Watch NBC Action News HD at 5 & 10pm for updates on possible severe weather and heavy rain for the region!
The SPC just issued a Severe Thunderstorm Watch for part of the viewing area until 8 p.m. The watch includes Kansas City and most locations to the north, and a few couties to the southwest. There is a line of thunderstorms developing that extends from Iowa to around Manhattan, KS. These are the storms that we will watch this afternoon and evening for any possible severe weather. Right now the greatest threat with these storms would be hail and strong winds. Isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out, but the chances are very small today.
Here is a product from the Storm Prediction Center. Notice that the chance of 2 or more tornadoes in the entire watch is low. We will be tracking it for you this afternoon and evening, as this more likely develops into a flooding event tonight.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
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Low (5%)
| |
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
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Mod (30%)
| |
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
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Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
| Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
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High (80%)
| |
The surface observations clearly show the cold front location and also that there is a low in Iowa. With the additional 'twist' in the atmosphere the possibility of tornadoes is higher in Iowa, thus the Tornado Watch has been posted for that area. Look at the temperature and dew point difference behind the front! Relief is on the way for those that don't like warm and humid weather.

Finally, I want to give you an update to the rainfall forecast. It looks like the greatest threat for rain comes in after 6 or 7 p.m. for Kansas City. The latest Powercast has backed off on the heavy rain totals a bit which is good news if that actually happens. The totals are now just over 3" for this event versus the earlier runs showing 5"+. Powercast has also dropped the rain totals for northern areas including St. Joseph...now down to just over 0.50". It will be interesting to see how this plays out but it looks like the heaviest rain may be right near Kansas City and points south and southwest. So my thoughts of 1-3"+ in a band still look pretty good. The area of rain should grow in coverage this evening and that is when the main threat for heavy rain will move into the city.
Jeremy