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Severe T-Storm Watch...Rain Forecast Update

Watch NBC Action News HD at 5 & 10pm for updates on possible severe weather and heavy rain for the region!

The SPC just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for part of the viewing area until 8 p.m.  The watch includes Kansas City and most locations to the north, and a few couties to the southwest.  There is a line of thunderstorms developing that extends from Iowa to around Manhattan, KS.  These are the storms that we will watch this afternoon and evening for any possible severe weather.  Right now the greatest threat with these storms would be hail and strong winds.  Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out, but the chances are very small today.

Here is a product from the Storm Prediction Center.  Notice that the chance of 2 or more tornadoes in the entire watch is low.  We will be tracking it for you this afternoon and evening, as this more likely develops into a flooding event tonight.

Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes

Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (5%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (40%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Low (20%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (80%)

 

The surface observations clearly show the cold front location and also that there is a low in Iowa.  With the additional 'twist' in the atmosphere the possibility of tornadoes is higher in Iowa, thus the Tornado Watch has been posted for that area.  Look at the temperature and dew point difference behind the front!  Relief is on the way for those that don't like warm and humid weather.

Finally, I want to give you an update to the rainfall forecast.  It looks like the greatest threat for rain comes in after 6 or 7 p.m. for Kansas City.  The latest Powercast has backed off on the heavy rain totals a bit which is good news if that actually happens.  The totals are now just over 3" for this event versus the earlier runs showing 5"+.  Powercast has also dropped the rain totals for northern areas including St. Joseph...now down to just over 0.50".  It will be interesting to see how this plays out but it looks like the heaviest rain may be right near Kansas City and points south and southwest.  So my thoughts of 1-3"+ in a band still look pretty good.  The area of rain should grow in coverage this evening and that is when the main threat for heavy rain will move into the city. 

Jeremy

Published Sunday, June 08, 2008 1:41 PM by Jeremy WxPlus

Comments

 

juba said:

Ok. A nice linie line has formed.
June 8, 2008 1:55 PM
 

Roberto said:

No svr t-storm warnings yet. I wonder if the hail probabilities or wind probabilities are to low. It is a pretty nasty line of developing storms. But, flooding still looks like the main threat, but it is the most dangerous threat.
June 8, 2008 2:01 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Quick question...my in laws are driving up here from Louisiana, are these storms moving off to the west or are they moving to the south and they would be driving into them?
June 8, 2008 2:01 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Nice looking line of storms...Do you think they may form into a bow echo later today?

Alex from Marceline, MO
June 8, 2008 2:09 PM
 

FIREEMS said:

storms in this are vary rarely move to the west, FYI these are moving to the east
June 8, 2008 2:09 PM
 

MusicInOlathe said:

Still not sure what time this is moving in.  Can anyone give me an ETA for the rain to move into Overland Park?  Thanks for your help!

*****************

I answered that below...

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 2:16 PM
 

bewild79 said:

I meant to say east.....lol sorry!
June 8, 2008 2:17 PM
 

MusicInOlathe said:

Thanks Jeremy!!  We will cross our fingers for 6!  :)
June 8, 2008 2:21 PM
 

FIREEMS said:

some one asked in the previous blog, is this it for the rain (this current line) or will showers and storms redevelop the rest of the day and night? Thanks
June 8, 2008 2:25 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I walk away from the computer for awhile.  I will be in and out all afternoon and evening.  I have too many things going on to be able to post in the blog a lot at this point.

Anyway, looks like a severe t-storm warning for the eastern part of Nemaha County in KS.  I haven't had a chance to track the storms to know which direction they are moving.  But from the responses above, it looks they are moving east.

Nice update, Jeremy!  You rock. :)

Kristi
June 8, 2008 2:26 PM
 

Chase said:

Would love to know some thoughts on how much rain you think those of us down south in Miami county might get out of this.

******************

I think your chances of 2-3"+ are a little better than just 24 hours ago.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 2:27 PM
 

farmgirl said:

So when the forcast says points south and west for the heaviest ran, are we talking wichita area or closer to KC such as La Cygne, Ottawa and Fort Scott? The Marais Des Cygne in La Cygne is extremely full and I'm worried the town is going to get flooded again like last July.

********************

I would expect you to see a couple of inches of rain...maybe more.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 2:31 PM
 

Roberto said:

Becky,
  The storms are moving NNE, the farther north on the line, the more NE they are moving, the farther south, the more N they are moving, basically NNE.
June 8, 2008 2:39 PM
 

GaryB said:

It appears the heavier rain will eventually be south and southeast.
June 8, 2008 2:44 PM
 

twister11 said:

Jeremy, are the storms in Kansas the ones that are going to give us the heavy rain? It is struggling to grow in size right now, it is really small
June 8, 2008 2:52 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

jeremy, do you see areas like warrensburg knob and sedalia getting a watch later? ohter than flood lol
June 8, 2008 2:52 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Jeremy it's a nice narrow line, do we expect more wide spread development or just a slow moving line? thanks!

Jonathan

*********************

More will develop...but probably not until this evening.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 2:53 PM
 

pilotskcx said:

Jeremy,

We're going out to set up on these, locally in the KC area.  We'll blog reports for you for any flooding, etc., and the off chance of a spin up.

We're still waiting on the server admin to email us the 'stuff' so we can upload the vids.  I was hoping to have that done by now.  Sorry it's taking so long.

Jeff Nielsen

******************

Let us know if you see anything!

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 2:55 PM
 

Chase said:

Thanks Jeremy, much appreciated!
June 8, 2008 2:56 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

how much rain will kci get?
June 8, 2008 3:02 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

some of the cells are looking rather super cellular. I am detecting some rotation and a few have distinct hook echoes.

****************

I'm still not overly impressed with the line.  It is producing some heavy rain...especially over Brown County.  If anyone in the blog lives in Brown County around Hiawatha please send in a rain total after that cell clears your area.  The line may weaken some before the upper energy gets more storms going this evening.  The big heavy rain threat arrives this evening and tonight.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 3:09 PM
 

MrMojoJosh said:

Ok, guys, question: my brother wants me to come over to his house (154th and Antioch) to watch the basketball game.  I'll have to park my brand new car in his driveway from 6-10pm.  Given the risk of wind hail, what would you do?

***************

Have your brother pick you up:)  Actually I think you'd be fine...but if you don't want to risk it play it safe.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 3:18 PM
 

Suej said:

Jeremy, my 17 year old is working a baseball tournament in Topeka that ends around 6 or so.  Is he likely to run into nasty stuff on the way home?

/signed/  Nervous Mama
June 8, 2008 3:24 PM
 

Alden said:

Good blog. Thanks for keeping us informed.
June 8, 2008 3:26 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

To me, i still see 4 distinct cells worth watching, probably nothing will develop but i am gunna keep an eye on them.

How does the rain look up here in Leavenworth? Flooding threat going to be up here tonight?
June 8, 2008 3:26 PM
 

weatherwunder said:

Mr. Josh, Take a taxi or stay home.
June 8, 2008 3:28 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Jeremy, Thanks for the update. Not much can do but wait for the rain.

Doesn't this spring seem more severe and more moisture abondant than most? The wet, rainy pattern seems very similar to what happened last July. Just wondering if it will finally dwindle to a nice, warm dry pattern. I hope we don't get the record heat like last year, but a couple nice upper 80 degree days with low to moderate humidity would be nice. If it keeps raining at this rate, hay will not be good again this year and very pricey. :(

******************

I think record highs would be tough to come by this summer with the wet soils.  We would have to see a dry period to evaporate some of the moisture around...then maybe the hot stuff comes our way. 

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 3:33 PM
 

LVStormSpotter said:

mr. josh, you should be fine, the risk isnt that high for large enough hail.

i would take the risk.
June 8, 2008 3:35 PM
 

gmajc said:

I live a few miles north of Warsaw.  Any ideas on rain totals and will our area be placed in the watch?  I'm a first time poster, but have read the blog for a long time!

*******************

Welcome to the blog!  If you are placed in a watch it would likely occur at 10pm or later.  You could see 1-2" of rain.  Maybe a little more depending on where the heaviest band sets up.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 4:02 PM
 

jsfahy1991 said:

Jeremy, Do you think Gardner is going to get alot of this rain?
June 8, 2008 4:04 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

yeah guys. If your really worried about severe weather tonight. I don't know if your familiar with Severe weather watch probs but our watch probs are pretty low compared to a lot we've been under this year. I think really it's going to be a heavy rainfall event, which isn't good for a lot folks either but I don't expect a widespread severe hail event. given the fact that the storms are forming into a line I would expect more of a wind event but even that would probably be marginally severe not like we've seen a lot of this year. So lets enjoy the rain even if we don't like it. Because I can remember in the past 8 years us mainly being at least in slight drought conditions so I for one am thankful for all the rain we are getting because like my father always says it's better to have and not need then need and not have. Have a wonderful day everyone!
June 8, 2008 4:12 PM
 

juniorfan32 said:

I don't think the line is all that.  Just not impressive.  Oh well we will know soon enough.  Looks wimpy to me.

*******************

As I mentioned earlier this line may have a tough time hanging together.  There another disturbance that will move toward us tonight and that along with the front will produce an area of heavy rain.  This is why the forecast for northeast KS and northwest MO has been for lower rain totals. 

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 4:18 PM
 

JustinG said:

MrMojoJosh:

Since it's a brand new car I assume you are making monthly payments.  If that is the case then you should have full coverage.  If the car gets damaged, it's covered.  So take a chance.
June 8, 2008 4:22 PM
 

littleladybugs said:

what are you thinking for the parkville/farley area???
June 8, 2008 4:26 PM
 

MrMojoJosh said:

JustinG - true, but the $500 deductable (and a couple of days without the car) is enough to convince me otherwise.

Jeremy - do you anticipate that this line moving through is the end of the severe weather, or do you think we'll have more to follow that will be worse?
June 8, 2008 4:27 PM
 

juba said:

Yup, that line is strengthening, and dieing to the south, it looks pretty impressive moving at probably 1 MPH!
June 8, 2008 4:28 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Storm Spotter activation Jefferson County KS until 5PM.  Winds in excess of 60mph reported in Valley Falls.
June 8, 2008 4:28 PM
 

davidmcg said:

NO rotation in line moving across Jefferson County
June 8, 2008 4:30 PM
 

pilotskcx said:

We're in St Jo now, there's a couple of 69mph shear sigs on them that pop on and off, but visually it's looks like it's pretty merged moving about 30mph to the NE.

Not to impressive so far.
June 8, 2008 4:30 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Unless you and your farm are in the path.
June 8, 2008 4:32 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning until 5:15PM for central Shawnee, Southest Jackson and all of Jefferson County KS.  Movement east at 28mph.  Damaging winds in excess of 60mph.  So much for not very impressive.
June 8, 2008 4:36 PM
 

gmajc said:

Thanks Jeremy.  We rely mostly on the NWS since we don't receive KC channels on Dish Network and Springfield stations usually ignore us.  It's nice to know I have a place where I can ask weather questions!
June 8, 2008 4:36 PM
 

MikeL said:

Seemingly typical squall line moving into SW Topeka at this time.  Temp is dropping as rained cooled air coming in - 84F down to 79F in the past 5 minutes or so.  We'll see how this plays out.  Severe thunderstorm warning in Shawnee county now as davidmcg mentioned above.

Mike
June 8, 2008 4:43 PM
 

juba said:

I'm starting to get confused, are we supposed to get 1-3" of rain with this one little line of storms? Or is it forecasted to become a MCS?

***************

More rain tonight.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 4:43 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Radar indicated 3" hail North Topeka
June 8, 2008 4:43 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

really David? wow? why wouldn't the SPC have seen this?
June 8, 2008 4:54 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Dime size hail Ozawkie KS
June 8, 2008 4:55 PM
 

bewild79 said:

ok are these storm threats just wind hail and rain?
June 8, 2008 4:57 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

yeah Becky. You can never rule out a tornado with any Severe Thunderstorm but the Tornado Probabilities are VERY low with this Severe Thunderstorm watch.
June 8, 2008 4:58 PM
 

MikeL said:

No hail or hardly any wind in SW Topeka as this is moving through - just mainly heavy rain, thunder, lightning .  Any hail has been north and east of here. Mike
June 8, 2008 5:02 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Thanks Johanathan!
June 8, 2008 5:02 PM
 

bewild79 said:

So is it the south part of the line that would hit the northland?
June 8, 2008 5:03 PM
 

davidmcg said:

1" hail Ozawkie KS
June 8, 2008 5:03 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I'm sure that's reassuring to a lot of bloggers right now Mike!=)
June 8, 2008 5:04 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

ahem "Jonathan";) Your very welcome Becky!
June 8, 2008 5:04 PM
 

juba said:

The noaa website is glitching, some cities you can not click on, it will not load correctly
June 8, 2008 5:07 PM
 

davidmcg said:

MikeL how is it now.  Radar showing a cell passing by you right now with up to 1.5" hail
June 8, 2008 5:08 PM
 

bewild79 said:

Sorry I am kinda in pain right now..having issues.  I fell at worlds of fun yesterday and sprianed my ankle really bad. lol.  I dont normally spell it wrong :)
June 8, 2008 5:09 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Just a heads up to anybody near and east of the St Joseph area. I was just on the radar and that storm appears to have bulged out into a small bow echo looking thing so that storm might be gusty be sure and stay away from windows with that one.

wunderground.com is the radar I'm looking at.
June 8, 2008 5:10 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I was just kidding Becky. I'm sorry you fell. did you have a good time at least?
June 8, 2008 5:10 PM
 

adogg said:

So, will drexel get any severe weather tonight, or just rain?
June 8, 2008 5:16 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Severe Thunderstorm Warning Jefferson County KS until 6PM movement east at 30mph.  This warning replaces previous reported.  NWS employee reports wind in excess of 60mph east of Ozawkie.
June 8, 2008 5:16 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

wait a minute, so Becky what your saying is  you type with your feet?=)
June 8, 2008 5:16 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

My mom is now nearing St. Joe heading back home to Lincoln...when I just talked to her she said it was lightening a bunch.  I'm nervous for her...has there been any reported hail with this storm or just the strong wind?
June 8, 2008 5:18 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Adogg. anywhere in our viewing area has a slight risk of severe weather. I don't remember where Drexel is located but I'm sure your in the slight risk too. But the emphasis is mainly on heavy rainfall today. But remember Severe weather can and does happen at any given moment so just be prepared, but what I'm saying is that the risk is low.
June 8, 2008 5:18 PM
 

bewild79 said:

lol Jonathan no.  The pain is messing with me lol.  Yea I had lots of fun.  Havent been there in like 8 yrs!
Becky
June 8, 2008 5:20 PM
 

MikeL said:

davidmcg (and all),

The clouds are breaking up to the southwest.  I had no hail here and very little wind. Any hail or wind has been to the north and east of here. I had .33 rain with a little spotty light rain still falling. Temp 72.3F.

Nothing severe here and it looks like we're done at my location for the time being...Mike
June 8, 2008 5:24 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

yeah I would like to go this summer sometime, I went once last year. The Patriot is an amazing roller coaster!

Emmysmom, I just checked the radar again. the storm still showed signs of bowing forward indicating gusty winds but the radar echoes were weakening a bit so the hail threat is probably going down. So the best advice for them is to just pull over and ride the storm out until it passes.
June 8, 2008 5:24 PM
 

pilotskcx said:

Just moving S thru St Jo now...very high wind and precip.  No real debris yet.

We did see some convective lowering but no real rotation to speak of.
June 8, 2008 5:25 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Once again, anybody who can pick up Channel 11 KTWU Topeka at 8PM they are showing the big Topeka tornado
June 8, 2008 5:25 PM
 

adogg said:

Thanks Hail, Drexel is to the south, south of louisburg, ks, north of Laygne.
June 8, 2008 5:25 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Adogg. okay then what I said was accurate.
Pilots thank you for that report. when I saw the reflectivity on the radar it looked like it was producing winds because of the echoes lunging forward I'm glad to know I gave accurate information!
June 8, 2008 5:29 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

New MD for east of KC - I can't believe this small line on its way seems to cause discussion.  I guess I have alot to learn...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1286.html
June 8, 2008 5:33 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

well lets see what it says.
June 8, 2008 5:35 PM
 

pilotskcx said:

S I-29 mile marker 33...hard rain (peas size hail) and high wind.  Approaching the clearing line...The front side of the middle of the line.
June 8, 2008 5:35 PM
 

Emmysmom said:

Thank Hail : )  She has moved through St. Joe...said there was a lot of rain, but she didn't really experience any wind that she couldn't handle.  She is now going through some heavy rain, so hopefull this is the end before they get out of the line.  The lightening has been kind of impressive, she said.
June 8, 2008 5:36 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

well based on what that Discussion says, I think maybe the SPC is implying that maybe the squall line may strengthen and grow in size, but that wouldn't surprise me because I've been analyzing the water vapor satellite and you can clearly see an Upper level feature with cold air aloft meeting up with the thunderstorms as we speak so it's not a surprise but I still don't think anybody needs to get upset over it though. just be prepared and know where your safe places are and like I said before. Music always calms my fears if I'm afraid of something or if you like other hobbies you can do those as well.

*****************

I expect this evening that the storms grow and expand.  The primary severe weather threat will remain as strong winds and hail.  Any storm will also produce heavy rain.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 5:39 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Miami and Linn Counties are now in a severe thunderstorm watch. :(
June 8, 2008 5:39 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

No problem Emmy!
June 8, 2008 5:40 PM
 

Teamster83 said:

so is this the line that suppose to cause 3 inches of rain. i so not hope so
June 8, 2008 5:44 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Hi FarmGirl..I'm sorry you've had such a rough year but if this is any comfort out of all the severe weather days this year this is probably the lowest threat we've been under all year. with storms actually happening of course.
June 8, 2008 5:44 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Emmy I bet the lightning is impressive. It's so humid outside. I found it odd when I learned this fact but Did you know that when it's very humid outside a thunderstorm produces more lightning strikes?
June 8, 2008 5:46 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Teamster. There is an Upper level Low/Trough coming outof the West right now and it's supposed to develop more thunderstorms, so thats why flooding is going to be a threat later this evening or tonight.
June 8, 2008 5:47 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Thanks Hail. I wouldn't be such a wimp if my barn roof wasn't hanging on by a few nails. Insurance adjuster finally called today and will be out middle of next week. So hopefully it won't be too long before I can get it repaired. Got some of the other stuff fixed and picked up. Lets hope the basement stays dry! Like everyone else, the sump pump is working non-stop.
June 8, 2008 5:52 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I just want to throw this out there for all the nervous folks. The new T-storm watch that was just issued to the east and south east of KC has lower probabilities than the one for KC Metro so those to the east may be able to rest a little easier=) Just remember to be prepared because things can change in a flash of lightning!
June 8, 2008 5:53 PM
 

Awtherfrd said:

Running to Wal-Mart right now to get a rain guage. The way Gardner has seemed to be a rain magnet through out these last few storms I am predicting over 3 inches for Gardner. That is my uneducated guess.

http://www.zazzle.com/lrc_shirt-235010432022908057
June 8, 2008 5:53 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Sure would be nice if this storm went Poof like some of our winter storms! :)
June 8, 2008 5:53 PM
 

MrMojoJosh said:

HailJonathan - what is the risk of severe weather with the thunderstorms that develop later this evening and tonight?
June 8, 2008 5:54 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

geez so the heavy rain is still a big problem too for you, huh farm girl. well i hope that you can be spared from most of the heavy rain fall  and everything else. I for one Love when I get nailed but I know that there are those that suffer greatly from it and I do feel bad for those people and I wish that there was something that I could do.
June 8, 2008 5:54 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Hope the NWS site is wrong. They are saying Miami/Linn counties could get 3-4 inches tonight and another 1-2 tomorrow. I like Jeremy's forecast a bunch better!
June 8, 2008 5:57 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

mainly marginally severe hail and wind. this shouldn't be a really severe event for anybody. like i said before you cant rule out a tornado with any severe thunderstorm but this doesn't look like a major severe event for anybody, just be prepared anyway, however I am noticing the part of the line north of Kansas city to east of St Joseph has bowed out significantly so if you live out ahead of that line I would expect gusty winds with that but the radar echoes are weak with it so hail threat is probably low.
June 8, 2008 6:00 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

well it's getting pretty late in the evening and I'm not seeing any more wide spread development. at least yet though the storms in oklahoma are getting prolific I'm not sure if those are supposed to affect us later tonight or not.
June 8, 2008 6:03 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

Hail Hail to Hail!!!  :)  Thanks for all of your kind reassurances today!  :)  

Farmgirl, you sound like my relatives in Iowa.  They are having a really tough time on their farm and in the fields this summer.  My uncle is ready to hang it up after all the weather and mechanical issues.  Hang in there!!!  We need you all!!!
June 8, 2008 6:03 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Thanks Northland girl. I only say what I know and I'll tell you if I don't know! I try and be the nicest guy I can be although I get manic sometimes so I know sometimes you've seen me act a little crazy=P
June 8, 2008 6:07 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

Did anyone get the warning on their radio regarding Platte County?  Mine didn't go off...
June 8, 2008 6:08 PM
 

Bob from Lawrence said:

Heavy rain has now arrived in my part of Lawrence.

*****************

Thanks for the report Bob!  If it stops please send along a total.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 6:13 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

no I don't have my weather radio turned on. but the warning is for central platte county until 6:30 if you were unaware.
June 8, 2008 6:15 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

the discussion only mentioned damaging winds as a threat so it appears there is no severe hail with this storm.
June 8, 2008 6:17 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

"Storms do have a history of producing widespread wind damage over Jefferson County KS" so if you live in Leavenworth or Platte counties stay away from windows.
June 8, 2008 6:18 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

Looks like the Lawrence area is under a TS Warning now as well.  Let us know how it rides out Bob!
June 8, 2008 6:19 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

Jon, nice to see you on here. Just got back in town from st. louis. what time are you thinking the thunder and storms will start by my house?
June 8, 2008 6:19 PM
 

bellgolf08 said:

fairway med. i was in st louis this weekend!!! great bloggers think alike!!!
June 8, 2008 6:22 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Lawrence storm discussion says damaging winds and quarter size hail. No history reported with this storm.

Hey mark how are you doing? how was st louis. storms should be in our area within an 1 hour and a half to 2 hours.
June 8, 2008 6:23 PM
 

Bob from Lawrence said:

Add about 20 seconds of marble sized hail to my earlier comment.  Not enough or hard enough to do any damage, just a bit of a bonus to this round of action.

And at this point we are up too .3" of rain which has been accompanied by 2 significant electrical burps.

Now it looks like my rain gauge has been put out of action...this is not good at all.

*******************

Looks like the worst may be just to your east...outside of the steady rain.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 6:27 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

mark these storms are actually hard to track because they are making progress to the east but the storm motion is actually more NNE so it makes it difficult to track them but I'd say that's my best guess I'll let you know as it gets closer.
June 8, 2008 6:28 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

if anybody lives near chilicothe or Trenton there is a bow echo approaching your area but as far as I can tell it's not warned for anything but be prepared for gusty winds.
June 8, 2008 6:30 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

thanks Jon. St. louis was good. very hot and muggy but we had a good time. didnt realize i would be coming home to storms since I had no internet access there and never saw a news report. We had some storms develop behind us midway through missouri and I was just glad that we didnt have to drive through them but I could see the lightning out the rear view mirror.
June 8, 2008 6:33 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

S Leavenworth, Johnson and Wyandotte Counties now under Severe T Storm Warnings. Mark I'd say give amber her pill at 7 PM
June 8, 2008 6:34 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

This storm has a history now of "destructive" winds of 70 Mph so get away from windows in those locations. although I will be outside greeting it when it comes.
June 8, 2008 6:35 PM
 

Bob from Lawrence said:

Back up rain gauge reading now has us at 1.26", and it is still raining fairly heavily.
June 8, 2008 6:35 PM
 

kurt said:

Less than half and inch here, looks like the heavy rain went just northwest of here and now appears to be sliding off the the south and east.  I was hoping for a really good soaking, maybe next time.  I am afraid that when the rain does shut off we will be really huring for moisture up here north of Kansas City and just south of St. Joseph.

******************

Your total should get you by until your next chance probably Wednesday/Thursday.  Thanks for the report.  Did you miss the 70+ mph winds?

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 6:35 PM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

Olathe is now under S Thunderstormn Warning. Hurray
June 8, 2008 6:36 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

I just gave her the pill 2 minutes before you posted that so she is preemptively ready and calm. It usually takes about an hour to kick in. Thank you for the great advice Jon!
June 8, 2008 6:37 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

Dark as heck with some funnnnnnky clouds here!  I'm at 169 and Cookinghham area...      Best cloud show I've seen all spring I think!
June 8, 2008 6:38 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

actually mark I'd give amber the pill pretty quick here because you should start hearing thunder pretty quick
June 8, 2008 6:39 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

okay good deal
June 8, 2008 6:39 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Mark this is pretty much the equivalent of me working at the storm prediction center like I always dreamed of. It's kind of like me issuing warnings and stuff. I really love this.
June 8, 2008 6:41 PM
 

lezakEF5 said:

Has anyone noticed the storms around the Texas and Oklahoma panhandal....They look monsterous...Jeremy, what size hail do you think they are producing?

Alex
June 8, 2008 6:41 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

hahah hail, i will probably be doing the same thing!

im pretty excited... the first line coming through was pretty "calm" so to speak... when they say 70mph winds... i kinda get scared tho.

the winds are still blowing here... and its actually not bad out without the sun :D

You can really see the skies darkening to the west and the northwest
June 8, 2008 6:43 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

the visible satellite shows "over shooting tops" on those storms approaching Johnson County so they have to pretty strong, take them seriously.
June 8, 2008 6:43 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

Jonathan, You are my Gary Lezak and the team when they are not on the air!
June 8, 2008 6:44 PM
 

Matt P said:

Northlandgirl, I noticed the same thing.  We've over near the new Liberty Oaks school, but we can see quite a ways.
June 8, 2008 6:44 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Thanks Mark!
June 8, 2008 6:46 PM
 

h8torade said:

I asked my wife and she was hoping to see 8 inches tonight.......

of rain.
June 8, 2008 6:46 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Northland Girl...are the clouds bubbling underneath. if so those are called Mammatus Clouds.
June 8, 2008 6:47 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Mark, the part of the line heading towards your area is a little bit bowed out I'd expect some pretty intense winds out of that. if you can do any last minute preperations outside with your patio furniture and things I would do it.
June 8, 2008 6:50 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

Yup!  Yea!!!  I have Mammatus!!  :)  Dark swirly and fast moving scud stuff underneath too...  Good show!
June 8, 2008 6:52 PM
 

auroramama said:

Jonathan bless you for mentioning pills. I don't know who you were talking to but you made me remember that I hadn't given my dog his pills that he gets to keep him from having a meltdown when it thunders.

Well looks like here in Belton we are going to get smacked.  I am being brave and staying home since it looks like (hopefully) this will not be a tornadic event....
June 8, 2008 6:53 PM
 

Alden said:

Dish is out, so if there is any weather coverage, I'm missing it...
June 8, 2008 6:54 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

cool Northland girl, Mammatus are some of the neatest most fascinating clouds and they only accompany severe thunderstorms. one of the reasons I love severe weather so much.

auroramama I'm glad I've been an inspiration!
June 8, 2008 6:55 PM
 

Awtherfrd said:

I heard from my parents that thier were streets in Lawrence that had 8 inches of water rushing down them.

*************

Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 6:56 PM
 

LSMOWatcher said:

Do we have a "the storm will be near blank city" statement yet?  Can't tell when Lee's Summit will see anything.  <running out to pick up the kids toys outside>
June 8, 2008 6:58 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Extreme S Platte South CLay and Northern Jackson Counties in Missouri now under severe thunderstorm warnings.
June 8, 2008 6:58 PM
 

Kelly said:

T-Storm warning for Jackson County MO. Looks like it is North of Raytown right now.

Kelly
June 8, 2008 7:00 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

LSMO you should be in the clear for sometime, the line is really moving more northeast than East i'll put a message out when I feel that area is threatened more
June 8, 2008 7:02 PM
 

Bob from Lawrence said:

Updated in storm total is now 1.62"

*****************

Thanks for the total!  Please keep us updated.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:02 PM
 

WEATHERdude said:

These storms seem different than the ones that were hitting during our PDS tornado watch.... these seem stronger... any storm reports coming in?

im kinda getting worried... lol
June 8, 2008 7:03 PM
 

davidmcg said:

Storm report for you from central Jefferson County KS.  At 5:34 we had heavy rain until 5:53 and moderate winds.  Current rainfall total is  0.60", more in McLouth itself.  Pea size hail.  Over in McLouth a lot of the town is without electricity.  Numerous lims and trees on lines and houses.  Valley Falls is also without electricity.

******************

Thanks for the report...I'll pass it along.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:03 PM
 

LSMOWatcher said:

Thanks Hail!  Is Kristi still not blogging here?  
June 8, 2008 7:05 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Stay safe everyone!!!
June 8, 2008 7:06 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

Yeah, this is totally the scariest storm of the spring here I think!  Dark, green, loud thunder and torrential rain.  Winds are hitting, but don't seem to be much more than what they have been. Just gustier.  Yuck!!!
June 8, 2008 7:07 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

LSMO ~ Kristi said in an earlier post that she was really busy tonight.
June 8, 2008 7:08 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

oh wow. Thanks for the report David. okay folks. so the wind threat is increasing. i'm going back to radar.
June 8, 2008 7:08 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Yes Kristi has been blogging again...she had some stuff to catch up on. I am sure she will be back later this evening.  I am patiently waiting my turn for the rain, wind and hail again. Maybe I will get lucky and get missed. LOL!!
Monica
Pleasanton, KS
June 8, 2008 7:09 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

MARBLE Hail!!  

*****************

Can you measure a piece...I'll pass the report to the NWS.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:10 PM
 

Larry A said:

NW Lawrence has received 1.36" in less than one hour.

Larry

********************

Larry,

Thanks for the report...let me know when it ends.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:10 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

she is. she must be busy this afternoon. I think she's had some medical emergencies lately I'm not for sure.
June 8, 2008 7:11 PM
 

Kelly said:

She's here, just off line. What home weather stations do you all use?

Kelly
June 8, 2008 7:11 PM
 

hyrollin said:

I have to say that some of these clouds up by clay cty airport are making me a bit nervous the way they look.
June 8, 2008 7:12 PM
 

LSMOWatcher said:

Thanks all.  I hadn't taken the time to go back and read all the posts yet.  She's close to my neck of the woods, I think.

Patiently waiting for some cool clouds to come my way.  Rain gauge is empty and ready to go.
June 8, 2008 7:13 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Weatherdude. it's important to remain calm during these situations. i've witnessed a lot of 70-80 mph wind events and yes they blow trees down and things like that and I've watched it out my window before but at the same time you have to appreciate what's going on. you kind of just have to pretend when it's happening that your watching a youtube video because if you were watching it on youtube it would be cool right?
June 8, 2008 7:13 PM
 

Maria said:

Just got back from visiting family in Omaha last night...the tornado there went SE of us by about 1/2 mile.  We woke up to really strong winds and rain around 2:15 a.m. and I went and checked the weather websites and saw the bow echo, but at the time, there were no warnings on the cell at all (just a SVR TS Watch).  Then the wind got really bad (all I could see was the large oak tree in my Dad's front yard that is probably 2-3 ft in diameter bent at almost a 90 degree angle).  Then it stopped for about 10 seconds, I thought it was over and happened again.  We saw 3-4 neon green flashes just South of us during that time.  Then AFTER the really bad part, the tornado sirens went off.  Just goes to show you shouldn't rely on tornado sirens.  They issued a severe thunderstorm and within 5 minutes issued the tornado warning.  This is the second storm this year that I know of (there and NKC) where a bow echo produced a tornado that caused damages.  Initial reports there are it was an EF2.  We got home here about 5 minutes before this line came through here (but had to drive through it near St. Joe).  I've had my fill of severe weather now!

********************

Make sure to repost this again on a calm day so more people can read your comment!

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:14 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Jonathan,
You are doing a great job! :)  I will be around in a bit.  Want to take pics as storm moves in.

Kristi
June 8, 2008 7:15 PM
 

Awtherfrd said:

getting dark in gardner and the winds are picking up. Lots of thunder to our north and west no rain yet.
June 8, 2008 7:16 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

if you live in Eastern Clay County I'd get ready. Johnson County, KS too.

************
Hey Jonathan,

Gary told me he had a chance to meet you today.  Hopefully when I'm out and about at things down the road I'll meet you too.

Just a heads up you can keep adding to the blog, but as long as I'm not on air I'll do my best to respond to questions/comments unless the weather calls:)  I'm going to start a new blog right now. 

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:17 PM
 

Matt P said:

Northlandgirl, I'm not too far from you, but we didn't get any hail. However, we did get some impressive wind and rain.  Remember when you say "marble-sized" that marbles come in many different sizes.
June 8, 2008 7:19 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

I can Understand Maria. Lets all prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
June 8, 2008 7:19 PM
 

auroramama said:

So here in Cass (northwestern Cass) this is one where it's fine for us to stay here right....don't need to go somewhere with a basement?
June 8, 2008 7:19 PM
 

Lorie in SW MO said:

Oh wow, Maria! What a day you've had. Thanks for posting your experiences.
June 8, 2008 7:20 PM
 

mamaof3girls said:

Man Maria...that sounds scary. My oldest daughter is 7 and she said she wanted to move back to Gardner KS because she did not have to go to the basement as much as she does living here. LOLOL, funny the things kids remember.
Pleasanton, KS
June 8, 2008 7:20 PM
 

C in Raymore said:

just sent the hubby out of little ceasers pizza, forgot all about the rain for some reason. i think he should get back before it starts raining, if we get any
June 8, 2008 7:21 PM
 

jacob said:

The Lee's Summit force field is up.  =)
June 8, 2008 7:23 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Guys I don't want to alarm anybody I just want to make people aware of the situation thats developing.
On Radar there are tiny descrete cells developing ahead of the main line. If one of these cells is to merge with the main line, the tornado threat goes up. Remember what Jeremy and Gary always say, the chance of a tornado actually hitting your house is VERY SMALL but I just wanted everyone to be aware of the situation. usually these are small spin ups.

*********************

Jonathan,

In the future you may want to let the weather team let people know about possible tornado signatures on radar.  Just leave a comment and we'll try to help everyone out if you have a question.  Thanks.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:23 PM
 

Roberto said:

Lots of lightning-it looks like! I hope everyone stays indoor no matter if you are storm warned or not. JoCo looks to have some 65-70MPH winds near Olathe.
June 8, 2008 7:23 PM
 

DOBE500 said:

Thunder and darkening skies...but so far no rain here yet in Edgerton, Ks......probably won't be long before the pouring starts here.

Andrew
June 8, 2008 7:24 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Overland park area there is a cell that will merge right over your area if there is anybody in the overland Park area.
June 8, 2008 7:25 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

Ha!  Very true Matt!  I'm thinking the good marbles - not shooters.  My dad still has a jar from when he was a kid.  Just definitely larger than pea sized.  My dad is on the north side of Liberty and he didn't get hail either.  Raining too hard for me to check the gauge yet and too dark to see that far, but it's definitely let up here.  
June 8, 2008 7:25 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

auroramama for the next 2 hours I think your safe.
June 8, 2008 7:26 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Is the whole line that is approaching have strong winds or just those red colored cells near Olathe? I'm watching the storm that is near Ottawa right now since that is the one that will most likely come through my area near La Cygne.
June 8, 2008 7:29 PM
 

auroramama said:

It looks like there is a little cell that might be moving towards us.  I know this was already asked so I apologize but I didn't see an answer...is this line it or is there more coming?  I know the line extends way down south but I don't know how it's moving.  
June 8, 2008 7:30 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

Thunder has begun here in Fairway. It has gotten very dark over the last few minutes and the wind in the trees has really started to pick up. no rain yet.
June 8, 2008 7:33 PM
 

Adam Penney said:

Wow....Ive been out chasing so much and having been looking at the blog during these situations and Im glad that I havent. Wont spend time harping on this right now as it is not an appropriate time.

To see untrained people predicting "spinu-ups" by extremely small cells and uncausing unwarranted panic, is really incredible. This situation doesnt call for the need of this kind of panic. Wow....
June 8, 2008 7:33 PM
 

DOBE500 said:

Heavy rain, but no high winds or frequent lightning in Edgerton.......yet.  

Andrew
June 8, 2008 7:34 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

I was just outside setting the trash out, looked up, and wow, those clouds!  No thunder, no lightening, but looking straight up over the house there was a definate area of rotation.  
SLOW rotation, but squirrling andd swiring around none the less.  I just stood there watching this suck up other clouds into in the center.  Stupid, yep, but still amazing.  Seeing something like that - it's real easy to see how these gust fronts can spin up little tornados.
June 8, 2008 7:34 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

Jeremy just came on.
June 8, 2008 7:34 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

Rain has just begun here in Fairway. Wind is also picking up.
June 8, 2008 7:35 PM
 

rkguitarist5 said:

green skies, and twirling clouds in Kearney. Pee size hail also.

*****************

Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:35 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

sorry I brought it up Adam=)
June 8, 2008 7:36 PM
 

simplykristi said:

I am here for awhile....  It's been crazy here.  I had a therapy session with a close friend of mine. LOL

I got some great pics as the storm was coming in.  It's getting ready to storn big time here.

Kristi
June 8, 2008 7:37 PM
 

Maria said:

Adam--one similar caused a spin up in St. Joe last week and Omaha EF-2 last night was part of a bow echo.  I think urging people to be safe and take cover is better than saying "don't worry" nothing will happen.  If it doesn't, it doesn't--but if it does, then they are prepared.  Because these move so fast you can't rely on NWS issued TOR warnings (especially in a non-traditional gustnado situation).
June 8, 2008 7:37 PM
 

boootz said:

1.25 inches of rain when that line moved through Northern Leavenworth, moderate winds, small amount of lightening.

*****************

Thanks for the report!

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:37 PM
 

Turd Fergenson said:

The Radar Pic that was showing looked like a Crab
June 8, 2008 7:37 PM
 

PatsSoxCelts said:

Hey Jeremy, Im here in Parkville, been raining for about 30 minutes now. Is this all the rain we are going to get tonight?
June 8, 2008 7:38 PM
 

Bob from Lawrence said:

Quiet has returned and the rain has ceased.  So put me down for 1.8" for my little corner of the world.

Also from the sound of things on my scanner their is a fair amount of street flooding taking place in all the ususal spots in this particular burg.

For anyone that may be looking at the rain totals on my web page, well they will be off as between the lighting and power outages (despite surge protection and battery backups) my datalogger became confused and deceided to stop counting during the fun part.
June 8, 2008 7:38 PM
 

StormWyndd said:

I haven't been keeping up on the blog the past couple hours, been doing chores, and as soon as I posted I also read Adam's comment.  Let me add that the area I was watching dissipated and morphed into just rolling clouds without rotation.

I saw NO funnels folks, so please don't anyone get excited.  Just telling yall what I saw.
June 8, 2008 7:39 PM
 

farmgirl said:

Surprised that all this severe weather is being produced when we were in just a slight risk.

***************

Not all that uncommon to have lots of t-storm warnings in a slight risk area.

Jeremy

June 8, 2008 7:39 PM
 

jacob said:

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING.
June 8, 2008 7:41 PM
 

FairwayMed said:

I am getting very heavy rain now in fairway and large gusts of wind. Wish I had some way of knowing how strong the wind actually is.
June 8, 2008 7:41 PM
 

kurt said:

Jeremy, I escaped all the strong winds, we may have had 50 mph wind gusts but this again was nothing like storms in years past.  Just under 2/3 of an inch total in the rain gauge.  It's not bad, but this time of year it's nice too see 1 to 2 inches a week before the heat of summer sets in.

That will at least keep the garden and plants watered for a couple days, maybe hold out until the next rain chance.
June 8, 2008 7:41 PM
 

simplykristi said:

High winds here...  Have no idea of the speed.

Kristi in south Raytown
June 8, 2008 7:42 PM
 

NorthlandGirl said:

Jeremy, I didn't get a chance to measure before they melted on the deck, but in the eyes of a 9 year old they were "Milk Dud sized".  I know that won't fly for NWS, but that's what he was reporting to his Papa on the phone a bit ago.  

Just hit the 1 inch mark in the gauge here with light steady rain still falling.  
June 8, 2008 7:43 PM
 

RDub said:

Pretty big wind just moved through here near downtown OP. I'd estimate top gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range. Now just some heavy rain, again.
June 8, 2008 7:44 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

the storm echoes are rapidly weakening as the approach Jackson County it looks like
June 8, 2008 7:45 PM
 

simplykristi said:

Stay safe, everyone!  Does anyone have any actual wind measurements in the metro area?

Kristi
June 8, 2008 7:46 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

Jeremy I'm sorry I'll try not to get carried away.=) and thank you for your previous comment!
June 8, 2008 7:46 PM
 

HailJonathan said:

not much going on here at 115th and holmes we had a little bit a wind and then it started raining. I haven't seen any lightning or heard any thunder.
June 8, 2008 7:47 PM
 

Roberto said:

WOW strong winds in NE JoCo just a few moments ago. Boxes blowing tree branches down, no damage. I really hope that noone gets anything worse than I do!
I mean because I really didn't get it bad, I hope noone does!
June 8, 2008 7:48 PM
 

jonkleinow said:

It's interesting that, as I'm watching the Kansas City and Topeka radars on Weather Underground, the Topeka radar is showing much higher returns for my area (60-65 dB) compared to the KC radar, which is showing 30-40 dB returns. Not sure which to trust.
June 8, 2008 7:52 PM
 

jonkleinow said:

"Here" is Shawnee near Shawnee Mission Northwest, by the way.
June 8, 2008 7:54 PM
 

simplykristi said:

The rain is closer to the KC radar site than the Topeka site.  For a really awesome radar, check this one out:  http://weather.kskoellers.com/radar/radarlocal.php  One of the bloggers has this radar set up.

Kristi
June 8, 2008 7:54 PM
 

adogg said:

Wow, it looks like us in drexel could get slammed!
June 8, 2008 7:54 PM
 

auroramama said:

This is almost right on us and the clouds look scary. :( BTW Before anyone freaks out about me saying that this is the opinion of a giant chicken and not anyone who actually knows what they're talking about!
June 8, 2008 7:56 PM
 

JustinG said:

I live in Grain Valley and we're about to get ours.  I'll chime in if anything happens, providing we don't lose power. *crossing fingers*
June 8, 2008 7:57 PM
 

grumpyred said:

Is this it for rain?  Not much where I sit, ran out this a.m. to get rain gauge and hubby didn't get it put up.
June 8, 2008 8:00 PM
 

Chase said:

Some very dark clouds & thunderstorm here in Osawatomie.

June 8, 2008 8:00 PM
 

adogg said:

Really ominous looking here in drexel, starting to get green, louisburg had a report of marble sized hail
June 8, 2008 8:01 PM
 

kvluvalcsens said:

Some really dark clouds and the wind just started here in Lee's Summit
June 8, 2008 8:01 PM
 

LSMOWatcher said:

Out my front window, to the south, it is still fairly bright.  Out my back windows, to the north, it is very, very dark.  Thunder and lightning beginning.  I'm near Longview College.
June 8, 2008 8:03 PM
 

shoedog said:

OK, Leawood 132nd Roe, it has just cut loose with torrential rain.  It was weird, amount 15 minutes ago the wind came in and kicked up, sprinkled then real still.  Now in last 5 minutes heavy wind and rain.  Trees are really swaying, thunder and lightning.

I also noticed that it appears that more rain is starting to build back out in Western Kansas

As a side note, Parkersburg and New Hartford Iowa that got hit with the F5 tornado are now battling flooding.  New Hartford has had to evacuate the entire town and part of Parkersburg is flooded as well.  The Beaver River that runs through the two towns isn't suppose to crest until Tuesday, those people have really been hammerred.  My mother had to leave New Hartford and stay with my sister in Cedar Falls.
June 8, 2008 8:03 PM
 

kvluvalcsens said:

New blog!
June 8, 2008 8:04 PM
 

adogg said:

New BLOG
June 8, 2008 8:06 PM
 

KSCityKitty said:

New blog
June 8, 2008 8:06 PM
 

simplykristi said:

My youngest brother has no power.  He lives at 67th and Raytown Rd.

Kristi
June 8, 2008 8:06 PM
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