Watch NBC Action News HD today at 5 & 10pm as we track the potential for severe thunderstorms and heavy rain!
Good morning bloggers! Our active weather continues today with thunderstorms that will give us a risk of severe weather and the potential for some hefty rain totals. First things first. Yesterday I mentioned that thunderstorms would move north of Kansas City into the morning hours and those storms(below severe levels) are pushing into northeast Kansas and northwest Missouri. The morning rain should stay north of KC, but we'll need to watch the progression thru the morning. This line will quickly weaken, and then another line will reform during the afternoon as a cold front begins to sag south. Here is a look at the storms on LIVE:ESP from around 7am.
Depending on any cloud cover that pushes into the region, we should warm into the mid 80s with breezy and humid conditions persisting ahead of the front. Once thunderstorms develop today there is a chance of severe weather. Here is the latest outlook from the SPC. If you are familiar with these outlooks there is some good news. The threat for tornadoes in the viewing area is very small.
The main threat for today and tonight will be heavy rain. Flash flood watches are in effect for today into Monday for the viewing area. With the slow movement of the cold front I think some areas will pick up 1-3" of rain or even more. Below is the 6Z GFS rainfall forecast. If you follow the blog you'll notice that this forecast really has not shifted too much in the last couple of days.
Both of our in-house computer models give Kansas City over 3" of rain by Monday morning. Here is some information no one else in Kansas City can provide...a comparison of Powercast forecast rain totals and Futurecast.
Location Futurecast Powercast
KCI Airport 3.54" 5.77"
Olathe 4.95" 3.38"
Knob Noster 1.65" 3.65"
Lawrence 4.22" 4.95"
St. Joseph 1.70" 1.58"
Lee's Summit 4.57" 3.98"
Averaging out the models it looks like the heaviest band of rain should occur from somewhere around or south of St. Joseph to about Emporia and Harrisonville. However, the 12Z NAM pushes the band even farther south and has Kansas City on the northern edge of the heavy rain. I want to emphasize that not everyone is going to see heavy rain and that it takes an ideal setup to maximize the rain potential and see widespread totals of 2-3" or more. And some areas will likely see under 0.50". Certainly our atmosphere is primed to produce heavy rain and the speed of the front and degree of thunderstorm training across the area will go a long way in determining how much rain falls across the region.
We will be nowcasting this event as it develops later today and tonight and will bring you the best weather coverage once again on NBC, NBC Action Weather Plus, and right here in the blog! Have a great day and make sure to tell your friends and family where they can see our weather forecasts!
Jeremy