outbreak appears likely over Kansas.

By the way I am noticing a more easterly direction on the line of storms near wichita. I think the line itself is moving more east, while the cells are moving northeast.

I am not an analyst...  That is not my forte.  I leave that for the team and bloggers like Scott and Bill.  My forte is tracking.

Kristi

Just looking at the 18Z RUC, not much as changed condidtion wise as far as its concered.

I still think we will start seeing some activaty before sunset... I also still question severity for us with this cloud deck in place and the surface low having lifted north sooner then expected.

I just dont know what to thing..............! LOL! May be I will just shutup now...lol...

Kristi or anyone,

that has SWIFT...where do you show us.  We just passed Topeka..our trail looks good but it still shows us sitting in KC.

Thx.

Big cell a couple of counties to the west of Kearney NE.  It has a tornado warning on it.  There are some storms to just east of Kearney extending south.  They are not severe.

Kristi

Anybody take a look at the SpotterNet webpage lately?  Their are so many spotters in Kansas right now its crazy and the show is just starting.  It has to be awfully congested in some places with all the spotters.

Wow, this thing is so impressive, it is like a spiraling March storm that has been time warped to early June, the only thing that I notice is that the clouds here are hanging tough and the winds don't seem to be blasting out of the south as strong as they are supposed to be up here yet.

Thanks Kristi

Pilot,
I have to figure that part out...  I hope to figure that out pretty quick.  Did get your coordinate info earlier in the blog.  Learning new stuff makes multi-tasking so interesting.

If I missed someone's question, let me know...  I am trying to monitor the blog and set up SWIFT and monitor Chris Strahan's stream.

Kristi

Any one have their latest thoughts before any new spc???

They fixed it.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED NORTH AND WEST OF A LINE FROM
BUTLER TO KIRKSVILLE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

WOW  Storms are really firing east and NE of Kearney NE.  

Kristi

I would say they will shift the high risk slightly east but they may leave it and move it east this evening if the supercells that are forming stay somewhat discrete.. Its a wait and see game now.

Check out the radar out of Dodge City, not sure I've ever seen that many boxes at one time.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=NCR&rid=ddc&loop=yes

My latest... Would a 1 to 2 hour advance on arrival to the metro, but I'm not Gary and the team...LOL!!!

Speaking of! Hey Action Team? Do you have any new thought!?!?!?

Kristi they just blew up out of no where.

I would Shift the High Risk More South eastern. I liked the First High Risk Part beforwe they shifted it west.

when is 3z and 12z???

Just tried to watch Chris' live stream but says not available right now.  Any other chasers that you recommend watching??

does anyone think that there may be a possibility for a flood watch to be put over the immediate metro area? cuz i kno that lawrence and points west already have been posted...

Folks, this is the beginning of the outbreak. We should see rapid development into tornadic supercells ahead and behind the line in central Kansas. Also south into Oklahoma and its starting already up in Nebraska. Everything is now ideal for numerous supercells to pop west of us. Lets see where they go and how well they stay together. They have plenty to work with and instability is increasing rapidly in eastern kansas. The storms are starting to take a more east/northeasterly direction which tells me they are developing very strong mid level rotation and trying to right turn despite the very strong surface winds.

So the 19Z RUC just hit... Huge whole in the cap along the dry line, ton of convergance and the 850mb winf field looks like a hurrican...LOL! Really not trying to freak every body out here!!

The Surface low as lifted almost right over Nebraska as well...

Tyler,
There were just a few storms to the south of Kearney and all of a sudden, BOOM!

Kristi

Yeah, it appears the storms are now moving more east, northeast instead of mostly north.  It would appear the ULL might be in the Oklahoma panhandle now?  Anyone agree?

Just because we are not in the high risk. We are in the moderate. Things are still possible

Hey Kane...

Go here http://tycho.usno.navy.mil/zones2.html

Okay, Kristi, any updated thoughts on the outlook for Lincoln and Nebr. City, NE?

bones: could you post a link?

Mammatus: do you think this cloud cover could be a limiting factor in the storms in eastern kansas tho?

We really need to monitor this thing.  It is blowing up as we type.

Kristi

bones I am dumb what does all that mean?

E,
I will monitor those storms in NE for you.

Kristi

Thanks bones.

Kristi are you thinking KC metro could get more now?

i think gary should hire Kristi as the official blog moderator! lol

Kristi. Im thinking that since it is getting fast poaced that the SPC might wanna go back to the first high risk they put out eariler. I think that one is better

Lilly,
I am expecting a bow echo much like we had on May 2nd.  

The closest tornado warning to us is 197 miles.  A long ways away.

Kristi

That line out west is not really advancing eastward very fast. I just watched a 1-hr loop and it only advanced about 1 county width to the east. Individual cells are moving rapidly which is why high wind is so likely.

pilotskcx

I just fired up Swift and I do not see you anywhere on it. Sorry.

Here is the link I have been using for my guess work.. About the best I can fing...

Be warned! You really have to a have good understanding of things to know what your looking at (an understanding that I am working hard to have!)...Lol

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/compmap/

Wish I had radar so I could see what is going on.
Kristi am I still in the okay?  How about emporia?  Thanks

WeatherDude, the wind fields will be more than ideal to sustain supercells. The question is if we will get some showers forming in eastern Kansas because of the deep moisture transport but it looks like we are getting some clearing in southeast kansas and the strong low level winds are shearing out the cloud deck from the south. We still have plenty of time to get some clear spots.

Well every one use your heads. Later!

David in Lenexa,
How do I track GPS on that??

Kristi

PS.

Some one mentioned the ULL earlier? I am showing it out over NewMexico/Arizona????

I agree, twister. She's doing an awesome job multi-tasking

Dwxtracker,

We just fired SWIFT up again...we're 80 miles East of Salina.

WeatherDude, the wind fields will be more than ideal to sustain supercells. The question is if we will get some showers forming in eastern Kansas because of the deep moisture transport but it looks like we are getting some clearing in southeast kansas and the strong low level winds are shearing out the cloud deck from the south. We still have plenty of time to get some clear spots.

Someone said on the live stream WIBW that SPC should have an update at 3. not there yet.

Thunder in Greenwood - although i don't see much of anything on radar.

This is still very dynamic - the cloud cover is holding over the southern metro area and that can be good - however the tornado watch area has been extended all the way to North Texas - if the storms hold together we might face a very rough night.  Hopefully as we progress towards KC they will loose some energy. This is an hour by hour type of situation.

SPC 2000Z outlook any minute. They are delayed again because im sure there are plenty of their forecasters multi-tasking like mad right now.

So does anyone thing they'll move the Tornado watch box Eastward? When?

Well im worried and is quiet and muggy outside, but, it feels as thoguh it's missing soething.

mammatus: Thanks, thats what i was thinking...

im downloading swift!

Laura,
It is off to your west quite a ways.  What time is hubby leaving?  I would keep an eye to the sky as he is coming back from Arma.

Kristi

"it still appears we have almost no chance of any severe weather until after sunset.  So, just relax, and we will all watch this together"

Just in case any of you missed it in Gary's blog entry....there won't be any watch boxes near KC for many hours.

So is the SPC ppl gonna give us an outlook or are they just being dumb. I think there having Computer problems but ohh well

So is the SPC ppl gonna give us an outlook or are they just being dumb. I think there having Computer problems but ohh well

It could be as late as 7 before a watch is issued for KC.

Kristi

TF,
Relax.  The outlook will be out momentarily, I'm sure.

Kristi

I would imagine the good people at the SPC in Norman have their hands full at the moment, there are a huge number of Tornado & Svr Thunderstorm warning out at the moment.  Give them a break. :-)

I want these clouds to go away!

The rain looks nasty in Chris' chase camera...and I keep waiting for someone in front of him wreck.

Warnings are issued thru NWS not SPC.

Kristi

I certainly agree with giveing the SPC a minute to catch up (so-to-speak)...lol!

but the thing is, all they control is watches. Warnings are put out by the local weather service. they have really had sense 12 to work on it, so that is 3 hours. There is only 1 md out they are concentrating on, and there is already a watch for that. So my guess is, it is just taking them longer sense this is more dangerous. Not really with the watches warnings.

Looks like PleasentHill is down too??

Its been 25 Minutes.

Check out Strahan's chasecam!  Blinding rain and wind--looks nasty.

Emmysmom,
That is what I call blinding rain.  Visibility is down to practically nothing.

Kristi

Showers popping up in the Topeka radar area -- near Manhatten KS.

New Day 1 out...no shift in risk lines

Chris cam looks baaaad.

yeah if all the spc is doing is monitoring weather watches is meso discussions whats taking them so long? like Kristi said the nws of each region issues warnings. shame on ours for not issuing a tornado warning for Johnson and Jackson counties for that storm the other night.

A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AT MID
  AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEB/KS INTO NORTHWEST OK.
  INTENSITY OF THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /45-80 KT 0-6 KM/ THROUGHOUT
  THE PLAINS ENSURES THAT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL EASILY ROTATE.
  THESE BROKEN SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES
  THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY
  INCREASING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT OWING TO INCREASINGLY STRONG LINEAR
  FORCING AND THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS...INCLUDING
  THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EVENTUAL DERECHO WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
  ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK/ADJACENT MODERATE RISK AREAS OF
  KS/NEB INTO IA/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHERN MN. WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
  MIDWEST...THE RELATIVELY GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG/POTENTIALLY LONG
  TRACK TORNADOES WOULD INITIALLY APPEAR TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
  NEB AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN IA...IN VICINITY OF BACKED
  LOW LEVEL FLOW/STRONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
  IN AN OTHERWISE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

We're going off SWIFT now and soley on Mobile Threatnet...SWIFT keeps locking up on the NTL Radar.

We're in Geary County KS just east of Manhattan now.

Maria,
It looks like nothing has changed.  Am I correct?

Kristi

20 convective looks bad for Lawrence/Topeka and surrounding area.  2"+ high risk for hail and 65+ knot winds.  Just nice and fancy, anybody want to trade?

yeah, really all that extra 25 minutes for nothing new. Pretty sad. I could understand if there were some changes.. but none.

The upped hail to 45 percent hatched in some places

they didn't shift anything no.

The risk didn't, but it looks like they went from mostly wind/hail event for E KS to now in potential for long track (see post above).  I don't see how that verifies.  Maybe Central KS and up into NE...

Sorry Kristi, didn't mean to imply SPC issued warnings, they just issue the watches, but they would certianly be monitoring the situation.

Boy, West Central Kansas looks like a parking lot with all the spotters out there.

Lol. Ok then SPC. Lets not update the map. |_O__/

I'm glad they finally issued the convective outlook before some of our bloggers' heads exploded. People need to take a few chill pills. Things come out later than scheduled on big days like today. Relax.

these clouds are making me angry. the thunderstorms will never form here or get here if these clouds are here.

They updated the meso discussion for the C KS TOR Watch too:

EVOLUTION OF A PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY FROM
  NEAR CONCORDIA SOUTHWARD THROUGH MEDICINE LODGE...AND RAPID NEW
  DEVELOPMENT IS COMMENCING SOUTHWARD INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.  THIS IS
  OCCURRING AS INHIBITION WEAKENS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONGER
  MID-LEVEL COOLING...WHICH COULD APPROACH MANHATTAN/WICHITA AND ENID
  BY/SHORTLY AFTER 23Z. LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS ARE GENERALLY
  UNIDIRECTIONAL...BUT SHEAR BENEATH A 50 KT SOUTHERLY 850 JET IS
  EXTREME...AND SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE MORE DISCRETE
  CELLS.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
  TO INCREASE...ASSOCIATED WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AND DOWNWARD
  TRANSPORT OF MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH A 60 KT DEEP LAYER MEAN
  ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW  REGIME NEAR THE MID/UPPER JET AXIS.

No prob woofwoof  I just think that SPC has their hands full trying to determine what is going to happen in the next few hours.  It's pretty crazy today. :)

Maria,
I read that about Eastern KS.  I am thinking that the threat for tornadoes has moved farther east than Topeka.  

Kristi

Rdub no offense but if those comments are bothering you, just ignore them.

No kidding, Rdub!

Kristi

Is Abilene (about 30 minutes east of Salina) in the path of the heavy stuff?  Do I need to send my grandma to the basement?  She is alone, my grandpa is in a nursing home right now.  I'm not sure if she pays attention to this stuff.

Looks like Strahan is about in position on that cell--finally made it through the rain to the edge of the cell--hopefully we'll be seeing something on the cam soon

new meso out for central KS

LSMOWatvcher,
You or someone might let her know shortly that there is severe weather off to her west and that she might want to keep an eye to the sky and listen to local media in her area so she can take shelter when she needs to.

Kristi

Kristi,

I certainly don't envy you today! Everyone's asking for your opinion on things!

Other than that, I don't have much to add. I just hope that if my husband comes back from SE Kansas (now an uncertainty because of work-related problems) he gets back before it starts getting bad. Next time he goes this far away, he's getting our portable weather radio! It'll make his wife feel a lot better!!!

--Liberty from Overland Park

LSMO--

I'd call now.  The storm just W of Salina will go NNW of her, but a new TOR Warned cell has popped South of that cell and given the fast movement of the storms, she should go in the basement now.

Well... If I didnt know any better I would say the surface low is stalled out over NE??

Thoughts??

Kristi,

I took the post by Maria to mean that Northeastern KS (near state line- Highland, Hiawatha, etc.) is more in the path for long-tracking tornadoes than our immediate viewing area.  Do you see something I don't?

Will

does anyone know where chris is right now? i am looking at his live feed and from what i can tell its a hwy and really no rain and does not look all that bad.

Now 3 TOR warned cells in W KS (W Salina, W of Hutch and barely W of Medicine Lodge).  Going to be a long day...

By the way does anyone know when it is suppose to get windy, there is a wind advisor, but the wind has not hardly blown all day.

where is chris at??

FYI----Live streaming coverage of Central KS weather from ksnw.com- NBC affilate in Wichita- multiple Tornado warned storms

I for one am more than happy to see these clouds...if it means our chances for severe go down.  

Northernmost TOR warned two cells starting to merge, which will hopefully take away the TORs before they get to the Salina area

Just thought we might talk about actual weather instead of complaining when the SPC outlook isn't exactly at 1500. But if that's what you guys want, knock yourselves out.

Kristi:

Thanks for the suggestion on Swift, that is fun software!!

We're now 26 East of Salina...we're going to try and catch the one just south as it passes to the south of the airfield.

lol on the subject of swift... im having trouble getting things instantly... is it supposed to take 3 minutes to change type of radar?

Okay.  I'm totally freaking now.  I don't remember who said it but the "the cap is totally blown a hole - looks like a hurricane!" is making me panic - even though he said he was sorry!  I know you're all busy - I'm at work and can't look at all the different radars and stuff.  Is it time to be scared?

Chris Strahan ChaseCam appears to be on a tornado

Am keeping a close eye on the storms approaching Wichita- my step-mom lives there by herself.  She does luckily have a safe room though so that makes me feel a little better!  I have my tornado earrings on- they seem to bring good luck when we have bad weather so hopefully there will be no severe damage or loss to life anywhere.  Dea

Kristi

you have mail.

what was just on strahans cam?

I still dont know what to think... The 19Z suggested a quiker arrival now the 20Z shows it back on time....

I am stumped...

Chris' cam has some interesting shots!! Does anyone no where he is?

I just looked at the severe alerts 14 tornado warnings at one time thats just crazy

storms now firing in northern oklahoma, these will be the ones to affect us if any.

Hey WEATHERdude,

I was noticing Pleasent Hill was having issues a little bit ago. Thats probabley what you are seeing..

Will,
I took the comment as eastern KS...  That would include Hiawatha, Topeka, Emporia,.  I wish the SPC would have been a little more specific about the area.  Directions mean different things to different people. :)

Kristi

Hey all,

I appologize for my sounding a bit rude and defensive the past couple days,
I'm kinda going thru a tough time, my wife started her new job this week and I'm still jobless and I sorta just feel crappy so I appologize
RDub,
I appologize to you my last comment did come off a bit rude i'm sorry.

That was me Hummer, and no its not time to be scared... I have stopped talking like that by the way... Dont pay attition to me, Listen to kristi!! Really!

THERE IS NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT FOR KANSAS CITY PROPER UNTIL AFTER 9 PM.

Even then, I don't think our threat of any severe weather is even that great - if we get rain at all. The squall was expected to die just after it went past the metro if it formed about 80 miles east of where it did end up forming at - that means the squall line would probably die just past Topeka.

Just spoke to my mother in Hill City, KS, Graham County.  Two tornadoes on the ground 2 miles SW and headed toward the city.  I could hear the police scanner in the background.  She was on her way to the bunker!  Of course, the old men stand outside looking until the last minute, so dad was out watching the sky.

My hubby is the same way, Wahoo.

I've got an apricot, a well used pair of Bose headphones and jug of pennies that says the line doesn't die just east of Topeka.  Any takers?

f00dl3... for some reason, i dont see that happening, this is a very strong system and signs are pointing to a good chance for severe weather as well as heavy rain.

Kristi,

The reason I took it to be more northeastern KS is because of the mention of extreme western IA.  Generally, in my experience, when dealing with ppoints like Emporia and south, they refer to it as Southeast KS.  Just my two cents- may not be worth it, though.  :-)

Will

Is anyone else having trouble with Chris' stream.  I keep losing it and getting a message that no current live stream and try later.

and bones, thx!

HummerSeeker,
Things are exploding out west by 200 to 300 miles.  By the time it gets to KC, it should be a wind and hail event.  I suspect that the wind will be the biggest threat.  It could be in a weakened state by the time it reaches you in Holden.  I will keep tracking the storms for you and everyone else who can't do it.

Kristi

Hey all,

I appologize for my sounding a bit rude and defensive the past couple days,
I'm kinda going thru a tough time, my wife started her new job this week and I'm still jobless and I sorta just feel crappy so I appologize
RDub,
I appologize to you my last comment did come off a bit rude i'm sorry.
reposting to make sure everyone sees it

Flash Flood watch for metro area from 7pm thro Friday morn... more rain.. great

emcat-
yes, after I saw "something" interesting- I lost it

Wahoo,
I hope that your parents are safe and suffer no property damage.  WOuld you please post when you hear from them again?  

Thanks,
Kristi

I'm fairly certain it was a tornado on Chris' cam and the Studio updates indicates that.  Too bad the feed is down now, hope he wasn't too close...

Yes, emcat...  Chris' stream is down right now.

Kristi

F00d,

I would agree with the servere threat lowering some, but not the timeing.

This thing is starting to pop... Basically all around us, so my money is still on a little closer to 8pm or so maybe 7:30ish even, but that could be pushing it.

I cant get Chris' stream either.

Flash Flood Watch for metro KC.

Kristi

We're still capped here in KC. Should have time to mow the lawn before we get wet, again. I wouldn't mind if a round or two of storms hit KCI but missed Johnson County, just to even out the rainfall.

Well, Bob Hall has a good view of the south side of the storms.  He is south west of them.  In Oklahoma, heading north... (as I type this...) - and he just turned around  :-)

spc outlook

SPC AC 052017
 
  DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0317 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
 
  VALID 052000Z - 061200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EASTERN KS/EASTERN
  NEB/SOUTHEAST SD/WESTERN IA/NORTHWEST MO...
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHWEST OK INTO SOUTHERN
  MN/FAR WESTERN WI/MUCH OF IA...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
  THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...
 
  ...PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND MIDDLE/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
  VALLEY...
  A SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK CONTINUES TO QUICKLY EVOLVE ACROSS THE
  CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN
  UNSEASONABLY STRONG KINEMATICS/VERTICAL SHEAR ATOP A VERY
  MOIST/UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH IN WIDESPREAD
  DAMAGING WINDS AND THE POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES /AS WELL AS
  LARGE HAIL/ THROUGH TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH/MODERATE
  RISK AREAS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
 
  AT MID AFTERNOON...A 989 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
  NEB/NORTHWEST KS...WITH A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE EXTENDING
  SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH
  PLAINS. EAST FROM THE SURFACE LOW...A ROUGHLY WEST-EAST ORIENTED
  WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY RETREAT NORTHWARD FROM NEB/NORTHERN
  IA TO ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER. AS A POTENT MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE
  TROUGH/JET STREAK CONTINUES TO SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE
  CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...A BROAD WARM
  SECTOR REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS
  ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.
 
  A BROKEN BAND OF SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO QUICKLY DEVELOP AT MID
  AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF NEB/KS INTO NORTHWEST OK.
  INTENSITY OF THE DEEP LAYER WIND FIELD /45-80 KT 0-6 KM/ THROUGHOUT
  THE PLAINS ENSURES THAT ANY SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL EASILY ROTATE.
  THESE BROKEN SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/TORNADOES
  THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY
  INCREASING THIS EVENING/TONIGHT OWING TO INCREASINGLY STRONG LINEAR
  FORCING AND THE LIKELY DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING SEGMENTS...INCLUDING
  THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EVENTUAL DERECHO WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
  ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK/ADJACENT MODERATE RISK AREAS OF
  KS/NEB INTO IA/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHERN MN. WHILE TORNADOES WILL BE
  POSSIBLE ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
  MIDWEST...THE RELATIVELY GREATEST RISK FOR STRONG/POTENTIALLY LONG
  TRACK TORNADOES WOULD INITIALLY APPEAR TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN
  NEB AND CENTRAL/EASTERN KS INTO WESTERN IA...IN VICINITY OF BACKED
  LOW LEVEL FLOW/STRONG LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW
  IN AN OTHERWISE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
 
  FARTHER SOUTH...GIVEN WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT/GLANCING LARGE SCALE
  FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS
  NUMEROUS IN NATURE ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM SOUTHWEST OK INTO
  NORTHWEST/WEST CENTRAL TX. OTHER SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO
  EARLY EVENING WITHIN A POST-DRYLINE/HIGHLY SHEARED REGIME ACROSS THE
  CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING WESTERN KS/WESTERN NEB.
 
  REFERENCE LATEST SPC WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR LATEST
  MESOSCALE DETAILS REGARDING THE EVOLVING SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK.
 
  ..GUYER.. 06/05/2008

I just got off of a teleconfrence with the NWS and they think the main threat is going to be possibly another damaging wind event, they expect a squall line to form tonight and then press east-southeast ward through the early morning hours, they think the KC metro area could be affected by storm forming ahead of the squall line around 9 pm or so, then be affected by the squall line between 10-12 then affect southern portions of the CWA between 1-4 am.  The main threat they think is going to be strong winds espically if the squall line starts to bow out and become bow echo segments.  They are also concerned about the flooding potential, due to already saturated grounds, flooding could become a major concern specifically for areas that will get the heaviest rainfall out of this system.  They also said that there will be a strong cap in place and the main reason why they think wind and severe weather will be a big threat is because if the storms ahead of the line develop  it will help erode the cap even more so when the squall line comes through the cap will be broken and we could possibly expect explosive development, for hail threat, there could be some large hail, but the environment is not nearly as supportive like the last large hail event. For the tornado threat, the threat is there, but more than likely it will be the brief spin up type tornadoes as the airmass converges and interacts with the favorable environment ahead of the squall line. So there could be 2 threats of development possibly 3
1. storms that form ahead of the squall line
2. the squall line
3. possible development late tomorrow morning and then afternoon for southern and eastern portions of the viewing area/ outlook area

Timing look like, (Keep in mind it can, and more than likely will change) :P
NWS thinks
6-9 pm storms developing west of Kansas/Missouri Border
squall line to hit KC metro 10-12
south of metro 1-4 am

We must keep in mind for areas up north, closer to the low, you could expect development sooner and arrival times could be different for you.

The SPC might put parts under a watch sooner if they are concerned about the development ahead of the squall line, prob after 5pm  and as late as 7 pm
If the SPC is more concerned about the squall line event/ portion then more than likely the watches will be issued later on in the evening after 7pm and as late as 9 pm.  

The wind shear, capping inversion, dewpoints, CAPE, temps, the ingredients are there for a severe weather threat tonight, through the overnight hours, the main thing is how the system evolves later on today and we see the progression to the Kansas/Missouri border through the late evening/ overnight hours.

Like Gary always says, we have to wait and see.

Everyone stay safe tonight,
John Moon III

i am guessing we still have a cap over our area. but if i remeber the other nights cap did not give way till like after 5.

how do you get the web cams?

This is my main concern via the SPC...

"INCLUDING
  THE POSSIBILITY OF AN EVENTUAL DERECHO WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE
  ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK/ADJACENT MODERATE RISK AREAS OF
  KS/NEB INTO IA/NORTHWEST MO/SOUTHERN MN."

The concern I have had all day is the 500 mb speed max rounding the trough right over us right on top of the convection.

Much like adding rocket fuel to a bonfire.  I hope nothing fires in advance of the line...I pray nothing fires in advance of the line.

The line will have every possible advantage to build into a derecho...

I am already seeing the storms with over 70dbz and 80 VIL kg/m2.

Does anybody else find it odd that nobody from Gary's team has an update or any comments to add?

I tend to agree with Gary - but I also need to point out that even a slight chance should not be taken lightly -- people need to stay alert. The conditions are favorable for some serious development -- that does not mean that serious storms will form over our area -- but they have already form thought the country -- also the risk is probably higher towards the airport instead of south east of the 453 loop.

We are supposed to "run over to Topeka" for a service call and don't want to drive into harms way- any thoughts on what time Topeka will be getting stormy?
thanks
tooti

I don't think we will have much development ahead of the squall if it makes it to the metro - we have some cold-air showers overhead. Although - this may enhance the cold pool.

John,
That is pretty much what I have been saying. most of the day....  Primarily a wind threat...  I am thinking something similar to May 2nd.  I suspect a watch in place no later than 7 PM.

Kristi

John Moon III - thanks for that update!  Many years ago I worked for a guy named John Moon at the Horticulture Research Center outside of Wichita- perhaps any relation?  Dea

Can anybody give me the site addresses for chris cam or any other chaser cams in the field. Thanks

What time are you going, Troe?  If you go now, I would leave Topeka around 7 if you can.

Kristi

Latest visible shows clouds starting break up over our area.

Storm chasing cams:  http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

Kristi

ruc sounding progs 700mb to drop to 12C by 5PM

Chris' feed is back up! Glad he's okay!!

The team is very busy today.  

Kristi

John Moon - you said "3. possible development late tomorrow morning and then afternoon for southern and eastern portions of the viewing area/ outlook area" - define "southern and eastern portions" of the viewing area.  I live in Holden.  If there's even the lightest risk of a tornado tomorrow while I am at work, I will NOT go to work.  We have three dogs.

Kristi, if we have any rogue cells ahead of the squall that get consumed, it will be VERY similar to May 2nd with the bonus tornado threat.

Jocomike, I suspect Gary & team are busier than the proverbial one-armed paper-hangers (my apologies to those of you who ARE one-armed paper-hangers, no offense meant :-) ) and we will hear from Jeremy at 5 if not sooner. Hang in there.

Michelle

Kristi-

Thanks a bunch- I would like to leave ASAP, it shouldn't take but an hour to get, there, an hour there, and back home -
Appreciate the info- praying for your folks
tooti

JOCOMIKE and other, they are probably to busy right now.

hahah wow john, that was great... and yes kristy that is what u had been saying, cept his presentation was better... JK JK

lol this is getting interesting

Right Scott.  Thats my thinking.  Is that yours?

Kristi

on the visible you can see that the cold front/dry line retreated off the line of storms and is now about 60 miles west of it and storms are going to refire on it!

Weatherdude,
Are you making fun of my short and to the point stuff? :)

Kristi

scott, werent the early may tornadoes ahead of the squall line along the dry line? What will these possible discrete cells form upon? If the squall line is associated with the cold front.

Gary stated earlier today was his day off and he was going home.  Jeremy is doing the 5 and 6 newscasts then Gary will come back in later when the threat arrives.  Really though, what do you want them to say at this point.  They've made their forecast and put it out there so there's no reason for them to further speculate.

Go, Troe!  Thanks!

Kristi

The wind seems to be blowing at 87th and 435 in Lenexa, but I still see NO break in the clouds.  I will not be upset at all if the cap decides to sit for a while longer.

Will

People have questions and I along with other bloggers are trying to answer them as best as we can.  The blog is not the high priority right now for the team.  They are monitoring a dangerous situation to our west.

Kristi

It's all passed by Hill City.  No known damage, the supercell is moving into Rooks County now.  Grandma is OK!

How many Tornadoes have touched down today?  

chris rice is in the clay center area, check it out, should get interesting

Kristi, I like your short and to the point!  The other info is great but I don't always have the time (not to mention the smarts) to understand all the more in-depth! Thanks for doing such a great job of deciphering all this for us

   
Brocksmama: no relation, sorry and your welcome
and
   
HummerSeeker here is what the spc it thinking for tomorrow
SPC AC 051729
 
  DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1229 PM CDT THU JUN 05 2008
 
  VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WI/FAR EASTERN
  IA/EASTERN MO/NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IL/NORTHERN IND/SOUTHWEST LOWER
  MI...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN
  GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS IS ANTICIPATED
  ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FRIDAY
  AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND
  TORNADOES...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG.
 
  NEARLY STACKED/NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WILL LIFT
  NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ON
  FRIDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY A 70-80 KT SOUTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL JET AND A
  CONTINUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /990-985 MB/. IN ASSOCIATION WITH
  THIS SURFACE LOW...PRIMARY SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
  SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES
  REGION...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT LIKELY RETREATING
  WESTWARD ACROSS THE CORN BELT AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS IN
  RESPONSE TO ROCKIES LEE SIDE PRESSURE FALLS LATE IN THE PERIOD. A
  VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD
  THROUGH THE CENTRAL STATES AMIDST A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE
  TRANSPORT REGIME.
 
  ...UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
  STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
  THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION INCLUDING
  PORTIONS OF MN/WI/UPPER MI/IA/MO. DESTABILIZATION/STORM
  INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY ON THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS
  ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
  WITHIN A RATHER MOIST/UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER.
  WITH UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE IN MOST
  LOCALES...DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE/STRONG
  INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG WITHIN THE PRE-COLD
  FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. BENEATH THE STRONG MID/UPPER JET...STRONG LOW
  TO MID LEVEL TROPOSPHERIC WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR BOTH
  QUASI-DISCRETE SUPERCELLS/DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING STRUCTURES...WITH
  POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES ESPECIALLY IN
  THE MODERATE RISK AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.
 
  THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EXTENT OF AN APPRECIABLE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE
  MORE CONDITIONAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS/SOUTHERN
  PLAINS...OWING TO RISING UPPER HEIGHTS/LIMITED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT
  AND A RETREATING COLD FRONT AND MOIST/UNSTABLE SECTOR. WHILE THE
  SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE MORE CONDITIONAL/RELATIVELY MORE
  SCATTERED/ISOLATED IN NATURE...A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING
  WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES WILL EXIST.
 
  ...PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...
  DIURNAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY WITHIN LOW-LEVEL WAA
  REGIME ACROSS PORTIONS OF NY/PA INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON FRIDAY.
  THE AIRMASS IN WAKE OF WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
  MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. OWING TO MODEST
  LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...VERTICAL SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO BE
  PARTICULARLY STRONG /GENERALLY 30 KT OR LESS/...ALTHOUGH SOME
  SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CANNOT BE RULED OUT NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN A
  SOMEWHAT HIGHER SRH ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL...THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
  BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS FRIDAY
  AFTERNOON/EVENING.
 
  ...NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
  A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROUNDING THE BASE OF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER
  BRITISH COLUMBIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO LIFT
  NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS PERIOD. A FEW
  STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
  AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN INCREASINGLY STRONG VERTICAL
  SHEAR AND RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG.
 
  ..GUYER.. 06/05/2008

southern in my opining would be from Harisonville southward  
 
from areas Harrisonville and southward and eastward for tomorrow we are currently at a 30% chance for severe weather and we are in a hatched area which means siginificant severe weather within 25 miles of a point.

kristi, I agree we should be in a watch around 7 pm or so.

I would be very happy to see live streaming coverage from NBC Action Weather on the internet later.  Any chance of that happening?

Is there another place to watch storm chaser video live, other than Severe Studios?

Mooky, all of them.  Otherwise, they'd be funnel clouds.  I'm not sure, but I figured I bring some levity into this since there are a lot of stressed out people here.

Wahoo -- glad your Grandma is okay!!

Well I am now waiting to here from the Action Team before I make any more guess's.

Looking at the 21Z RUC things seems to be intesafing and the surface low is still stalled over NE.

We WANT them to come on here and say there will be a great show out in a cornfield with enough daylight for chasers to get some great footage, and it will all settle down and be sweetness and light for any and all populated areas!  and popsicles for everybody!  

Ok, so um...can someone translate what John Moon posted into terms I can understand???  : )

When/if this thing hits, is it pretty much going to effect the entire metro the same?

Clay Center KS tornado on the ground in town.

wow was anyone watching Chris Rices cam he is trying to get away for the storm, looked like a could have been a tornado behind him.

gary new blog kristi is wearing this one out

gary new blog kristi is wearing this one out

new blog mooks

Chris has an incredible shot right now...(4:42)

********************

Anyone have the link to Chris's stuff...also where is he located and what is his full name.  We may try to use some of this on-air.

Jeremy

Chris Rice?

Also, looks like the SPC is about to issue a Tornado Watch for our area - http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1234.html

http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

Select Chris Rice cam, think he's east of clay center ks

Chris Strahan www.severestudios.com/livechase

Sure Jeremy (btw, I have a daughter named Ella too!)

http://www.severestudios.com/cgi-bin/stream.pl?username=chris.rice&uid=107

Chris Rice

tornado watch to be issued shortly for the metro!!!

Tornado Watch #466 until midnight for Jefferson and Douglas and Shawnee and Atchison County

Tornado Watch just issued

new blog.....

PDS Tornado Watch

This is what gets so frustrating. The weather team says one thing. Then others come and give their opinions to the contrary,then others contrary to those. What is a person to think? Some tell everyone we'll barely get rained on, others that this could be very bad. Others rant about people being worried, otehrs that we are too complacent.

I know enough to stay aware. But how does this look to someone new or who understands less? I have seen things happen suddenly when we have been under a slight risk and everyone figured nothing would happen and then it does. Whenever I have family home alone, with me, or I am at work and my kids are home alone or my dogs are alone, I am going to be every concerned. But again, if I were new to this blog I wouldn't know if this was just overanxious hype or something to worry about. Think how this sounds to others.